EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

DoS doesn't know accurately the 140 pipeline. But more importantly what DoS calls demand is NOT a 1:1 relation of approved 140 to 485. e.g. 485 has dependents, and also that 485 needs to be adjudicated before USCIS can make a demand for a visa for that 485.

Theoretically yes everybody can do what we are doing here .. trying to predict. But as far as DoS' operations go ... they have certain rules and framework that they follow. That's all there is to it. Sometimes they will breka their own rules if not bend it to achieve certain policy objectives. So I really feel its futile to predict how far beyond will they move dates. What we can say with more confidence is how far will tehy have to move in order to consume the visas available this year.

That dates is about mar-apr 2007 for EB2.

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Originally Posted by mpurna77

I mean Can't DOS use those approved I-140 numbers to estimate 485 demand then open cutoff dates accordingly with estimated SOFAD. Other than moving dates further into 2008 for EB2 IC then estimate Demand data.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by mpurna77

I mean Can't DOS use those approved I-140 numbers to estimate 485 demand then open cutoff dates accordingly with estimated SOFAD. Other than moving dates further into 2008 for EB2 IC then estimate Demand data.

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mpurna77,
I don't think DOS has ever done this before, but they can request i140 data from DOS. I don't think DOS is smart enough to use this approach!

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Originally Posted by veni001

mpurna77,
I don't think DOS has ever done this before, but they can request i140 data from DOS. I don't think DOS is smart enough to use this approach!

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I think you underestimate the Visa Office in DOS!

They have some very smart people, who given the data available to them, do a remarkably good job.

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

PWMB estimate 7K for 2007 is way toooooooooo high.

I worked for a desi consulting company at that time as a senior manager and I remember that every one in my entire team of 80 people, who had filed PERM in the last minute of July 2007 was able to apply. EB3 PERM approvals were liberal while EB2 were tough to come thru and delayed. Further there were substitute labor available in plenty.

All I can say that those who applied PERM in May 2007 had them in hand by last week of July 2007 and the PWMB may be mainly from June 2007 onwards.

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gcwait2007,
I agree most of the last minute PERMs are EB3.
There are 4k(3k ind,1k China) PERM approval after August 2007 with PD between Jan-July 2007.
Depending on what % you apply this could translate to 4-6 k EB2I&C PWMB demand.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I think you underestimate the Visa Office in DOS!
They have some very smart people, who given the data available to them, do a remarkably good job.

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Spec,
Let's hope we can see them in action moving forward. :)

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

PWMB estimate 7K for 2007 is way toooooooooo high.

I worked for a desi consulting company at that time as a senior manager and I remember that every one in my entire team of 80 people, who had filed PERM in the last minute of July 2007 was able to apply. EB3 PERM approvals were liberal while EB2 were tough to come thru and delayed. Further there were substitute labor available in plenty.

All I can say that those who applied PERM in May 2007 had them in hand by last week of July 2007 and the PWMB may be mainly from June 2007 onwards.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

gcwait2007,
I agree most of the last minute PERMs are EB3.
There are 4k(3k ind,1k China) PERM approval after August 2007 with PD between Jan-July 2007.
Depending on what % you apply this could translate to 4-6 k EB2I&C PWMB demand.

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I think it is possibly true that the 7k figure might be too high - it's a fair point.

The 7k was originally calculated based on the actual split of EB2:EB3 I-485s in the Inventory, based on a known number of PERM certifications.

With the release of subsequent Inventories, I think it is becoming clearer that quite a large number of EB3 applications are actually still at LO awaiting interview. It doesn't affect China as much as India.

The 7k is therefore an absolutely upper bound and is probably too high, as the Inventory probably understates the true number of EB3 I-485 cases.

Even if we said that only 50% of the EB3-IC cases are represented on the Inventory, then the figure only reduces from 7k to 5.5k for PWMB with Jan-Jul 2007 PD and the numbers waiting to file with Aug-Dec 2007 PD becomes 11.7k.

These are still considerable figures.

Also, as has been discussed, the approval time may have depended on which Center was handling the case. If EB2 PERMs were suffering greater delays, that would actually increase the % that missed the boat.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I think it is possibly true that the 7k figure might be too high - it's a fair point.

The 7k was originally calculated based on the actual split of EB2:EB3 I-485s in the Inventory, based on a known number of PERM certifications.

With the release of subsequent Inventories, I think it is becoming clearer that quite a large number of EB3 applications are actually still at LO awaiting interview. It doesn't affect China as much as India.

The 7k is therefore an absolutely upper bound and is probably too high, as the Inventory probably understates the true number of EB3 I-485 cases.

Even if we said that only 50% of the EB3-IC cases are represented on the Inventory, then the figure only reduces from 7k to 5.5k for PWMB with Jan-Jul 2007 PD and the numbers waiting to file with Aug-Dec 2007 PD becomes 11.7k.

These are still considerable figures.

Also, as has been discussed, the approval time may have depended on which Center was handling the case. If EB2 PERMs were suffering greater delays, that would actually increase the % that missed the boat.

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Spec,
I agree, that's a very good point.

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Originally Posted by veni001

gcwait2007,
I agree most of the last minute PERMs are EB3.
There are 4k(3k ind,1k China) PERM approval after August 2007 with PD between Jan-July 2007.
Depending on what % you apply this could translate to 4-6 k EB2I&C PWMB demand.

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I am one of those unfortunate people who could not apply for I-485. My PD is in May 2007 and my labour was approved in November. How can I check which processing center handled my case?

I would also like to thank Q,Teddy,Spec,Veni and others for all of thier inputs.This forum has been a ray of light in the dark for the people like me who do not have a clue about what is happening and what to expect.

I have been itching to ask this question for some time now but I thought it will be off topic here. But now I'm gonna ask anyways

To : Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and other few important members who make this forum so informative for others

What is the future of this forum after your PD becomes current and you get your GC ? Will you loose interest and stop contributing ?

Gaurav

That's a very good question. I have part answer but really its something all of us need to think about.

There is a good possibility that I may get my GC this year with a PD of MAR 2007. I do intend to continue my involvement albeit at a reduced level. I am passionate about this topic. And frankly speaking besides information, I think this forum has given me a lot of friends!

Some of the other contributors are yet to file their 485s. So I would imagine they will be around at least a couple of years. However I will ask teh same question back to learn if people have any suggestions about how to sustain this forum and the quality of discussion it has today. Is there something we could do today?

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Originally Posted by gaurav811

I have been itching to ask this question for some time now but I thought it will be off topic here. But now I'm gonna ask anyways

To : Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and other few important members who make this forum so informative for others

What is the future of this forum after your PD becomes current and you get your GC ? Will you loose interest and stop contributing ?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Gaurav

That's a very good question. I have part answer but really its something all of us need to think about.

There is a good possibility that I may get my GC this year with a PD of MAR 2007. I do intend to continue my involvement albeit at a reduced level. I am passionate about this topic. And frankly speaking besides information, I think this forum has given me a lot of friends!

Some of the other contributors are yet to file their 485s. So I would imagine they will be around at least a couple of years. However I will ask teh same question back to learn if people have any suggestions about how to sustain this forum and the quality of discussion it has today. Is there something we could do today?

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--> I think one of the ways to keep this tradition going is to post a "Guide book" to construct the metrics. Define the sources; limit them to 4-5. Then provide the Excel Macros to the forum members and let someone else step in your shoes.

Fishing tools is the answer :)

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Gaurav

That's a very good question. I have part answer but really its something all of us need to think about.

There is a good possibility that I may get my GC this year with a PD of MAR 2007. I do intend to continue my involvement albeit at a reduced level. I am passionate about this topic. And frankly speaking besides information, I think this forum has given me a lot of friends!

Some of the other contributors are yet to file their 485s. So I would imagine they will be around at least a couple of years. However I will ask teh same question back to learn if people have any suggestions about how to sustain this forum and the quality of discussion it has today. Is there something we could do today?

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I would say just like in corporate world, look for an able junior ( PD in 2008/2009 ) and keep him/her in loop and you be the watch dog...

On the other hand, with you guys doing these kind of calculations... you cant be away from this forum for long time... GC doesnt change the daily habits, one of them is visiting this forum...

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

I hope that the following would be monthly demand data for July 2011 for EB2 category:

Prior to China India ROW GT
1/1/2007 2000 5000 0 7000
1/1/2008 7725 14800 0 22525
1/1/2011 7800 15000 200 23000

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I am expecting that the monthly demand data for July 2011 should be published by next week, which should be about the same figures, as mentioned above.

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Originally Posted by GCDespo

I am one of those unfortunate people who could not apply for I-485. My PD is in May 2007 and my labour was approved in November. How can I check which processing center handled my case?

I would also like to thank Q,Teddy,Spec,Veni and others for all of thier inputs.This forum has been a ray of light in the dark for the people like me who do not have a clue about what is happening and what to expect.

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Thanks a lot for your kind words, I can give you company my PD is in late Jul 2007 and I also missed the golden gate.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gcwait2007

PWMB estimate 7K for 2007 is way toooooooooo high.

I worked for a desi consulting company at that time as a senior manager and I remember that every one in my entire team of 80 people, who had filed PERM in the last minute of July 2007 was able to apply. EB3 PERM approvals were liberal while EB2 were tough to come thru and delayed. Further there were substitute labor available in plenty.

All I can say that those who applied PERM in May 2007 had them in hand by last week of July 2007 and the PWMB may be mainly from June 2007 onwards.

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This is a very interesting piece of information. Leo provided another statistic that the perms from Chicago were being approved in 2-3 days while Atlanta was taking 3 months.

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Originally Posted by gaurav811

I have been itching to ask this question for some time now but I thought it will be off topic here. But now I'm gonna ask anyways

To : Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and other few important members who make this forum so informative for others

What is the future of this forum after your PD becomes current and you get your GC ? Will you loose interest and stop contributing ?

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Thanks for your kind words. This forum really is endowed with some really great contributors Iam just one of them. You are correct in saying that once someone gets GC the involvement may reduce, Iam still far from GC with a late Jul PD and to make matters worse a PWMB as well so definitely I will be there and active for a while. I also started off as a reader on most immigration forums in Sep 2009 watching VB after VB, thanks to QESEHMK for starting EB2 - Eb3 Predictions rather calculations that gave everyone hope that yes something will happen. Also this forum is very strong to be enriched with so many people. We all know a few things but together we may know many if not most of the things. With this said I believe I will be on the forums even after getting GC but for now that day is still realistically far, this is now more of a magnetic passion than anything else.

So here are a few steps that we have already taken.
1. We have created FACTS and DATA section. Which unfortunately doesn't have many hits!!! That's teh raw data anybody would look at to come up with any conculsion.
2. The forum is quite open in terms of what somebody can mention here and name teh source.
3. There is no secret sauce really. The beauty and strength of predictions is in collective thinking and differences of opinion. Its funny when we all look at the same data but arrive at different conclusion. And mind you its not bad. That's the best way to have a prediction.

Having said that, Q&A section, if I am not wrong, lists all the sources. If not then we will create such a question. We will also create a general method to predict.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by pravara

--> I think one of the ways to keep this tradition going is to post a "Guide book" to construct the metrics. Define the sources; limit them to 4-5. Then provide the Excel Macros to the forum members and let someone else step in your shoes.

Fishing tools is the answer :)

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by soggadu

I would say just like in corporate world, look for an able junior ( PD in 2008/2009 ) and keep him/her in loop and you be the watch dog...

On the other hand, with you guys doing these kind of calculations... you cant be away from this forum for long time... GC doesnt change the daily habits, one of them is visiting this forum...

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soggadu, from administrative purposes ... a few people are already playing that role. As far as knowledge goes, that also you can see signficant leadership with other people. Teddy has great sources, Spec has great analysis/perspective/articulation, and veni is a terrific numbers cruncher.

So all in all, i think we are in decent shape even if I am hit by the GC bus!

Like Q and Teddy, my passion for the Immigration system goes far beyond anything it might grant me at a personal level.

I enjoy the number crunching and I enjoy the debate - I won't be going anywhere soon (you can debate whether that is is a good thing or not! LOL)

I look forward to seeing how USCIS and DOS deal with the challenges they are facing and how Immigration legislation affects the system, to name just two topics.

Whilst this is a calculations thread, progress is determined by numerous other factors e.g the economy so the discussions can be quite far reaching.

If there isn't a post regarding sources of information, I volunteer to compile one. If there is, I'll add anything that is missing. Maybe it would be better suited to inclusion in the FACTS & DATA section, rather than as a general Q&A.

All .... now we have added facebook connectivity - which is an optional feature to use. Use it at your own comfort. At the least it allows you to say whether you like a page or not.

Spec .... appreciate your lead. Please feel free to create such a list of sources under FACTS and DATA. I checked FAQs .... its not there.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Like Q and Teddy, my passion for the Immigration system goes far beyond anything it might grant me at a personal level.

I enjoy the number crunching and I enjoy the debate - I won't be going anywhere soon (you can debate whether that is is a good thing or not! LOL)

I look forward to seeing how USCIS and DOS deal with the challenges they are facing and how Immigration legislation affects the system, to name just two topics.

Whilst this is a calculations thread, progress is determined by numerous other factors e.g the economy so the discussions can be quite far reaching.

If there isn't a post regarding sources of information, I volunteer to compile one. If there is, I'll add anything that is missing. Maybe it would be better suited to inclusion in the FACTS & DATA section, rather than as a general Q&A.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

So here are a few steps that we have already taken.
1. We have created FACTS and DATA section. Which unfortunately doesn't have many hits!!! That's teh raw data anybody would look at to come up with any conculsion.
2. The forum is quite open in terms of what somebody can mention here and name teh source.
3. There is no secret sauce really. The beauty and strength of predictions is in collective thinking and differences of opinion. Its funny when we all look at the same data but arrive at different conclusion. And mind you its not bad. That's the best way to have a prediction.

Having said that, Q&A section, if I am not wrong, lists all the sources. If not then we will create such a question. We will also create a general method to predict.





soggadu, from administrative purposes ... a few people are already playing that role. As far as knowledge goes, that also you can see signficant leadership with other people. Teddy has great sources, Spec has great analysis/perspective/articulation, and veni is a terrific numbers cruncher.

So all in all, i think we are in decent shape even if I am hit by the GC bus!

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That's good to hear... I am not sure what their pd's are... Hopefully the farther away from 2007 the better.... But no one can match these guys analysis style and thinking...

learned a lot from this forum, appreciate all the contributors esp Q,Spec,Teddy and veni.
I am kinda GC guru now among my friends, thanks to this site, been referring all of them here.
Anyways v know about Q, teddy PD's, wondering when is spec's? (if u dont mind sharing), eventhough u clarified that u will be here regardless, just curious about how long it took u to get this command over the GC proceedings,,,,

GCU welcome to forum. Appreciate your kind words and the desire to spread this to friends.

While spec may answer your question about PD, it would be useful to learn the history behind why this site came up. I started this as a thread on IV as many of you know. I found out that there were many many knowledgeable people who started contributing what they knew. The collective effort built this thread to 3.5M views in 9 months.

Now we are here and I see the same thing, there are lots of people contributing. They have the right attitude, they are open they respect each other. I think that's the secret to building viewership - collective open and respectful environment. I don't think any one person has intelligence that is far beyond than other people. Its not about intelligence.

Now although I spend my time here, Teddy continues to run the IV thread and I am sure he is doing a great job there. So in essence, all I want to say is don't get worried about whose PD is when and whether this will stop. I guarantee you there will be some people who will pick up the traits and culture from here and either stay here or go somewhere and try to help others. I for one am not obsessed with the fact that people MUST only visit www.qesehmk.org If there are other sources .... by all means ... visit them and enlighten yourself. The objective is to bring clarity to GC process. So whichever way it helps you ... works for us!

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Originally Posted by GC-Utopic

learned a lot from this forum, appreciate all the contributors esp Q,Spec,Teddy and veni.
I am kinda GC guru now among my friends, thanks to this site, been referring all of them here.
Anyways v know about Q, teddy PD's, wondering when is spec's? (if u dont mind sharing), eventhough u clarified that u will be here regardless, just curious about how long it took u to get this command over the GC proceedings,,,,

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gaurav811

I have been itching to ask this question for some time now but I thought it will be off topic here. But now I'm gonna ask anyways

To : Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni and other few important members who make this forum so informative for others

What is the future of this forum after your PD becomes current and you get your GC ? Will you loose interest and stop contributing ?

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Gaurav

That's a very good question. I have part answer but really its something all of us need to think about.

There is a good possibility that I may get my GC this year with a PD of MAR 2007. I do intend to continue my involvement albeit at a reduced level. I am passionate about this topic. And frankly speaking besides information, I think this forum has given me a lot of friends!

Some of the other contributors are yet to file their 485s. So I would imagine they will be around at least a couple of years. However I will ask teh same question back to learn if people have any suggestions about how to sustain this forum and the quality of discussion it has today. Is there something we could do today?

---

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Like Q and Teddy, my passion for the Immigration system goes far beyond anything it might grant me at a personal level.

I enjoy the number crunching and I enjoy the debate - I won't be going anywhere soon (you can debate whether that is is a good thing or not! LOL)

I look forward to seeing how USCIS and DOS deal with the challenges they are facing and how Immigration legislation affects the system, to name just two topics.

Whilst this is a calculations thread, progress is determined by numerous other factors e.g the economy so the discussions can be quite far reaching.

If there isn't a post regarding sources of information, I volunteer to compile one. If there is, I'll add anything that is missing. Maybe it would be better suited to inclusion in the FACTS & DATA section, rather than as a general Q&A.

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Sorry folks,I am on travel this week with limited access to internet.

Irrespective of GC i will be contributing, what i can, with my limited knowledge. So don't worry i am not going anywhere.

lets get back to what we are good at....

So we have around 12K( Including dependents) cases which are not accounted for in the current inventory from Jan 2007 till Dec 31 2007 right... So... what are the chances that dates can move past Aug 01 2007 in this scenario before the end of this FY?


Also, Spec/anyone can you please post those charts indicating EB2 approvals so far last month and this month? i would like to see the numbers...

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Originally Posted by soggadu

lets get back to what we are good at....

So we have around 12K( Including dependents) cases which are not accounted for in the current inventory from Jan 2007 till Dec 31 2007 right... So... what are the chances that dates can move past Aug 01 2007 in this scenario before the end of this FY?


Also, Spec/anyone can you please post those charts indicating EB2 approvals so far last month and this month? i would like to see the numbers...

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They are always available here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...011-vs.-FY2010 in the FACTS & DATA section.

I try to update them on at least a daily basis, but since they are edits, they won't show up as updated. You have to look.

EB2-ROW at the end of May (with a few stragglers probably yet to appear) has reached this stage:

EB2-ROW --------------------- Cum. --- Cum. ----------------- Cum. ------ Oct ------- Oct
---------- FY2010 - FY2011 - FY2010 - FY2011 ----- % --------- No. ----- Adj % ----- Exc %
May ---------- 36 ----- 58 ---- 361 ---- 362 -- 100.28% --- 16,406 --- 116.03% --- 120.66%

EB2-INDIA

EB2-INDIA ------------------- Cum. --- Cum. ----------------- Cum. ------ Oct ------- Oct
---------- FY2010 - FY2011 - FY2010 - FY2011 ----- % --------- No. ----- Adj % ----- Exc %
May ----------- 3 ---- 158 ---- 262 ---- 350 -- 133.59% ---- 5,110 --- 187.17% --- 216.43% Increase in May of 2,216 visas over April

If you mean the actual chart, I posted previously, I think the forum will get messy if I keep posting those. I might consider adding it to the thread above, but it means uploading files on a regular basis, something I would rather avoid.

As a one off, here is the daily breakdown of EB2-I approvals in May (to date) :

01-May -- 0
02-May - 14
03-May - 23
04-May - 19
05-May - 14
06-May -- 2
07-May -- 0
08-May -- 0
09-May - 14
10-May -- 7
11-May -- 9
12-May -- 7
13-May -- 8
14-May -- 4
15-May -- 2
16-May -- 2
17-May -- 3
18-May -- 3
19-May -- 2
20-May -- 2
21-May -- 0
22-May -- 0
23-May -- 2
24-May -- 2
25-May -- 0
26-May -- 6
27-May -- 6
28-May -- 0
29-May -- 0
30-May -- 2
31-May -- 5

Total - 158

http://icert.doleta.gov/#fragment-2

PERM Processing Times (as of 05/31/2011)

Analyst Reviews - April 2011
Audits - July/August 2010
Appeals - October 2008 (Now renamed Reconsideration Requests to the CO)
Gov't Error - Current

The progress on clearing the Audit cases is stunning. In the last 2 months the time has come down from 25 months to 10 months. By next month they will be effectively cleared.

We often criticize agencies for inefficiencies, but over the last 2 years, DOL have done a great job in clearing the backlog of regular case and now the audit cases. Praise where praise is due.

Spec, how did you arrive at 4.5K actual approvals for EB2IC YTD. IF you used some factor then what do you think is the margin of error?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

EB2-INDIA ------------------- Cum. --- Cum. ----------------- Cum. ------ Oct ------- Oct
---------- FY2010 - FY2011 - FY2010 - FY2011 ----- % --------- No. ----- Adj % ----- Exc %
May ----------- 3 ---- 149 ---- 262 ---- 340 -- 129.77% ---- 4,990 --- 181.82% --- 209.29%

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The progress on clearing the Audit cases is stunning. In the last 2 months the time has come down from 25 months to 10 months. By next month they will be effectively cleared.

We often criticize agencies for inefficiencies, but over the last 2 years, DOL have done a great job in clearing the backlog of regular case and now the audit cases. Praise where praise is due.

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I agree 100%. In fact if you notice my posts I have NEVER ever criticized these agencies for their inefficiencies. The fact is they are very efficient and have become even more so. The problem has always been with their interpretation of laws and the manner of execution that always has seemed to hurt EB IC disproporationately.