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It then seems that approvals are happening with the main catch being it will reported late as the online system is not getting updated. So, probably visa numbers are still available and we will hopefully see some forward movement in the Aug bulletin.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Beautifully explained.
and also as I saw earlier too in a post, this is the second approval seen with date in Feb 2007. Which is really close to 8th March 2007. so they are feeling comfortable in approving these later dates, which are coming much later to the nov, dec, jan. I think that's a really good sign, touchwood.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q well said + 1 to Spec. Slowly the approval reports are also picking up which is good news. Iam hopeful of 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007 for the Aug bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Why it has to be Wed/Thu and not Mon?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
This feeling of wait / anticipation is similar to the wait of 12th board exam results when the results would decide whether you would be doctor / engineer or don't know what.
my 100th post...Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Once current i guess they don't follow PD to approve...so cant say for sure...
+ 1 Guys I believe within the cluster that is current they don't really seem to look at PD, it is just the lucky ones they are able to lay their hands on. The real litmus test is most people say that they are approved.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Priority Date Total Cases Pending Approved Denied RFEs % Processed % Approved Average Processing Time
Mar 2007 62 59 2 1 16 5% 3% 2 years 3 months
Feb 2007 67 66 1 0 10 1% 1% 4 years 4 months
Jan 2007 75 74 1 0 17 1% 1% 2 years 2 months
Dec 2006 99 99 0 0 20 0% 0% N/A
Nov 2006 93 86 4 3 10 8% 4% 3 years 6 months
Oct 2006 81 59 22 0 17 27% 27% 4 years 7 months
So we have 8 approvals from Nov'06 - March'07 with probably a few more from later half of Oct'06 for PDs that got current in the month of July. Considering that we are not seeing any email or online updates and all are through snail mail, this probably isn't that much a slowdown in # of approvals. I will assume this number to rise up in a week or so.
Great Point! I second this. However, as long as we hear approvals ticking, we should be good :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Hi all, been following this forum for few weeks and its a great forum and excellent analysis, good job all GC Gurus :), my question - what is the normal trend for approval for the period in which it becomes current, is 8 normal (from pch053) or its lesser than normal....
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Guys I checked the I485 tracker, ordered by I485 approval / denial date with filters category = EB2 and country of chargeability = India there are only 2 approvals in Jul 2011 viz. vkkkantssv, atlperm1. Looks like something is definitely wrong with the online systems. Just saw another approval on IV - "nuvikas", he checked from the service centre.Quote:
Originally Posted by neospeed
check the trend analysis in facts and data section... spec has the data day by day for last 3 months...Quote:
Originally Posted by sswaitinggc
Teddy
Just playing devil's advocate....
Even if something is wrong with USCIS/DOS systems.... what's teh problem with people updating trackitt once they get notification from their attorney?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Here is my take on the rate of approvals for this month and date movement. Please feel free to correct me....
Rate of Approvals - USCIS and DOS know the demand and supply of the visas. They have about 3 months to use up all the visas which they plan to do but they dont plan/cant approve the people who became current right away because of the backlog they have owing to rapid movements over the last couple of months. They have probably set a deadline of Sept 31st to use up the supply. Hence the approval rate for people this month is low. We may want to check the approval rate overall (people who have become current in May and June) and see if approvals for those people are still coming through. Another point is that people who are calling up are getting responses such as "your case is with an officer ..please call back in 30/60 days"
PD movement - After the movements in May, June and July bulletin, USCIS and DOS have made up their mind for the cut-off dates in Aug and Sept. This movement is strictly policy related.
Regards
Nat
sswaiting,Quote:
Originally Posted by sswaitinggc
It is not normal. Usually we would see the odd approval on the day or day after, but it usually takes about a week for most approvals to come in for a particular date.
I think the on-line system being down is probably to blame.
The number of approvals towards the end of June is also lower than I would have expected, possibly for the same reason.
Until on-line notifications come back up, the delay may stretch to a couple of weeks.
Q if everyone updates their status then it would be great service to those of us waiting because it helps to increase visibility and traceability and helps us the project better a certain percentage 10-20% normally don't update historically. I see 2 categories a) Snail Mail to Attorney (Approval Notice) / Snail Mail (GC) to the applicant b) Checking with Service Centre. Now we may say that the long weekend caused the slow start but we had a long weekend last year as well, most of the approvals are from category a) which I believe will pick up next week considering mail delivery may take 4 business days, not all people have been able to reach level 2 IO's so category b) numbers are lower. As part of all the research (Refer my discussion with Veni) we can see a trend that even though the number of people current are more this time, the number of cases on Trackitt is less, so we should expect 1/3rd to 1/4th reports on Trackitt. However even after applying all the drastic scenarios we just have 2 approvals on Trackitt that leads me wondering, the situation definitely is still bad and needs to improve I hope by the next bulletin. The online systems definitely are not working.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I looked up the data from trackitt for same time but last year:
485s_Approved Date
28 07/01/2010
26 07/02/2010
0 07/03/2010
1 07/04/2010
0 07/05/2010
14 07/06/2010
37 07/07/2010
34 07/08/2010
Thanks for this compilation, only a complete failure of the online system assuming numbers are available can justify this.Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
I proposed this theory a while back that their IT systems maybe down, never thought it maybe closer to reality as much.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I saw this post by a user on trackitt, reading which shows that there is great chance above is true, they say they are getting tons of calls from people.
"I called USCIS and the customer rep. clearly told me that they are not going to transfer calls to Tier2 because apparently they have been inundated with calls all day asking them to transfer to tier 2. All she said is she can open an SR which I had already done on July 1. She did look at the details of that SR and tell me that the case has been transferred to a service center but no officer has been assigned to it yet to look at it. I was glad that she was able to give me that information. I think now I am going to wait until July 29 before I call them again. I absolutely felt guilty for calling them and bothering them and/or wasting their time because she kept repeating over and over that they have been getting calls all day asking for transfer to tier 2. I was very polite and she was too but she just kept repeating the same things over and over. I felt sorry for the woman.
Good luck to everyone. I think I am just going to take it easy now and drink my cup of chai :)!"
Teddy, apologize if this has been answered before...but did your numerical analysis had the assumption that all the cases before this date range have been adjudicated a visa number? Certainly you can see that there are a lot of people who've not been approved from 2006 and before in EB2 category. I am assuming that's because their 485 had some delays due to either background-check/finger-printing/medical etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Also, there isn't any way to know how many of the visa numbers have already been allocated thus far this FY, correct?
I just did a simple test to check if all cases are preadjudicated positively. Just check how many EB2I cases are approved this year on trackitt and what %is denied.
The result is less than 1% denials for all EB2I approvals this year. Of that one case is a clear mistake on behalf of USCIS and the other is a possible mistake.
So in nutshell, there is 99% chance that every backlogged EB2IC case is positively preadjudicated and all one has to do is sit back and wait to become current.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pg_at_q
Hey Q, thanks for replying. You are doing a great service to our community!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Actually my question was not probing denials of 485's, but just that I see a lot of cases in 2006/07 which are possibly pre-adjudicated but not approved for green card yet. This could becoz these people are stuck with namecheck/background/finger-printing etc. It may be likely that they may be given a visa number this year, or it's possible they are not.
For the case they are not, i.e they are not adjudicated, wouldn't DoS have to move dates farther so the next guy in queue who has everything ready can be adjudicated?
My question to Teddy was if these kind of cases were included in his numerical analysis.
I guess someone answered this question of yours a few pages back. I believe the answer was that in such cases, these particular visa numbers may get wasted. Gurus, please correct me if I am wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pg_at_q
Let wait to hear from Teddy then.
But generally this number would be miniscule. I wouldn't worry about it. These numbers would already be factored into the dates movement, so I wouldn't count on any upside because of tehse kind of cases.
p.s. - A lot of people here are helping by sharing. I am also doing my bit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pg_at_q
I would tend to disagree that the numbers will be wasted. Its hard to imagine with ssuch a large preadjudicated backlog any number will be wasted.Quote:
Originally Posted by haripathhi
Q.. any news from your source... on date movement. Thanks!
People who have received approvals/cards etc have started updating trackitt I-485 tracker. Good to see that.
The status update system of emails/sms etc seems to be out of service for now.
Q has replied that visa bulletin will come on next wed/thuQuote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
I came across this website while searching for details on VB's and was amazed to see the amount of data you guys have up here.. Amazing!!
PD in Jan 2008.. Waiting to see some light at the end of the tunnel :-)
Great job you guys.. Specially Q :-)
Trackitt is now showing 6 approvals for EB2 India on 7/1/2011.
Guys - now that EB2 PDs are moving fast - it has made me join my first immigration forum and I found this one to be the most informative and accurate..Great work guys.
Now the million dollar question - My EB2 PD is Feb 27, 2008 - Should I expect something +ve before the end of FY 2011?
Question to Q: Has the source commented on probable date movement?Quote:
Originally Posted by cbpds1
Plus, there is at least 1 (maybe 2) person without a trackitt profile that posted in one of the threads saying that s/he has gotten I485 approval in July. Lets hope for more approvals in the coming week.Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
As of late Thurs (7/7) evening, 8 approvals in trackitt for 1st July + a couple of cases (with no trackitt profiles) reported in separate threads + 3 (or more) approvals reported separately in IV.
Vipul,Quote:
Originally Posted by vipulgupta470
Please read few pages back or the header. As mentioned earlier few times by Q and others, it is difficult to give response to individual cases.
That was quite a disappointing reply to my first ever post..and you spent few minutes in saying I dont want to answer..you could have not answered instead..
I have already read 146 pages but still would have liked someone (preferably gurus) to reply if they ever get a chance..else pls ignore!
Jo chauka udta jai use chakka kehte hain(courtesy Aamir Khan). Problem is we dont know if its going to be a chauka. If it is, chakka to Q1 2008 is possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by vipulgupta470
you are a "guru" for me ssvp22..thats what we all want to hear..even if it doesnt happen :-)
most of the approvals in July are from TSC ,so may be the trackitt is not getting updated :-) , if TSC is approving dates from oct to feb, the other service center should also catch up. is it not ?
Vipul,
If you are extremely lucky you might be current this FY. We are all anxious as your are.
To be more precise for your understanding:
-With the numbers available for this FY (based on the experts' calculations in this forum) USCIS can easily come close to June or Aug 2007 PDs. As per Q this range could be anywhere between June-August 2007.
- If at all USCIS/DOS decides to build an inventory for the next FY they might ('they might') advance the dates into first quarter of 2008. This has to be taken with a grain of salt, it is upto their policy to decide if they would move dates well in advance and have applications and have them ready for the next FY (reg numbers + Spill Overs) or if they would only move it slowly in the next FY or wait until the 3/4Q of next FY before they advance the dates.
We believe and hope that 'they might' want to build an inventory for the next FY for the reason that they don't have enough numbers to calculate the demand data post July 2007. To ensure that they don't waste any numbers ( regular numbers+spillover numbers if any) next FY and to coordinate efficiently with DOS to move dates they need to build an inventory for themselves. But again this purely at their discretion. One other point that added fuel to this duscussion is the NVC notices that were sent to people (who opted for CP processing) with PD of April 2008 and in one case June or Oct of 2008.
Hope this helps answering your question and expectations. We all are in the same boat as yours. Good Luck.
-Sandy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vipulgupta470
Nope. Nothing yet. But I think Teddy Spec and of course myself are in agreement that probably 8K is what is left and so may be Jun 2007 should be quite possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by belmontboy
Since you read 140 odd pages (!!) - there is some probability the date will current in Sep 2011 but a very good probability that it will be current in Oct 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by vipulgupta470
I saw lots people joining today. Welcome everybody. Just a small request - if you want to acknolwedge this forum then please feel free to do so. But when people acknowledge me personally its a bit awkward since neither this work nor the work we did at IV was an individual effort. Probably I should change the name of the website. Please feel free to send me suggestions.