EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by incredible

Hi All

My PD is 02/2010 EB2. Today I have received RFE for medicals, G-325 and Supplement J.

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Hi,

I saw some people on Trackitt as well informing that they received such queries. I am guessing you already have an EAD correct? And on Trackitt the response was that this is supposed to be an automated query which happens when the medicals submitted earlier expire.

Can you please tell me that whether this is the case with you as well?

My interest in wanting to know this is that, I am PD July 2010 and I am desperately waiting for dates to move forward (and per earlier comments on thread, it is very unlikely that the dates will move forward that much) :-(

Thanks.

USCIS appears to have published some revised July Inventory figures (kind of, sort of)

They aren't currently appearing on the main page, but can be found here.

They were produced a week after the first set which subsequently disappeared.

They are still pretty useless, but the Indian EB2 figures have returned to something approximating the last good numbers seen in August 2017.

If you want to look at them, I suggest you download them. Who knows if they'll disappear again.

Originally Published EB2-I July Inventory
Attachment 1391

Latest Published EB2-I July Inventory
Attachment 1392

Hi Spec and others,

My PD is 03/25/2009 EB2-I, 485J approved on 07/22/18, I plan to change job soon, do you guys think its a good think to do now or wait for GC approval? or will they again ask for i-485j?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

USCIS appears to have published some revised July Inventory figures (kind of, sort of)

They aren't currently appearing on the main page, but can be found here.

They were produced a week after the first set which subsequently disappeared.

They are still pretty useless, but the Indian EB2 figures have returned to something approximating the last good numbers seen in August 2017.

If you want to look at them, I suggest you download them. Who knows if they'll disappear again.

Originally Published EB2-I July Inventory
Attachment 1391

Latest Published EB2-I July Inventory
Attachment 1392

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This update definitely makes sense only if it is the Total USCIS Inventory (not just field offices). The other numbers in the inventory do not make any sense. For example, EB3I has inventory in 2009 (even though USCIS is not accepting the Filing Dates)?

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Originally Posted by harshrk

Hi,

I saw some people on Trackitt as well informing that they received such queries. I am guessing you already have an EAD correct? And on Trackitt the response was that this is supposed to be an automated query which happens when the medicals submitted earlier expire.

Can you please tell me that whether this is the case with you as well?

My interest in wanting to know this is that, I am PD July 2010 and I am desperately waiting for dates to move forward (and per earlier comments on thread, it is very unlikely that the dates will move forward that much) :-(

Thanks.

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Yes. I do have an EAD back from 2012 (filed I485 in 2012). No other changes apart from that. I am not sure why this came now since medicals would have expired back in 2013 itself.

Last week, three of my friends with late 2007 EB 3 PD confirmed they received their GC. They were all April 2018 filers. EB3-I looks like a good forward in 2019.

Based on the inventory if my guess is correct EB3 will pass EB2 dates.

@Harepatthekaintezar

Well. The report says its for Service Centers and Field Offices

The latest inventory has EB3I corrected. No the inventory won't include AOS. It explicitely states 485.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

This update definitely makes sense only if it is the Total USCIS Inventory (not just field offices). The other numbers in the inventory do not make any sense. For example, EB3I has inventory in 2009 (even though USCIS is not accepting the Filing Dates)?

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Based on the inventory if my guess is correct EB3 will pass EB2 dates.

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When EB3 catches up or moves ahead of EB2, then all porting stops. If it moves ahead then we might strangely see reverse porting. In theory EB3 workforce should always be bigger than EB2 but a lot of strange things happen in the world :)

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

EB1C route is L1A to EB1C, not H1B. So, unless they crack down on L1As, the demand will remain.

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Not necessary, if the H1 has been from the last 3 years or so and are managers in India, they can still file EB1C. And I know a few H1 cases where EB1C was file a couple of years go and also greened.

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

Not necessary, if the H1 has been from the last 3 years or so and are managers in India, they can still file EB1C. And I know a few H1 cases where EB1C was file a couple of years go and also greened.

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I agree, I have known couple of H1B’s who have applied in EB1C and greened.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

This update definitely makes sense only if it is the Total USCIS Inventory (not just field offices). The other numbers in the inventory do not make any sense. For example, EB3I has inventory in 2009 (even though USCIS is not accepting the Filing Dates)?

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I guess if this inventory report is accurate (looks more accurate than last couple of published reports by looking at inventory post Jul 2009) FY 2019 will end with PDs in later part of 2009 (Oct-Dec) depending on the SO this year.

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

Hi Spec and others,

My PD is 03/25/2009 EB2-I, 485J approved on 07/22/18, I plan to change job soon, do you guys think its a good think to do now or wait for GC approval? or will they again ask for i-485j?

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anyone??????

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

Not necessary, if the H1 has been from the last 3 years or so and are managers in India, they can still file EB1C. And I know a few H1 cases where EB1C was file a couple of years go and also greened.

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What I meant was, L1A to EB1C is the PREFERRED route. Of course there will be exceptions like you mentioned. But I am sure that most go the L1A route.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Last week, three of my friends with late 2007 EB 3 PD confirmed they received their GC. They were all April 2018 filers. EB3-I looks like a good forward in 2019.

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So, they had their interviews and got greened? That was pretty fast!

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

Hi Spec and others,

My PD is 03/25/2009 EB2-I, 485J approved on 07/22/18, I plan to change job soon, do you guys think its a good think to do now or wait for GC approval? or will they again ask for i-485j?

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You are so close yet far. Only CO knows whether he is going to hold the EB2I dates at before 15MAR09 or move it immediately in Oct. You will know the visa bulletin movement in a week. I would probably wait, but the fact that you are posting this shows that you are willing to take a chance and move on with the next job.

I thought it might be useful to put the USCIS Inventory figures into some kind of historical context, since that might help people with deciding about their veracity.
Attachment 1394

FWIW these would be my thoughts.

You can see that in recent times, the figures have been rather changeable.

Despite the title of the latest figures saying it includes Field Office cases, they clearly do not. The obvious clue is that there is no data for cases beyond early March 2017 for EB1-EB3.
That neatly coincides with the March 7 2017 cutoff date for cases that now have mandatory interview requirements. Perhaps USCIS is playing word games and it includes a few at Field Offices, but none at NBC. It doesn't really matter.

The only figures remaining that have any semblance of usefulness are those for EB2-I. That is the only group remaining that has significant numbers of I-485 cases submitted before March 7 2017.

No other figures can be considered even remotely complete and are therefore useless to predict upcoming demand.

I've also highlighted the recent inconsistencies in the PD Year figures for EB2-I. Although I've only shown the relatively recent past. Those figures hold true pretty much all the way back to when EB2-I reached 01MAY10 for a short period in 2012 and FAD movement over the time since.

Spec

Do you think the filing dates(even if USCIS doesn't honor it) will give a clear picture of where EB2 and Eb3 INDIA will land by end of FY 2019?

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

Spec

Do you think the filing dates(even if USCIS doesn't honor it) will give a clear picture of where EB2 and Eb3 INDIA will land by end of FY 2019?

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Gurus

My i-140 was approved via consular processing route. My understanding is that priority date for me would be determined by chart b (Filing dates). Can you please comment if its not correct?

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Originally Posted by GCkaLADDU

Gurus

My i-140 was approved via consular processing route. My understanding is that priority date for me would be determined by chart b (Filing dates). Can you please comment if its not correct?

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As it says in every VB:

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This bulletin summarizes the availability of immigrant numbers during [whichever VB month it is] for: “Final Action Dates” and “Dates for Filing Applications,” indicating when immigrant visa applicants should be notified to assemble and submit required documentation to the National Visa Center.

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and

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B. DATES FOR FILING FAMILY-SPONSORED VISA APPLICATIONS

The chart below reflects dates for filing visa applications within a timeframe justifying immediate action in the application process. Applicants for immigrant visas who have a priority date earlier than the application date in the chart below may assemble and submit required documents to the Department of State’s National Visa Center, following receipt of notification from the National Visa Center containing detailed instructions.

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

Spec

Do you think the filing dates(even if USCIS doesn't honor it) will give a clear picture of where EB2 and Eb3 INDIA will land by end of FY 2019?

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Not necessarily.

I know it's not my most helpful reply, but only CO knows that and other considerations may be at play in FY2019.

Is CO going to take into account potential reverse porting or not? for instance.

I was trying to get a handle on numbers of cases that may be at Field Offices.

The last reporting by USCIS was for the end of Q2 FY2018. This is fairly analogous to the April 2018 Inventory.

According to the USCIS report there were 115,084 Employment based I-485 at Service Centers and 47,591 cases at Field Offices. That's a total of 162,675 pending cases, a number also used in another Q2 report.

The USCIS Inventory showed 48,190 Employment Based cases. This infers that there are another 114,485 cases not shown in the USCIS Inventory i.e the USCIS Inventory was only showing about 30% of total cases USCIS admit are pending.

If you net off the EB2-I cases, which are probably fairly accurate, then the total drops to 26,492 shown in the Inventory out of 144,977 total cases pending (those other than EB2-I), or just over 18% of total cases USCIS admit are pending.

All in all it's a total CF.

New Inventory:

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/..._July_2018.pdf

Pending Inventory stopped being a useful tool for predictions long time back. I don't see any logic for 2009 numbers showing up in EB3I Inventory.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Pending Inventory stopped being a useful tool for predictions long time back. I don't see any logic for 2009 numbers showing up in EB3I Inventory.

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May be this explains. Looks like they are making the same errors again.

https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/ques...-485-inventory

Q: Why were there pending cases listed with priority dates after August 2007 when the Visa Bulletin priority dates was never beyond August 2007?

A: We have reviewed the source data for the inventory and have determined that a number of errors contributed to the appearance of cases with a 2008 or 2009 priority date in countries and preferences for which the priority date has not advanced beyond 2007 in the DOS Visa Bulletin. First, several of these cases had more than one approved I-140, and, rather than list the case by the earlier priority date, we erroneously listed the case by the later priority date. Several more cases were cross-chargeable to a non-retrogressed country but were listed under the retrogressed country. Finally, a handful of cases involved simple data-entry errors.

Interesting answer, but why this error/cross-charge is applicable only for EB3-I, why it didn't happen to EB2-I.

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Originally Posted by siriyal75

Interesting answer, but why this error/cross-charge is applicable only for EB3-I, why it didn't happen to EB2-I.

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Don't know. Maybe because of porting from EB3 to EB2?

If the pending inventory was calculated during July first week, then we can remove Dec/Jan/Feb and half of the march numbers from the inventory.

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Originally Posted by siriyal75

Interesting answer, but why this error/cross-charge is applicable only for EB3-I, why it didn't happen to EB2-I.

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This could be due to primary applicants in EB2-I using cross chargeabilty of spouse from country of birth of ROW.

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Originally Posted by altek001

This could be due to primary applicants in EB2-I using cross chargeabilty of spouse from country of birth of ROW.

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If you could use the cross chargeability then you would use it Day 1 itself and not wait for portability as most countries are current. So my understanding is these should not even come up.

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

If the pending inventory was calculated during July first week, then we can remove Dec/Jan/Feb and half of the march numbers from the inventory.

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I dont think so, it must be end of July as the approvals for 2009 started in July. if you see trackitt approvals there are 44 approvals in July which is like 44*15=660.

The pending inventory in Jul 2018 report against the Aug 2017 report is far less in all categories. I would assume that this would mean faster advancement this FY.

Gurus... thanks all in this forum to share views info's providing strength that we are not alone in this deliberate immigration process to sabotage dreams of many hardworking intellectuals.. with the hope finding fairness where there seems nonein this process..

My question from the latest published inventory is that while PERM data that Spec had here for 2009 http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attach...1&d=1531511889 shows ~1200 PERM approvals (EB2+EB3) for may 09 .. why is there >1400 pending 485 cases listed for the same month PD just on EB2 I List..

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Originally Posted by mrperfect

Gurus... thanks all in this forum to share views info's providing strength that we are not alone in this deliberate immigration process to sabotage dreams of many hardworking intellectuals.. with the hope finding fairness where there seems nonein this process..

My question from the latest published inventory is that while PERM data that Spec had here for 2009 http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attach...1&d=1531511889 shows ~1200 PERM approvals (EB2+EB3) for may 09 .. why is there >1400 pending 485 cases listed for the same month PD just on EB2 I List..

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Simple answer is that the PERM data would only be relevant to the primary applicant, whereas the I-485 (USCIS Inventory) and CP data (DOS) would also include any dependents the primary applicant might have.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Simple answer is that the PERM data would only be relevant to the primary applicant, whereas the I-485 (USCIS Inventory) and CP data (DOS) would also include any dependents the primary applicant might have.

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Hey Guys - New Joiner here. Have a great site here - which focuses on real things.

Just looking at the attachment here for PERM data - shows more than 16K for EBI 2009. Just seems a bit too high, when compared with the Pending Inventory (which shows about 11K for EB2 for both primary and dependents). Understood EB3 numbers are not known in PI, but I was under the impression the filings for EB3 were not too many. Any thoughts on what could I be missing here?

Q -

I dont want to bloat this good thread with my posts but would like to share a few good experiences that I believe will be useful for our readers. I dont know if I have the privileges to create new threads but here is what I need your help create new threads with.

1. Useful tips for Global Entry Program
2. DOS internal query on H1-B triggered with H4 stamping
3. OCI card renewal with new US passport info.

Especially Point#2 - given the times we are in, my experience will be a good one to share here.

V

I would also like to add that a thread on Transit Visa for LHR Transit (London) will be great. While I was applying I could not get any good info on that. This is applicable mostly for people using EAD+AP for reentry.

Guys anybody can create any thread. Just go to appropriate forum or sub-forum and you will see a button at the top. You don't see a button here because you are already in a thread.

A forum is like a windows folder whereas a thread is a file. You need to go the folder to create a file.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Simple answer is that the PERM data would only be relevant to the primary applicant, whereas the I-485 (USCIS Inventory) and CP data (DOS) would also include any dependents the primary applicant might have.

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Not sure why my previous post on this isn't there, but anyways here again -

Looks like a great forum to share real and useful info.

About the link to PERM data, for 2009 the total approvals for India show about 16K. With dependents that would translate into a number ranging from 30K-35K. This would be significantly higher than 11K Pending Inventory seen in PIs for long time. Even if some numbers can be attributed to EB3 (say atmost 8K), that still doesn't add up. What am I missing here ?