EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Got you.

The mention of 2011 seemed a little excessive. Moving beyond April 2010 was the specific point I was addressing. I think even moving to October 2009 would be more than CO being nice.

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Spec - The reason I mentioned 2011 is because May 2010 is what we already touched in the past. So any date movement between Jun 2009 - May 2010 is unnecessary I think - it doesn't really serve any purpose other than for folks who missed the boat.

Thus any date movement beyond 2010 May - if at all done - will be done to take in more demand and/or on humanitarian grounds to give these guys some relief in terms of EAD and what not. In that case why limit to 1-2-3 months. Then I would expect CO to go all the way at least into 2011 if not beyond.

That was my rationale. But as I said technically speaking CO has no need to move dates at all beyond even Jun 2009.

Q,

It's a matter of scale.

It would take about a further 5k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01NOV09 and cover PD in October 2009.

It would take about a further 12k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01MAY10 and cover the latest cases that could have filed to date.

It would take about a further 27k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01JAN11.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

It's a matter of scale.

It would take about a further 5k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01NOV09 and cover PD in October 2009.

It would take about a further 12k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01MAY10 and cover the latest cases that could have filed to date.

It would take about a further 27k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01JAN11.

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Don't disagree! True.

Too bad... with a Dec 2010 PD.. i was hoping that I will get to file around Sept/Oct 2015 (Late FY2015 or Early FY2016). Looks like it is going to be Summer 2016 (Late FY 2016) at the earliest.

Neways.. lets see how it works out!!

Fingers crossed!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

Nice to hear your mid range thoughts.

Also thinking out loud - it's a long way away yet and much can change.


I would agree. Wherever the actual final Cut Off Date lands the net clearance will do well to reach March 2009.


I think you mean "in FY2015" rather than "in 2010". That is how I have read it.

Not sure I entirely agree.

I think this year is going to be exceptionally good for EB2-I due to the extra FB visas available and the exceptionally low consumption by EB2-WW. I don't think the same will hold true in FY2015 (although I reserve judgement until we see the FY2015 allocation for EB). I think the Cut Off Dates reaching the end of October 2009 next year could be quite a good result.


I agree. he will have a sizable number of pending cases left at the end of FY2015.


To play devil's advocate, CO needs to have sufficient visas available for the COD he moves to. We can discount demand after April 2010 because of the processing time.

All the other cases are preadjudicated and would only need an updated I-693 / EVL in most cases to be approvable. I think the number will be so large, it will preclude any discretion he might have to advance the dates.

Moving the dates beyond available visas also means that people with late PDs will get approved at the expense of earlier PDs. Nobody likes that situation.


Again, I totally agree.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

It's a matter of scale.

It would take about a further 5k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01NOV09 and cover PD in October 2009.

It would take about a further 12k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01MAY10 and cover the latest cases that could have filed to date.

It would take about a further 27k to move from a COD of 01JUN09 to 01JAN11.

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Spec , 5 + 12 is what's in the inventory,however, 27K should not be a hurdle to move the COD, as that number needs to show up in 485 inventory. Until then it's Summer 2011>spring 2012 like scenario?

ps - I was hoping like skpanda that dates would move Early 2015 as opposed to late '15/early '16.

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Originally Posted by dec2010

Spec , 5 + 12 is what's in the inventory,however, 27K should not be a hurdle to move the COD, as that number needs to show up in 485 inventory. Until then it's Summer 2011>spring 2012 like scenario?

ps - I was hoping like skpanda that dates would move Early 2015 as opposed to late '15/early '16.

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dec2010,

I think I made that point in an earlier post.

To cover all existing preadjudicated cases up to 01MAY10 would still likely be a 50-60% contingency on available visa numbers for FY2014. To big, methinks.

I've added stats for approvals per day and breakdown by Service Center for the Trackitt EB2-I July approvals in the FACTS & DATA section.

Hi Spec, Could you please help me in navigating to approval stats post in the FACTS and DATA section. I tried but couldn't a post from you dated 7/4 in the Facts and Data section. The latest post I could find was dated 7/1 under Perm data thread.

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Originally Posted by SONU77

Hi Spec, Could you please help me in navigating to approval stats post in the FACTS and DATA section. I tried but couldn't a post from you dated 7/4 in the Facts and Data section. The latest post I could find was dated 7/1 under Perm data thread.

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Post #2 in this thread.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

dec2010,

I think I made that point in an earlier post.

To cover all existing preadjudicated cases up to 01MAY10 would still likely be a 50-60% contingency on available visa numbers for FY2014. To big, methinks.

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thanks Spec. Clearly, I had missed that from your post.

Got a quick question for experts. Please move this thread to appropriate place.

As per the July visa bulletin, my PD is current (July 2008). I had got RFE for myself and wife and sent RFE info to USCIS on 6/11. I have a very good job offer for a management position in the same field. Most of the job responsibilities matches with PERM. I am waiting for GC approval to join them. I have asked them to give me month's time to join. I am hoping in the next 30 days, I will get my GC approved. I have been working with the sponsoring company for the past 5 yrs. Do you think it will be a problem if I switch right after getting GC? The new employer won't sponsor H1. Worst case I need to join them on EAD and send AC -21 stuff to USCIS. Is that risky?

Thanks and appreciate your help

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Originally Posted by MeraGC1

Got a quick question for experts. Please move this thread to appropriate place.

As per the July visa bulletin, my PD is current (July 2008). I had got RFE for myself and wife and sent RFE info to USCIS on 6/11. I have a very good job offer for a management position in the same field. Most of the job responsibilities matches with PERM. I am waiting for GC approval to join them. I have asked them to give me month's time to join. I am hoping in the next 30 days, I will get my GC approved. I have been working with the sponsoring company for the past 5 yrs. Do you think it will be a problem if I switch right after getting GC? The new employer won't sponsor H1. Worst case I need to join them on EAD and send AC -21 stuff to USCIS. Is that risky?

Thanks and appreciate your help

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Technically you can change jobs right away. As you said, you can use AC21 and move. There's no problem to switch jobs immediately after getting your green card assuming you haven't signed any sort of contract.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Technically you can change jobs right away. As you said, you can use AC21 and move. There's no problem to switch jobs immediately after getting your green card assuming you haven't signed any sort of contract.

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Thanks Viz, seeing your reply.. I wanted to know one thing whcih I was wondering for long time ..
Employers making a contract to stay 2 years after getting Green Card, is it legal ??

August 2014 Bulletin is out.

EB2I CoD -22 jan 2009

http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...gust-2014.html

During the past two months, the India Employment Second preference cut-off date has advanced very rapidly based on the projected availability of "otherwise unused" numbers under the worldwide preference limit. It must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months. A cut-off date does not mean that everyone with a priority date before such cut-off date has already been processed to conclusion. It remains to be seen how heavy the demand for visa numbers by applicants will be in the coming months, and what the priority dates of such applicants may be. Heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly earlier than the established cut-off date is expected to materialize within the next several months, at which time the cut-off date is likely to retrogress significantly.


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Dont know what it means by the statement that not everybody with priority date before the Cutt off date are processed....

From August 2014 Bulletin...

"D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS.

The China-mainland born Employment Third and Third Other Workers cut-off dates have advanced for the month of August, and could do so again for September. There are two reasons for this advance after the retrogression of the cut-off date earlier this summer: 1) The heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly (years) earlier than the previous cut-off date has declined during the past two months, and 2) declining number use in the Family preferences during May and June, combined with updated estimates of such number use through the end of the fiscal year, has resulted in availability of several hundred numbers for use in the China-mainland born Employment Third preference..

During the past two months, the India Employment Second preference cut-off date has advanced very rapidly based on the projected availability of "otherwise unused" numbers under the worldwide preference limit. It must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months. A cut-off date does not mean that everyone with a priority date before such cut-off date has already been processed to conclusion. It remains to be seen how heavy the demand for visa numbers by applicants will be in the coming months, and what the priority dates of such applicants may be. Heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly earlier than the established cut-off date is expected to materialize within the next several months, at which time the cut-off date is likely to retrogress significantly."

DoS when moves the dates ahead - they are a bit blind because they don't always have a complete understanding of how many visas will be requested by USCIS. If they undershot then visas go waste if they overshot then they run the risk of not allocating visas to cases on a FIFO basis.

So generally they try to overshoot just a little. But there always is a risk that not all cases whose dates are current will actually be able to receive a visa.

Hope this helps.

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Originally Posted by eb2mar2008

During the past two months, the India Employment Second preference cut-off date has advanced very rapidly based on the projected availability of "otherwise unused" numbers under the worldwide preference limit. It must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months. A cut-off date does not mean that everyone with a priority date before such cut-off date has already been processed to conclusion. It remains to be seen how heavy the demand for visa numbers by applicants will be in the coming months, and what the priority dates of such applicants may be. Heavy demand by applicants with priority dates significantly earlier than the established cut-off date is expected to materialize within the next several months, at which time the cut-off date is likely to retrogress significantly.


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Dont know what it means by the statement that not everybody with priority date before the Cutt off date are processed....

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

DoS when moves the dates ahead - they are a bit blind because they don't always have a complete understanding of how many visas will be requested by USCIS. If they undershot then visas go waste if they overshot then they run the risk of not allocating visas to cases on a FIFO basis.

So generally they try to overshoot just a little. But there always is a risk that not all cases whose dates are current will actually be able to receive a visa.

Hope this helps.

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It's interesting they chose 22nd. I wonder if it has anything to do with the calculation of exact spillover and september will be cushion to adjust little bit.

I expected they move to 1st of (Jan to Jun) 2009.

Kanmani, I saw that you received RFE, congrats :) hope the dates will go beyond your PD in september

Yes it does...thank you for the detailed response.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

DoS when moves the dates ahead - they are a bit blind because they don't always have a complete understanding of how many visas will be requested by USCIS. If they undershot then visas go waste if they overshot then they run the risk of not allocating visas to cases on a FIFO basis.

So generally they try to overshoot just a little. But there always is a risk that not all cases whose dates are current will actually be able to receive a visa.

Hope this helps.

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So we have 22-Jan-2009 as the EB2I date for Aug 2009 VB. This surely is strange. So here is a theory/speculation on how that might come about (its pure conjecture - so large grain of salt required to be ingested).

Starting Point: 01-Sep-2008 (the PD for July), Ending Point 01-Nov-2009 (assuming all Oct-2009 folks are getting RFE). Assume that this range is to be cleaned up by the end of Oct-2014 (2 months left in this FY plus the first month of next FY, like they did last year). So we have to cover 14 months in 3 steps - so 4.67 months per step. If you calculate ~4.67 months from 1-Sep-2008, you will land on to 22-Jan-2008 since you only have choices of 1, 8, 15 and 22 for PD days. Neat - huh?

By this logic, the PD will be 8 or 15-June-2009 for Sept VB (both are acceptable because of rounding 4.67 months into the 4 options, June 2009 fits with the Spring/Summer 2009 narrative) and 1-Nov-2009 for Oct VB. This will ensure that all the RFEs are taken care of.

@imdeng... nice theory and sounds plausible too. But imho most folks in late-2009 are likely wasting their money on this year's medicals.

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since you only have choices of 1, 8, 15 and 22 for PD days

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Why is 29th not an option?

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Originally Posted by tenyearsgone

@imdeng... nice theory and sounds plausible too. But imho most folks in late-2009 are likely wasting their money on this year's medicals.



Why is 29th not an option?

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From the THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document:

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Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since VO groups demand for numbers under these dates.

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Bacause VBs only use the four day-of-the-month cutoffs - 1st, 8th, 15th and 22nd of the month. For example - 22-JUN-2009 is a valid cut-off date for next VB - but 29-JUN-2009 is not. If it has to be later than 22-JUN-2009 then it will be 01-JUL-2009 - the next allowed cutoff date.

Update> See Spec's reply below for a much better explanation. Saw it after posting mine.

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Originally Posted by tenyearsgone

@imdeng... nice theory and sounds plausible too. But imho most folks in late-2009 are likely wasting their money on this year's medicals.



Why is 29th not an option?

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@Spec and @imdeng .. thanks for the explanation.

PS: I just got text/email for RFEs for both primary and dependent. My theory is that as soon as I posted a message about the RFE on this forum, I got tagged and RFEd!!!. Given my Sept-2009 PD, I feel like it is a waste of money and life-units. Oh well...

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

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Originally Posted by vedu

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

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You are assuming supply i.e. spillover is the same.

FWIW - 2009 demand is indeed less than 2008 demand - significantly so in fact. 2009 is the weakest demand year in recent past I think - and likely to be the weakest for some time since 2010+ has seen higher demand.

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Originally Posted by vedu

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

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I was a bit worried to see the 'word of caution'. It could potentially mean that the 4 month advance till Jan 2009 would not be repeated in the September bulletin. This is going to be a close call. Lets hope we see Jul 2009 in the next bulletin.

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Originally Posted by vedu

Out of curiosity, I looked at last year's visa bulletins to see how far the dates were moved from the August 13 bulletin to the September 13 bulletin. The dates were moved forward by 5.5 months. Now whatever their strategy is, assuming that they use consistent strategy from year to year and also assuming that the demand was similar during the respective time periods, I am thinking the dates may move up to July 08th in the next bulletin. If the 2009 demand is less than the 2008 demand, then the dates might even move farther than July 2009.

There was also a similar "word of caution" in August 13 bulletin regarding the eventual retrogression of the dates in future months!

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http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=2730

"EB-2 India is not projected to advance further, and in fact could be retrogressed within the next several months, when demand is expected to increase."

I really hope this press release is by a paralegal who is interpreting the visa bulletin and is not an insider tip from a state dept meeting.

Gurus, how mathematically probable is it for no further advancement given what has happened so far?

imdeng, i was curious if there is movement in the October bulletin. We know that Jul, Aug and September bring movement to EB2 due to spillover. However does the October bulletin still have spiilover left to consume?

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Originally Posted by imdeng

So we have 22-Jan-2009 as the EB2I date for Aug 2009 VB. This surely is strange. So here is a theory/speculation on how that might come about (its pure conjecture - so large grain of salt required to be ingested).

Starting Point: 01-Sep-2008 (the PD for July), Ending Point 01-Nov-2009 (assuming all Oct-2009 folks are getting RFE). Assume that this range is to be cleaned up by the end of Oct-2014 (2 months left in this FY plus the first month of next FY, like they did last year). So we have to cover 14 months in 3 steps - so 4.67 months per step. If you calculate ~4.67 months from 1-Sep-2008, you will land on to 22-Jan-2008 since you only have choices of 1, 8, 15 and 22 for PD days. Neat - huh?

By this logic, the PD will be 8 or 15-June-2009 for Sept VB (both are acceptable because of rounding 4.67 months into the 4 options, June 2009 fits with the Spring/Summer 2009 narrative) and 1-Nov-2009 for Oct VB. This will ensure that all the RFEs are taken care of.

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I think there will be movement. The reason is that the bulletin said

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it must not be assumed that this cut-off date will continue to advance at the same pace during the coming months.

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I read it to say that it will advance but not at same pace.
I would imagine that the movement should be 1-3 months max i.e. Upto Apr 2009 max.

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Originally Posted by ksur23

http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=2730

"EB-2 India is not projected to advance further, and in fact could be retrogressed within the next several months, when demand is expected to increase."

I really hope this press release is by a paralegal who is interpreting the visa bulletin and is not an insider tip from a state dept meeting.

Gurus, how mathematically probable is it for no further advancement given what has happened so far?

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Usually no - we get spillover until Sept and dates go back starting Oct. However, last year dates stayed up for a couple months and a bunch of folks were issued visas then. There is some debate as to where those numbers came from. We can see a repeat of that again this year. Finish the spillover in Sept and consume some of the next year's numbers on Oct.

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Originally Posted by aquatican

imdeng, i was curious if there is movement in the October bulletin. We know that Jul, Aug and September bring movement to EB2 due to spillover. However does the October bulletin still have spiilover left to consume?

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I am not sure it means anything at all. Its just risk-speak - covering both sides - does not preclude any possibility - just asks to not be too excited. The median interpretation should be in line with yours - there will be movement but perhaps, may be, kind of, not as much as this month.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think there will be movement. The reason is that the bulletin said

I read it to say that it will advance but not at same pace.
I would imagine that the movement should be 1-3 months max i.e. Upto Apr 2009 max.

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"retrogress in next several months" is as useless a prediction as any. We all know that is going to happen. Fragomen has always been on the pessimistic side of the world, as I guess most lawyers are. I wouldn't worry much about this PR.

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Originally Posted by ksur23

http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=2730

"EB-2 India is not projected to advance further, and in fact could be retrogressed within the next several months, when demand is expected to increase."

I really hope this press release is by a paralegal who is interpreting the visa bulletin and is not an insider tip from a state dept meeting.

Gurus, how mathematically probable is it for no further advancement given what has happened so far?

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No, I am assuming that the partial amount of spillover they did not release until September last year with the confidence that it would be surely exhausted in the last month without wasting any visas may be SAME this year. The total amount of spillover may vary from year to year.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

You are assuming supply i.e. spillover is the same.

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Q , it seems like the cautionary tone of the bulletin is in line with your projection.
We might see March 2009 and that's it for the year.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think there will be movement. The reason is that the bulletin said

I read it to say that it will advance but not at same pace.
I would imagine that the movement should be 1-3 months max i.e. Upto Apr 2009 max.

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With the 1st move upto covered 6860 applicants and 2nd move covered 6889*, I am of the opinion that there should be a pattern followed in moving dates and 3rd move CoD is also ready. Is there enough left out to cover another 6900 ?

*upto 31st Jan

Sports,

The Fragoman statement is nothing but the interpretation of comments from the visa bulletin . I think there should be a movement, how far is the billion dollar question.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

The Fragoman update is pretty bad...a real slap in our faces if true.

Looks like the number Gurus are going to have their way again. The predicted range (Nov 2008 - March 2009) is the one where the PD will land. It makes sense to make the large move in August and do a finetuning in September. I am betting this is happening because of massive and massive and even more massive porting.

If we end up at March 2009, the net movement over the past 3 years would be 20 months...not impressive given we have had 20K visas from FB and that the EB1A/B have been very hard to get thanks to Kazarian.

Why are they sending medical RFEs is anyone's guess. However from my end, I still haven't received one and I have read confirmed accounts of such cases on trackitt. Now, I am getting more and more convinced that not everyone will be asked to resubmit. To extend the same logic further, all the RFEs people in 2009 are receiving this year will be kept valid for more than 1 year and be used when their dates are current again.

I also think the date will hold until October. Good luck to all who are current. I am still hoping for some magic in September.

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Mar 2009 is extremely conservative by all standards considering that we already have Jan 22 2009 set. the approval rate especially in the 1st 10 days of Aug is the key as to how much more spillover is possible. You are absolutely right about FB without that things would have been terrible. If the dates can hit Mid 2009 or later Iam pretty sure that the next intake will have to happen Oct - Dec 2015.

So here is one thing to understand. The movement that happened so far - pretty much means all these folks will be greened this year as long as their cases are without any issues. However, the movement that happens in september is going to be larger than truly required. So not everybody should expect to get greened.

My original prediction was not about date movement. It was about getting greened. I am talking about people upto Mar 2009 to expect to get greened. January is already real now. So I wouldn't be ashamed if the March prediction turns bad.

Now based on the bulletin if the movement is 1-3 months then most of those folks should be greened. But if it is much more than that then the prediction is saying that people beyond March should keep their hopes low. I don't mean to dampen anybody's spirits. So i will only be happy to be proved wrong.

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Originally Posted by aquatican

Q , it seems like the cautionary tone of the bulletin is in line with your projection.
We might see March 2009 and that's it for the year.

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