EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Quote:

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

I know Guru's might have taken note of the below but as a FYI, most of the big firms who applied for PERMS either in EB2 or EB3 in 2009 have pulled them back in large numbers because of RFE's instead of replying to the RFE's. Firms like Cognizant, Accenture, Infosys and others. So this could also be a factor to the no of PERM's finally landing with a 140.

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There was big batch in 2008 from a big company(if you are using a PC, u probably know which one ;) ) that were withdrawn after rejection in audit. Some folks are still fighting to keep that 2008 PD but most have re-applied in 2011 and are now ready with I140 approved.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Nishant, Veni & All following are the current approvals of Oct Filers on Trackitt, finally new 485 approvals have started.
Starchaser, Abracadabra - NSC PWMB
Superman123 (Spouse only) - TSC
I believe that the approvals especially for Oct filers should pick up next month once fresh numbers for the next quarter are being allocated and current time being holiday season a lot of people maybe on vacation (Its noteworthy that EAD / AP approvals are coming fast). There have been atleast 10K approvals for the Jul 2007 / Pre Oct 01 filers this year. On Trackitt there are a good number of PWMB cases from Aug that have seen approvals. The Oct filers count should be between 2.5 – 3K hopefully most of them will get approved next month; even RD / ND will be significant besides PD.

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So assuming 2500/month density for apr 07 - jul 07 - 33% or more people missed the boat?

Perms withdrawn and denied were already excluded in the Perm data compiled by Spec/Veni.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

I know Guru's might have taken note of the below but as a FYI, most of the big firms who applied for PERMS either in EB2 or EB3 in 2009 have pulled them back in large numbers because of RFE's instead of replying to the RFE's. Firms like Cognizant, Accenture, Infosys and others. So this could also be a factor to the no of PERM's finally landing with a 140.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

So assuming 2500/month density for apr 07 - jul 07 - 33% or more people missed the boat?

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Keep me honest but I believe PWMB is pre-July 2007 PDs who missed the July 2007 fiasco. July 2007 onwards are not PWMB.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pdmar08

Hi Teddy,
Can you please elaborate a bit on how PD Vs RD/ND will play out? My company lawyers filed on 12/20 though i was ready on 12/1. Not that i want to go argue with anyone, this is for my understanding that i would like to know.

thanks!

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Apps are processed by RD but visas are allocated by PD. It'll be a matter of few days so don't worry about it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Keep me honest but I believe PWMB is pre-July 2007 PDs who missed the July 2007 fiasco. July 2007 onwards are not PWMB.

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Oct filers have PDs of Apr 07 - Jul 07. So they are PWMBs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pdmar08

There was big batch in 2008 from a big company(if you are using a PC, u probably know which one ;) ) that were withdrawn after rejection in audit. Some folks are still fighting to keep that 2008 PD but most have re-applied in 2011 and are now ready with I140 approved.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Apps are processed by RD but visas are allocated by PD. It'll be a matter of few days so don't worry about it.

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Pdmar08, vizcard explained it very elegantly the point is the sooner the application is in and if numbers are available and the dates stay current it has a higher likelihood to reach the hands and eyes of an officer earlier and be approved. If the numbers are available it can just be a matter of a few days.

These things however did matter in 2008 when EB2 I/C moved to 2006 suddenly, the 10% folks who were approved had all filed on Day 1 / 2 of the Jul 2007 fiasco.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

So assuming 2500/month density for apr 07 - jul 07 - 33% or more people missed the boat?

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The PWMB figures were computed by different means earlier, in fact this was the starting point of the great work by Spec and Veni on the perm data. The rough estimate was anywhere from 4.5-5K. The term PWMB meant anyone who missed the Jul 2007 boat, realistically had a PD before Aug 15th 2007. When we see the Jul 2011 filings looks like there are a good number of people even with a PD before 15th Apr 2007 who missed the boat. However people from 15th Apr to 15th Aug were more likely to miss the boat in those days Atlanta was taking 3 months while Chicago only 3 days to approve perms. Most PWMB's belong to Atlanta. So anyone who applied atleast in Jun, Jul and Aug from Atlanta was almost a certain candidate to miss. The 33% factor is a actually an interesting observation you have derived, out of the say 4K it is highly likely that 2.5-3k do belong to Apr 15 to Jul 15th range. We may never see some of the cases inventoried because the approvals have started.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

The PWMB figures were computed by different means earlier, in fact this was the starting point of the great work by Spec and Veni on the perm data. The rough estimate was anywhere from 4.5-5K. The term PWMB meant anyone who missed the Jul 2007 boat, realistically had a PD before Aug 15th 2007. When we see the Jul 2011 filings looks like there are a good number of people even with a PD before 15th Apr 2007 who missed the boat. However people from 15th Apr to 15th Aug were more likely to miss the boat in those days Atlanta was taking 3 months while Chicago only 3 days to approve perms. Most PWMB's belong to Atlanta. So anyone who applied atleast in Jun, Jul and Aug from Atlanta was almost a certain candidate to miss. The 33% factor is a actually an interesting observation you have derived, out of the say 4K it is highly likely that 2.5-3k do belong to Apr 15 to Jul 15th range. We may never see some of the cases inventoried because the approvals have started.

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Not sure from where 4K figure came from. Anyway I am in mobile browsing mode. I will read your post again once I get home.
PS: I remember that our calculation was 6-7K Pwmbs. What's best method to confirm our calculations were correct. Those numbers might give us initial insight in DD theory.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Not sure from where 4K figure came from. Anyway I am in mobile browsing mode. I will read your post again once I get home.
PS: I remember that our calculation was 6-7K Pwmbs. What's best method to confirm our calculations were correct. Those numbers might give us initial insight in DD theory.

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Sun Iam not able to locate that post, probably Veni can help us. As far and as far back as I can remember atleast for my own calculations I have always been using 4.5K (Extrapolated inventor if you see my posts in the 2011 thread). The Jul inventory as such has always been a puzzle thanks to the very high NIW filing from our Chinese friends. This is based on the fact that 50% of Jul and Early Aug filers would have missed out and probably 20-30% of Jun and some from April & May. For a moment if we assume that 8K is the PWMB figure then it would imply that atleast 6K came from Apr 15th to Jul 15th then the perm - I485 conversion ratio would go over 1.

Hello All,

Is there a separate thread where the approvals/Receipts are being tracked?? If yes, could someone point me there.
If not, does any one know what was the case with last known PD that received their Green Card. I am just trying to figure out, if at all retrogression happens (hopefully not), where the dates would be moved to.

Am I assuming wrong when I say if a GC was approved for a PD in Aug 2007, dates will not retrogress beyond Aug 2007 (for eg to Jun 2007).
Please someone clarify.
Thanks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Sun Iam not able to locate that post, probably Veni can help us. As far and as far back as I can remember atleast for my own calculations I have always been using 4.5K (Extrapolated inventor if you see my posts in the 2011 thread). The Jul inventory as such has always been a puzzle thanks to the very high NIW filing from our Chinese friends. This is based on the fact that 50% of Jul and Early Aug filers would have missed out and probably 20-30% of Jun and some from April & May. For a moment if we assume that 8K is the PWMB figure then it would imply that atleast 6K came from Apr 15th to Jul 15th then the perm - I485 conversion ratio would go over 1.

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Teddy,

It's funny how things get lost over time.

Using an OR of 0.8 I know that the calculated EB2-IC PWMB I-485 for the October VB range of April 15, 2007 to July 14, 2007 is 1,980 (China - 353, India - 1,627).

The EB2-IC PWMB I-485 from July 15, 2007 to Aug 14, 2007 is 1,111 (China - 185, India - 926).

Hope that helps.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Teddy,

It's funny how things get lost over time.

Using an OR of 0.8 I know that the calculated EB2-IC PWMB I-485 for the October VB range of April 15, 2007 to July 14, 2007 is 1,980 (China - 353, India - 1,627).

The EB2-IC PWMB I-485 from July 15, 2007 to Aug 14, 2007 is 1,111 (China - 185, India - 926).

Hope that helps.

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Spec, thanks, it really helps. Depending on the OR of 0.8 - 1 the Oct filers would range between 2-2.5K.

Jul (Assuming 50%) = (1747 + 2007 - 1000 (Exclude NIW)) * 50 / 100 = 1377
Assume 50% filed in Oct and 50% in Nov for Jul PD cases.

Jul = 688
Jun = (1296 + 288) * (50/100) = 792
May = (1043 + 546) * (30/100) = 475

This comes very close to 2000.

This is the link to my post fro the 2011 thread, the Jul PWMB figures are higher because I extrapolated from the inventory itself and that had significant NIW.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...11&p=22#post22

With the way things are moving (Approvals already starting) there are good chances that all Oct filers would be greened early next year. With QSP already running surely there will be 2K numbers to allocate towards these cases.

Somehow I reached this thread, and man-o-man, I am so amazed to look at the time and effort had been put and research had been done by so many people. Reading though the thread, initially it is too complex to understand for a layman like me but then there are so many explanations. Wowwww...

Well, can I take this moment to ask a stupid but probably the most important question for the 2009 EB2 I/C filers.

What is the prediction of GURUs for the Feb bulletin on PD movement? I am more of a percent guy regarding predictions. So a percent on different assumptions will also be good.

Thanks guys !!

Gurus, Any chance for Aug 31 2009?

Hello Guru's,

First of all please excuse for posting this here...this is an issue I have and am worrying about it since long.....please do share your thoughts.

Moderators move this thread as appropriate.

Am a Regular reader of this forum and am very much impressed by your valueble suggestions,

Here is my scenario.

I am on h1 since 2006 valid till sep 2009 with I94 till Jan 2009 with company A.

in July 2008 i tried to transfer my h1 to company B, there was RFE and eventually that guy sold the Firm to Company C,
so he did not respond to RFE and so h1 transfer with company B got automatic denial.

now in November 2008 company c tried to transfer my h1 to company c, which was denied in december 2008.

so i was on the payroll of company B & C from july 2008 to december 2008 using the portability law.

now in january 2009 when i contacted Company A, they said they revoked my H1(may not be true)

At last i ended up going back to company A, with I94 valid only till january 2009.

so company A asked for a extension not stating that i had applied for transfer twice, and it was approved till january 2012, and subsequently January 2015.

Company A applied for PERM in April 2009.

and obviously i had 3 W-2's for the FY 2008.

My question now to Guru's is:

i) is that period of 6 months where i was with Company B and Company C on their payroll any cause of concern for me when i file my 485(G325 etc)?
ii) Was i actually out of status (or) involved in unauthorized employment during the said period (July to December 2008)?
iii) Am i eligible for 245(K)?
**) if so what are my chances of 485?
v) if not how will i explain 3 W-2's for 2008 without 3 valid h1's from company A,B,C respectively?
vi) What is the best course of action for me at this point in view of the VB Movement(I may be current next bulliten)?

Any insight on this scenario will be greately appreciated.

Thanks.

The obvious answer is talk to a good lawyer. Everything you get on message boards comes with a big asterisk mark anyway. So you might as well directly talk to a lawyer.

My 2 cents are that you don't need to worry. Typically you are "in status" if you have a receipt. The question marks from my perspective are two-fold
1. At what point was your companyB app denied. Was it before Nov?
2. What is the legal status and procedure if you get one app denied. This is a broader procedural question.

I'm probably muddying the waters more so as i said, talk to a lawyer... ideally the one who will file your 485.

happyimmigrant

How many H1b approvals do you have between 2006 to till date? Who sponsored your GC ?
Are you currently working on H1b? ( it looks like after the first H1b approval everything else is denied)
i) yes
ii)unauthorised employment
iii) yes, with difficulty .
If you have worked without H1b all these years , it will be very difficult to restart your 180 days clock by departing and re-entering . But consult with an immigration attorney to find how to invoke 245(k).

Note: This is not a legal advice

How many H1b approvals do you have between 2006 to till date? Who sponsored your GC ?
Approvals:
Employer A->2006 October to September 2009.(original)
Employer A->2009 January to January 2012.(extension)
Employer A->2012 January to January 2015.(extension)

Denials:
Employer B->2008 July to September 2008(Transfer applied from A)
Employer C->2008 October to December 2008(transfer applied from B)Are you currently working on H1b? ( it looks like after the first H1b approval everything else is denied)

Yes am on H1b with valid I94 from:
Employer A->2009 January to January 2012.(extension)
Employer A->2012 January to January 2015.(extension)
i) yes
ii)unauthorised employment
iii) yes, with difficulty .
If you have worked without H1b all these years , it will be very difficult to restart your 180 days clock by departing and re-entering . But consult with an immigration attorney to find how to invoke 245(k).

Thanks Kanmani,

My question is more towards the Legal status/Unauthorized employment for ~6 month period(July 2008 to January 2009), when i left company A-> Joined company B with transfer receipt notice->Joined company C with another transfer receipt notice-> Went back to Company A-> and got H1Extension approved.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by happyimmigrant

Thanks Kanmani,

My question is more towards the Legal status/Unauthorized employment for ~6 month period(July 2008 to January 2009), when i left company A-> Joined company B with transfer receipt notice->Joined company C with another transfer receipt notice-> Went back to Company A-> and got H1Extension approved.

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Hi Happyimmmigrant,

How long you were working with Company B and C after the rejection and what was the gap once you switched from Company B to C and then to Company A. If you were working with B & C after the denials then that might be unauthorized employment.

My understanding is you can work on the receipts and that's what the Law although you cannot work once you are denied. I have never worked on the receipts so i am not sure if my understanding is correct. Although i will recommend that you get all the receipts/rejections from Company B & C as it will help you in terms of providing explanations.

I am sure you will be speaking to a lawyer. Wish you all the best and let us know how it goes. Thanks

Source : Murthy Law firm

Chat User : Murthy Madam, I started working for the new employer with the H1B transfer receipt number. What are my options if this transfer is denied?

Attorney Murthy : One who starts work based on filing a new H1B petition, per USCIS / INS policy memos and letter opinions, is allowed to return to work for the earlier employer on the prior H1B petition approval if the earlier employer has not revoked that earlier H1B petition and that earlier employer is still willing to offer the person the earlier job. The other alternative when one has failed to maintain status in the U.S. is for the person to file another H1B with a third employer, but then the individual has to travel abroad and reenter on H1B status with the latest H1B approval notice if the earlier visa stamp has not expired in the PP. In the alternative, one must apply for a new visa stamp from abroad and show the latest H1B approval notice at the port of entry to obtain a new I-94 card showing H1B status with the correct expiration date.
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245(K) has the following provision:-
The adjudicator must only examine the period from the date of the alien’s last lawful admission to the United States and must not count violations that occurred before the alien’s last lawful admission.
Have you ever depart USA and entered on valid visa stamp between January 2009 to till date ? If not please try to do so to reset your clock , needless to say pls consult an attorney before filing I-485

Quote:

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Originally Posted by happyimmigrant

Thanks Kanmani,

My question is more towards the Legal status/Unauthorized employment for ~6 month period(July 2008 to January 2009), when i left company A-> Joined company B with transfer receipt notice->Joined company C with another transfer receipt notice-> Went back to Company A-> and got H1Extension approved.

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Kanmani,
I have never exited and reentered USA between January 2009 & till date.

By the way from the quote from Murthy's Chat, let me know what i understand is correct.

if my H1 transfer is denied to Company B & C even though i worked for them untill the denial(I never worked post denial) and if Company A did not revoke my H1, I am not out of status/ unauthorized employment(because i ended up going back to company A)?

RRRRRR:
I did not work for company C after denial(worked only through October 2008 to december 30 2008)
for company B i do not know when the automatic denial is triggred because of not answering RFE, but i did work till early september2008.

Happyimmigrant

My understanding is same as yours .
Eventhen if there is any RFE, experienced attorneys could reply with quoting all clause and subdivisions of immigration laws .
Choose a best immigration attorney for filing I-485 . All the best.

Happy, please consult an attorney ASAP. None of us are lawyers and your case seems complicated.

Spec, Q, Veni, Teddy et al, Would it be possible to look at the PERM databases for cases filed from Aug. 2007 onwards and check off large companies that are no more like Bear Sterns, Lehman etc., eliminate those applications and see if we can construct a demand destruction pattern? of course doing it for IT consulting companies will be difficult. But lets see if we can even see a pattern to begin with.

Gurus,

I am new to this forum. Is there any chance to get eb2 Aug-31-2009 in next 2 months. I have to take some job decisions based on this.

Thank you in advance...

kd
below is the total approved perms / IC total
LEHMAN BROTHERS INC
2007- 75( IC -26 )
2008- 18( IC -9 )
2009 - 40( IC -30 )

BEAR STEARNS & CO INC

2007 - 20( IC -10 )
2008 - 4 ( IC -4 )
2009 - 5 ( IC -3 )

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

kd
below is the total approved perms / IC total
LEHMAN BROTHERS INC
2007- 75( IC -26 )
2008- 18( IC -9 )
2009 - 40( IC -30 )

BEAR STEARNS & CO INC

2007 - 20( IC -10 )
2008 - 4 ( IC -4 )
2009 - 5 ( IC -3 )

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Thanks, Kanmani!

So it seems that PERMs were filed by companies in relatively good standing and those from financially weak were few. Seems logical considering how expensive PERM process is. Sigh! How to understand this demand destruction process?

May be each of us can ask our attorneys about the volume of applications they see for 2008 cases. Do they see all their clients filing I-485? If demand is "low," can they put a percentage to it? Crowd-sourcing is the only way I see forward. It can never be definitive or accurate - qualitative at best. But lets try that.

Sorry for posting this here but I don't see a relevant thread. As part of 485 filing, do i need to complete one G-1145 for 485, EAD and AP all together
OR
i need to complete separate G-1145 for each one of them.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by happyimmigrant

RRRRRR:
I did not work for company C after denial(worked only through October 2008 to december 30 2008)
for company B i do not know when the automatic denial is triggred because of not answering RFE, but i did work till early september2008.

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I think you are ok with company C but in case of Company B since a RFE came you might have to look into the fact that if RFE needs to be responded within certain number of days before the case is considered abandoned. You may want to contact a good attorney and let us know how your case progresses

Good Luck

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eb2visa

Gurus,

I am new to this forum. Is there any chance to get eb2 Aug-31-2009 in next 2 months. I have to take some job decisions based on this.

Thank you in advance...

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I am Aug 2009 as well and I am hopeful we will be current, but have 'prepared' myself if they move the dates only till April. Frankly it all depends on how aggressive CO wants to be to estimate the demand......but the movement could be anywhere between Jan 31 2009 to Jan 2010.

Kd, those were the big firms that we know of. There were several other which went under. Also those firms which took TARP money could not hire people on a visa. This might also have an effect in future PERM FILINGS.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by venkat

Sorry for posting this here but I don't see a relevant thread. As part of 485 filing, do i need to complete one G-1145 for 485, EAD and AP all together
OR
i need to complete separate G-1145 for each one of them.

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Below extract is from the USCIS Website and to me it looks like you only need one 1145.

Special Instructions :

If you are submitting multiple immigration forms for one applicant, clip a completed form G-1145 to the front of the first immigration form of the package. You will receive a separate e-mail and/or text message for each accepted immigration form.

For representatives who file multiple unrelated immigration forms in one envelope, and who want their clients to receive e-Notification, clip a completed form G-1145 for each applicant to the front of their immigration forms package. One e-mail and/or text message will be sent per accepted immigration form, to the person seeking the benefit(s) (representatives are not copied).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Nishant,

I noticed one EB2I case approval updated on trackitt with RD 10/14/2011.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Nishant, Veni & All following are the current approvals of Oct Filers on Trackitt, finally new 485 approvals have started.
Starchaser, Abracadabra - NSC PWMB
Superman123 (Spouse only) - TSC
I believe that the approvals especially for Oct filers should pick up next month once fresh numbers for the next quarter are being allocated and current time being holiday season a lot of people maybe on vacation (Its noteworthy that EAD / AP approvals are coming fast). There have been atleast 10K approvals for the Jul 2007 / Pre Oct 01 filers this year. On Trackitt there are a good number of PWMB cases from Aug that have seen approvals. The Oct filers count should be between 2.5 – 3K hopefully most of them will get approved next month; even RD / ND will be significant besides PD.

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Veni, Teddy, this was very important to know. This shows there is "intent" to approve these cases, not just hold them in pre-adjudicated phase. As far as status inquiries, congress inquiries etc goes, such early inquiries can be easily brushed off by saying processing times, or extended review, etc.

I believe QSP is in full flow, and this looks like CO's strategy moving forward. He seems to want to be one step ahead of the curve. In a classical Queueing data structure mechanism, he is enqueing enough inventory, and at the same dequeing using QSP. The Queue however can only be of a certain size at one time, if it starts getting too big, time to stop. This certain size, we don't know what is in CO's mind, what he is comfortable with.

When the pace of dequeing slows down due to either:
a. Increase in current demand of EB1, EB2 ROW, hence less QSP.
b. Increase in EB2IC demand being enqueued (for eg: due to very aggressive movements like the 9.5 month movement, or higher than expected density in certain date periods).
c. 140 backlog reduction spikes
At that time, EB2IC shall start creeping up in DD, and retrogression may occur.

I feel that current strategy by CO is the best that can be for EB2IC. Also note that I do not believe he uses EB4 or EB5 for any QSP, and the last Q4 of the FY, may lead to a further bonus numbers for us from any SO from these guys.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

As seen on: http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...edictions.html

CM_USNonImmigrants
Fellows update from attorney friend:

"They expect visa bulletin to see some neat movement for EB2-IC in February. I do not understand his definition of "neat" but it can be anywhere from 4-5 month assuming that new definition for "significant" would be 9.5 months. His firm will be filing lot of applications in January (number he thought was around 450-600). He said that attorneys are working hard this winter break, but due to holidays and vacation they do not expect to file many cases in first week of January. His presumption is that it will be similar at other firms and hence January filings will have not any binding on movement for February visa bulletin. He still believe retrogression will happen not before April-May bulletin.

EB3 category they expect at least two weeks movement."

CM - As usual word of advice; take it with grain of salt.

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Thanks nishantbhai !
I need further 6 months movement to get covered....
This is gonna be touch and go...
cow u cow u... holy cow u...
why this kolaveri di.... :(

Another anecdotal example - I know of a couple people in a top US based business consulting company who internally transferred to UK since the company refused to carry ANY GC applications any further in 2009 - even those with approved PERM. They just washed their hands off the entire GC process through one umbrella memo that essentially said that the company will not sponsor any more GCs. They continue to hire H1Bs out of Business Schools but don't sponsor GCs for them.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iatiam

Kd, those were the big firms that we know of. There were several other which went under. Also those firms which took TARP money could not hire people on a visa. This might also have an effect in future PERM FILINGS.

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I wonder whether it is the same CO who is handling the current PD movement - his recent behavior is completely at odds with his long history of ultra-conservative decision making. It all adds up to good news for EB2IC though - so not complaining at all.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Veni, Teddy, this was very important to know. This shows there is "intent" to approve these cases, not just hold them in pre-adjudicated phase.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by krishnav

Hello All,

Is there a separate thread where the approvals/Receipts are being tracked?? If yes, could someone point me there.
If not, does any one know what was the case with last known PD that received their Green Card. I am just trying to figure out, if at all retrogression happens (hopefully not), where the dates would be moved to.

Am I assuming wrong when I say if a GC was approved for a PD in Aug 2007, dates will not retrogress beyond Aug 2007 (for eg to Jun 2007).
Please someone clarify.
Thanks.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by krishnav

Hi All,

Can anyone tell me what was the latest PD for which a GC was approved. Just trying to figure out if at all any Retrogression happens, what could be the possible date as my PD is in Sept 2007.

Thanks.

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krishnav,

The general level of approvals from Trackitt are being tracked in this thread.

Generally, the latest EB2-I Primary approval on Trackitt has a PD of July 31, 2007.

There is one outlier that shows a PD of December 7, 2007 but it is not a "clean" case. Until we see many more approvals with later dates, I don't put much store by that date.

When retrogression happens, it should not retrogress to a date earlier than those cases that were receiving approvals, unless there is a big backlog of earlier cases.

I don't think we are at that stage for a PD of September 2007 yet. Having said that, I think sufficient visas will probably be available in Q2 so that September 2007 would be safe from retrogression, when it is applied.