EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by Monica12

Spec, is Background and Name check already completed for the pre-adjudicated applicants? or is this part of the IBIS check? Wondering because these probably take a long time and therefore, delay the process for the people who are current.

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Not necessarily, as far as I am aware, although it would have been initiated (and completed for the vast majority of applicants).

To be approved, the FBI fingerprint and IBIS checks must have been completed satisfactorily.

If the FBI name check has been pending more than 150 days, the case shall be referred to USCIS HQ for a decision on I-485 approval. If HQ gives a positive guidance after having contacted the FBI, the I-485 can be approved, but is still subject to revocation if the FBI name check eventually returns negative results.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memo...ing-020909.pdf

In the past (from Feb. 4, 2008), all cases where the FBI name check had been pending for more than 180 days could be approved automatically, but that policy was rescinded effective Feb. 9, 2009 as a result of the above memo.

Thanks for the wonderful explaination, Spec!
This wait for VB is excruciating. Hoping for the best :)

Friends user - tspace posted on IV that his / her case is approved. Looks like the attorney received the notice no mention of email / sms. If there are more reports of attorney's receiving notices then looks like the electronic notification systems have crashed as no one is reporting email / sms notifications this may well be the cause of delayed postings and attorneys would receive hard copies via snail mail.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends user - tspace posted on IV that his / her case is approved. Looks like the attorney received the notice no mention of email / sms. If there are more reports of attorney's receiving notices then looks like the electronic notification systems have crashed as no one is reporting email / sms notifications this may well be the cause of delayed postings and attorneys would receive hard copies via snail mail.

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Great news, Teddy. Thanks for keeping us posted....and USCIS.. keep them coming :)

On pre-adjudication: I think there are cases that hasn't been perfectly pre-adjudicated. I can talk of my own case as an example. I know I have incomplete medical reports that I couldn't complete while trying to meet Aug 17th, 2007 deadline. I had send an email to Nebraska Center asking for the status of my application. This is the reply I got from them:

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Good afternoon,

USCIS records indicate that your I-485 is pending and waiting to be assigned to an officer for further review, since the pre-adjudicating process has been completed.

It appears that your fingerprints are now good until January 7, 2012.

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So, they are saying that pre-adjudication is complete even though they don't have all the medical details. I think I will receive a RFE for medical documents when my PD gets current and is assigned to an officer for further review. On the other hand, I do feel that they have all remaining documents in place, like i) I forwarded all AC21 documents and received an acknowledgement from USCIS on the same, ii) my last fingerprint was done on Oct'10 and that being the reason it is valid until Jan'12, etc.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends user - tspace posted on IV that his / her case is approved. Looks like the attorney received the notice no mention of email / sms. If there are more reports of attorney's receiving notices then looks like the electronic notification systems have crashed as no one is reporting email / sms notifications this may well be the cause of delayed postings and attorneys would receive hard copies via snail mail.

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So far, is this the 2nd approval for the month of July in all forums? I think there has been 1 approval in trackitt and 1 in IV.

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Originally Posted by nayekal

07/07/2011: Interesting USCIS Idea on the Horizon to Make a Rule to Allow EAD to H-4 Spouses of H-1B Professionals Working Under AC 21 Sections 104(c) or 106(a)
This is from http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

The USCIS is considering to initiate a proposed rule next March 2012 to extend the availability of EAD to H-4 dependent spouses of principal H-1B nonimmigrants who have begun the process of seeking lawful permanent resident (LPR) status through employment and have extended their authorized period of admission or "stay" in the U.S. under section 104(c) or 106(a) of AC 21 (Public Law 106-313). Apparently this concept is conceived to allow the eligible class of H-4 dependent spouses to work and thereby encourage professionals with high demand skills to remain in the country and help spur the innovation and growth of U.S. companies, and thus allow the United States to remain a world leader in high technology. Very stimulating idea! This may be perceived as an administrative fix of the broken employment-based immigration system. It will certainly help to stop ongoing reverse exodus of these talented foreign professionals, particularly from California, to their home countries. We will watch how far and how fast this concept will move ahead. Please stay tuned to this website for development of this news.

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does this mean that a H4 cannot get an EAD today ? My wife is currently on H1 but she might run out of her 6 yrs before my PD (Aug 2008) becomes current. Her company is not filing for her GC. She is hoping to continue working on an EAD but if she cannot apply for one (through me), then that will be a problem for her. She will have to manage expectations with her employer.

PS: I fall in the AC21 category.

guys... is this something we have already seen?? confued with so much data flying around...

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

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Originally Posted by soggadu

guys... is this something we have already seen?? confued with so much data flying around...

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

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yes, they had it in a different place in the site before (the link is available in facts & data section)

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Originally Posted by bieber

yes, they had it in a different place in the site before (the link is available in facts & data section)

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so now as dates are in Mar 2007 already, they would need just around 7K more numbers to move till end of the backlog going forward and expected is 6-14K still left... makes me wonder why some people say it may or may not cross the previous landmark (Aug 01 2007)....

Below from trackitt:

Finally got the good news. My attorney recieved the welcome/approval notices for me and my wife today in the mail. Here are the details:

PD Dec 1 2006
EB2
TCS
Receipt Date Sept 17, 2007
FP Once in 2007
No RFE
Online Status: Initial Review

I have been reading and getting useful info from this forum. Thanks you all. I will be happy to answer any questions.

Guys,

might be a very basic question on EB2 - I.

USCIS knows the demand till August 2007. But they have I 140 data after Aug 2007.
So can they use that data to know approximate demand and move dates accordingly.

Thanks,

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Originally Posted by soggadu

so now as dates are in Mar 2007 already, they would need just around 7K more numbers to move till end of the backlog going forward and expected is 6-14K still left... makes me wonder why some people say it may or may not cross the previous landmark (Aug 01 2007)....

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One reason : PWMB & Porting

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Originally Posted by soggadu

so now as dates are in Mar 2007 already, they would need just around 7K more numbers to move till end of the backlog going forward and expected is 6-14K still left... makes me wonder why some people say it may or may not cross the previous landmark (Aug 01 2007)....

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soggadu,

7k sounds about correct for India.

Once you add in China as well, the figure is about 11k.

As has been pointed out, that doesn't include any PWMB or Porting cases that can also be approved.

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

does this mean that a H4 cannot get an EAD today ? My wife is currently on H1 but she might run out of her 6 yrs before my PD (Aug 2008) becomes current. Her company is not filing for her GC. She is hoping to continue working on an EAD but if she cannot apply for one (through me), then that will be a problem for her. She will have to manage expectations with her employer.

PS: I fall in the AC21 category.

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In your case.......
Your wife is on H1 and you are using AC21. So there is no question arising of she converting from H1 to H4 ever, because she cannot !
Unless you get current, she will have to stop working after usage of 6 years of H1. Even worse she might have to go out of US between the period of her H1 expiration and 485 application(because H4 is not an option for her - as you are no longer on H1).

Best thing is to change to employer who could file for her PERM seperately... that way she can keep working on H1 until you file 485 for her.
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Delayed bulletin isn't really a bad thing, no?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

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Q,

Delayed is ok.
But did your source get to feel the vibes in DOS ?
Thanks.

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Originally Posted by pch053

So far, is this the 2nd approval for the month of July in all forums? I think there has been 1 approval in trackitt and 1 in IV.

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Another one user - hotscud21 on IV reported that he received the cards directly (case in Initial Review :)), looks like nobody is receiving email / sms notifications. I hope these reports pick up in volume soon.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

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Q the bulletin coming late is probably a good sign, I believe they are themselves trying to assess how many cases are getting closed before publishing the VB. Right now by all standards the approval volume is way too low. I sincerely hope it picks up.

My brother n sis in law has received their GCs today in mail. Online status was not updated neither did he get any SMS or emails.
His PD was 15 Feb 2007. He applied his 485 during Jul 07.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Another one user - hotscud21 on IV reported that he received the cards directly (case in Initial Review :)), looks like nobody is receiving email / sms notifications. I hope these reports pick up in volume soon.

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I hope these approvals keep coming. If people are only receiving snail mails, then we will probably see more approvals from next week onwards as it will take at least 3 - 4 days to reach the lawyer. I wonder why there are no emails and updates in online status!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

soggadu,

7k sounds about correct for India.

Once you add in China as well, the figure is about 11k.

As has been pointed out, that doesn't include any PWMB or Porting cases that can also be approved.

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Spec... i have been arguing this point from last couple of months... IMO pwmb doesnt matter as they stand no chance of getting into the system this FY and i believe the same with the new porting applications... i also feel porting is not a big issue any more as more people applied for EB2 after 2007 and majority of the porting cases are already in... so porting is no more a big devil and we can comfortably ignore it...

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Originally Posted by 08OCT2008

My brother n sis in law has received their GCs today in mail. Online status was not updated neither did he get any SMS or emails.
His PD was 15 Feb 2007. He applied his 485 during Jul 07.

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Congrats to your Bro & S-I-L. What is their Service center?
Thanks.

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Originally Posted by 08OCT2008

My brother n sis in law has received their GCs today in mail. Online status was not updated neither did he get any SMS or emails.
His PD was 15 Feb 2007. He applied his 485 during Jul 07.

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mucho felicitations sir. The most happy part of this is that his PD was 15 FEB 2007. This shows to me they are comfortable with the visa numbers they have in ample quantity so as to give a number to such a late PD as compared to Nov, Dec or Jan. 15th FEB 2007 is quite close to 8th March 2007.

I wouldn't call it delay. My observation is that it is approx 8-10th working day of the month. So there is no cause of concern.

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Originally Posted by vishnu

Delayed bulletin isn't really a bad thing, no?

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Originally Posted by Stemcell

Q,
But did your source get to feel the vibes in DOS ?
Thanks.

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None. I have good vibes though based on how things have gone so far!

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q the bulletin coming late is probably a good sign, I believe they are themselves trying to assess how many cases are getting closed before publishing the VB. Right now by all standards the approval volume is way too low. I sincerely hope it picks up.

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Teddy I am not so concerned about lack of approvals online .... at least not yet. The numbers are there ... the dates have moved and we MUST see approvals. Its just a matter of time before we start seeing them.

from trackitt... " Posted by msrini (5) 1 hour 22 minutes ago
Initiated a SR on July 1st and received the physical cards in mail today. No changes in online status so far!!! "

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Spec... i have been arguing this point from last couple of months... IMO pwmb doesnt matter as they stand no chance of getting into the system this FY and i believe the same with the new porting applications... i also feel porting is not a big issue any more as more people applied for EB2 after 2007 and majority of the porting cases are already in... so porting is no more a big devil and we can comfortably ignore it...

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Together IC needs atleast 11k to clear backlog, if the available number is less or equal to 11k, they may just want to wait and see for 1/2 qtrs to estimate the supply.

I think there is consensus on this forum that almost entire backlog will be cleared this fy but what happens next is more of policy issue and that's where we just have to wait

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Spec... i have been arguing this point from last couple of months... IMO pwmb doesnt matter as they stand no chance of getting into the system this FY and i believe the same with the new porting applications... i also feel porting is not a big issue any more as more people applied for EB2 after 2007 and majority of the porting cases are already in... so porting is no more a big devil and we can comfortably ignore it...

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soggadu,

I agree that any PWMB or Porting numbers as a result of the movement will be quite small and Porting was never the devil that some people portrayed it as. At best, only a few hundred PWMB cases became current early enough to stand a chance of being approved this FY.

Even discounting those entirely, I don't think there are 11k visas left to allocate on top of the movement seen to date.

I tend to agree w Spec Teddy and others.

Just to be clear here are 2 things:
1. What is leftover is a range. Nobody knows. The possibility of backlog clearance are May 2007-Aug 2007. So Aug 2007 is not a slam dunk.
2. Date movement especially in Sep or Oct could be beyond what's possible to clear backlog. So just because dates move doesn't mean the numbers are there to support it.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

soggadu,

I agree that any PWMB or Porting numbers as a result of the movement will be quite small and Porting was never the devil that some people portrayed it as. At best, only a few hundred PWMB cases became current early enough to stand a chance of being approved this FY.

Even discounting those entirely, I don't think there are 11k visas left to allocate on top of the movement seen to date.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I tend to agree w Spec Teddy and others.

Just to be clear here are 2 things:
1. What is leftover is a range. Nobody knows. The possibility of backlog clearance are May 2007-Aug 2007. So Aug 2007 is not a slam dunk.
2. Date movement especially in Sep or Oct could be beyond what's possible to clear backlog. So just because dates move doesn't mean the numbers are there to support it.

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i agree...

Another person with ID 'spyindia' reports in trackitt that his I485 has been approved. So, approvals have probably started coming. The user doesn't have a profile, so take a look at Page 3 of the thread:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...page/last_page

Thanks !!

It was Texas Service Center

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Originally Posted by srini1976

Congrats to your Bro & S-I-L. What is their Service center?
Thanks.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

soggadu,

I agree that any PWMB or Porting numbers as a result of the movement will be quite small and Porting was never the devil that some people portrayed it as. At best, only a few hundred PWMB cases became current early enough to stand a chance of being approved this FY.

Even discounting those entirely, I don't think there are 11k visas left to allocate on top of the movement seen to date.

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I agree on porting with you... I am not sure on correct numbers still available as no concrete predictions have been made on this one... personal feeling is around 15K still available... lets see...

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Originally Posted by soggadu

I agree on porting with you... I am not sure on correct numbers still available as no concrete predictions have been made on this one... personal feeling is around 15K still available... lets see...

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There would still be some EB1 and EB2 ROW who will occupy some of the numbers which are there.

Gurus,

It's time to predict August Visa Bulliten. Let's predict it.

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Originally Posted by 08OCT2008

Thanks !!

It was Texas Service Center

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Congrats to your bro and sis in law. Looks like the online system is really not working, I haven’t heard one example thus far where somebody saw approved status online or received email / sms. So the updates looks will come by snail mail to the applicant (GC) or approval notice (Attorney), consequently the reporting will be significantly slower.

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Originally Posted by shreyasai2004

Gurus,

It's time to predict August Visa Bulliten. Let's predict it.

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I believe the range will be 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007 with 6K to 8K numbers being allocated.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

There would still be some EB1 and EB2 ROW who will occupy some of the numbers which are there.

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either aug01-2007 or July15-2008

Q, Thanks for this update.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

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GC Time from Trackitt

"I received my physical GC today in mail and have been reading lot of post from Trackitt, thought of sharing my experience for someone else who can benefit:

My Priority Date: 14-Feb-2007 EB2 TSC
RFE received for my 485 in Jan 2009 "