EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by venkat

Thanks Jagan for infusing life into this forum. Wow 62 approvals in 4 working days is a great thing..

I assume Gurus confirm that scenario1 is the case as i am someone who missed the boat by 10 days and any little forward movement will help.

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Venkat,

It is 64 approvals in 5 days... Oct 1,2,3,4,7.

There are more scenarios for the high number of approvals.
1. CO might be applying the quarterly numbers in Oct. Meaning 280*3 ~ 800. If that is the case then trackitt approvals might stop at around 100 or so. With quarterly numbers of EB2I only, there wont be any forward movement.
2. CO might be applying Quarterly spillover. In that case we can expect ~ 3000 approvals. The dates might move forward if this is the case.
3. People had been allocated visa numbers during FY 2013 and are being granted the approvals in OCT. This is not the case according to my understanding.

It remains to be seen whether it is scenario 1 Or 2. Trackitt trends will tell the story. Tomo is very very important. I see less approvals today but generally Monday has been slow. However, Tuesday to Friday it usually is high on approvals.

I think they could be 2013 numbers being applied in october or people simply updating case status late in trackitt.

The chance that there is any quarterly spillover applied in October is zero. The reason being, spillover can only be applied AFTER at least one month is gone by, quarterly spillover can't be applied before quarter is over but then the timing of visa bulletin is such that Q1 spillover can't be applied before Feb of Q2.

Sorry for being a spoiler. But there is no point in having false hope.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

I guess everyone has gone into the deep sleep mode :)

I was looking at trackitt data and saw that there are 62 approvals for OCt 2013. This number suggests that it Oct we are getting more than the monthly allowed visas. It can be one of the two scenarios:
1. Quarterly Spillovers have been brought into effect
2. People had been allocated visa numbers during FY 2013 and are being granted the approvals in OCT.

I think it is most likely scenario 1 that is contributing to the large number of approvals. If that is the case, the dates might actually move forward in Nov.
I do not think that it is scenario 2 as the approvals stopped around Sep 20, 2013 indicating that the annual limits had been reached.

Any inputs from any Gurus ?

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I agree that it is quarterly spill over (as I had repeatedly said would happen since the last VB came out), but I disagree with your conclusion that dates will move forward in the next VB.

It is quarterly spill over only because the visa numbers used are higher than the EB2I monthly allocation. CO has no way of estimating at this point in the year what the EB4, EB5, EB1 or EB2ROW usage is going to be, to authorize the spill over in the conventional sense. He simply used whatever excuse he had at his disposal (that based on the information available at that time, he had no way of estimating how far back to retrogress EB2I) to prevent EB2I retrogression as early as the October VB. I suspect that he wants to provide GCs to all EB2I (including pre 2007 porters) so that the current frontier truly moves to June 2008. That will happen by the end of the month (with the exception of post-2007 porters, who won't all get their GCs).

CO can't really use that excuse again this month, so he will probably have to retrogress EB2I now. The best case I can think of is holding dates steady if he can make the case that monthly EB3I to EB2I porting until June 2008 is minimal. Even if he does that, by the end of October, he'll know how much that flow is, so he'll still have to retrogress in the December bulletin. Either way, I see no forward movement this early in the year.

In the meantime, EB2I would still have used vastly more visa numbers in October than its monthly allocation (but perhaps I suspect less than its annual allocation). What this means is that come the end of the fiscal year (in summer 2014), there will still be the full spillover available to EB2I. In the meantime, we'll probably see EB2I retrogress to wherever EB3I is (to make monthly porter demand irrelevant).

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I think it's better for you to be realistic.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I think they could be 2013 numbers being applied in october or people simply updating case status late in trackitt.

The chance that there is any quarterly spillover applied in October is zero. The reason being, spillover can only be applied AFTER at least one month is gone by, quarterly spillover can't be applied before quarter is over but then the timing of visa bulletin is such that Q1 spillover can't be applied before Feb of Q2.

Sorry for being a spoiler. But there is no point in having false hope.

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To be clear, Q and I are essentially saying the same thing even though one of us is saying it is absolutely quarterly spill over and the other is saying it can't possibly be so.

We both think that there isn't enough information to gauge spill over, let alone allocate it and we both think dates are not going to move forward in the next VB.

Our only difference of opinion is that I think EB2I usage in October will be higher than its monthly allocation, and Q thinks that it is not. That is not a minor point because it has a bearing on what our opinions are on the final SOFAD available (whenever we make an estimate of it), but it has no significance now.

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

I agree that it is quarterly spill over (as I had repeatedly said would happen since the last VB came out), but I disagree with your conclusion that dates will move forward in the next VB.

It is quarterly spill over only because the visa numbers used are higher than the EB2I monthly allocation. CO has no way of estimating at this point in the year what the EB4, EB5, EB1 or EB2ROW usage is going to be, to authorize the spill over in the conventional sense. He simply used whatever excuse he had at his disposal (that based on the information available at that time, he had no way of estimating how far back to retrogress EB2I) to prevent EB2I retrogression as early as the October VB. I suspect that he wants to provide GCs to all EB2I (including pre 2007 porters) so that the current frontier truly moves to June 2008. That will happen by the end of the month (with the exception of post-2007 porters, who won't all get their GCs).

CO can't really use that excuse again this month, so he will probably have to retrogress EB2I now. The best case I can think of is holding dates steady if he can make the case that monthly EB3I to EB2I porting until June 2008 is minimal. Even if he does that, by the end of October, he'll know how much that flow is, so he'll still have to retrogress in the December bulletin. Either way, I see no forward movement this early in the year.

In the meantime, EB2I would still have used vastly more visa numbers in October than its monthly allocation (but perhaps I suspect less than its annual allocation). What this means is that come the end of the fiscal year (in summer 2014), there will still be the full spillover available to EB2I. In the meantime, we'll probably see EB2I retrogress to wherever EB3I is (to make monthly porter demand irrelevant).

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I think it's better for you to be realistic.

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Thanks Q and Pedro.

Q,
The approvals are all dated in Oct. I-485 approval date is Oct. Hence, it cannot be that the users are updating the cases late. Also there is not a single approval between Sep 21-30. Which makes me believe that these are coming from the FY2014 allocation.

Pedro and Q,
I understand that statistics say that there will not be forward movement. I totally concede that based on numbers, we might not see forward movement and CO is trying to drain as much applications as he can. The results will be out once OCt Inventory is published.

However, I am getting this feeling, that CO will move the dates ahead. He knows that until EB2I reaches EB2C, he will have all the spillover to handover to EB2I. If he moves the dates to where EB2C is today, then he will still not be crossing the limits. I do not see this as either good news or bad news. In fact, if the spillover is used early then the movement in next summer will be minimal.

Purely out of intuition, I think that dates will move to 08/08/08. But of course the numbers games as mentioned by you says something else.

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Hello Guys,

I got following two messages for I485 at separate times today, what does the second message means. Appreciate your QUICK RESPONSE on this.

1. On October 2, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

2. On October 2, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

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Hey VKKPNM,

Just saw this... Congrattts buddy...

What's the current guess for November bulletin?
To me it seems like high chance of retrogression, with slight chance of dates remaining same and no chance of moving forward. Is that about right?
Regarding how far it will retrogress, the lesser the better news it is for rest of the year, but hard to guess at this time. (?)

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Originally Posted by civilengineer

What's the current guess for November bulletin?
To me it seems like high chance of retrogression, with slight chance of dates remaining same and no chance of moving forward. Is that about right?
Regarding how far it will retrogress, the lesser the better news it is for rest of the year, but hard to guess at this time. (?)

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Trackit has 90 approvals for OCT 2013. This would translate to ~ 1350 cases approved in Oct 2013. This surely is exceeding the monthly allotment and most likely would end up exceeding quarterly quota. It seems more probable that Quarterly Spillover are in effect. The strategy of CO is unclear at this time and any strategy floating around is pure speculation.

The interesting thing is this, all the scenarios are good for someone and bad for someone. Here is what people with different PDs would be hoping:
1. Jan 2004 - Dec 2006: Ideally they might want dates to retrogress to Dec 2006. This would give them a much better change of getting GC as they do not have to worry about 2007,2008 guys getting ahead of them and taking away their chance.
2. Jan 2007 - Jun 2008: They are hoping dates stay as they are today. Most likely a retrogression might take them out of the picture and hence they might want dates to stay where they are.
3. Jun 2008 - Oct 2008: They would be hoping that the dates move forward and they at least get a chance.
4. Oct 2008 - Feb 2009: They know their dates wont be current soon. They are hoping it retrogresses to 2005/2006. This would translate to less porting and hence less people in from of them in the queue. Eventually it gives them a better shot during Aug/Sep 2014.
5. Mar 2009 onwards: Just hoping that dates move forward. So they at least get a chance to hope. Frankly these people would be more concentrating on CIR then visa bulletin.

Jagan,

You seem to have good intuition. I was a silent reader of the blog for last few years. I was amazed at your guess predicting the GC for Indiani exactly. Hope your intuition of dates of EB2I moving till EB2C will also become a fact.

Thanks for summarizing the approvals from Trackitt. You are the new Spec for us.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Trackit has 90 approvals for OCT 2013. This would translate to ~ 1350 cases approved in Oct 2013. This surely is exceeding the monthly allotment and most likely would end up exceeding quarterly quota. It seems more probable that Quarterly Spillover are in effect. The strategy of CO is unclear at this time and any strategy floating around is pure speculation.

The interesting thing is this, all the scenarios are good for someone and bad for someone. Here is what people with different PDs would be hoping:
1. Jan 2004 - Dec 2006: Ideally they might want dates to retrogress to Dec 2006. This would give them a much better change of getting GC as they do not have to worry about 2007,2008 guys getting ahead of them and taking away their chance.
2. Jan 2007 - Jun 2008: They are hoping dates stay as they are today. Most likely a retrogression might take them out of the picture and hence they might want dates to stay where they are.
3. Jun 2008 - Oct 2008: They would be hoping that the dates move forward and they at least get a chance.
4. Oct 2008 - Feb 2009: They know their dates wont be current soon. They are hoping it retrogresses to 2005/2006. This would translate to less porting and hence less people in from of them in the queue. Eventually it gives them a better shot during Aug/Sep 2014.
5. Mar 2009 onwards: Just hoping that dates move forward. So they at least get a chance to hope. Frankly these people would be more concentrating on CIR then visa bulletin.

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Originally Posted by magva99

Jagan,

You seem to have good intuition. I was a silent reader of the blog for last few years. I was amazed at your guess predicting the GC for Indiani exactly. Hope your intuition of dates of EB2I moving till EB2C will also become a fact.

Thanks for summarizing the approvals from Trackitt. You are the new Spec for us.

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Thanks for the kind words...

No one can replace Spec... He is the best when it comes to numbers and statistics...

I sincerely hope that everyone should get back to this forum... We need your guidance and inputs... Common guys... Spec, Indiani, Viz, Matt... I haven't heard from these guys for a long time...

Nov 2013 predictions ??

Spec hasnt gone anywhere guys. From his last update, I am of the belief he is on vacation (Correct me if i am wrong) and will be back soon.
No updates from Q,Spec or Matt coz there is no new information for them or others to crunch the numbers on.
Q as always has taken a step to provide a rough picture.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Thanks for the kind words...

No one can replace Spec... He is the best when it comes to numbers and statistics...

I sincerely hope that everyone should get back to this forum... We need your guidance and inputs... Common guys... Spec, Indiani, Viz, Matt... I haven't heard from these guys for a long time...

Nov 2013 predictions ??

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Jagar, you have put together very nicely...thanks for keeping this forum alive while seniors are taking a well deserved break...

Jagan you rock man..my PD is early 2009 & yes I want the dates to retrogress now (:-- !!!

"Oct 2008 - Feb 2009: They know their dates wont be current soon. They are hoping it retrogresses to 2005/2006. This would translate to less porting and hence less people in from of them in the queue. Eventually it gives them a better shot during Aug/Sep 2014."

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Thanks for the kind words...

No one can replace Spec... He is the best when it comes to numbers and statistics...

I sincerely hope that everyone should get back to this forum... We need your guidance and inputs... Common guys... Spec, Indiani, Viz, Matt... I haven't heard from these guys for a long time...

Nov 2013 predictions ??

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Trackit has 90 approvals for OCT 2013. This would translate to ~ 1350 cases approved in Oct 2013. This surely is exceeding the monthly allotment and most likely would end up exceeding quarterly quota. It seems more probable that Quarterly Spillover are in effect. The strategy of CO is unclear at this time and any strategy floating around is pure speculation.

The interesting thing is this, all the scenarios are good for someone and bad for someone. Here is what people with different PDs would be hoping:
1. Jan 2004 - Dec 2006: Ideally they might want dates to retrogress to Dec 2006. This would give them a much better change of getting GC as they do not have to worry about 2007,2008 guys getting ahead of them and taking away their chance.
2. Jan 2007 - Jun 2008: They are hoping dates stay as they are today. Most likely a retrogression might take them out of the picture and hence they might want dates to stay where they are.
3. Jun 2008 - Oct 2008: They would be hoping that the dates move forward and they at least get a chance.
4. Oct 2008 - Feb 2009: They know their dates wont be current soon. They are hoping it retrogresses to 2005/2006. This would translate to less porting and hence less people in from of them in the queue. Eventually it gives them a better shot during Aug/Sep 2014.
5. Mar 2009 onwards: Just hoping that dates move forward. So they at least get a chance to hope. Frankly these people would be more concentrating on CIR then visa bulletin.

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Really nice analysis! For the sake of everyone's good, though, I sincerely hope some if not most of these early October approvals were just USCIS paperwork based off 2013 visa number authorizations. Not sure if there is any precedent for registering PR status based on previous FY numbers, but I remember reading about it somewhere. That scenario combined with slow PERM processing for EB2-ROW due to the furlough should bode well for EB2-I this quarter. Thoughts?

The demand data website page shows it was updated on 10/09/13 but when you click on it, it shows the old (Dated June) DD. can anyone see new DD?

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Originally Posted by jackbrown_890

The demand data website page shows it was updated on 10/09/13 but when you click on it, it shows the old (Dated June) DD. can anyone see new DD?

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It is out now. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

Cumulative demand prior to January 2009 EB2-I is 9000. Very encouraging at first sight.

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Originally Posted by SenorMeow

Really nice analysis! For the sake of everyone's good, though, I sincerely hope some if not most of these early October approvals were just USCIS paperwork based off 2013 visa number authorizations. Not sure if there is any precedent for registering PR status based on previous FY numbers, but I remember reading about it somewhere. That scenario combined with slow PERM processing for EB2-ROW due to the furlough should bode well for EB2-I this quarter. Thoughts?

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Well, my bad. The demand data notes proved me wrong:

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The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation

of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in

the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible

cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.

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If you look closely at the data you would notice that it is suggesting 148000 visas are available for FY2014 however the limit is 140000.

Is this a typo or are they declaring that there are 8000 from FB category?

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Originally Posted by SenorMeow

Well, my bad. The demand data notes proved me wrong:

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It was clear that allocations are coming from FYI 2014.

Good thing is that most applications prior to June 08 are cleared as demand is 9000 prior to jan 2009.

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Originally Posted by natvyas

If you look closely at the data you would notice that it is suggesting 148000 visas are available for FY2014 however the limit is 140000.

Is this a typo or are they declaring that there are 8000 from FB category?

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It can't be typo... The addition says it is 148000. I do not know if they first key in the total and then the other fields get populated based on the total. If so then it can be a typo. But I doubt it will be a typo.

In last demand data EB2-I was 24,200 before Jan-2009. Its shows 9000 now. So they were actually able to clear almost 15, 200 applications. I am not sure if this demand data shows first time I485 fillers or not but at first sight this look very promising.

Demand Data does not have recently preadjudicated cases (Pre-June 2008). It will add another 4000-6000 cases on top of 9000 pending cases pre Jan 2009.

If we receive same number of spill over then 2008 should be cleared with breeeze by end of this year (USCIS calendar)

I don't see Spec these days. Does anyone know about it.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

It was clear that allocations are coming from FYI 2014.

Good thing is that most applications prior to June 08 are cleared as demand is 9000 prior to jan 2009.

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Yep. And that statement combined with the disclaimer of 'unused numbers' usage all but officially confirm spillover visas being used.

To give more detail to erikbon101's point above, the 9K figure is simply the sum of all July to Dec 2008 numbers in the last USCIS inventory which can be found here + about 925 from June 15th to June 30th, 2008. No surprise there.

All the applicants current in October but who don't get their GCs in October (I believe this will only be first time I485 filers, i.e., EB3 to EB2 porters with post Jul 2007 PDs) will be added to this demand next month. That will be the final DD pre 2014 spillover (although it may have already used up most of the EB2I 2014 allocation, and perhaps even dipped a little into the 2014 spillover).

Also, that's when you can calculate what the real spill over is (well, that + how much EB3I demand falls from the Aug DD to Dec DD, which will help us estimate the # of EB3I to EB2I porters). Rosharma's 15,200 (+ porters) is the upper limit of what the FY2013 spillover will turn out to be.

The real news here, as a few of you pointed out, is the 8,000 extra EB availability (which I can't think of any explanation for other than an early estimate of FB underusage). They won't have the exact number until February/March, so this number may change in the March DD, but perhaps not by much. As Sports calculates, that's 5,712 extra #s, that may all eventually FD to EB2I (although if EB1 ends up using its full allocation, they can eat into up to 2,288 of that) in addition to whatever else FA or FD Eb2I receives. That could push us well into 2009, but the all important number, I still think, is how many EB3I to EB2I porters showed up these last 3 months.