EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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11-13-2011, 05:32 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonDron

Guys, I am kind of in dilemma here and need some advice. My priority date is in June and I am hoping it to be current in next bulletin. The problem is wife is currently out of US and I am planning to join her late in Dec. We are planning to coming back in Feb. Now the things I am unclear about is :

1. Can I go out of country immediately after applying I-485?
2. What are the chances that PD will remain current for me in January 2012? (I don't want my wife to cut her trip short and come back in Dec. She is couple of important functions to attend - like her brothers wedding) I was hoping I could file my wife's AOS after she comes back. Is this a good idea?
3. How long generally lawyers take to prepare the I-485 application and file?
4. Should we file together (either in December or when we come back )?

Am I missing any point that I should consider in this situation?

Help will be really appreciated.

Don,
January VB should be out by mid December, if your PD is going to be current you can always change your rerun flights to come back and apply for AOS.

Q1) Yes, on valid non-immigrant status (when you come back have to enter into US using a valid VISA).
Q2) Don't know at this point!
Q3) This shouldn't take more than a week.
Q4) Yes, strongly advise to apply together.
11-13-2011, 05:39 PM
DonDron

Thanks

Veni, Thanks.

I am going India in last week of Dec. Are you suggesting, come back in January and apply for AOS? I was thinking in same line but not sure if my PD will be current in Feb 2012 visa bulletin. Also, can you please clarify, what are the reasons you are strongly advising against not filing together?
11-13-2011, 05:56 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonDron

Veni, Thanks.

I am going India in last week of Dec. Are you suggesting, come back in January and apply for AOS? I was thinking in same line but not sure if my PD will be current in Feb 2012 visa bulletin. Also, can you please clarify, what are the reasons you are strongly advising against not filing together?

Don,
In that case even if you are going to be current you will have at least a week before you leave to IND. Once January VB is out and if you are current then get all the paper work done before you leave, both of you can come back by last week in Jan to apply AOS, if your PD continue to be current in Feb'12 (based on Feb VB, will be released by mid Jan) you can come back in Feb ( as originally planned) and apply AOS.

When both you and your spouse don't apply together then, when you apply for your spouse you need to include your i485 receipt, tax returns...etc (additional evidence), which could delay spouse's AOS. If the dates retrogress before sending your spouse's AOS application could be a whole different story!
11-13-2011, 06:25 PM
DonDron

hmm..

Maybe I am confusing myself. Can someone please help me and correct my understanding?

1. In Dec, whatever visa bulletin comes, Is it called January Visa bulletin?
2. I am hoping to be current in the next months visa bulletin. Is it January Visa bulletin?
3. So, if 1. and 2. are correct, does it mean if in the next Visa bulletin, (January visa bulletin) I am correct then I can file AOS by 31st January even if in the visa bulletin which comes in January 2012 (which would be Feb visa bulletin), dates retrogress?
11-13-2011, 06:32 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonDron

Maybe I am confusing myself. Can someone please help me and correct my understanding?

1. In Dec, whatever visa bulletin comes, Is it called January Visa bulletin?
2. I am hoping to be current in the next months visa bulletin. Is it January Visa bulletin?
3. So, if 1. and 2. are correct, does it mean if in the next Visa bulletin, (January visa bulletin) I am correct then I can file AOS by 31st January even if in the visa bulletin which comes in January 2012 (which would be Feb visa bulletin), dates retrogress?

Don,
December'11 VB was released last week, so next VB will be Jan'12.

Q3) Yes
11-13-2011, 06:33 PM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Sun I agree with Kanmani's observation of the similarity in 2007 and 2008 perm numbers. So this approximation of 2.5K per month including everything will work. Now this factor of 1 has been validated against the first half of 2007 when demand destruction may have just been regular. In 2008 especally the later half not really the earlier part the demand destruction may have been higher because of virtual stoppage of perm approvals. As of now for the range that is current we have not hit that zone it really starts from May - Jun 2008 observe the perm table. So if you like you can have an additional destruction factor to cater to the 2008 market and perm situation it will swing the calculation to the optimistic side IMHO.

Teddy, I had replied to Tony's message earlier. But did not get further discussion. Please see below and let me know if my thinking has valid grounds in your opinion.

Quote:

Tony, based on the evidence presented by you, I would agree with you and say that my ratio is optimistic. The reason I was going for a ratio less than one is that in the last four years their has not been the support of EAD which was there for pre-July2007 filers, the recession and people going back & that wasn't the case in pre-July2007, people filing multiple PERMS due to job changes without an EAD.

More people filing in EB2 is already accounted in the higher ratio of EB2:EB3 and should not be used to compensate for demand destruction.

In spite of these factors, I agree with you and say, the ratio to be taken is 1.0
11-13-2011, 07:02 PM
sugada

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Please try to obtain the copy of I-140 approval notice from employer, that will be used to port your PD, or at least the case receipt number.

Company B has to again through entire process from beginning for GC, only thing lawyer will do is attach copy of prior I-140 approval notice of company A and request USCIS to use older PD on the new I-140. If you don't get copy of prior I-140 approval notice, I have heard that just knowing the case receipt number also has worked. 2011 is surely long way off, don't lose opportunity. I personally wasted a lot of time sitting around with same employer. As long as you have confidence new employer won't have problems doing EB2, go ahead.

ps: sugada, are you sogaddu's cousin :)

Thanks Nishant,
I do have a copy of I-140, and I hope it wouldnt be a difficult challenge for me to convince my new employer to file I-140 again. I will certainly pursue this.
No, I am not sogaddus cousin but I would certainly like to be a brother among this band to march.
Thanks for your great advice.
Sugada
11-13-2011, 07:11 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Teddy, I had replied to Tony's message earlier. But did not get further discussion. Please see below and let me know if my thinking has valid grounds in your opinion.

KD your point is valid, in fact Suninphx & Kanmani have also been making the same point. The ratio of 1 is from the first half of 2007 it certainly has demand destruction but something that would be more relative to that time (Things were good in early 2007), everyone had the cushion of EAD & AP though. Now agree that the situation was bad in 2008 but it was only in late 2008 in fact from May - Jun 2008 that perm became very tough to come by so we haven't hit that zone in essence. I would believe that demand destruction will be higher if someone’s labor went for a long audit.
In fact everyone who missed Jul 2007 to Mar 15th 2008 has been in kind of the same situation. Now since some destruction is only baked in by using 1 as the factor I feel the rest should be used as a buffer really. Otherwise you can choose something like 10% which just reduces the intake from 20K to 18K which hardly would make the difference of a month. I honestly believe that the next bulletin has to be the final intake as by that time PWMB cases filed last month will start to ripen up for sure and maybe even some filed in Nov. Nishant told me that the NVC works under the direct supervision of CO's office and since the fee notices went out till sometime in Jun 2008 PD's the dates may likely move there if the intake has not been sufficient. By all accounts even in the most optimistic scenario that is safe for a 30K buffer. Also on another note if labor becomes tough NIW is the way to avoid that and these cases are not even there in the perm data so this might compensate some of the destruction.
11-13-2011, 07:20 PM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

KD your point is valid, in fact Suninphx & Kanmani have also been making the same point. The ratio of 1 is from the first half of 2007 it certainly has demand destruction but something that would be more relative to that time (Things were good in early 2007), everyone had the cushion of EAD & AP though. Now agree that the situation was bad in 2008 but it was only in late 2008 in fact from May - Jun 2008 that perm became very tough to come by so we haven't hit that zone in essence. I would believe that demand destruction will be higher if someone’s labor went for a long audit.
In fact everyone who missed Jul 2007 to Mar 15th 2008 has been in kind of the same situation. Now since some destruction is only baked in by using 1 as the factor I feel the rest should be used as a buffer really. Otherwise you can choose something like 10% which just reduces the intake from 20K to 18K which hardly would make the difference of a month. I honestly believe that the next bulletin has to be the final intake as by that time PWMB cases filed last month will start to ripen up for sure and maybe even some filed in Nov. Nishant told me that the NVC works under the direct supervision of CO's office and since the fee notices went out till sometime in Jun 2008 PD's the dates may likely move there if the intake has not been sufficient. By all accounts even in the most optimistic scenario that is safe for a 30K buffer. Also on another note if labor becomes tough NIW is the way to avoid that and these cases are not even there in the perm data so this might compensate some of the destruction.

Teddy, thank you for explaining the nuances.
11-13-2011, 07:20 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Teddy, I had replied to Tony's message earlier. But did not get further discussion. Please see below and let me know if my thinking has valid grounds in your opinion.

KD, that's what my thought was. But same time I think for now we can go with 2500/month for whole 2008 and see how it pans out in coming months. Just don't want to be too optimistic as these are still initial days. What do you think?
11-13-2011, 07:31 PM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

KD, that's what my thought was. But same time I think for now we can go with 2500/month for whole 2008 and see how it pans out in coming months. Just don't want to be too optimistic as these are still initial days. What do you think?

I would say that's the way to go. Stick with the underlying facts until the facts change.
11-13-2011, 07:44 PM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

KD, that's what my thought was. But same time I think for now we can go with 2500/month for whole 2008 and see how it pans out in coming months. Just don't want to be too optimistic as these are still initial days. What do you think?

I think it goes beyond being optimistic. The optimistic demand calculation won't result in optimistic date movement immediately. The demand calculation itself is rooted in feedback we see from fellow members - about folks returning back, multiple PERMs etc. This information is something that USCIS and DoS cannot collect and verify easily. Their only choice is to move dates till they get the demand they need for approvals. I would say we are cautious as in the past we have been blindsided by sudden ROW demand jumps and backlog clearance.

Also USCIS always had a buffer of few thousand cases for EB2ROW even when they are current - Oct 2011 inventory shows 10K which indicates a real backlog. Now that they are rebuilding the demand for EB2IC, I think they would want to do the same.

So a optimistic movement comes from this angle.

So there are two forces at work. Optimistic demand calculation rooted in feedback of fellow members and optimistic date movement based in USCIS inventory history.
11-13-2011, 11:25 PM
nishant2200

Teddy, a minor correction. I meant CO's office is the entity that intimates NVC over date movement instruction and backlog estimates. NVC is under DOS and so is CO. USCIS is under department of homeland security and does not have any direct relation with CO's office. On the other hand, NVC is direct sibling of CO's office, and speculative fee notices for future has to come from CO, the big boss of visa control division.

In hindsight, this all looks like a conspired plan, with CO bent on sticking to the direction his office gave to NVC.

I have been hounding other forums for data mining, and multiple PERMs thing is a bit deeper reality than I thought, this I will say. Also EB1 is seeing big slow down in processing, they are pissed off.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

KD your point is valid, in fact Suninphx & Kanmani have also been making the same point. The ratio of 1 is from the first half of 2007 it certainly has demand destruction but something that would be more relative to that time (Things were good in early 2007), everyone had the cushion of EAD & AP though. Now agree that the situation was bad in 2008 but it was only in late 2008 in fact from May - Jun 2008 that perm became very tough to come by so we haven't hit that zone in essence. I would believe that demand destruction will be higher if someone’s labor went for a long audit.
In fact everyone who missed Jul 2007 to Mar 15th 2008 has been in kind of the same situation. Now since some destruction is only baked in by using 1 as the factor I feel the rest should be used as a buffer really. Otherwise you can choose something like 10% which just reduces the intake from 20K to 18K which hardly would make the difference of a month. I honestly believe that the next bulletin has to be the final intake as by that time PWMB cases filed last month will start to ripen up for sure and maybe even some filed in Nov. Nishant told me that the NVC works under the direct supervision of CO's office and since the fee notices went out till sometime in Jun 2008 PD's the dates may likely move there if the intake has not been sufficient. By all accounts even in the most optimistic scenario that is safe for a 30K buffer. Also on another note if labor becomes tough NIW is the way to avoid that and these cases are not even there in the perm data so this might compensate some of the destruction.
11-14-2011, 07:29 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Teddy, a minor correction. I meant CO's office is the entity that intimates NVC over date movement instruction and backlog estimates. NVC is under DOS and so is CO. USCIS is under department of homeland security and does not have any direct relation with CO's office. On the other hand, NVC is direct sibling of CO's office, and speculative fee notices for future has to come from CO, the big boss of visa control division.

In hindsight, this all looks like a conspired plan, with CO bent on sticking to the direction his office gave to NVC.

I have been hounding other forums for data mining, and multiple PERMs thing is a bit deeper reality than I thought, this I will say. Also EB1 is seeing big slow down in processing, they are pissed off.

Besides EB1, even EB2 ROW is running significantly slow on Trackitt for last month. This could mean good news if the trend continues for a few months.
11-14-2011, 10:42 AM
Jan2008

I have a question that I've been meaning to ask from quite sometime now. My PD got current in the Dec bulletin and I am getting things to ready to file as early as Dec 2nd. Now taking into account that it takes 90 days for EAD and AP, I am hopeful to have something by March end- latest.

I am planning to make a trip to India late March/ early April for a family event. My real question is- I have not been to India in the last 6 years.. ever since I came here on H1. Can I make a trip in just few weeks of getting EAD/ AP? Or will I be scrutinize for planning a trip to India right after my EAD/ AP arrival.

I wasn't able to plan a visit for multiple reasons and hoping I don't get into trouble for not leaving the country on H1, but on EAD/ AP. Please advice if someone has been in the similar situation?
11-14-2011, 11:07 AM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jan2008

I have a question that I've been meaning to ask from quite sometime now. My PD got current in the Dec bulletin and I am getting things to ready to file as early as Dec 2nd. Now taking into account that it takes 90 days for EAD and AP, I am hopeful to have something by March end- latest.

I am planning to make a trip to India late March/ early April for a family event. My real question is- I have not been to India in the last 6 years.. ever since I came here on H1. Can I make a trip in just few weeks of getting EAD/ AP? Or will I be scrutinize for planning a trip to India right after my EAD/ AP arrival.

I wasn't able to plan a visit for multiple reasons and hoping I don't get into trouble for not leaving the country on H1, but on EAD/ AP. Please advice if someone has been in the similar situation?

Just by receiving EAD/AP you dont move into that status unless you change form (I dont recollect exact name of the form...but this is form you fill with HR when you joj company or when alien's status chanegs) to reflect this change. Why not attempt stamping H1 and keep EAD/AP as backup? Also, please make sure you check all your options with a competent immigration lawyer.
11-14-2011, 11:09 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

ps: I just read your H1 expires on 11/30/2012, that's quite late dude, for some reason I read it as something early earlier on. theoritically I believe you can even work on H1 if you have applied for it and have receipt, so can delay applying till like last moment is it. I personally faced this dillema this year, my H1 expiring in October 2011, I still went ahead and applied for extension 6 months (max allowable) earlier than the expiry for peace of mind, and turned out right, I ended up needing it. You never know.

This is confirmed by my Lawyer that you can work on H1 and considered in status if someone applied for extension before the H1 expiry date. Even if its not approved and still getting processed by USCIS, the status is considered valid. I had a situation where my lawyer sent my file for extension four times to USCIS for extension and every time it came back from the officer saying he needed extra 500$, because of not considering successor of interest details. My lawyer was adamant not to pay a single penny extra to USCIS and on the lighter side may be wanted to keep that with himself, even if the company gave a go ahead to pay the extra amount since we wanted a receipt number before expiry date (end of Oct). Finally he sent the docs with reasoning to the Supervisor and it was approved. Also when the final docs were sent to Supervisor the receive date at USCIS was beyond my H1 expiry date, but Lawyer said we are good and in status as we have proof that we did the right thing and the USCIS officer did not accept because he was not looking at the right information. Hope this helps.
11-14-2011, 11:29 AM
imdeng

That is interesting info with significant bearing on PD movement. Thanks Teddy.

The factors that are important right now for EB2I movement in my mind:
A) Buffer level desired by CO - I think 30K is being considered a good estimate - could be as high as 40K.
B) Demand density 07/07 onwards - We are settling in at 2.5K/month and going down sharply after mid-2008. There is potential of this turning out to be lower with DD (Demand Destruction).
C) EB1, EB2ROW consumption levels this FY - trackitt is showing slowdown - will need to see if the trends continue. If USCIS goes on a backlog reduction mode for EB1/EB2ROW then that will negate some of the positive impact.

All in all looking quite good. I guess July 01, 2008 NVC Fee Notice is looking right on the money.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Besides EB1, even EB2 ROW is running significantly slow on Trackitt for last month. This could mean good news if the trend continues for a few months.
11-14-2011, 11:32 AM
Stemcell

Not sure if my memory is failing me....but i remember reading somewhere that NVC fee notices had been sent to someone with a PD of Sept 2008.

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

That is interesting info with significant bearing on PD movement. Thanks Teddy.

The factors that are important right now for EB2I movement in my mind:
A) Buffer level desired by CO - I think 30K is being considered a good estimate - could be as high as 40K.
B) Demand density 07/07 onwards - We are settling in at 2.5K/month and going down sharply after mid-2008. There is potential of this turning out to be lower with DD (Demand Destruction).
C) EB1, EB2ROW consumption levels this FY - trackitt is showing slowdown - will need to see if the trends continue. If USCIS goes on a backlog reduction mode for EB1/EB2ROW then that will negate some of the positive impact.

All in all looking quite good. I guess July 01, 2008 NVC Fee Notice is looking right on the money.
11-14-2011, 11:35 AM
imdeng

BTW - for some reason, some posters on trackitt forums consider our forum to be inaccurate. It doesn't bother me - but I don't think this is warranted. We are a fact based discussion group and our assumptions are all laid out in public and discussed. After that if predictions are not accurate - it is because of the inherent systemic issues with the process and not the analysis. Even then, I don't think we have been any more off the mark than any other source. If anything, IIRC, Teddy nailed down the end of FY PD and Q has been correct about by when the pipeline needs to be filled.
11-14-2011, 11:37 AM
imdeng

I have not heard of a confirmed report of a Sept2008 fee notice. I believe the best date was announced in Ron's forum - but I don't recall what it was.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stemcell

Not sure if my memory is failing me....but i remember reading somewhere that NVC fee notices had been sent to someone with a PD of Sept 2008.
11-14-2011, 11:39 AM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

That is interesting info with significant bearing on PD movement. Thanks Teddy.

The factors that are important right now for EB2I movement in my mind:
A) Buffer level desired by CO - I think 30K is being considered a good estimate - could be as high as 40K.
B) Demand density 07/07 onwards - We are settling in at 2.5K/month and going down sharply after mid-2008. There is potential of this turning out to be lower with DD (Demand Destruction).
C) EB1, EB2ROW consumption levels this FY - trackitt is showing slowdown - will need to see if the trends continue. If USCIS goes on a backlog reduction mode for EB1/EB2ROW then that will negate some of the positive impact.

All in all looking quite good. I guess July 01, 2008 NVC Fee Notice is looking right on the money.

And to add to what you said...all this points to increasing probability of your signature line (content) :)
11-14-2011, 11:45 AM
Karma1979

I know it is not mandatory to send tax returns, W2 and pay stubs to file I-485. My lawyer is not asking for those documents and also insists that we should not send them more documents than they require. Wanted to put this on the blog and get a feel of what other lawyers r doing. So all who became current. r your lawyers asking for these documents?
11-14-2011, 11:45 AM
imdeng

Ha ha - yes I hope. Right now, I would consider it a better than half chance (hence "expecting") - although it can very well get pushed to Oct-Nov-Dec 2013 if stars don't align well. In any event, I am looking at between 3.5 to 4.5 years for filing 485 - which, considering everything, is quite acceptable.

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

And to add to what you said...all this points to increasing probability of your signature line (content) :)
11-14-2011, 11:48 AM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

Ha ha - yes I hope. Right now, I would consider it a better than half chance (hence "expecting") - although it can very well get pushed to Oct-Nov-Dec 2013 if stars don't align well. In any event, I am looking at between 3.5 to 4.5 years for filing 485 - which, considering everything, is quite acceptable.

Yes - Agree :)

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