EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by shekhar_kuruk

No one is sure about the how far the dates will move in Aug's & Sep's Bulletin, you may be able to file for AOS if they move past July 09 in Sep's bulletin.
I think everyone in this forum will be suprised if not shocked, if they move to Oct 09 in Sep's or Oct's bulletin, it all depends on the spill over.
But I think you have a fair chance to file for AOS this fall. Good luck.

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To clear off all the pending 485's ( without giving any breathing time for porters and new filers) till 01-Oct-2009, EB2-I needs a total of 28.5K visas in FY14.
In otherwords it needs a 7k in Jul'14, 8K in Aug'14 & another 8K in Sep'14.
The corresponding CODs will be Sep'08 for Jul'14, Mar'09 for Aug'14 & Oct'09 for Sep'14.

Now the question is how will EB2-I get these many visas. It can only happen if something extremely goes wrong with EB1C & EB2-ROW processing this year.
If we know ground realities in those categories then its anybody's guess where will be the dates move.

Hello Everyone,
I got Birth Certificate from India.My father's surname is not written on my Certificate but it's on my Paassport.My mother's surname is written on Birth Certificate but not on Passport.Birth certificate issuing authority says they can't add or remove anything.Is it ok or no?
Thanks

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Originally Posted by helooo

Hello Everyone,
I got Birth Certificate from India.My father's surname is not written on my Certificate but it's on my Paassport.My mother's surname is written on Birth Certificate but not on Passport.Birth certificate issuing authority says they can't add or remove anything.Is it ok or no?
Thanks

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Nearly 90% of us have Birth Certificate issues, so called non-compatibility with US immigration requirements. Each Indian state issues BC in different format which is not rejected in that particular state's education system, we have no requirement of BCs once Secondary School Leaving Certificate is issued. ( I guess this holds true for most of the Indian states). Our Head ache starts once we start our immigration process.

helooo,

Your Birth Certificate is ok . Get affidavits as secondary evidence from your parents/relatives and submit them along with your BC.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

To clear off all the pending 485's ( without giving any breathing time for porters and new filers) till 01-Oct-2009, EB2-I needs a total of 28.5K visas in FY14.
In otherwords it needs a 7k in Jul'14, 8K in Aug'14 & another 8K in Sep'14.
The corresponding CODs will be Sep'08 for Jul'14, Mar'09 for Aug'14 & Oct'09 for Sep'14.

Now the question is how will EB2-I get these many visas. It can only happen if something extremely goes wrong with EB1C & EB2-ROW processing this year.
If we know ground realities in those categories then its anybody's guess where will be the dates move.

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Long time reader, first time poster... and a big fan of the forum!

Q, Spec, Yt...
Given Math YT provides above, what do you make of the RFEs all way to end of Oct 09? I had been hibernating but woke up seeing them. My PD is 30-Oct-2009. Can I hope to get a chance to file I-485 this FY?

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Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth

Long time reader, first time poster... and a big fan of the forum!

Q, Spec, Yt...
Given Math YT provides above, what do you make of the RFEs all way to end of Oct 09? I had been hibernating but woke up seeing them. My PD is 30-Oct-2009. Can I hope to get a chance to file I-485 this FY?

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The Fragomen bulletin said early summer. While "early summer" is open to interpretation, I don't think Oct 2009 will get current. The Oct RFEs probably indicate that Oct 2009 will be current this time next year.

My opinion is if you have a PD of mid to late 2009, you should delay doing your medical tests till early Aug. That way it will surely be valid next year. Otherwise you run the risk of having to do it all over again.

I have this question on how the I-485 inventory is managed? Let's say as an hypothetical example, if 20k visas are issued to EB2-I for this FY, how far will CO move the dates for EB2-I to maintain sufficient I-485 inventory build-up?

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Originally Posted by flexan

I have this question on how the I-485 inventory is managed? Let's say as an hypothetical example, if 20k visas are issued to EB2-I for this FY, how far will CO move the dates for EB2-I to maintain sufficient I-485 inventory build-up?

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Its a balance of inventory and demand. Inventory = Demand + pending applications. In the current situation, there is sufficient demand to NOT need to move dates to build inventory specifically. When both demand and inventory start to get low that's when CO would moves dates specifically to build inventory.

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Originally Posted by flexan

I have this question on how the I-485 inventory is managed? Let's say as an hypothetical example, if 20k visas are issued to EB2-I for this FY, how far will CO move the dates for EB2-I to maintain sufficient I-485 inventory build-up?

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As vizcard says, it is a balance between demand from EB2-I and supply of visas available at the time.

That's slightly complicated because USCIS process almost 100% of EB2-I cases and CO is reliant on the information provided by them. He can only see information on preadjudicated case and, when current, new cases/ converting cases only as they are approved.

Currently, it's fair to assume that he can see pretty much all the 31k EB2-I cases in the USCIS inventory as of April 2014.

What he can't see currently (and must estimate), are cases currently showing as EB3 (porters) and any applications that USCIS have not preadjudicated and requested a visa for. On the other hand, he must also make an estimate for cases that will either be denied or delayed beyond the current FY.

For example, if he had a further 15k visas left for EB2-I this year, that would leave 31 -15 = 16k left, plus any porters who use visas plus any new applications that use visas this FY as the opening balance for FY2015. In FY2015 there would be a few more porters to account for as well.

Only when the balance of known demand remaining approaches the number of visas available at a point in time, can CO consider moving the Cut Off Dates beyond 01MAY10. In the example above, he would need around 16k+ visas in FY2015 to move the dates beyond 01MAY10 and create a new inventory. I would stress that the 15k figure is an example figure only.

Some people might say that could happen in FY2015 and other believe it will be at least FY2016 before that point is reached.

EB2-China Cut Off Dates should move beyond 01MAY10 during FY2015. They will have at least 2.8k visas available, while demand going into FY2015 will be below that figure, at least judging by the present Cut Off date and the last Inventory figures.

Generally the dates move slightly in advance of visas being exhausted, since it takes several months for USCIS to process them to completion. Only then will CO be able to see the demand.

Spec,
Based on what you said about EB2 China, I checked their progression in FY13 and FY14 so far. They seem to be moving about a month every month. If the same pace continues without it halting during Q4 FY14 then they should hit May 2010 around April 2015, give or take a couple of months. So, you say EB2I can only hit May 2010 after EB2C reaches that point?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

As vizcard says, it is a balance between demand from EB2-I and supply of visas available at the time.

That's slightly complicated because USCIS process almost 100% of EB2-I cases and CO is reliant on the information provided by them. He can only see information on preadjudicated case and, when current, new cases/ converting cases only as they are approved.

Currently, it's fair to assume that he can see pretty much all the 31k EB2-I cases in the USCIS inventory as of April 2014.

What he can't see currently (and must estimate), are cases currently showing as EB3 (porters) and any applications that USCIS have not preadjudicated and requested a visa for. On the other hand, he must also make an estimate for cases that will either be denied or delayed beyond the current FY.

For example, if he had a further 15k visas left for EB2-I this year, that would leave 31 -15 = 16k left, plus any porters who use visas plus any new applications that use visas this FY as the opening balance for FY2015. In FY2015 there would be a few more porters to account for as well.

Only when the balance of known demand remaining approaches the number of visas available at a point in time, can CO consider moving the Cut Off Dates beyond 01MAY10. In the example above, he would need around 16k+ visas in FY2015 to move the dates beyond 01MAY10 and create a new inventory. I would stress that the 15k figure is an example figure only.

Some people might say that could happen in FY2015 and other believe it will be at least FY2016 before that point is reached.

EB2-China Cut Off Dates should move beyond 01MAY10 during FY2015. They will have at least 2.8k visas available, while demand going into FY2015 will be below that figure, at least judging by the present Cut Off date and the last Inventory figures.

Generally the dates move slightly in advance of visas being exhausted, since it takes several months for USCIS to process them to completion. Only then will CO be able to see the demand.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Some people might say that could happen in FY2015 and other believe it will be at least FY2016 before that point is reached.

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The following is more of wishful thinking :)

With CIR almost dead and this is Obama's sixth year of presidency do you think that there is higher probability of repeat of Aug 2007 scenario. This might serve dual purpose of providing some administrative relief for legal immigrants and also build up inventory.

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Originally Posted by CleanSock

Spec,
Based on what you said about EB2 China, I checked their progression in FY13 and FY14 so far. They seem to be moving about a month every month. If the same pace continues without it halting during Q4 FY14 then they should hit May 2010 around April 2015, give or take a couple of months. So, you say EB2I can only hit May 2010 after EB2C reaches that point?

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Cleansock,

EB2-I cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB2-C while EB2-I has a greater demand than EB2-C.

To do so currently, EB2-I would be using "otherwise unused visas". In that situation, EB2-C would have to share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I.

The converse is not true, if EB2-C can achieve a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I purely on the basis of their initial allocation (a minimum of 2.8k).

CO explained this in the May 2011 VB. The relevant part from Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5) is:

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Based on amount and priority dates of pending demand and year-to-date number use, a different cut-off date could be applied to each oversubscribed country, for the purpose of assuring that the maximum amount of available numbers will be used.

Note that a cut-off date imposed to control the use of “otherwise unused” numbers could be earlier than the cut-off date established to control number use under a quarterly or per-country annual limit.

For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

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Although not directly related to your question, there was also an interesting section entitled D. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON FREQUENTLY MISUNDERSTOOD POINTS in the April 2010 VB. It's worth having bookmarked IMO.

I think I will post the full content of both in the FACTS and DATA section for easy reference.

I see. That means they both are loosely coupled. Even though EB2I can never surpass EB2C as long as it has more demand than EB2C, at the same time EB2C hitting May 2010 doesn't guarantee EB2I hitting May 2010 sometime close to it either. So I guess demand buildup in FY15 is ruled out.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Cleansock,

EB2-I cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB2-C while EB2-I has a greater demand than EB2-C.

To do so currently, EB2-I would be using "otherwise unused visas". In that situation, EB2-C would have to share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I.

The converse is not true, if EB2-C can achieve a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I purely on the basis of their initial allocation (a minimum of 2.8k).

CO explained this in the May 2011 VB. The relevant part from Allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers in accordance with Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) Section 202(a)(5) is:



Although not directly related to your question, there was also an interesting section entitled D. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON FREQUENTLY MISUNDERSTOOD POINTS in the April 2010 VB. It's worth having bookmarked IMO.

I think I will post the full content of both in the FACTS and DATA section for easy reference.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

I don't think Oct 2009 will get current. The Oct RFEs probably indicate that Oct 2009 will be current this time next year.

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Thanks, vizcard. In that case, on the USCIS' part, why should there be a hurry to send those RFEs now verses next year? Especially, since the medicals are $600-700 expense for a family and they probably know it. Do they usually send such RFEs for dates that are not likely to be current?

Additionally, I think that close to the end of FY the last year, CO forecast Feb2008 and the dates actually moved to June2008. This year he supposedly said early Summer (say, Jun, Jul) 09. Is it possible that it may actually go through end of Oct 09? Does he tend to stay conservative?

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

If we assume the following visa allocations for the EB2-I (which is a fair one considering the last 4 years stats):
FY14 - 22k
FY15 - 12k
FY16 - 22k
then we can expect early 2011 cases will be getting the EADs in early FY17.
Also, FY17 will be interesting to see as there will not be any EB3-EB2 porting pressures for EB2-I as all of the EB3-I backlog will be cleared by then due to lack of EB3-ROW demand.

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Based on above assumptions when do you think there is a chance of buiding new inventory i.e. getting an EAD for the PD 05/27/2010

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Originally Posted by 4WatItsWorth

Thanks, vizcard. In that case, on the USCIS' part, why should there be a hurry to send those RFEs now verses next year? Especially, since the medicals are $600-700 expense for a family and they probably know it. Do they usually send such RFEs for dates that are not likely to be current?

Additionally, I think that close to the end of FY the last year, CO forecast Feb2008 and the dates actually moved to June2008. This year he supposedly said early Summer (say, Jun, Jul) 09. Is it possible that it may actually go through end of Oct 09? Does he tend to stay conservative?

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Couple of factors -
1. USCIS and DOS are 2 different organizations that don't necessarily talk to each other on a daily basis. So USCIS doesn't know for sure how far dates will progress. For all you know DOS might be working off the same assumption that since CO said Feb 08 and dates moved to June so lets be prepared for the worst. The last thing USCIS would want is to get blamed for visas going unused. As for the money part of it, do you think they really care ?

2. CO and DOS make forecasts based on assumptions and available data at that point in time . As with any forecast, they tend to be more accurate the closer you get. So I fully expect that while he said early summer 2009 in May-end, that will change by July-end in either direction.

Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 From AILA Conference From Oh Law Firm

06/20/2014: Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 (September 30, 2014)

Reportedly, at the AILA National Conference, DOS sources disclosed the following rough predictions:

• EB-2 India:

• August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

• September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

• EB-3 India: Not more than a week at a time

• China EB-3: Anticipated major movement

• Family-based Immigrant Categories: In the current pace

On behalf of our readers, this reporter wants to express a gratitude for a colleague attorney who currently attends the conference and was sharing the valuable information with us and our audience.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

From Oh Law Firm

EB-2 India:

August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)
September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

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Hmm. Thanks Spec.

Looks like I am gonna miss the boat by 2-3 weeks difference. Frustrating!

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Hmm. Thanks Spec.

Looks like I am gonna miss the boat by 2-3 weeks difference. Frustrating!

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I dont think you will miss the boat, Kanmani. I received an RFE and My PD is 3.5 months after you :)

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

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Originally Posted by Spectator

• EB-2 India:

• August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

• September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

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Hmm. Thanks Spec.

Looks like I am gonna miss the boat by 2-3 weeks difference. Frustrating!

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Kanmani,

Well, "spring" is as vague a term as "early summer", although it is slightly less optimistic.

I do agree that the DOS (CO) information to date is something of a mismatch to the dates that USCIS are issuing RFE for. As someone mentioned previously, perhaps USCIS are going overboard in ensuring that they can't be blamed for visa wastage. That would have been fine without the change in the I-693 policy.

I wouldn't give up hope entirely.

I thought the EB3-China comment was interesting. It suggests CO overreacted with such a large retrogression and that more visas within their allocation will be available this FY.

I have no reason to believe the information is inaccurate, but I would still like to see some confirmation on other sites. Given it is the AILA Conference and quite important news, the usual suspects should also be reporting it (but maybe early next week).

Mr.CO is playing with our emotions by choosing a different strategy to torture us. First time ever, I am into the information on seasons of this country.

My favorite season is FALL. (at Shenandoah National Park)

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Mr.CO is playing with our emotions by choosing a different strategy to torture us. First time ever, I am into the information on seasons of this country.

My favorite season is FALL. (at Shenandoah National Park)

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It's an interesting situation.

DOS are in charge of setting the Cut Off Dates, so it appears to be USCIS playing with people by hinting at later dates.

On the other hand, USCIS have complete control over the number of approvals (very few CP for EB1, EB2), so if USCIS don't approve other cases, they can force DOS' hand. June approvals on Trackitt are extremely low and I don't think that will improve from July to the end of the FY, when other case approvals will be subsumed by the flood of EB2-I approvals.

I can't disagree about Shenandoah National Park, but I think I've already completed most of the walks that can be done in a day's hiking.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I can't disagree about Shenandoah National Park, but I think I've already completed most of the walks that can be done in a day's hiking.

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I didn't know Spec and Kanmani are east coasters or maybe im being presumptuous.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 From AILA Conference From Oh Law Firm

06/20/2014: Unofficial Prediction of Visa Number Movement for the Rest of FY 2014 (September 30, 2014)

Reportedly, at the AILA National Conference, DOS sources disclosed the following rough predictions:

• EB-2 India:

• August: Move upto "early" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

• September: Move upto "spring" 2009 (No wonder why EB-2 Indians have been receiving Medical RFEs for those with priority date of middle of 2009)

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This is like a triangulation job. Fragomen said it is going to be Early Summer 2009. The AILA conference says it is going to be Spring 2009. There is no mention of early or late Spring. Either way Mid June 2009 to October 2009 appears to be toast. So even if you get an RFE, I would delay it as much as possible before responding. This will at least ensure that your medicals will be valid next year when the dates will be made current for June to October 2009. NSC has also been very slow in sending out the physical copies of the RFEs. It should at least give us more time to respond and the hope in that is the new medicals will be valid for one more year when the dates will become current again.

If we crunch the numbers, there is very less likelihood for the dates to go beyond June 2009. If we assume a lot of denials, very low porting and ultra low new applications, we can stretch the dates a bit. Making everyone go through the medical tests on a hunch that the dates may move is an unrealistic expectation. I am trying to understand what kind of medical issues lets you stay in the country for several years on temporary visas (work or otherwise), but would actually become problematic once you become a permanent resident. The biggest thing with these tests seems to be the TB test with a lot of false positives. Even if you assume you have the TB and the worst variations of it, you were in the country for more than 10 years for Pete's sake. Why would it be tested during PR process and why not before? This whole approach seems to be coming out of someones rear (sorry if I am violating the forums standards here). Is the fear that the potential immigrant is going to become a burden because of his/her health issues? Are the same set of medical evaluations applied to all the immigrants to the country (both legal and illegal)?

Just wanted to stop by (since it has been a while) and wish those counting down the hours and minutes to July 1 the very best! It's nice to see the experts still contributing here and discussions remain respectful and content focused, which is kind of ironic considering this post is off topic ;).

Here's my prediction: my "expert number crunching" tells me that there will be many happy posts in the weeks to come - some later than others, but definitely happier in tone the longer the wait. Sit tight and don't lose hope if your approval notification doesn't arrive immediately - mine woke me up on an early October morning last year after what felt like an eternity!

Good luck guys!!!

This latest news is definitely a setback. With Early summer it was possible PD would move to July 1 2009 or later but Spring 2009 could mean anywhere from Mar to Jun 09. It seems like fine tuning predictions is almost an impossible task because even CO is playing it by year as can been seen from Fragomen and then AILA information.

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Originally Posted by vyruss

This is like a triangulation job. Fragomen said it is going to be Early Summer 2009. The AILA conference says it is going to be Spring 2009. There is no mention of early or late Spring. Either way Mid June 2009 to October 2009 appears to be toast. So even if you get an RFE, I would delay it as much as possible before responding. This will at least ensure that your medicals will be valid next year when the dates will be made current for June to October 2009. NSC has also been very slow in sending out the physical copies of the RFEs. It should at least give us more time to respond and the hope in that is the new medicals will be valid for one more year when the dates will become current again.

If we crunch the numbers, there is very less likelihood for the dates to go beyond June 2009. If we assume a lot of denials, very low porting and ultra low new applications, we can stretch the dates a bit. Making everyone go through the medical tests on a hunch that the dates may move is an unrealistic expectation. I am trying to understand what kind of medical issues lets you stay in the country for several years on temporary visas (work or otherwise), but would actually become problematic once you become a permanent resident. The biggest thing with these tests seems to be the TB test with a lot of false positives. Even if you assume you have the TB and the worst variations of it, you were in the country for more than 10 years for Pete's sake. Why would it be tested during PR process and why not before? This whole approach seems to be coming out of someones rear (sorry if I am violating the forums standards here). Is the fear that the potential immigrant is going to become a burden because of his/her health issues? Are the same set of medical evaluations applied to all the immigrants to the country (both legal and illegal)?

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Wow .. one thing went unnoticed by me.

First time in last 9 years TOTAL IMMIGRATION DROPPED.

What a bummer. At a time when the population is aging and US needs workforce replacement, that time we see total immigration dropping.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The DHS Yearbook Of Immigration Statistics for FY2013 has been published.

Some figures from the tables.

Breakdown of EB1 by Sub-Category

EB1A - 25,0%
EB1B - 19.2%
EB1C - 55.7%

Note - Principals Only. Dependents are not broken down.

Principals & Dependents By Category (includes Principal)

EB1 - 2.40
EB2 - 2.02
EB3 - 2.14
EB4 - 1.48 (2.18 when SIJ are excluded)
EB5 - 2.74

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I got RFE on 06/05/2014 but so far I havent received the notice. I called USCIS and asked them to resend. My question now is, How many days will I get to respond to RFE? I hope the RFE is for medicals but not sure as of now.

Thanks in advance for your responses.

Gurus ,

I have a question about the visa bulletin predictions. Does the predictions include FY15 numbers that may be given out in October like last year?

I have turned down a couple of opportunities because of the immigration situation in the last few months.I was holding on to little hope that my PD (6/29/2009) may get current and I could file my I-485 this year at least.

i hope you are right sportsfan! :eek: With a PD of Jun 17 09. I hope i don't miss the boat this time. At least hoping to get an EAD.

Q - GC issuance has been remarkably stable in last 10 years. Very minor variations. DHS calls the group LPR - Lawful Permanent Residents - and in the last 10 years, there has been ~1 million LPRs every year - give or take a little bit. The small decline in 2013 has mainly been because of drop in the biggest category for LPR - Immediate Relatives of Citizens.


2004 - 957,883
2005 1,122,257
2006 1,266,129
2007 1,052,415
2008 1,107,126
2009 1,130,818
2010 1,042,625
2011 1,062,040
2012 1,031,631
2013 - 990,553

Update: I looked at Citizenship data - and that seems to be increasing modestly. 2011: 694K, 2012: 757K, 2013: 780K. Interestingly, folks from China are getting a lot of GCs, but much fewer citizenships.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Wow .. one thing went unnoticed by me.

First time in last 9 years TOTAL IMMIGRATION DROPPED.

What a bummer. At a time when the population is aging and US needs workforce replacement, that time we see total immigration dropping.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Q - GC issuance has been remarkably stable in last 10 years. Very minor variations. DHS calls the group LPR - Lawful Permanent Residents - and in the last 10 years, there has been ~1 million LPRs every year - give or take a little bit. The small decline in 2013 has mainly been because of drop in the biggest category for LPR - Immediate Relatives of Citizens.


2004 - 957,883
2005 1,122,257
2006 1,266,129
2007 1,052,415
2008 1,107,126
2009 1,130,818
2010 1,042,625
2011 1,062,040
2012 1,031,631
2013 - 990,553

Update: I looked at Citizenship data - and that seems to be increasing modestly. 2011: 694K, 2012: 757K, 2013: 780K. Interestingly, folks from China are getting a lot of GCs, but much fewer citizenships.

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Here's another 20 years of LPR numbers.

1984 --- 541,811 ----- 1994 --- 803,993
1985 --- 568,149 ----- 1995 --- 720,177
1986 --- 600,027 ----- 1996 --- 915,560
1987 --- 599,889 ----- 1997 --- 797,847
1988 --- 641,346 ----- 1998 --- 653,206
1989 - 1,090,172 ----- 1999 --- 644,787
1990 - 1,535,872 ----- 2000 --- 841,002
1991 - 1,826,595 ----- 2001 - 1,058,902
1992 --- 973,445 ----- 2002 - 1,059,356
1993 --- 903,916 ----- 2003 --- 703,542

I think some of the major shifts relate to Bills passed by Congress e.g. The Immigration Reform and Control Act, or IRCA, of 1986, The Immigration Act of 1990, The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act, or IIRAIRA, of 1996, The Legal Immigration Family Equity, or LIFE, Act and LIFE Act Amendments of 2000. I'm not sure there has been any Bills of significance since then that have passed into law.

In particular, The Immigration Act of 1990 (IMMACT90) was signed into law as P.L. 101-649 by President Bush on November 29, 1990. It constituted a major revision of the Immigration and Nationality Act, which remained the basic immigration law. Its primary focus was the numerical limits and preference system regulating permanent legal immigration. Besides legal immigration, the eight-title Act dealt with many other aspects of immigration law ranging from nonimmigrants to criminal aliens to naturalization. This Bill set the numerical limits that we know today. The Immigration Act of 1990 increased the total immigration limit to 700,000 and increased visas by 40 percent. Family reunification was retained as the main immigration criterion, with significant increases in employment-related immigration. The 1990 Act set the numbers and Categories for both FB and EB that remain to this day.(culled from various sources)

The figures by Year from 1820 to 2013 for LPR are in this excel file from DHS

Unbelievably Quiet Today.

Yup. Calm before the storm. We are only a few days away from the BIG visa bulletin.

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Originally Posted by luckycub

Unbelievably Quiet Today.

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Question for Spec and other folks intimately familiar with trackitt data: Is the slowdown in approvals still continuing? Spec had mentioned that since USCIS seems to have shifted much of their manpower towards sending RFEs to EB2I, approvals had slowed down for other categories. This, of course, has possibility of positive impact on spillover to EB2I. Now that bulk of RFEs seem to have been issued, has the approvals pace picked up again?

Follow up question for thought - in previous years, did EB2-ROW and EB1 approvals slow down in July/Aug/Sept when USCIS needs to process a large number of EB2I cases? If that is yes - then combining with the existing slowdown for RFE, USCIS might not have much capacity to do too much more than take care of EB2I RFE and approvals. This would make USCIS enter FY2015 with larger inventory for EB1 and EB2ROW - and help SO in FY2014.

News for progress of both EB2-China and EB3-China in coming months due to the possible availablility of spare visas from FB-China. This would be similar to South Korea each year. I don't know the original source, otherwise I would quote it. This came from http://www.mitbbs.com and was in English.

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Association (AILA) Annual Conference and have good news to share with our clients.

At the conference, officials from the Department of State Visa Office stated that they anticipate “significant movement” in the Visa Bulletin cut-off dates for the China employment-based second preference categories (EB-2) in the upcoming months. Visa Office representatives indicated two reasons for this optimistic outlook: 1) excessive levels of demand in EB-2 category have subsided, and 2) there are several hundred unused visas in the family-based preference categories. To ensure that all immigrant visa numbers available to China in this fiscal year are used, the Visa Office plans to rollover the unused visas allocated to the family-based preference categories and to make them available to the employment-based preference categories. This is a routine procedure that the Visa Office applies to ensure that visa numbers are not wasted before this current fiscal year ends in September.

We do caution that the above is only a prediction from the Visa Office. Experience has shown that numerous factors, such as unexpected surge in demand or faster I-485 processing by the USCIS, may arise that can affect anticipated movements in the Visa Bulletin. Our firm will continue to monitor the Visa Bulletin each month and will notify clients when their priority dates become current.

Edit:- This appears to be the source.

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United States State Department Projects Advancement for EB-3 China

June 24, 2014

Executive Summary

State Department officials project that EB-3 China could advance significantly in the remaining months of the fiscal year, although exact cut -off dates will remain unknown until the next State Department Visa Bulletin is published in early July.


The priority date cut-off for EB-3 China could advance significantly in August 2014, in contrast to earlier projections which suggested that the category would remain static and possibly retrogress during the remainder of fiscal year 2014. The State Department anticipates that unused family-based immigrant visa numbers could be available to be applied to the EB-3 China backlog. Due to unpredictable fluctuations in allocation of immigrant visa numbers, however, the exact cut-off date will not be known until the August Visa Bulletin is published in early July.

The projections were presented during the annual American Immigration Lawyers Association conference late last week.

Edit:- The source of this quote appears to be Fragomen.

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It makes sense that both EB2 and EB3 would benefit, since the "spare" visas should be prorated to the various EB Categories.

I don't believe the news has any impact on the movement for EB3-I. Extra numbers available to China will, however, reduce the allocation available to EB3-ROW, since it does not increase the actual numbers available to EB3. Similarly, it could possibly reduce the numbers available to EB2-I. It does not sound like we are talking about more than a few hundred across both Categories, so the result will be negligible.

PS Theoretically, CO might be able to do something similar with India. I confess i don't know how that might work, when India will exceed 7% use anyway with high EB1 use and spillover. It may be the reason that EB2-I received somewhat more approvals last year than spillover alone would have allowed. I admit to being a little confused, since the predicted movement for EB3-I is very poor and theoretically, they would also benefit. Possibly Indian FB approvals have increased this FY.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Question for Spec and other folks intimately familiar with trackitt data: Is the slowdown in approvals still continuing? Spec had mentioned that since USCIS seems to have shifted much of their manpower towards sending RFEs to EB2I, approvals had slowed down for other categories. This, of course, has possibility of positive impact on spillover to EB2I. Now that bulk of RFEs seem to have been issued, has the approvals pace picked up again?

Follow up question for thought - in previous years, did EB2-ROW and EB1 approvals slow down in July/Aug/Sept when USCIS needs to process a large number of EB2I cases? If that is yes - then combining with the existing slowdown for RFE, USCIS might not have much capacity to do too much more than take care of EB2I RFE and approvals. This would make USCIS enter FY2015 with larger inventory for EB1 and EB2ROW - and help SO in FY2014.

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According to Trackitt, this months approvals are about 40% lower than the corresponding time last month. That is probably slightly exaggerated by the almost total absence of any EB3-WW approvals.

In general, the real slowdown in approvals is in September, but that might also be as a result of September being a "short" month due to visas for the FY running out. September is generally something like a 2 week month. You can look at some of the monthly Trackitt monthly totals for various Categories / Countries in this thread.

Very interesting. Just the fact that China, which used to be such a large consumer of visa numbers, has fallen behind the 7% threshold, is significant news. AFAIU, This doesn't affect EB3I since they were not going to get any more than the usual quota anyways. However, this will take some precious numbers away from EB2I since EB2C will get more than the annual quota now. Essentially, this does not change overall EB allocation at all - just allows EB-C to exceed their annual quotas in both EB2 and EB3 categories so that FB+EB reaches 7%. Am having a hard time believing that China is running below 7% EB+FB level - will have to look up the numbers.

About such a scenario for India, I don't think India will be below 7% (EB+FB) anytime soon.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

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I don't believe the news has any impact on the movement for EB3-I. Extra numbers available to China will, however, reduce the allocation available to EB3-ROW, since it does not increase the actual numbers available to EB3. Similarly, it could possibly reduce the numbers available to EB2-I. It does not sound like we are talking about more than a few hundred across both Categories, so the result will be negligible.

PS Theoretically, CO might be able to do something similar with India. I confess i don't know how that might work, when India will exceed 7% use anyway with high EB1 use and spillover. It may be the reason that EB2-I received somewhat more approvals last year than spillover alone would have allowed. I admit to being a little confused, since the predicted movement for EB3-I is very poor and theoretically, they would also benefit. Possibly Indian FB approvals have increased this FY.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Very interesting. Just the fact that China, which used to be such a large consumer of visa numbers, has fallen behind the 7% threshold, is significant news. AFAIU, This doesn't affect EB3I since they were not going to get any more than the usual quota anyways. However, this will take some precious numbers away from EB2I since EB2C will get more than the annual quota now. Essentially, this does not change overall EB allocation at all - just allows EB-C to exceed their annual quotas in both EB2 and EB3 categories so that FB+EB reaches 7%. Am having a hard time believing that China is running below 7% EB+FB level - will have to look up the numbers.

About such a scenario for India, I don't think India will be below 7% (EB+FB) anytime soon.

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imdeng,

The figures for China last year were:

------- Actual ---- 7%
EB ---- 20,078 -- 11,093
FB ---- 13,732 -- 15,820

Total - 33,810 -- 26,913

While this is a good news for EB2/3 C, this is somewhat a bad news for India and possibly for EB3ROW because the visas from FB are rolled over to EB only next year - not in the same year.

So basically EB2C is going to eat into the SOFAD that otherwise EB2I would get all and EB3C will do the same with EB3ROW numbers as far as current year is concerned.

Sorry folks for the bad news. I hope I am wrong.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

News for progress of both EB2-China and EB3-China in coming months due to the possible availablility of spare visas from FB-China. This would be similar to South Korea each year. I don't know the original source, otherwise I would quote it. This came from http://www.mitbbs.com and was in English.



and



It makes sense that both EB2 and EB3 would benefit, since the "spare" visas should be prorated to the various EB Categories.

I don't believe the news has any impact on the movement for EB3-I. Extra numbers available to China will, however, reduce the allocation available to EB3-ROW, since it does not increase the actual numbers available to EB3. Similarly, it could possibly reduce the numbers available to EB2-I. It does not sound like we are talking about more than a few hundred across both Categories, so the result will be negligible.

PS Theoretically, CO might be able to do something similar with India. I confess i don't know how that might work, when India will exceed 7% use anyway with high EB1 use and spillover. It may be the reason that EB2-I received somewhat more approvals last year than spillover alone would have allowed. I admit to being a little confused, since the predicted movement for EB3-I is very poor and theoretically, they would also benefit. Possibly Indian FB approvals have increased this FY.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

While this is a good news for EB2/3 C, this is somewhat a bad news for India and possibly for EB3ROW because the visas from FB are rolled over to EB only next year - not in the same year.

So basically EB2C is going to eat into the SOFAD that otherwise EB2I would get all and EB3C will do the same with EB3ROW numbers as far as current year is concerned.

Sorry folks for the bad news. I hope I am wrong.

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Q,

I believe you are correct, but the impact should be very low.

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1) excessive levels of demand in EB-2 category have subsided, and

2) there are several hundred unused visas in the family-based preference categories.

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(1) will come from the EB2-C initial allocation.

(2) mentions a few hundred visas, which will be split across EB2 and EB3 at worst.

While every visa number may count, it isn't too earth shattering for EB2-I or EB3-ROW. In EB3, Philippines has a much larger effect, numbering thousands rather than hundreds.

My perspective anyway.