EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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12-23-2011, 09:56 AM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

As gkjppp noted, those statistics are for EB1A and EB1B.

I know we discussed this issue sometime last year. I think Veni may have derived a figure for EB2, but I can't remember for sure.

20% does feel about right for EB2 and is probably mainly driven by mismatches in PERM language and Educational equivalency issues.

If DOL and USCIS used the same criteria, the denial rate would be very low, since it is otherwise fairly quantitative. You either have a Masters or Bachelors + 5 or you don't and the job either requires it or not.

Again, this has been discussed previously. I believe the consensus was that the % of cases where a PERM was approved and no I-140 submitted within 180 days would be quite low.

Any allowance for it would be made within the other factors, rather than adding an additional one.

Personally, I already use 5 different variables per year, per Country - that is 50 variables already.

Please keep highlighting any issues you think about. We may not have discussed them and it is good to revisit some of the old ones from time to time to ensure the thinking is still valid.

Spec, I think we have done all we can. We have good handle on PERM data, I-140 filings and approvals, EB2/3 split, EB3->2 porting. We have some data on duplicate filings - some of which may be diluted from porting data. We certainly would like better and concrete data on that.

One thing we don't have data on is demand destruction from people returning or abandoning the GC process, applications left to die by companies due to lay offs, mergers changes, people unable to keep their old PDs, spouse PERM filing etc. In this case I believe even USCIS or DoS won't be of any help. The only thing that can help is forward movement of dates and the filings reflected in the I-485 inventory. We may get a first glimpse at that next month - but it will contain very limited data at best.
12-23-2011, 11:39 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by iatiam

I know this issue has been beaten to death and I generally agree that the certified expired cases should be considered towards the calculations. But here is a question - what if some one files for PERM and does not proceed to the I140 stage. Does overall TR cover the cases like this?

iatiam,

Spec addressed this several times before.

PERM process is laborious, expensive and time consuming. In most cases if the employee leave the employer before PERM approval, employer withdraw his/her petition.

Once PERM is approved, the employee can retain the PD (forever!) so the chances of not proceeding with i140 are very less (except in extreme cases).

So the bottom line is, various factors and ratios we are using should cover small % of PERMs that may not reach i140 stage.
12-23-2011, 12:46 PM
Kanmani

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Once PERM is approved, the employee can retain the PD (forever!) so the chances of not proceeding with i140 are very less (except in extreme cases).

Veni
Employees' Priority Dates can be retained only after I-140 approval.
After Perm approval if the employee leaves the company, he/she carries nothing.
12-23-2011, 01:31 PM
Mavrick

Until mid 2007 employees were able to retain their priority dates if they had approved PERM. After 2007, employees were able to retain their priority date only if they have approved I-140. Even with approved I-140 there is no guarantee that they can retain the priority date.
12-23-2011, 02:03 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Veni
Employees' Priority Dates can be retained only after I-140 approval.
After Perm approval if the employee leaves the company, he/she carries nothing.

Kanmani,

Yes, that is what i meant!

Once PERM is approved, chances of employee leaving employer before i140 approval are very less!(to be able to retain PD)
12-23-2011, 04:11 PM
bieber

Veni, Kanmani
Regarding 140 approvals there is one important thing to consider, premium processing for 140 was allowed only since June/July of 2009, so people with late 2007 to early 2009 PDs had more difficulties and hence more chance of abandoning the process
12-23-2011, 04:45 PM
bieber

Kanmani,
Just the preparation for 485, I think once we get Jan inventory and Feb bulletin, the calculations will be just like old times :)

Good to see many posts from Spec in last few days
12-23-2011, 04:48 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

Bieber, how is everything going ?

I wonder there is an unusual silence among the immigration ( Eb2) community these days. Where are those poeple who got current in Dec and Jan bulletins ? Is there anything else other than they're busy with I-485 preparations ? Enthusiasm is lacking in other forums too including trackitt.

Does anyone have a clue what is happening ?

Kanmani,

An important thing to now watch out for is approvals for October filers, which ideally should start trickling in January and in February. NSC has processing time of 4 months.

This is what USCIS says about processing times:
"If the office is processing a particular type of application in less time than our processing goal, you will see the processing times expressed in months (for example, if the office is processing naturalization applications in less than our 5 month goal, the processing time will state "Five Months"). However, if that office is taking longer than our processing goal to handle the form type in question, you will see the filing date (e.g., "April 10, 2003") of the last case we processed on the date the website chart was last updated. The charts are updated on or about the 15th day of each month."

So at least NSC is capable of starting approvals as soon as in 2 months, and mostly always less than 4 months on an average. I have a Korean co-worker, whose concurrent application was approved in 2 months, as soon as he got FP done, in a week he got approval.

This will be an important milestone.

Another thing, today 2/23, they still have not updated processing times, otherwise they consistently update around the 15th as they claim. It indicates to me that indeed they are in holiday mode.
12-23-2011, 06:28 PM
mesan123

Happy Holidays & AdvanceNew Year wishes to GURUS & all of you....Hoping this New Year bring Peace & Happiness to all of you :)
12-23-2011, 09:11 PM
qblogfan

Question about 485

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.
12-23-2011, 09:18 PM
qesehmk

qbf ... you really made me happy with this news! I am sure many others on this forum are going to be happy for you.

i personally do not think the title mismatch is such a big deal as long as job duties are same or in increasing order of responsibility. I do not think there should be RFE. But even if there is .... it wlll be a short affair.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.
12-23-2011, 09:23 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

Superlike!!
12-23-2011, 09:27 PM
qblogfan

Q, thank you very much! I appreciate your input.

I fought with the company for many different times, so they started this process this week, but I am not sure whether they can submit my files before the end of this year.

What I did was: I stopped showing up in office for almost one week. I told my direct boss that I would not continue to work there without 485 filed. Also our project was in danger, but now it can last for at least one more year or so. Finally they decided to file 485 for me. It's so much pain to deal with these people.

This process has been full of frustration and humiliation. As a foreign labor, we are under the company's mercy. I don't like this kind of feeling. It's a terrible feeling indeed. I wish I can get over this crap and have a happy ending on this thing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

qbf ... you really made me happy with this news! I am sure many others on this forum are going to be happy for you.

i personally do not think the title mismatch is such a big deal as long as job duties are same or in increasing order of responsibility. I do not think there should be RFE. But even if there is .... it wlll be a short affair.
12-23-2011, 09:37 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

It's fine, job duties are similar and it's just promotion, ur EVL correctly indicates the progression and continued employment.
12-23-2011, 09:42 PM
qblogfan

Nishant, how are you? thank you for your input.

These two titles are almost the same. I don't know any difference between them, but the attorney applied my 3rd H1B and he put this title. These attorneys and CEO never told me anything. They never told me it's promotion or not. I do the same thing in the past 8 years. I have to follow whatever they say.

I hope my GC journey can get a happy ending. Indeed it was much more painful for me than regular folks. It's my bad luck to meet this kind of evil employer. I will definitely move out of this company after GC. I just worry this evil employer may do harm to me when they know I quit from them. They are control freak and never gave me any details of any paperwork.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

It's fine, job duties are similar and it's just promotion, ur EVL correctly indicates the progression and continued employment.
12-23-2011, 09:44 PM
Jonty Rhodes

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Nishant, how are you? thank you for your input.

These two titles are almost the same. I don't know any difference between them, but the attorney applied my 3rd H1B and he put this title. These attorneys and CEO never told me anything. They never told me it's promotion or not. I do the same thing in the past 8 years. I have to follow whatever they say.

I hope my GC journey can get a happy ending. Indeed it was much more painful for me than regular folks. It's my bad luck to meet this kind of evil employer. I will definitely move out of this company after GC. I just worry this evil employer may do harm to me when they know I quit from them. They are control freak and never gave me any details of any paperwork.

Yay, this is a great news. Happy for you, my friend. Have fun this Christmas. Hope you get your GC soon and able to change this job for good.
12-23-2011, 09:48 PM
nishant2200

I never forgotten u my friend, all the personal help n input u gave me during tense time waiting.

Good things will come to us, I have no doubt. I came here to this country with two bags, surviving on 2.99 dollar subway lunch and snickers for dinner, studied hard, worked night shifts. I have complete faith in future.

3 months work after GC, then u can leave, my attorney told me. Amen.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Nishant, how are you? thank you for your input.

These two titles are almost the same. I don't know any difference between them, but the attorney applied my 3rd H1B and he put this title. These attorneys and CEO never told me anything. They never told me it's promotion or not. I do the same thing in the past 8 years. I have to follow whatever they say.

I hope my GC journey can get a happy ending. Indeed it was much more painful for me than regular folks. It's my bad luck to meet this kind of evil employer. I will definitely move out of this company after GC. I just worry this evil employer may do harm to me when they know I quit from them. They are control freak and never gave me any details of any paperwork.
12-23-2011, 09:52 PM
qblogfan

thank you for your note, Merry Christmas to you!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Yay, this is a great news. Happy for you, my friend. Have fun this Christmas. Hope you get your GC soon and able to change this job for good.
12-23-2011, 09:54 PM
qblogfan

My friend, I have the same experience with you. I came here with two suit cases and 2000 dollars. I had 1 dollar hot dog as my lunch most of the time when I was in school.

I hope we all good luck and get GC. I will keep you guys posted.

Thanks again for your advice and support!

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

I never forgotten u my friend, all the personal help n input u gave me during tense time waiting.

Good things will come to us, I have no doubt. I came here to this country with two bags, surviving on 2.99 dollar subway lunch and snickers for dinner, studied hard, worked night shifts. I have complete faith in future.

3 months work after GC, then u can leave, my attorney told me. Amen.
12-23-2011, 11:45 PM
gkjppp

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesan123

Happy Holidays & AdvanceNew Year wishes to GURUS & all of you....Hoping this New Year bring Peace & Happiness to all of you :)

Wishing you all A Very Happy new year and merry X-Mas. Hope new year brings GC's to all of you, if not atleast EAD/AP's.
12-24-2011, 12:58 AM
pdmay2008

Wish you Happy Christmas and New Year.

I wish all of you Happy Christmas and New Year. I Wish every one get current soon.

Thank you all for your support during this long wait.

Going to file my 485 on Jan 1 2012.
12-24-2011, 06:54 AM
qesehmk

in the interest of this thread moved all recent non related posts to http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-pappu-claims .

merry christmas friends and happy holidays.
12-24-2011, 07:02 AM
imdeng

QBF - Very happy for you - I am sure everyone here is rooting for you. Your employer is the worst - I don't know how they can exploit people like this. Anyways - be vigilant - they might try to pull some technicality or other to delay the process. Try to at least get a copy of the filing, especially get an EVL and keep it as a backup so that you can file 485 by yourself if they delay. Fortunately, you have at least until the end of Jan to finish the process. Good luck.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Q, thank you very much! I appreciate your input.

I fought with the company for many different times, so they started this process this week, but I am not sure whether they can submit my files before the end of this year.

What I did was: I stopped showing up in office for almost one week. I told my direct boss that I would not continue to work there without 485 filed. Also our project was in danger, but now it can last for at least one more year or so. Finally they decided to file 485 for me. It's so much pain to deal with these people.

This process has been full of frustration and humiliation. As a foreign labor, we are under the company's mercy. I don't like this kind of feeling. It's a terrible feeling indeed. I wish I can get over this crap and have a happy ending on this thing.
12-24-2011, 07:29 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

Congratulations QBF!

Your freedom is juts few months away .
12-24-2011, 08:34 AM
mesan123

Congrats Qblogfan...ATleast from here hoping your I-485 will go smooth....Just few more months for u to be greened

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Nishant, how are you? thank you for your input.

These two titles are almost the same. I don't know any difference between them, but the attorney applied my 3rd H1B and he put this title. These attorneys and CEO never told me anything. They never told me it's promotion or not. I do the same thing in the past 8 years. I have to follow whatever they say.

I hope my GC journey can get a happy ending. Indeed it was much more painful for me than regular folks. It's my bad luck to meet this kind of evil employer. I will definitely move out of this company after GC. I just worry this evil employer may do harm to me when they know I quit from them. They are control freak and never gave me any details of any paperwork.
12-24-2011, 11:11 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

qblogfan,

I am happy to finally hear the good news!

The change in Job Title is of no consequence, since you say the job duties are unchanged.
12-24-2011, 12:54 PM
srd4gc

nishant, did you get FP notices from NSC? I am still waiting...

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

It's fine, job duties are similar and it's just promotion, ur EVL correctly indicates the progression and continued employment.
12-24-2011, 02:26 PM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Guys, finally the evil employer decided to file 485 for me after fighting for one month. It was a crazy process.

Now I got a draft version of 485. I noticed one problem: when my I140 was filed, they put my title as "Lead Analyst" and now they put "Senior Analyst" title on my I485. On my G325A form, they put 2003-2010 Lead Analyst, 2010-present, Senior Analyst. My third H1B (2010-2013) had the tile "Senior Analyst". The job duties are exactly the same. Will this be a problem? If they send out a RFE, will they ask why the title on 485 is different from the approved I140? Indeed these two job titles have the same job duties, nothing different.

QBF, congratulations, finally freedom is in sight for you. You are an asset to this forum. The I140 job title is the future job title as requested as of that time, as long as a same or similar job title with similar kind of duties, work profile and responsibilities is submitted on the 485 EVL it should be fine. The G325 form is more of a log for the last 5 years. All the best, keep pushing your employer and attorney for the filing sooner. Iam sure once you get greened your current employer itself will start treating you differently and yes the world is open after that anyway. Good luck and all the best.
12-24-2011, 03:20 PM
frenzyrider

Guys, need an immediate help.

My spouse is the primary applicant on our 485/EAD/AP application. The application is pending with USCIS. However, there is a funeral and she needs to travel to India within next 48 hours. I know that one should not travel on a pending AP due to risk of abandonment but she has a H1 stamped (validity till 2013). From what I have heard one can re-enter US if you a have a valid H1 even if you have a pending AOS/AP, etc.

Does someone know about it?

TIA
-Frenzy
12-24-2011, 06:18 PM
vp5856

QSP really happening Q1-12?

Gurus, any thoughts on this -
I have gone thru trackitt dashboard/postings with recently approved I-485. I hardly see any cases of approval with the filings based on VB Sep11 (PD 15APR07) and after.
Given I-485 processing takes 3-5 months, wondering if QSP/monthly SO is actually happening; given 07/07 pending approvals getting cleared slowly though.

Do you thing I will be approved in Feb/March (Q2-12 QSP) or later (Q4-12 no QSP) in the summer or early Q1/13 ?

My details -
FD 11/02/11.
ND 11/08/11.
PD 09/22/07.
EAD and AP 12/10/11.
FP scheduled on 01/05/12 (FP appt letter 12/10/11).
12-24-2011, 06:52 PM
desi4green

Greened :)

Hi All,

Wanted to let you all know that we got our GC's today. Here are the details.

Dec 16 - Card Production Ordered
Dec 17 - Soft LUD
Dec 20 - Decision Email and State changed to decision
Dec 21 - Got welcome notice in mail
Dec 24 - Got our cards

For those wondering how,

We had two cases (EB3 - 2005 and EB2-2007). We were part of July 2007 fiasco and submitted 485 for the EB3 case. Last year we got an RFE to pick one of the two cases. We picked the 2007 EB2 as dates were moving faster.

On Dec 1, became current so submitted SR asking if we were preadjudicated, answer was yes and office was very nice to go ahead and ask for status from NSC. Dec 14th got a reply that wait like everyone else in the line. Dec 16th got the approval.

Wish u all the very best of luck. Thanks for all the helps that Q and folks have provided.

Thanks
12-24-2011, 07:05 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by desi4green

Hi All,

Wanted to let you all know that we got our GC's today. Here are the details.

Dec 16 - Card Production Ordered
Dec 17 - Soft LUD
Dec 20 - Decision Email and State changed to decision
Dec 21 - Got welcome notice in mail
Dec 24 - Got our cards

For those wondering how,

We had two cases (EB3 - 2005 and EB2-2007). We were part of July 2007 fiasco and submitted 485 for the EB3 case. Last year we got an RFE to pick one of the two cases. We picked the 2007 EB2 as dates were moving faster.

On Dec 1, became current so submitted SR asking if we were preadjudicated, answer was yes and office was very nice to go ahead and ask for status from NSC. Dec 14th got a reply that wait like everyone else in the line. Dec 16th got the approval.

Wish u all the very best of luck. Thanks for all the helps that Q and folks have provided.

Thanks

Congratulations!

Seems they have visa numbers available.
12-24-2011, 07:07 PM
desi4green

Thanks. Yes based on the conversations earlier, I was not expecting but I guess lucks on my side.
12-24-2011, 07:21 PM
vp5856

Congratulations desi4green!
suninphx, probably you answered my question, right?

Thanks!
12-24-2011, 07:48 PM
qesehmk

Frenzy .... yes she can reenter on H1. No worries whatsoever.

Quote:

Originally Posted by frenzyrider

Guys, need an immediate help.

My spouse is the primary applicant on our 485/EAD/AP application. The application is pending with USCIS. However, there is a funeral and she needs to travel to India within next 48 hours. I know that one should not travel on a pending AP due to risk of abandonment but she has a H1 stamped (validity till 2013). From what I have heard one can re-enter US if you a have a valid H1 even if you have a pending AOS/AP, etc.

Does someone know about it?

TIA
-Frenzy

Quote:

Originally Posted by desi4green

Hi All,

Wanted to let you all know that we got our GC's today. Here are the details.

Dec 16 - Card Production Ordered
Dec 17 - Soft LUD
Dec 20 - Decision Email and State changed to decision
Dec 21 - Got welcome notice in mail
Dec 24 - Got our cards

For those wondering how,

We had two cases (EB3 - 2005 and EB2-2007). We were part of July 2007 fiasco and submitted 485 for the EB3 case. Last year we got an RFE to pick one of the two cases. We picked the 2007 EB2 as dates were moving faster.

On Dec 1, became current so submitted SR asking if we were preadjudicated, answer was yes and office was very nice to go ahead and ask for status from NSC. Dec 14th got a reply that wait like everyone else in the line. Dec 16th got the approval.

Wish u all the very best of luck. Thanks for all the helps that Q and folks have provided.

Thanks

desi - congratulations. Enjoy the rest of the year .... take off!
12-24-2011, 08:15 PM
suninphx

Guys,

Another stab at trackitt data . Here are I485(primary) number of applications for EB2I

Jan - July 2007 --- 775

Aug07- Mar 08 ----378 ( if we can add another say 50 for remaining days of March it becomes ~425).

so thats almost 45% less filings. We can attribute some percentage of it to people loosing interest and not updating trackitt, people who did not file yet etc. But still decline seems to be high.

Just thought of sharing while we wait for actual data.
12-24-2011, 08:17 PM
suninphx

Quote:

Originally Posted by vp5856

Congratulations desi4green!
suninphx, probably you answered my question, right?

Thanks!

vp5856- common understanding on this forum is that QSP has been deployed.
12-24-2011, 09:19 PM
vp5856

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

vp5856- common understanding on this forum is that QSP has been deployed.

Thank you, suninphx.
My heart goes to all new filers, particularly to those with PD post 07/2007 and early 2008. I know what you are/were going thru without...
- vp5856
12-24-2011, 09:54 PM
Pdmar08

Quote:

Originally Posted by vp5856

Thank you, suninphx.
My heart goes to all new filers, particularly to those with PD post 07/2007 and early 2008. I know what you are/were going thru without...
- vp5856

Vp,
This sounds tragic. What did I miss?
12-24-2011, 10:01 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by srd4gc

nishant, did you get FP notices from NSC? I am still waiting...

Nope, let's see the Post 485 filing thread started by our friend leo. I would also advise following the trackitt thread of people who filed in December and for a hint of things to come, the people who filed in november thread.

You will see on those, two people just claiming that dec filers and NSC, and they got FP notice. But mostly if you see people who filed in Nov thread, for NSC, it is taking at least a month after the receipt notice date, to send FP notice. And EAD/AP is taking like 40-50 days from notice date. Hopefully they ramp it up.

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