EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Hi Pedro,

Just for my understanding..

Do you mean that approvals will start coming for those who had been allocated an visa number already before Sept 31.

(or)

Fresh visas will be allocated from FY2014 quota. If so, what do you think the max number of visas which can be allocated in next month?

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Fresh visas from the 2014 quota. My read of the law is that the USCIS can use 27% Q1 portion of the 40K EB2 quota (note, not EB2I) to satisfy any application that is current. So, technically, if very few EB2ROW applications are current (due to the PERM slowdown, perhaps further affected by the government shut down) all of the visas can be allocated to EB2I if required. However, that would result in an overallocation of visas to Eb2I (effectively quarterly spill over), and I don't think CO is in the mood for QSPs, so I think he has calculated that there isn't much left over demand from EB2I. I don't think more than 3K applicants are left over (not including first time I485 applicants, who's applications are for the most part not likely to be processed by the end of October).

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Fresh visas from the 2014 quota. My read of the law is that the USCIS can use 27% Q1 portion of the 40K EB2 quota (note, not EB2I) to satisfy any application that is current. So, technically, if very few EB2ROW applications are current (due to the PERM slowdown, perhaps further affected by the government shut down) all of the visas can be allocated to EB2I if required. However, that would result in an overallocation of visas to Eb2I (effectively quarterly spill over), and I don't think CO is in the mood for QSPs, so I think he has calculated that there isn't much left over demand from EB2I. I don't think more than 3K applicants are left over (not including first time I485 applicants, who's applications are for the most part not likely to be processed by the end of October).

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Thanks for taking your time to clarify..

Pedro, Congratulations on acquiring your Permanent Resident Status!

Theoretically, DOL will stop processing PERM and wage determination from today. Let's say if this drama lasts for a month (like it did in 90's), will it mean higher # of SOFADs for EB2I? or does it improve the possibility of CO using QSP?

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

Theoretically, DOL will stop processing PERM and wage determination from today. Let's say if this drama lasts for a month (like it did in 90's), will it mean higher # of SOFADs for EB2I? or does it improve the possibility of CO using QSP?

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If it only lasts a month, I don't think it increases the possibility of QSP, but if it goes for 2 to 3 months, then I think he's going to start thinking about it. However, if it lasts 2 to 3 months, we will all have other things to worry about.

Thanks K.

First time in 17 years and it has happened...The Govt Shutdown....

DOL's iCert system is unavailable. Both PERM labor & LCAs for H1B will be impacted

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Originally Posted by venkat

First time in 17 years and it has happened...The Govt Shutdown....

DOL's iCert system is unavailable. Both PERM labor & LCAs for H1B will be impacted

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Any guesses on how this would impact the Greencard issues? Several sites point to partial impact to USCIS but no clear information.

Murthy
Mintz

Government shutdown and Obamacare discussion moved to
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...nment-Shutdown

Looks like TSC started giving approvals today. Good Luck every one who are waiting.

I believe they can issue VISAs as long as dates are current in the VISA Bulletin. That's how EB2I got many approvals between Jan 2012 and Apr 2012. After that it went unavailable for that year. I know the law says different, but it is COs discretion whether to issue VISAs or retrogress internally.

On a different note, came to know today from a person in one of famous (or should I say infamous) desi consultancy companies notorious for misusing EB1 and B1s and H1s that the firm is taking some actions to protect itself from the wrath of US government in case CIR passes (because they usually have 100% of their employees on H1bs). They are initiating mass GC applications in EB1C and EB2 so that by the time CIR passes, many of them would get GCs and they can show that they have actually employed less number of H1Bs and more PRs and Citizens (if it applies).

If this is happening then EB2I people should get ready to wait another 10 years.

P.S : I personally know one person who just moved from India (in a managerial role) in one of those companies, just to get GC. That person was promised GC in EB1C to make him move here.

Sad but looks like it's happening.

That company is TCS . This is because CTS and Wipro were already doing it. Infy is probably not in the picture with the latest management issues etc.
Once TCS gets them GC, most of those folks will leave anyways. They didnt do it till now for that reason. And the managers they bring to this country are fit only
to manage herds of folks who will jump from building if asked. I personally knew a few of them on L1 A who are asked to apply for eb1c

Speechless

Hello Guys,

I got following two messages for I485 at separate times today, what does the second message means. Appreciate your QUICK RESPONSE on this.

1. On October 2, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

2. On October 2, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Hello Guys,

I got following two messages for I485 at separate times today, what does the second message means. Appreciate your QUICK RESPONSE on this.

1. On October 2, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

2. On October 2, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

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Congrats on your approval! Don't worry about those messages. You get bunch of them at least six per applicant until it gets delivered and status moves back and forth between CPO and Decision. It is all part of this madness. Enjoy green life.

Vkkpnm,
Congrats on your approval. Enjoy your green life.

VK congrats. The second message is the act of government making a record of you as a GC holder. The first of course is the act of printing and mailing your GC.

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Hello Guys,

I got following two messages for I485 at separate times today, what does the second message means. Appreciate your QUICK RESPONSE on this.

1. On October 2, 2013, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283.
This step applies to applications that result in an applicant receiving a card (such as a "green card") or other document (such as a naturalization certificate, employment authorization document, travel document, or advance parole). Applications will be in this step from the time the order to produce the card/document is given until the card/document is produced and mailed to the applicant. You can expect to receive your card/document within 30 days of the approval of your application.

2. On October 2, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

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Thanks everyone for quick reply. Actually I have tickets booked on 10-Oct for India visit for my family. I will be going with them in case we received GC before that otherwise I will be staying here until I receive GC and then fly to India. My concern is now, looking at the second message, If I receive welcome notice asking to complete any ADIT processing after 10-Oct when my family has already left for India, what are my options. Should I cancel my tickets for my family until I receive physical card? Earlier we got EAD/AP for myself and my wife. And my son AP was approved a day before but still waiting for physical document.

1. What are the chances that I receive welcome notice asking for any ADIT processing?
2. Generally in how many days you get physical card after receiving CPO mail?

Hey Guys,

Let us now worry about what companies like Infy, TCS. Wipro, Cognizant and others do.

Yes, there are problems in some cases and we know about the way these companies handle the GC scenario (due to our connections with these companies) but believe me there are others who handle the situation in a similar or worser way. To our eyes, yes it looks like they are abusing but i am sure you would agree that these discussions do not lead us to better predictions. So lets leave the discussions and move on with our interesting predictions.

Have a bright day
~Arjun

Hi Guys,

Do you think CO is impacted because of the Govt Shutdown?

If he is not working will we get the visa bulletin for this month on time?

Do you think he will have enough data to justify a forward or backward movement? or will he play it safe by not moving the dates at all?

Lot of questions to think about.

btw, what happened to Spec and Matt?

Folks,

Has anyone seen this? If this is true and its really moving forward, this is good news overall

http://immigrationlegalblog.com/2013...igration-bill/

Judiciary committee approving it needs to be followed by congress and senate. Then only it goes for president's signature.

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Originally Posted by dexter2010

Folks,

Has anyone seen this? If this is true and its really moving forward, this is good news overall

http://immigrationlegalblog.com/2013...igration-bill/

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Judiciary committee approving it needs to be followed by congress and senate. Then only it goes for president's signature.

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Thanks for the clarification. I guess I was just excited to see some positive news after a long lull.

That's understandable dexter.

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Originally Posted by dexter2010

Thanks for the clarification. I guess I was just excited to see some positive news after a long lull.

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I guess everyone has gone into the deep sleep mode :)

I was looking at trackitt data and saw that there are 62 approvals for OCt 2013. This number suggests that it Oct we are getting more than the monthly allowed visas. It can be one of the two scenarios:
1. Quarterly Spillovers have been brought into effect
2. People had been allocated visa numbers during FY 2013 and are being granted the approvals in OCT.

I think it is most likely scenario 1 that is contributing to the large number of approvals. If that is the case, the dates might actually move forward in Nov.
I do not think that it is scenario 2 as the approvals stopped around Sep 20, 2013 indicating that the annual limits had been reached.

Any inputs from any Gurus ?

Thanks Jagan for infusing life into this forum. Wow 62 approvals in 4 working days is a great thing..

I assume Gurus confirm that scenario1 is the case as i am someone who missed the boat by 10 days and any little forward movement will help.