EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

Looks like USCIS lost my spouse's RFE reply.

Received RFE(Myself and Spouse) on May 22nd and attorney replied in separately packages, primary was received by USCIS few days earlier than spouse RFE(USPS messed it up here).

Myself: Medicals, Sup-J (approved on 06/27), Status
Spouse: Medicals.

On July 16th they have again sent RFE for spouse and today we received it.

Resubmission of evidence.
"USCIS issued a request for evidence on May 22,2018, for which USCIS received a response on June 11, 2018. This evidence is not contained in the record. Please resubmit."

Do we need to again redo the medicals or can we submit the one which we took on May 22nd, not sure how much we need to pay to doctor again(even for copies).

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No need to redo medicals, just tell the doctor that it got lost in transit, he will most probably bill you to fill out the form again. Use fedex or ups this time. Good luck.

Thanks for the reply. got a copy from the immigration doctor, they charged me $25 and I sent it myself to USCIS instead of attorney as they were charging $250.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

One of my friend has Nov 09 PD and he got RFE email today.

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FYI : Received RFE text notifications for the dependents and me couple days ago. Not sure of the details - I will update you guys once I receive the details in mail.

Agree with you folks that there is nothing to be excited (Gone are those days - after multiple RFEs over years you know that its BS) about till the date becomes current and stays current for few months.

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

Freedom at last Jagan :)

Many congratulations and thanks for contributing to this forum.

I am sure a celebration is in order. Enjoy!

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

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Congratulations Jagan.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

---

Jagan,

Many congratulations.

I suspect it brings some real sense of stability to you.

Spec

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Employment-Based Preference Categories
Further retrogression of the EB-1 Worldwide final action date cannot be ruled out in September, but there will be a recovery of the date in October.

The final action date for EB-1 Worldwide China and EB-1 India will hold at January 1, 2012 in August, and again for September, with the anticipated recovery of visa availability in October. Charlie will continue to watch trends over the summer and is working closely with USCIS to determine applicant demand which will be eligible for processing in October.

EB-4 India Tracks EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in August. As predicted, in August, EB-4 India joins EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico, with a final action date of February 8, 2016, due to an influx of demand in May, June, and early July.EB-4 India will return to current in October.

There is a slim chance of forward movement in EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in September. If that occurs, the date will likely hold for a few months. Charlie is cautious about advancing this category to avoid a subsequent retrogression. The ever-increasing availability of statistical data required for the determination of this date could lead to slightly more regular movements throughout FY 2019, rather than just during the final quarter.

China. EB-2 China advances two months to March 1, 2015 and EB-3 China advances 1.5 years to July 1, 2014 in August. EB-3 China, which had recently retrogressed due to significant downgrade demand, has subsided somewhat, allowing for this forward movement. At this point there has not been a dramatic increase in EB-2 China demand based on movement of that date, which is allowing some of these numbers to fall to EB-3. Charlie cautions against expectations of regular advancement of EB-3 China during FY-2019, as such movements are dependent on the development of future demand patterns.

India. EB-2 India will hold at March 15, 2009 in August and is anticipated to remain there through this fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide demand has picked up sufficiently enough to use the remaining EB-2 numbers which had allowed the India EB-2 date to advance. Although Charlie will review the numbers again later this month, unless there is an unlikely dramatic dip in worldwide demand that would justify advancing EB-2 India further, it will continue to hold.

In our last column we reported that EB-2 Worldwide demand is increasing and might require Charlie to impose a final action date before the end of the fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide will remain current in August. As noted last month, if a final action date is imposed in September, the category will return to current in October.

EB-3 India will advance two months in August to January 1, 2009. The gap in final action dates between EB-2 India (March 15, 2009) and EB-3 India (January 1, 2009) continues to narrow, leaving only 2.5 months between these categories. As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

EB-5. EB-5 China Non-Regional Center and Regional Center will continue to hold at August 1, 2014 in August and is expected to advance one week either in September or in October.

EB-5 Vietnam Non-Regional Center and Regional Center similarly holds at August 1, 2014. Charlie expects this category to advance to a 2016 date in October but cautions that the category it is likely to retrogress again once it hits its annual limit by spring.

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Originally Posted by rainmaker12

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

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Thanks for the heads up on Charlie's Check-In.

P.S. The June CP figures have been published, but I'll let redsox continue the outstanding work in publishing those in the forum.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

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Congratulations, Jagan01! You are clearing the line for us!!

Jagan - many congratulations !!

Jagan - Many Congratulations!!!

It is great to see longstanding members reaching the endzone. Hope the trend continues.

Interesting development: Lawsuit challenging counting of dependents in the quota numbers for EB-5. According to the thread, if this lawsuit wins then similar case can be made for other EB categories.

https://twitter.com/David_J_Bier/sta...95437476958208

Jagan.. congratulations!

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Originally Posted by rainmaker12

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

EB-3 India - As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

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The pending PERM numbers are very clear. EB3I will move ahead of 2I and stay there as far as the eye can see..

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I'll let redsox continue the outstanding work in publishing those in the forum.

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Did not realize what I signed up for..........................Machine broken, had to get new machine. After seeing your message tried to run my program on new machine, then realized, I did not install Acrobat Professional and Python Pips. Finally did those installs and here is the June data.

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	South Korea	Vietnam	ROW-SK-VET	Total
EB1	00	04	02	01	20	0	209	236
EB2	10	11	07	37	113	06	105	289
EB3	44	99	15	330	34	13	354	889
EB4	07	28	02	07	14	5	147	210
EB5	570	42	10	02	51	00	185	860
Total	631	184	36	377	232	24	1000	2484

Year to date Monthly Family Immigrant Visa Issuance.

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	ROW	Total
Total	9183	12632	21524	11272	105418	160029

YTD Grand Total both EB+FB

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	ROW	Total
Total	14868	13858	21862	15656	119647	183052

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Did not realize what I signed up for..........................Machine broken, had to get new machine. After seeing your message tried to run my program on new machine, then realized, I did not install Acrobat Professional and Python Pips. Finally did those installs and here is the June data.

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redsox,

I absolutely sympathize!

I'm on a relatively new machine as well and most of my web based library of immigration related stuff is still on the old machine.

Thanks for the good work.

What is the expectation for the EB-2I advancement in the coming months? Anyone?
Is there any chance of the final action dates getting past May 1st anytime soon? What are the best Vs worst case scenarios?
Thanks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by almost

What is the expectation for the EB-2I advancement in the coming months? Anyone?
Is there any chance of the final action dates getting past May 1st anytime soon? What are the best Vs worst case scenarios?
Thanks

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Current approvals and future RFEs all the way up to December, 2009 are raining heavily. There is definitely something brewing behind the scenes. But I have been disappointed so many times by optimistic projections, so I won't predict anything, just observe!

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

The pending PERM numbers are very clear. EB3I will move ahead of 2I and stay there as far as the eye can see..

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What PERM numbers are you referring to?

Iatiam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vedu

Current approvals and future RFEs all the way up to December, 2009 are raining heavily. There is definitely something brewing behind the scenes. But I have been disappointed so many times by optimistic projections, so I won't predict anything, just observe!

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Based on the trackitt data, it appears that almost all of them are issued by NSC. I don't know what is brewing behind the scenes at NSC. TSC is not issuing anything beyond May 09 PD.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

---

Many a congrats, 10 yrs and finally, so happy for you Jagan. Lets hope this trend continues for others, good luck to everyone who is waiting/pending..

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Originally Posted by hope21

Many a congrats, 10 yrs and finally, so happy for you Jagan. Lets hope this trend continues for others, good luck to everyone who is waiting/pending..

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Originally Posted by skpanda

Jagan.. congratulations!

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Jagan - Many Congratulations!!!

It is great to see longstanding members reaching the endzone. Hope the trend continues.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Jagan - many congratulations !!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by vedu

Congratulations, Jagan01! You are clearing the line for us!!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Jagan,

Many congratulations.

I suspect it brings some real sense of stability to you.

Spec

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Originally Posted by jackbrown_890

Congratulations Jagan.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Freedom at last Jagan :)

Many congratulations and thanks for contributing to this forum.

I am sure a celebration is in order. Enjoy!

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Thanks everyone for the wishes and good luck to everyone. Will keep visiting the forum every once in a while to see everyone get greened.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by rainmaker12

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Employment-Based Preference Categories
Further retrogression of the EB-1 Worldwide final action date cannot be ruled out in September, but there will be a recovery of the date in October.

The final action date for EB-1 Worldwide China and EB-1 India will hold at January 1, 2012 in August, and again for September, with the anticipated recovery of visa availability in October. Charlie will continue to watch trends over the summer and is working closely with USCIS to determine applicant demand which will be eligible for processing in October.

EB-4 India Tracks EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in August. As predicted, in August, EB-4 India joins EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico, with a final action date of February 8, 2016, due to an influx of demand in May, June, and early July.EB-4 India will return to current in October.

There is a slim chance of forward movement in EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in September. If that occurs, the date will likely hold for a few months. Charlie is cautious about advancing this category to avoid a subsequent retrogression. The ever-increasing availability of statistical data required for the determination of this date could lead to slightly more regular movements throughout FY 2019, rather than just during the final quarter.

China. EB-2 China advances two months to March 1, 2015 and EB-3 China advances 1.5 years to July 1, 2014 in August. EB-3 China, which had recently retrogressed due to significant downgrade demand, has subsided somewhat, allowing for this forward movement. At this point there has not been a dramatic increase in EB-2 China demand based on movement of that date, which is allowing some of these numbers to fall to EB-3. Charlie cautions against expectations of regular advancement of EB-3 China during FY-2019, as such movements are dependent on the development of future demand patterns.

India. EB-2 India will hold at March 15, 2009 in August and is anticipated to remain there through this fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide demand has picked up sufficiently enough to use the remaining EB-2 numbers which had allowed the India EB-2 date to advance. Although Charlie will review the numbers again later this month, unless there is an unlikely dramatic dip in worldwide demand that would justify advancing EB-2 India further, it will continue to hold.

In our last column we reported that EB-2 Worldwide demand is increasing and might require Charlie to impose a final action date before the end of the fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide will remain current in August. As noted last month, if a final action date is imposed in September, the category will return to current in October.

EB-3 India will advance two months in August to January 1, 2009. The gap in final action dates between EB-2 India (March 15, 2009) and EB-3 India (January 1, 2009) continues to narrow, leaving only 2.5 months between these categories. As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

EB-5. EB-5 China Non-Regional Center and Regional Center will continue to hold at August 1, 2014 in August and is expected to advance one week either in September or in October.

EB-5 Vietnam Non-Regional Center and Regional Center similarly holds at August 1, 2014. Charlie expects this category to advance to a 2016 date in October but cautions that the category it is likely to retrogress again once it hits its annual limit by spring.

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Why is this data (Info) relevant ? August was published 2 weeks ago. We are looking forward to September bulletin.

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Originally Posted by lville

Why is this data (Info) relevant ? August was published 2 weeks ago. We are looking forward to September bulletin.

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Because it is CO's comments made AFTER the August VB was published (the article was published 2 days ago).

It may mention some movements made in August, but in general it discusses September and beyond.

I didn't think it was that difficult to comprehend. Obviously I was mistaken.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Because it is CO's comments made AFTER the August VB was published (the article was published 2 days ago).

It may mention some movements made in August, but in general it discusses September and beyond.

I didn't think it was that difficult to comprehend. Obviously I was mistaken.

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Lol. Thank you.

Some April 2018 EB3I filers are getting Interview Dates already. They have been finger printed and got their EAD Combo cards. So I expect some of them will get approved in this FY itself.

It drastically reduces the chances of any EB3 Visas from 'falling up' !

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Originally Posted by Pundit Arjun

FYI : Received RFE text notifications for the dependents and me couple days ago. Not sure of the details - I will update you guys once I receive the details in mail.

Agree with you folks that there is nothing to be excited (Gone are those days - after multiple RFEs over years you know that its BS) about till the date becomes current and stays current for few months.

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Details include request for - I693, Evidence of lawful entry [i-94], G-325A, Schedule J. Again not amped up since there is no way this could be the last RFE before getting greened --> [Too early to ask these for my PD being the reason]

Congrats Jagan!

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

---

I have just my PERM labor got approved ( employer change labor , original priority date - June 2010 , ) . Confused filing I-140 in eb2 or eb3 , Appreciate any insights making decision to file I-140 eb2 or eb3 . Thank you much.

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Originally Posted by ajay1234

I have just my PERM labor got approved ( employer change labor , original priority date - June 2010 , ) . Confused filing I-140 in eb2 or eb3 , Appreciate any insights making decision to file I-140 eb2 or eb3 . Thank you much.

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I'd say, just wait it out for either EB2 or EB3 to be current for your priority date and just file for i-140 and i-485 concurrently. I suppose u can renew your H1 based on previous company's I-140 for 3 years or current company's PERM for 1 year ( YMMV)

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Originally Posted by derekjbj

I'd say, just wait it out for either EB2 or EB3 to be current for your priority date and just file for i-140 and i-485 concurrently. I suppose u can renew your H1 based on previous company's I-140 for 3 years or current company's PERM for 1 year ( YMMV)

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How could he wait? PERM will expire.

Based on what Specs said earlier you can downgrade to EB3 anytime if you have I-140 in EB2 but not sure if vice versa is possible. Considering the density in EB2 vs EB3, I would opt for EB3. Also in last few years there are horizontal spillovers in EB3 but not in EB2. So EB3 is best bet based on my limited understanding.

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Originally Posted by delguy

How could he wait? PERM will expire.

Based on what Specs said earlier you can downgrade to EB3 anytime if you have I-140 in EB2 but not sure if vice versa is possible. Considering the density in EB2 vs EB3, I would opt for EB3. Also in last few years there are horizontal spillovers in EB3 but not in EB2. So EB3 is best bet based on my limited understanding.

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TRUE.

An approved labor certification is valid for 180 days following approval. The USCIS will reject any I-140 filings made by employers after the labor certifications have "expired."

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EB-3 India will advance two months in August to January 1, 2009. The gap in final action dates between EB-2 India (March 15, 2009) and EB-3 India (January 1, 2009) continues to narrow, leaving only 2.5 months between these categories. As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

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Based on above CO's statement, I'm guessing EB3 can advance upto Jan 2010. Also all EB2-I applications upto March are getting approved, this is a huge sign for future movement.

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Based on above CO's statement, I'm guessing EB3 can advance upto Jan 2010. Also all EB2-I applications upto March are getting approved, this is a huge sign for future movement.

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are you saying that there will be movement for Eb2-I in September bulletin?

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

are you saying that there will be movement for Eb2-I in September bulletin?

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It will depends how EB2-ROW approvals are coming in first two weeks of August, if approvals slowed or paused then less movement or else good movement.

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Originally Posted by derekjbj

I'd say, just wait it out for either EB2 or EB3 to be current for your priority date and just file for i-140 and i-485 concurrently. I suppose u can renew your H1 based on previous company's I-140 for 3 years or current company's PERM for 1 year ( YMMV)

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Not sure of 2010 dates will be current in next 1 yr for EB2&3I

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Originally Posted by ajay1234

I have just my PERM labor got approved ( employer change labor , original priority date - June 2010 , ) . Confused filing I-140 in eb2 or eb3 , Appreciate any insights making decision to file I-140 eb2 or eb3 . Thank you much.

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If I were in your shoes, at this moment in time, I would go for EB3. EB3 has much lower density, has horizontal spillover - and is likely to cross EB2I pretty soon.