Its out !
9/1/2008 it is.....
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2014.html
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Its out !
9/1/2008 it is.....
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2014.html
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2014.html
July Bulletin -- EB2 India - 01 Sept 2008.
July VB is out - EB2-I September 2008.
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...july-2014.html
Allowing for a 5% denial rate, based on the April Inventory, there are about 12k EB2-I cases beyond a Cut Off Date of 01JUN09.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Movement to 01JUN09 in FY2014 would cover around 18k EB2-I cases. If 15k further visas are available in Q4, then 3k would fall into FY2015. It might be possible to approve those in October 2014, using the EB2-I initial allocation for FY2015.
Also, the Inventory will not show porting cases as EB2, so the figure is probably higher than that. Cases since November 2013 with a PD of pre 01SEP08 can now be processed from July 2014, when the EB2 PD becomes current.
EB2-I would need substantial SO in FY2015 to exhaust the current Inventory and allow dates to move beyond 01MAY10. I'm not convinced that will happen.
Unless there are substantial FB visas available for FY2015, it is likely the EB2-I COD will have to retrogress in the November 2014 VB and stay retrogressed until Q4, when the amount of SO available for the FY can be determined.
Spec - My PD is 30th March 2010. How many EB2 cases are between June 2009 and March 2010?
Spec, Q, Vizcard, sportsfan33, imdeng, kanmani and others
The user (u/nagabhyrava) who posted the email communication on trackitt said the following in two different posts. I want to understand how much truth there is to it?
Post 1 :
India EB2 will not surpass China EB2, otherwise China EB2 will be able to share some spillovers.
Come back in September to find out whether what I said has turned out to be true.
Sorry I can't share the reason or rationale.
But India EB2 will be just a little bit behind China EB2, so that all "unused visa numbers" will go only to India EB2. In the mean time, China EB2 has nothing to complain because they will stay ahead of India EB2.
Post 2:
The logic is very simple.
Backlog in India EB2 has to cleared, otherwise it'll snowball into an ugly number that will embarrass somebody in Washington D.C.
So the spillover has to go to India EB2.
In order to achieve that India EB2 has to stay behind China EB2 to ensure that no spillover is shared by China EB2, or to minimize the spillover being shared by China EB2.
So the key of the key in predicting your opportunity is to closely monitor the China EB2 cut-off dates and fully understand the data behind these dates.
Thanks!
If dates are moved in Q4 2015 after the SO can be determined, wont we run the risk of wasting visa numbers as new I485s cannot be processed to completion in Q4 itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
This year it turned out the actual allocation was at least 5K more than what it is turning out to be.. I understand next year will be tough with no EB5 and more EB2ROW..
In any case, will it be better for CO to sit on more inventory(may move the dates till end of 2010 and get more inventory sometime next year)?
Spec,Q and Other gurus,
How far do you think the cut off dates will go for EB2I this year? I see June 1,2009 mentioned. Any chances for going beyond that?
P.S : I am being shamelessly selfish here. I have a June 29, 2009 PD. I don't care about when I would get greened but just want an opportunity to file for I-485. That's all.
Bulletin is out, India hits Sep 08!! Good luck to all who are current!
/bulletin/2014/visa-bulletin-for-july-2014.html
Folks the official bulletin is out. EB2-I is back at 01-Sep-08.
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...july-2014.html
Again, allowing 5% denial, the current Inventory shows around 10.5k cases between the COD of 01APR10 you would require and a COD of 01JUN09.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
So I need 10.5K + Porting number i.e. close to 14K-15K spillover to get greened. Are we expecting around 10K SO only next year?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
If CO moves the dates beyond 01MAY10, then he needs to have sufficient visa numbers available to approve all the existing cases that have been preadjudicated who will become Current. That means the Inventory has to be nearly exhausted before he can do so. Personally, I don't think that point will be reached in FY2015. The amount of SO available in FY2015 will only cover a proportion of the existing preadjudicated cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
EB2-C will move beyond 01MAY10 in FY2015, since its almost certain they will have far fewer than 2.8k cases left in the Inventory going into FY2015. That's going to feel quite painful to Indian applicants.
Glass half full view is that we might some SO from EB2 C too :) .......... ofcourse it'll be negligible but to the person who gets approved because of it, he/she will be thankful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
So here are 3 key takeaways from this Visa Bulletin:
1. EB2I moved to where it should've been all year along (but was technically retrogressed because of portings). This movement is only partial and there should be further movement in next bulletin.
2. EB2 ROW stays current - that's good for EB2IC.
3. EB3 ROW doesn't retrogress further - which means EB3ROW has stabilized and now the forward movements will resume with new year or may be even earlier.
Guys please respect moderator's time and effort and post in appropriate threads.
All of us understand the need to get visibility to your questions. But you must understand that moderators are doing a "Pro Bono" work here in maintaining the forum and answering questions. So I second Spec's post and request you to please post in appropriate threads only.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CleanSock
This is true. Buts its not a conspiracy. Eb2C just doesn't have the demand and hence has moved way ahead and EB2I has benefited as a result
But what's stopping CO from moving EB2C further maybe like into 2011 or 12?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Same reason he can't just arbitrarily move EB2-I Cut Off Dates.Quote:
Originally Posted by CleanSock
China had around 5k cases pending (and preadjudicated) up to a Cut Off Date of 01MAY10 at the beginning of the FY. The annual limit is about 3k.
He doesn't currently have enough visas available to approve those cases if he moved the dates up to, or beyond, 01MAY10.
There is no separate mechanism to de-link setting Cut Off Dates for approval and submission purposes.
I think CO should be able to move EB2-C beyond 01MAY10 by around the end of Q2 FY2015.
Got it. Thanks! :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
My PD is 15 Sep 2009. Any chance of getting GC this year or atleast in next year.
thank you for your time and effort.
I still don't get how the EB2I date would move upto jun/09 ? How would EB2I get 15K?
I know that there are only 10K FB spill over, very few from EB1, not many from EB2ROW.
Can some please through some light.
Found this on Fragomen about August and September. http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...tins&news=2704
"The State Department projects that the cut-off date could move to February 2009 in August and to an early summer 2009 date in September of this year."
That's great news. Just this morning I was doing some rough calculations and thought that the dates might move to February 1st 2009 in August and then to July 1st 2009 in September. I looked at the pending I-485 inventory and seems like by this logic, approximately 6,000 visas will be given to EB2I each month (July, August, September) for a total of 18,000 for the rest of the year. We will see how this pans out!Quote:
Originally Posted by ksur23
I have moved (and replied to) a couple of post about RFEs to that thread. That thread has good amount of traffic right now - so don't worry about your post not getting attention there.
PS> I don't mind folks with urgent needs posting in the calculations thread occasionally; perhaps selfishly as I have done so myself in the past. For RFEs though - since we have a pretty active thread available, I will be moving RFE related posts there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Welcome to the forum Raj. EB2ROW is the one expected to provide the bulk of SO this year. There has been a whole lot of discussion around why and how. PERM slowdown, has been C all year, low EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting because of EB3ROW movement etc. This will turn around next year though - but lets not worry about that now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Raj0687
Am not Spec - but here are my $0.02 - This year is very tough but next year looks pretty good for you (and by corollary, for me, an Aug-2009 PD). Hang in there though - you are right in that very thin portion of demand density - so it wouldn't take very many visa numbers for things to move from June-09 to Sept-09. However, considering that even June-09 is a stretch, the odds are low for Sept-09 this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by savinir
I agree. There is no drama with EB2C - we know the exact demand and the exact supply - its just following its track. No one of consciously trying to keep EB2I just behind EB2C - its just how numbers have shaped up. It will continue to be so in coming years as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Q - the bulletin is more aggressive than just matching where we should have been. We finished FY2013 at 15JUN08 - so we are extending PD by 2.5 months off the bat - in July itself. Last year PDs did not move until the Aug bulletin.
I don't think there was any danger of EB2ROW getting off from being Current - was there? Your point on EB3ROW is valid and important. Its movement forward will be key to see if we can finally reach the scenario of horizontal spillovers to EB3I in near future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Not for many many years. They are moving 5 weeks every month - and they are 5 years behind the current date - so at that rate they will take several decades to become current and provide SO to EB2I. They are suffering the side effects of the massive EB2I backlog.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Data point/analysis please?Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
imdeng thanks. Lets talk about all 3 one by one.
1. EB2I date is artificially retrogressed on a technicality of 7% quota (approx equal to 2800). The porting is more than that and so DOS moves dates to 2004. I think the dates should've been current into Jun 2008 all along. That is where the wall of demand is for EB2I. All other prior demand is trickling in from various prior months from EB3I.
2. EB2ROW indeed is not a surprise and that is the point. You don't want a bad surprise.
3. EB3ROW staying at Apr 2011 is good and forward movement will start soon but now I am a bit less bullish on EB3ROW being current next year. We will see!
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Dates being current for mid-2009 contradicts many calculations (based on best available data of course). My theory is that any 2009 dates made current will only get RFEs this September. You respond to the RFEs with fresh medicals which are valid through October 2015. So any 2009 dates that are current will be greened in Summer 2015 and not in September/October 2014. This approach also gives CO with a latest set of inventory to deal with next year. This approach is feasible only for 2009 when the PERM filings are low. Even if the 2009 dates are not made current in September 2014, they will to be made current and greened next year; so why not issue the RFE now- the medicals that follow will be valid for one year. Thoughts??
sun,Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
In FY2011, EB2-WW (ROW, M, P) used 34,550 visas.
In FY2012, EB2-WW used 25,009 visas. EB2-WW was artificially retrogressed in Q4 and approvals that should have taken place in FY2012 were pushed to FY2013.
In FY2013, EB2-WW used 42,641 visas. The increase can be attributed to those delayed from FY2012 due to retrogression.
The average EB2-WW approvals for FY2012/FY2013 was 33,825 and for the period FY2011-FY2013 it was 34,067.
When only 140,000 EB visas are available, the initial allocation for EB2-WW is 34,434.
FY2014 approvals for EB2-WW have been exceptionally low, probably due to PERM processing times increasing and slow I-140 processing. Likely I-485 approvals have come from a time when certification numbers were very low.
The PERM processing times have started to reduce recently and the volume of PERM certifications has increased hugely (Q2 & Q3 FY2014 have seen double the number of certifications compared to each of the 4 preceding quarters).
There does not seem to be a reduction in the underlying number of EB-WW PERM cases, so it likely the EB2-WW I-485 approvals will rise sharply in FY2015. The lower the number of approvals in FY2014, the higher the approval numbers in FY2015 are likely to be.
EB3-ROW date movement might have a small effect eventually, but that will be for new PERM and probably only a major factor if EB3-ROW become Current.
Q has summarised it very eloquently in the next post.
In simple words - the fundamental demand doesn't vary far too much from one year to next. However due to idosyncracies of processing various states of GC (Labor, 140 & 485) the SOFAD waxes and wanes from one year to the next.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
vizcard thanks for that clarity. This is all under the assumption that the RFEs are for medicals and not for something else. Talked to a friend who received a notice for FP appointment for his son. His PD is May 2009. I think they need a fresh set of FP for him.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Part of the pessimism in my reasoning stems from the disbelief in the date movement without any numbers backing it. Where are the numbers for this coming from? Every category seems to be more or less used with spillovers limited to less than 10,000. For the dates to move to mid-2009, and actually greened, there is a need for at least 20,000 numbers for regular cases and some more for CP cases. Does anyone have a reasonable grasp on where the excess spillover is coming from?
Is there a chance in FY 2015, CO moves dates in advance to 1st May 2010 and build additional inventory with portings/new applications instead of waiting till July 2015?Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Thanks for that Spec/Sportsfan. With the date movement there will be fresh wave of porting added to the mix. Do porters file a fresh 485 when they interfile? If they do, the 485 processing time of 4 months essentially kills their chance of getting greened in FY 2014 as dates are expected to retrogress in November anyway. Is this correct?
Welcome to the forum bluelabel. My opinion is that there is enough inventory and additional demand (porting, folks who missed filing during last inventory gathering) left in EB2I to finish FY2015 without trying to get new inventory. New inventory will likely not be necessary until FY2016.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluelabel