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sportsfan33,
I am also finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for myself by the end of the next year! I want all of you Gurus and Pandits to clear the way for us for the next year! The more people can get through this year, the better it will be!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
My PD is just few days before you. In calendar it says Summer starts on 21st June. Fragomen site says dates will move into early summer. I believe our dates will be current. Whether we will get approved is all together a different game. It may depend when we will get RFE. It is sure that at least we will get RFE for medicals.
By the way you know more than I can think of in immigration. I read your posts. Thanks.
Note: Research where to shop for LUCK !!!
-RGVJSR
RGVJSR,Quote:
Originally Posted by RGVJSR
Let us join hands in the luck game :)
Just spoke with my husband, he too have the same opinion about summer. With respect to Medical RFE, it is required IFF our applications are to be ADJUDICATED!!! The Final GC Button press! Otherwise no need to updated I-693.
My worries are currently I am in India on a mission. My sad part is mission failed. Crying at heart shooting smilies :) :)
Fragomen's website doesn't say the prediction is from Fragomen - it says the prediction is from State Department. I hope 2009 gets over ASAP. My PD is March 2010 and I hope by next July, I get greened.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
This was already predicted on this site: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5804#post45804Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Also, I've projections for FY15 but this is not the appropriate time to disclose it. One thing I would say is FY15 will not be as rosy as FY14 interms of visa numbers for EB2-I.
Key here is EB2-ROW which has a pattern of up and down interms of visa consumption on yearly basis. FY13 it had consumed heavily and FY14 will see least consumption(max 20k) and again FY15 will have high consumption.
I was so happy for 2009 folks and looking forward to next year since my PD is Mar 2010 but you just broke my heart...ouuch!!! :(Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
YTeleven,
Indeed, you were spot on about June, 2009! When this year completes, I will be very much looking forward to your new year's predictions along with Spec's analysis. Meanwhile, let's enjoy today's good news!
Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
I think it's great news as reported. 3 things to note:
1) This, ofcourse, goes beyond the calculations from the gurus on this site (although kudos to YT). Based on the article, EB1 is supposed to yield SO which was not expected. So that's interesting.
2) CO appears to have a pretty solid handle on the inventory, demand and on porting to make such a strong prediction.
3) this news has not been reported by other law firms (atleast I haven't seen anything). I don't doubt the article as Fragomen is a reputed name but it's curious that no one else reported something this big.
Also, for those with 2010 PDs, there might be a possibility that dates move further in FY15 than the math would suggest to generate demand.
Vedu - Thanks for sharing this encouraging news. I started off on a google mission and found a similar "client alert" from Fragomen's website predicting PD movement last year. In retrospect, this alert proved to be interesting on two fronts - first is that the prediction came out around the same time last year (June 6th as opposed to June 3rd this year). Secondly, the prediction (Feb 2008) eventually proved to be conservative since the dates actually moved a few months beyond the prediction to June 2008 - hopefully this pattern holds true and benefits those with late summer/fall PDs :)
http://www.fragomen.com/SnapshotFile...i7U685P2fN5Gh6
Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Whereismygc will semi-confirm this news and say we expect similar things.
Kudos to Spec, Q, YT, MATT2012 - Bang on target :)Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Hope we all get greened soon. The wait is agonizing...
China to move 5 weeks per month is interesting - puts EB2 C closer to October 2009 by Sep 2014. Is our view that India and China will end up at similar/same dates at year end.
Interesting find! The news is looking more authentic now.Quote:
Originally Posted by enigma
It indeed would be good news! I think there is now a reasonable chance of some movement in the July VB.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I think the majority of Fall Down from EB1 will actually come from EB4 numbers that Fall Up to EB1.
A note on approval numbers to date from Trackitt.
EB1
EB1 has 422 approvals to date, compared to 424 for all of FY2013 and 543 for all of FY2012. Both FY2013 and FY2012 actual approvals were around 39k.
EB1-India has 361 approvals to date, compared to 338 for all of FY2013 and 413 for all of FY2012. Both FY2013 and FY2012 actual approvals were around 9.5k.
As you can see, the Trackitt rate for EB1 has been a bit variable recently - I have considered the FY2012 rate to be more representative of what is happening this year. The very high approval numbers in the first half of the year may not continue through the second half of the year, although it appears USCIS do not lack EB1 cases judging by the Inventory.
EB2
As for EB2-WW (ROW,M,P), it almost seems a question of how low they might might go. I have been thinking about reducing my assumption for a while now.
EB2-ROW has 253 approvals to date, compared to 732 for all of FY2013 and 453 for all of FY2012. In FY2013, actual approvals were around 36.5k and in FY2012, actual approvals were around 21.8k.
For completeness, EB2-India has 645 approvals to date, compared to 1,338 for all of FY2013 and 1,470 for all of FY2012. In FY2013, actual approvals were around 17.2k and in FY2012, actual approvals were around 19.7k.
EB2-China moving 5 weeks per month is a little more than I had thought - maybe it reflects how many have reverse ported to EB3.
PERM Certifications
To put the increase into perspective, the 2 months worth of PERM Certifications for April/May 2014 represent slightly more than 50% of the total for the 6 months October 2013 to March 2014 (+158%).
March 2014 itself also represented a high Certification month. April/May 2014 Certifications represent 64% of the 6 months September 2013 to February 2014 (+192%).
I agree. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
sportsfan33,
Could you explain more on the 2009 being benign for EB2I? I went through last four I485 inventories and the latest one shows EB2I demand around 14,000 as compared to 10,000 in 2008. I assume 2008 is lower in the latest inventory because many of the applications have been processed as the dates in that year were current twice. But going back 3 inventories, story is the same. 2008 demand data is less than 2009. Then how come it is benign? I guess I am missing something here.
Thanks!
CleanSock
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
im going to take a shot at answering this. Sportsfan - correct me if I'm wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by CleanSock
the issue is not on the demand side but on the supply side. I think the PERM slowdown will rear its ugly head next fiscal year resulting in greater than usual demand in EB2ROW. ofcourse its way too early to say how things will shake out. Its still just Q3 2014.
There is always a balance of force. For less demand in 2009, there will be release of pend up demand. So while the demand side is low, the supply side might also be low thus balancing it. At least that's what I wish for (because my PD is Aug 2009)Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
CleanSock,Quote:
Originally Posted by CleanSock
In terms of Demand judged by PERM Certifications, PD2009 is the lightest.
2007 & 2008 had around 23k certifications for India.
2009 had under 17k certifications.
2010 had over 22k certifications and that has risen to over 35k certifications for 2012.
You can look at the figures in FACTS & DATA here and broken down by month here.
Even allowing for distortions due to new PERM for porting, it is clear the overall demand has increased substantially since around April/May 2010.
Such was the pace of PD2008 approvals during the period they were first current, I don't think the Inventory ever properly captured the true numbers.
Hi Gurus,
How long does it take to get EAD as first time filer?Pls move this to appropriate thread.
Thanks
I'll give u a crappy range... i got mine in 3 weeks back in 2012. When I renewed in 2013, it took longer (6 weeks or so IIRC). A friend of mine's took almost 3 months for his renewal. So I don't know if the driver of time is first time vs renewal or workload at any given point in time or something else.Quote:
Originally Posted by helooo
Thank You Spec, Vizcard and Sportsfan33. This explains it all :)
My PD is in 2011 and I am nowhere close to getting a GC. I just hope dates move quickly to May 2010 so that they are pushed forward to generate demand and I at least get EAD and AP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Assuming dates move to early summer of 2009(conservative estimate from Fragomen holds good), is there a consensus among the group about how next inventory buildup might look like and what will be the timing of such buildup (USCIS FY 2015 Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4)
Even if we move to middle of 2009, considering that SO is expected to be low next year, CO might have enough inventory left to finish off FY2015. So in that case next inventory buildup can be as late as early summer 2016. However, if things align well and there isn't enough inventory left to finish FY2015, then we can see inventory buildup about this time next year. All depends on how next few months go and how much of actual SO is realized.
Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
CO wouldn't have a view already on spillover for FY 2015...thats why date movements only happen in fiscal Q4.
If we move to summer 09, and we have around 10k+ EB2 till May 2010, that may prompt him to build inventory from as early as Q1 fiscal 2015...
what he does know is that average EB2 india granted each year is around 18k... he wouldnt want to take the risk of wasting numbers, so may at least what to get to 20k inventory prior to next spillovre season
First, I believe CO looks at demand and not inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Second, even if we do move to June 2009, not everyone in that period will get greened (visas may run out, RFE responses won't get processed in time, etc, etc.). Last year when the dates moved to June 2008, I don't believe everyone in that period was approved and those left over are a decent number.
Third, depending on how EB3I ends up this year, you can expect a lot of porting.
Adding to what Viz pointed out, there will be many new I485 cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
So if we assume that CO won't move the dates forward so early to generate the new demand, would it be fair to assume that he won't move the dates backwards either starting October/November in the hope of generating a limited new demand from the porters?Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Once there are enough porters/documentarily-qualified folks to exceed the normal quarterly quota for the country, CO has to retrogress until Q4. So I doubt that he will be able to keep the Summer-2009 date for much longer after Oct. Perhaps for a month or two like this FY to mop up some laggards - but by Dec-Jan, dates are going back to 2004 type date to stop porting demand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
This Fragomen link says dates will move in JULY:
http://www.fragomen.com//SnapshotFil...2fvJvROnpvg%3d
That's a good news. Last year the dates started moving in August. So, this year we will have one extra month to consume the spill over.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait
Excellent first post ! Welcome to the forum.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait
A July move would mean that CO will move dates in baby steps perhaps to June 2008 then Dec 2008 (Aug) and then June 2009 (Sep). That would give 2008 folks who have received RFEs around 60 days to respond before they become current and ofcourse 90 days till the end of the year.
Vizcard,
Do you think there is any chance of dates moving father than June 2009? Last year, Fragomen predicted February 2008 for EB2I and January 2009 for EB3 ROW. Ultimately, the dates ended up in June 2008 for EB2I and July 2010 for EB3 ROW.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Fragomen is reporting what CO says. Only CO knows the data. I'm surprised that it's even reaching the summer. But if we get June 2009, then it's net 1 yr movement which is excellent.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Do I think it'll go past June 2009? No. But I didn't think it'd reach June 2009 so what do I know :)
I agree.
I feel the same. I think they should peg the dates at high watermark from July itself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
End of 2008 was looking doubtful two weeks ago, now we're talking June 2009 and beyond, things change pretty quickly in the immigration process. I'm a little baffled by a move into July (hope it happens for your sake), but if they are so confident about the numbers why not make a move to Dec 2008 in July and June 2009 in August. I guess we'll find out soon enough, RFE for May 2009 points to a fairytale ending - but we know this process is anything but that!Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
I agree. RFEs are a natural constraint this year - they can't move dates and approve loads of people in the last month - so they have to signal their hand well in time.
There was some discussion before on whether an RFE actually blocks a visa number for the RFE recipient. Would be pretty nice if true.
Even if we go to May 2009 this year, we are only holding serve and barely maintaining a PD+5Year benchmark. Next year is expected to be brutal - we might just about clear 2009 which is the lowest density portion. Demand densities kick up in 2010+ PDs - so we are looking at some awful years after this current one. So enjoy this ride while it lasts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I would not give up hope on next year so early. Hoping that 'divine arrangement' (which has helped EB2I to maintain PD+5-6 years to GC equation :) ) continues. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
On a serious note, I would like to see where it ends this FY before predicting anything for next year.
Here's a part of what it says on Trackitt, but I really am not sure what to make of it. An exact date prediction of 9/1/2008 this month is a bit bold, but we'll see!Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Visa Chief Charles Oppenheim recently advised Mr. ____ that the July India EB-2 cut-off date will be September 1, 2008, which means significant movement is expected. Mr. Oppenheim plans to then advance the date to 2009 for August, and another move in September. The extent of the movements will depend on his estimates of "otherwise unused" EB-1 and EB-2 numbers when the cut-off dates for those months are determined.
Mr. Oppenheim predicts that by the end of September the movements in the next few months with the India EB-2 cut-off date will allow over 15,000 applicants to adjust.
Mr. Oppenheim further predicts that the September India EB-2 cut-off date will likely to hold for October, but can be expected to retrogress as early as November. That retrogression will become necessary as soon as the processing of the new (July-Sept.) filings results in a significant increase in adjustment requests for applicants with very early priority dates.
According to notes in the Visa Bulletin, priority dates for the Family F2A category have retrogressed as a result of a dramatic increase in demand earlier this fiscal year. Further retrogression cannot be ruled out should demand by applicants with very early priority dates continue to increase.
Retrogression in the employment-based categories is a result of unexpected and dramatic increase in demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service Offices during the past several months. "Notices were included in several Visa Bulletins during the past year alerting readers to the possibility of such retrogressions. While corrective action in some categories has become necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available earlier, it is hoped that readers are not caught off guard by these retrogressions."
Note that persons in the US whose priority dates will become current in June cannot file an application for adjustment of status until June 1, except for Diversity Visa applicants, who can file a month in advance of their priority date becoming current. We expect that once an application is filed, in order to use all the available visa numbers, USCIS will aggressively
move to schedule applicants for biometrics and adjudicate these cases quickly. Applicants should ensure that their attorneys push USCIS to move on their cases before any retrogression can occur.
We will keep you posted as we receive more information on future predictions of visa availability. More information can be found at the Visa Bulletin website.
If everything goes according to plan this year, then next year around this time there will be approximately 10,000 pending EB2I I-485 inventory. In June 2011, there was close to 22,000 EB2I pending inventory. That year, the dates started moving in July and CO kept moving dates until April 2012 in order to generate the future demand. Finally when the dates stopped moving, they were at May 1, 2010. We may be in a similar situation in June of next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx