EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by desitiger

Thanks for breaking my heart. I am just kidding :)

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I think this set of RFE's might be for the next bulletin.

If in the next bulletin CO moves it to march 2008 and predicts few more months for sept bulletin , then they could always send RFE's on July 14th lets say march-june ( just an example ).

But here is what makes me bit pessimistic

Both murthy and fragoman mentioned that CO felt that Feb 2008 is best case scenario. ( not worst case scenario).

On a lighter note to those who watched the game tonight, COD is like the scoreboard you never know what happens until the very end. so until the september bulletin is released, everyone can have some hopes.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

desitiger,

I would agree that there will always have to be a doubt about the data set, but it is the best we have at present.

That said, out of the 192 cases I have with a PD of Jan 2007 or later, only 5 have a PD later than March 2008. That may be just noise, or a normal RFE issuance level.

It suggests that, at present, USCIS do not feel the need to prepare for large numbers of cases beyond a PD of March 2008 and is consistent with what CO has said to date (unfortunately).

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Makes sense. On the flip side, given that USCIS have bit the bullet and internally decided to send out RFE's limited to March 2008, this probably means they know with a good degree of confidence thats where the dates are going to end up. If not, they might conceivably need to send out RFEs to a subset of the same bunch of applicants again in the future. That would be quite wasteful.

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

What ever may be the reason, if there is always a chance that few % demand cases will miss bus due to delay or inability to respond in time. This would cause upward shift beyond predicted dates ie.. 2nd half of 2008.

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All of these cases will respond in time and they all will be approved. Moreover 2008 is already far fetched. IMO dates won't move to 2008. I myself know lot of people from 2007 who were not approved last time due to USCIS mishandling of priority dates. There were a whole bunch of 2007 filers whose files were totally missed by USCIS. Instead they went on approving 2008 cases. So there is lot of backlog of 2007 cases.

I too agree. By next month they would review RFE replies and then decide if they need to send additonal RFEs in next batch and give some idea where the dates would land this FY

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Originally Posted by indiani

I think this set of RFE's might be for the next bulletin.

If in the next bulletin CO moves it to march 2008 and predicts few more months for sept bulletin , then they could always send RFE's on July 14th lets say march-june ( just an example ).

But here is what makes me bit pessimistic

Both murthy and fragoman mentioned that CO felt that Feb 2008 is best case scenario. ( not worst case scenario).

On a lighter note to those who watched the game tonight, COD is like the scoreboard you never know what happens until the very end. so until the september bulletin is released, everyone can have some hopes.

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Originally Posted by gcq

All of these cases will respond in time and they all will be approved. Moreover 2008 is already far fetched. IMO dates won't move to 2008. I myself know lot of people from 2007 who were not approved last time due to USCIS mishandling of priority dates. There were a whole bunch of 2007 filers whose files were totally missed by USCIS. Instead they went on approving 2008 cases. So there is lot of backlog of 2007 cases.

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gcq,

I agree that a lot of 2007 PD applicants were left behind last year. Properly controlled, cases beyond 2007 might not have been approved last year.

Those missed 2007 cases (something more than 5k) have been included in the DD and are therefore included in the calculations and predictions.

Although a final COD in 2007 is not impossible, it seems relatively less likely at this point. However, a combination of higher approvals in EB1, EB2-WW and large porting numbers would make it possible.

After all, the difference between a Cut Off Date of 22DEC07 and 01FEB08 is only 1.5k cases.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

gcq,

I agree that a lot of 2007 PD applicants were left behind last year. Properly controlled, cases beyond 2007 might not have been approved last year.

Those missed 2007 cases (something more than 5k) have been included in the DD and are therefore included in the calculations and predictions.

Although a final COD in 2007 is not impossible, it seems relatively less likely at this point. However, a combination of higher approvals in EB1, EB2-WW and large porting numbers would make it possible.

After all, the difference between a Cut Off Date of 22DEC07 and 01FEB08 is only 1.5k cases.

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Assuming dates were to finish this FY @ Feb '08, then in FY 14

1. Would we 've a repeat of FY '13 wherein the dates would be stuck @ Feb '08 before retrogressing

or

2. Would the dates be stuck @ Feb '08 for a while before starting to move again in summer of '14.

Pls weigh in with your opinions.

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Originally Posted by anx80_

Makes sense. On the flip side, given that USCIS have bit the bullet and internally decided to send out RFE's limited to March 2008, this probably means they know with a good degree of confidence thats where the dates are going to end up. If not, they might conceivably need to send out RFEs to a subset of the same bunch of applicants again in the future. That would be quite wasteful.

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That did happen with some folks with 2007 PDs..they are responding to their second RFEs now. Completely wasteful.

I apologize in advance if this has already been discussed - how much weight do CO's 'predictions' carry? I know the best case scenario of 'Feb 2008' is being touted all over the place, but how many times historically have these predictions hit the bulls' eye? Since I have a March 08 PD, and am one of the mass RFE receipients...I am totally torn between the prediction of Feb 08, and the logic of RFEs indicating a movement till at least the end of March.

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Originally Posted by ontheedge

I apologize in advance if this has already been discussed - how much weight do CO's 'predictions' carry? I know the best case scenario of 'Feb 2008' is being touted all over the place, but how many times historically have these predictions hit the bulls' eye? Since I have a March 08 PD, and am one of the mass RFE receipients...I am totally torn between the prediction of Feb 08, and the logic of RFEs indicating a movement till at least the end of March.

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CO also said that is an estimate and things can change between now and sept bulletin.

remember he just gave the prediction when prodded, he didn't give date in bulletin

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Originally Posted by indiani

CO also said that is an estimate and things can change between now and sept bulletin.

remember he just gave the prediction when prodded, he didn't give date in bulletin

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I have a feeling that once RFEs are received USCIS will start clearing the cases up to Feb 2008. He has included some March cases so that in case some RFEs are not cleared no visas are wasted. I think it is a smart way to do things this time around. Nobody who is not in US for whatever reason does not get a visa at the same time all law firms are happy with more revenue(at least my law firms has clearly indicated that they would charge)

The truth is - very little. He has been conservative most of the times and the numbers have almost always landed farther than his predictions.

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Originally Posted by ontheedge

I apologize in advance if this has already been discussed - how much weight do CO's 'predictions' carry? I know the best case scenario of 'Feb 2008' is being touted all over the place, but how many times historically have these predictions hit the bulls' eye? Since I have a March 08 PD, and am one of the mass RFE receipients...I am totally torn between the prediction of Feb 08, and the logic of RFEs indicating a movement till at least the end of March.

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Originally Posted by IsItWorthTheTrouble

Assuming dates were to finish this FY @ Feb '08, then in FY 14

1. Would we 've a repeat of FY '13 wherein the dates would be stuck @ Feb '08 before retrogressing

or

2. Would the dates be stuck @ Feb '08 for a while before starting to move again in summer of '14.

Pls weigh in with your opinions.

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IsItWorthTheTrouble,

My personal opinion.

In FY2014, the Cut Off Date will, as normal, be set on a purely supply vs demand basis.

At least initially, there will only be 252 visas per month available to EB2-I (2,803 * 9%).

The COD will be set based on that. Fairly early on, if not in October itself, demand from cases with a PD earlier than February 2008 will cause the dates to retrogress (perhaps quite substantially). The demand will be generated both by cases that were "left behind" and by newer porting cases becoming ready to adjudicate.

Unlike this year, CO may have the opportunity to apply quarterly spillover to the benefit of EB2-I, but I do not expect him to do so until at least Q3.

So I see retrogression in October or November 2013, followed by a static COD or one that moves very slowly until at least April 2014. If some spillover is released at that point, the COD could accelerate, but movement beyond wherever EB2-I ends this year will probably only happen in Q4 FY2014.

If there are no extra FB visas in FY2014, overall movement in EB2-I from the latest date reached in FY2013 is likely to only be around 6-7 months or so, assuming porting continues at around 4k.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

If there are no extra FB visas in FY2014, overall movement in EB2-I is likely to only be around 6-7 months or so, assuming porting continues at around 4k.

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Spec,
Do you mean 6-7mos movement assuming a COD of Feb '08?

Spec,

Once we send the RFE's does the IO actually look at them " convinced that its good enough " and pre-adjudicate in next few weeks. or

just keep all the responses in respective files and open them when dates are current and if somehow the response is not good enough issue denial vs NOID vs another RFE.

The second scenario is scary as human error is possible when sending RFE and 2007 folks like me are scared of missing the boat again if the responses are looked at ONLY when dates are current

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Originally Posted by IsItWorthTheTrouble

Spec,
Do you mean 6-7mos movement assuming a COD of Feb '08?

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Sorry for answering for spec ( acting like his para-legal..lol ) but I think it has to be apprx. 6 months from this fiscal yr's COD b'cos they might retrogress back to 2005/2006 and move in 3rd or 4th Q

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Originally Posted by indiani

Sorry for answering for spec ( acting like his para-legal..lol ) but I think it has to be apprx. 6 months from this fiscal yr's COD b'cos they might retrogress back to 2005/2006 and move in 3rd or 4th Q

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We need 12-13K to move COD by 6 months in FY-2014. (4K porters+ 1.5K*6 = 13K and some more I-485 that need pre-adjudication after FY13).
Without FB visas, FY2014 looks quite grim as of today.

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Originally Posted by IsItWorthTheTrouble

Spec,
Do you mean 6-7mos movement assuming a COD of Feb '08?

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Changed the initial post to make it clearer.

Folks (especially Kanmani)
I have a couple of technical questions.
1. Do I have to be working for a US company when my GC is approved?
2. Do I physically need to be in the US when my GC is approved?

I have the opportunity to do a secondment overseas through my company but I obviously don't want to screw around when it comes to GC. my company has separate legal entities in various countries i.e. they are independent companies under and umbrella name. My lawyers (Fragomen) told me that I have to be physically in the US and owrking for a US company when the GC is approved.

1. Do I have to be working for a US company when my GC is approved?

Yes ( US employer , could be MNC)

2. Do I physically need to be in the US when my GC is approved?

Yes for AOS ( unless consular processing ).

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Folks (especially Kanmani)
I have a couple of technical questions.
1. Do I have to be working for a US company when my GC is approved?
2. Do I physically need to be in the US when my GC is approved?

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1. You need not be working for a US company/Sponsor/MNC at the time of your GC approved, but as a primary beneficiary of the employment based immigrant visa, a valid job offer with a genuine arrangement to start working for the employer after the GC is must.

2. You must be physically present in US to get your AOS approved. ( Short vacation is allowed)

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

1. You need not be working for a US company/Sponsor/MNC at the time of your GC approved, but as a primary beneficiary of the employment based immigrant visa, a valid job offer with a genuine arrangement to start working for the employer after the GC is must.

2. You must be physically present in US to get your AOS approved. ( Short vacation is allowed)

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Thanks Indiani and Kanmani. That's what I figured. It would be very good professionally to be able to do something like this but unfortunately another one of those GC constraints. I believe that even after the GC, there are residency issues that make a secondment difficult but those can be worked around.

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Originally Posted by indiani

I think this set of RFE's might be for the next bulletin.

If in the next bulletin CO moves it to march 2008 and predicts few more months for sept bulletin , then they could always send RFE's on July 14th lets say march-june ( just an example ).

But here is what makes me bit pessimistic

Both murthy and fragoman mentioned that CO felt that Feb 2008 is best case scenario. ( not worst case scenario).

On a lighter note to those who watched the game tonight, COD is like the scoreboard you never know what happens until the very end. so until the september bulletin is released, everyone can have some hopes.

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Based on my observation on different forums and watching Trackitt RFE related threads for the past week or so - my conclusion is

1) Looks like there has been error at the time of data entry when the 485 cases were originally received by USCIS as many derivative applications are either marked primary or marked none - triggering these RFEs for derivative cases
2) Only those 485s (irrespective of primary or derivative, it should be primary only, but see my point 1 above) whose underlying I-140s are approved before Jan 1 2011 which is before the USCIS memo to RFE the recessed 485 applications due to lack of IVs thereby asking for lawful employment status from the date 485 was filed and bonafide EVL from I-140 petitioner or AC-21 employer with same or similar job duties
3) There is an assumption made by USCIS that those porting cases with recent I-140 approvals (after the retrogression happened in 2012) doesn't fall under this as their I-140s are fairly new and doesn't need to be checked for EVL or lawful status again.

Is it right?

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Thanks Indiani and Kanmani. That's what I figured. It would be very good professionally to be able to do something like this but unfortunately another one of those GC constraints. I believe that even after the GC, there are residency issues that make a secondment difficult but those can be worked around.

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Kanmani is more accurate,

I made the assumption that your current employer and GC sponsoring emploer is the ssame but doesn't have to be the case

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Originally Posted by indiani

Kanmani is more accurate,

I made the assumption that your current employer and GC sponsoring emploer is the ssame but doesn't have to be the case

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As of now they are the same and probably will be later as well. I'll hit my 10 yr anniversary with my company next summer and hopefully be rewarded with a GC :)

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

The truth is - very little. He has been conservative most of the times and the numbers have almost always landed farther than his predictions.

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That's encouraging!