EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

gcq - I agree - it is not right. In fact this can be challenged in courts if the applicant wants to go to the courts and fight with USCIS. However, USCIS DOS are all government agencies and government retains the right to revoke all kinds of things. I-140 is a small thing - even GC as well as citizenship can be revoked. Unfortunate ... but true.

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Q,

I would disagree with you partially.

There are instances where immigrants have won cases when the govt agencies didn't follow the law and the govt can argue and make their case but certainly if they act in a rather meaningless and nonsensical way and the case can be made we ( immigrants) can win.

Unfortunately there are few instances where practically it has happened.
GC can be revoked only when there is fraud. while its easy to delay a case and investigate before approval, after its approved there needs to be clear evidence of fraud or other reason to revoke something. especially after GC or citizenship are approved.

while your knowledge perhaps might be lot more than I do, I like to see nay actual cases of GC/ citizenship revoked without a good reason

Indiani yes indeed the case can be won. I didn't mean to say it is a foregone conclusion.

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Originally Posted by indiani

Q,

I would disagree with you partially.

There are instances where immigrants have won cases when the govt agencies didn't follow the law and the govt can argue and make their case but certainly if they act in a rather meaningless and nonsensical way and the case can be made we ( immigrants) can win.

Unfortunately there are few instances where practically it has happened.
GC can be revoked only when there is fraud. while its easy to delay a case and investigate before approval, after its approved there needs to be clear evidence of fraud or other reason to revoke something. especially after GC or citizenship are approved.

while your knowledge perhaps might be lot more than I do, I like to see nay actual cases of GC/ citizenship revoked without a good reason

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

gcq - I agree - it is not right. In fact this can be challenged in courts if the applicant wants to go to the courts and fight with USCIS. However, USCIS DOS are all government agencies and government retains the right to revoke all kinds of things. I-140 is a small thing - even GC as well as citizenship can be revoked. Unfortunate ... but true.

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As per PERM rules employer is required to preserve all the PERM documents for 5 years which means they can come back and review them anytime I think.That could be the case here.

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Originally Posted by rka_72

Hello Gurus
I have a concern arising out of my friend's case just yesterday.
His I-140 that was approved earlier this year was revoked as some officer 'reviewing or working' his labor application decided to have the supervisory recruitment (that means at every stage that officer has to be informed including video/recording of the interviews of the candidates that respond to the advt that the company does for labor again.

6 similar cases happened in my company (4 last week and 2 yesterday)

I have labor / I -140 approved in 2011 (PD 26NOV2008) and I filed my I-1485 in Jan 2012 and had received EAD in FEB 2012. I read somewhere that similar cases (to mine) have also had their I-140 revoked.

Another complexity is that my H1 is expiring end of this month and waiting for its extension based on approved I-140. Can the above situation affect my H1 approval process? I am very anxious to get some suggestions that can help me mitigate my risk.

FYI...My friend is going to file an appeal in some court as I know.

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Nothing to worry if your company hasn't done anything wrong.These things only happen when company has some issues with USCIS/DOL.All the best.

Everybody - pl bear with the site as the site is having technical issues. Hopefully will be resolved in 8 hours or less. Thanks for your patience. -

Alright -- this is resolved now. Thanks again!

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_6062.html

Btw, in case this hasn't been posted yet, Oct 2013 VB is out: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_6062.html . EB2-I dates remain unchanged (15JUN08).

EB2 China has moved ahead by a month. Wondering if the CO is using the monthly quota to move the dates forward.

As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression. As the Sep and Oct data comes in the dates might retrogress. As of now i think the chances of retrogression in Nov are 50-50. It all depends on how well USCIS clears EB2I backlog through the dates that are current.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression. As the Sep and Oct data comes in the dates might retrogress. As of now i think the chances of retrogression in Nov are 50-50. It all depends on how well USCIS clears EB2I backlog through the dates that are current.

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This is definitely good news for people like me waiting after being Current. This buys in more time to get approvals. Also this makes it no numbers get wasted if they can allocate the numbers ahead of time.

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Originally Posted by pdmay2008

Also this makes it no numbers get wasted...

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That's a good point pdmay. I tend to believe (although I can't prove it) that DOS/USCIS continue to approve cases using prior year number into Oct. Thus it gives me some comfort to see dates not moving back - which would mean - the visas are not going waste now. But as I said - I don't really have proof for my theory except that in prior years i have noticed very large october approvals.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

As expected Oct 2013 bulletin doesn't show retrogression..

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Great news !!

Gurus, assuming that all FY 2013 visa numbers for EB2I are used up by September, how many visa numbers will be available for EB2I in October?

I am trying to assess my chances of being approved in October, in case I do not get approved in September.

PD: March 11, 2008. TSC.

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Originally Posted by pseudonym

Gurus, assuming that all FY 2013 visa numbers for EB2I are used up by September, how many visa numbers will be available for EB2I in October?

I am trying to assess my chances of being approved in October, in case I do not get approved in September.

PD: March 11, 2008. TSC.

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EB2I will get approx. 1/12th of 28.2% of 7% of 140K. That's approx 230 visas.

Do any of the knowledgeable folks here believe there could be mechanisms in place that allow the assignment of 2013 visa numbers to pending cases while they physically get approved in Oct 2013?
i.e. is there any way the DOS Visa Bureau may be able to assign visa numbers to outstanding cases in Sep 2013 while they may not get approved/issued until October?

Just wondering if that's one of the possible reasons behind maintaining the same cutoff date for EB2I going into FY 2014...

Many thanks

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...ctober2013.pdf

EB2 I - No Change.

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.

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Originally Posted by ThisSummer

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.

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Congratulations ThisSummer.

Gurus,

What do you think of the latest visa bulletin ? For Eb2-I and EB3-I no movement forward or backward. How do you explain that.
The only explanation I can come up is CO is on vacation, so asked his staff to copy paste from earlier bulletin :-)

Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?

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Originally Posted by ThisSummer

Finally got approved, after 6.5 years long wait.

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Congrats this summer....

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?

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Spec may be away on vacation... I guess that is the reason...

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

Any reason why Trackitt data on Q forum is not being updated since Sep5th 2013?

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Here is what I pulled from trackitt....

Approvals in Sept as of today:
June 08 - 18
May 08 - 36
Apr 08 - 51
Mar 08 - 29
Feb 08 - 18
Jan 08 - 17
Dec 07 - 03
Nov 07 - 08
Oct 07 - 02
Sep 07 - 04
Aug 07 - 04
Pre Aug 07 - 38

Total Approvals - 228

Hello All Gurus

By far this has been the most nerve wrecking waiting period in my life...my PD - 05/14/08 - Eb2 I - TSC with RD - 03/14/12.
I am guessing they are processing based on RD's order and thats why im getting delayed. I have no idea how long this wait is going to be. I hope it ends soon and wish the same for everyone who is on the same boat.

With VB showing dates being 15 Jun 08 for Oct as well - do i stand a good chance of getting my GC before end of October? Also what is the criteria in processing 485 applciations? i saw lot of approvals in TSC in May and June08.

please share some thoughts
thanks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Here is what I pulled from trackitt....

Approvals in Sept as of today:
June 08 - 18
May 08 - 36
Apr 08 - 51
Mar 08 - 29
Feb 08 - 18
Jan 08 - 17
Dec 07 - 03
Nov 07 - 08
Oct 07 - 02
Sep 07 - 04
Aug 07 - 04
Pre Aug 07 - 38

Total Approvals - 228

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013

Hello All Gurus

By far this has been the most nerve wrecking waiting period in my life...my PD - 05/14/08 - Eb2 I - TSC with RD - 03/14/12.
I am guessing they are processing based on RD's order and thats why im getting delayed. I have no idea how long this wait is going to be. I hope it ends soon and wish the same for everyone who is on the same boat.

With VB showing dates being 15 Jun 08 for Oct as well - do i stand a good chance of getting my GC before end of October? Also what is the criteria in processing 485 applciations? i saw lot of approvals in TSC in May and June08.

please share some thoughts
thanks

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I am not a guru but still will reply...

There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-with-details

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

Thanks for forwarding the thread.

I qualify under the 1) No RFE category.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

I am not a guru but still will reply...

There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-with-details

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

I am not a guru but still will reply..

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ..

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

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Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

Lol.. please say tomorrow :(..

Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day:(...mine waiting...

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Originally Posted by RogerFederer

Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

Lol.. please say tomorrow :(..

Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day:(...mine waiting...

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@RogerFederer - Looks like we share the receipt date and the fate. am still waiting too...

@Gurus - Just wanted to check if anyone has done any analysis or estimates on how many GCs have been used up so far (in Aug/Sep) for EB2I? And how much are remaining? Looking at the pace of approvals, looks like there is a higher chance of GCs running out then getting wasted - is that correct?

Thanks for your thoughts in advance!!

-- (Patiently waiting) Techsavvy1973

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

I am not a guru but still will reply...

There have been discussions in the past on the topic of PD vs RD. It should be in the current thread or in thread of Aug approvals
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...e-with-details

Several opinions between the gurus like Q, Spec, Kanmani, Indiani, ...

Many supportive documentations as well... Please read through the posts to conclude for yourself...

General consensus according to me is:
1. People who haven't received RFE
2. PD
3. RD

However, many would say it is 2) RD and 3) PD.

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I don't see any specific pattern followed, there are plenty of approvals which will disprove all the theory. I guess the "luck" should be first one. You can improve your luck with some triggers like SR etc. That is what i am seeing now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RogerFederer

Jagan...I'm waiting on when you can feel that I will be greened.. remember you promised you will let me know as you predicted Indiani...:-)

Lol.. please say tomorrow :(..

Mine no rfe... apr.28 pd, ppl after my pd lot of em got grn..rd 19 jan 2012.. same as pedro.. he got 2nd day:(...mine waiting...

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Hey Rogerfederer,

If I knew when you would get GC then I would surely tell you. :)

It was just one coincidence about Indiani... I do not know when anyone is getting greened.

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Originally Posted by Techsavvy1973

@RogerFederer - Looks like we share the receipt date and the fate. am still waiting too...

@Gurus - Just wanted to check if anyone has done any analysis or estimates on how many GCs have been used up so far (in Aug/Sep) for EB2I? And how much are remaining? Looking at the pace of approvals, looks like there is a higher chance of GCs running out then getting wasted - is that correct?

Thanks for your thoughts in advance!!

-- (Patiently waiting) Techsavvy1973

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Yes the visas would most likely not get wasted. How soon they run out is difficult to say but most likely they wouldn't run out before the last week of Sept.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Yes the visas would most likely not get wasted. How soon they run out is difficult to say but most likely they wouldn't run out before the last week of Sept.

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Hmm so random it is .. waiting continues..hopefully tomorrow will be my day :)

My PD is FEB 2008; got an RFE responded back in July 24; no sign of movement in my file... God only knows when I would get it ...

My case is with Texas Service Center ... dependents also received an RFE responded back in Aug 24th ... Any prediction on movement greatly appreciated ....


thanks

Bharmanandam

Welcome to forum. It is difficult to make a prediction on individual cases.

Clearly your case has some unresolved issues. It might be worthwhile to take an infopass and/or approach your senator/congressman for help. I wish you the best.

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Originally Posted by Bharmanandam

My PD is FEB 2008; got an RFE responded back in July 24; no sign of movement in my file... God only knows when I would get it ...

My case is with Texas Service Center ... dependents also received an RFE responded back in Aug 24th ... Any prediction on movement greatly appreciated ....


thanks

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I have a feeling that he is staying away due to a comment that was made on this forum. I am not going into details. I may be wrong.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Spec may be away on vacation... I guess that is the reason...

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Today is the 7th processing day in Sept for those waiting for GC. Since this also the last month for this visa year I feel that once we reach 12th day of processing for Sept then we will definitely see approvals slowing down. I am getting nervous by the hr. God know whats in store for me.

Based on Trackitt, first time I-485 and EAD filers in August 2013 are now recieving their EAD cards. Some have recieved EAD cards with one year validity while others have two years of validity. Now there's rampant speculation that applicants who were granted a one-year EAD are more likely to recieve their GC before possible upcoming retrogression in the next month or two while those with a two-year EAD will have to wait until summer next year to get their GCs. Do any of you think that there's any possibility of that being the case.

A little further digging shows that someone with a PD of Dec 13, 2007 got a one year EAD while another with a Dec 19, 2007 PD got a two-year EAD. If the logic applies, then dates should retrogress back to somewhere between Dec 13 and Dec 19, 2007. Of course this whole argument is very simplistic because we simply don't have enough data points and I have no way of knowing if people with PDs before that date have a one or two year EAD.

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...g-2013/page/59

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Originally Posted by druvraj

Today is the 7th processing day in Sept for those waiting for GC. Since this also the last month for this visa year I feel that once we reach 12th day of processing for Sept then we will definitely see approvals slowing down.

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Druvraj, why do you feel there will be a slowdown after the 12th day of processing? Based on past month's experience?

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Originally Posted by Still_Waiting

Some have recieved EAD cards with one year validity while others have two years of validity. Now there's rampant speculation that applicants who were granted a one-year EAD are more likely to recieve their GC before possible upcoming retrogression in the next month or two while those with a two-year EAD will have to wait until summer next year to get their GCs. Do any of you think that there's any possibility of that being the case.

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This happened last year too, and I was one of the folks that received a one year EAD, yet no approval. The same theories were floated around at that time. And we know how far the dates went back.

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Originally Posted by Bharmanandam

Bharmanandam

Welcome to forum. It is difficult to make a prediction on individual cases.

Clearly your case has some unresolved issues. It might be worthwhile to take an infopass and/or approach your senator/congressman for help. I wish you the best.

.

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My case is not yet passed the 60 day processing time. In couple of weeks from now it will pass, and I will give a call to Texas Service Center. Thank you very much for very valuable suggestions and prediction.