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Yup. See below in red, there have been several very well done analysis of potential impact of HR-3012 on PD movement - a perusal of posts in past couple of months will give you the details, calculations and rationale.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBear123
Quick question for those who have already crossed this bridge...
After receiving the receipt notice, how long it takes to reflect that in USCIS check status. I received the receipts 2 days ago and when I tried to check the status in USCIS web site, it says "Your case can not be found at this time in My Case Status".
Just pray GOD and keep your documents ready. I am also doing the same in anticipation of my PD becoming current.Quote:
Originally Posted by bhala5
Cool. Thanks for taking the time to reply. I am kinda new to the ballgame. Ill check out the past posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Alright, my mistake was assuming that I assumed categories were done with. Clearly not what the bill intends to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
It shouldn't matter though, if H.R 3012 did become law, all available EB3 visa numbers should go towards EB3 I/C petitions. If CO was trying to buffer for the passage of H.R 3012, he should advance EB3 I/C as well as EB2.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
There is no need to advance PD for EB3IC since CO is sitting on an EB3IC inventory of 50K+ thanks to 07/07. Meanwhile, inventory of EB2IC is almost zero and will remain at that level until the intake in last few months become documentarily qualified. For getting ready for HR-3012, CO needs large inventory of pre-adjudicated, documentarily qualified applications that he can quickly assign visa numbers when HR-3012 passes. That's why it makes sense to advance EB2IC PD and not EB3IC PD.
Also - even after HR-3012 passes, all visa numbers will not go to EB3IC - the transition plan provides 85% of the visa numbers to IC in the first year. However, the actual distribution is likely to be lower than 85% since by the time the bill passes and becomes law, we would surely have assigned more than 15% of the available visas for the category to ROW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBear123
Keep your documents ready, hope it works out for you. Also - pay it forward by supporting HR-3012 by calling your Senators.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhala5
Much obliged for the info.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Assuming that Demand Destruction is real - lets say EB2IC demand of 1600/month in 2007 (from Apr-15), 1800/month in 2008 and 1200/month in 2009. This gives us a total 2012 FY pipeline of 1600*8.5 + 1800*12 = 13600 + 21600 ~ 40K.
Now, assuming that HR-3012 becomes law on Jan-31st, then by that time we would have distributed four months worth of EB2ROW visas. If we consider ROW demand to be 2K/month - that is 8K to ROW. Since this is already more than 15% of 40K, all remaining EB2 visas will go to IC: 32K. Further, lets add a spillover of 8K from EB1. So total EB2IC visa needed: 32K + 8K = 40K.
As you can see, given our sets of assumptions, the entire inventory up to Jan-01-2009 will get cleared if HR-3012 is passed by the end of Jan-2012. Now, what does it mean for the next VB? The only movement left is for a possible extra buffer. Assuming a buffer of 6K, it amounts to 5 months demand in 2009 (6/1.2).
So my (worthless) prediction for next VB: 01-Jan-09 + 5 Months = 01-JUN-09.
Of course, the above will get adjusted up or down depending upon how actual numbers that USCIS/DoS observe differ from the assumptions above. For the record, the case above is quite optimistic and probably the best case scenario.
If HR-3012 actually passes by end of Jan-2012, then based on assumptions above, all EB2IC demand up to 01-Jan-09 (40K) will get consumed in FY2012. DoS will need additional EB2IC inventory for the large demand for visa numbers in FY2013. At 90% of EB2 and 8K spillover from EB1, EB2IC will need 0.9*40 + 8 = 44K applications. This will easily cover the entire 2009 (1.2K*12 = 14.4K) and 2010 (2.5K*12 = 30K). I am assuming a higher 2.5K/month for 2010 since it is very dense in PERM filings. Any buffer needed will push the PD into 2011. Assuming again a 6K buffer and 3K/month density in 2011 - that is 2 months' demand.
So my prediction for PD for the Mar VB, assuming that HR-3012 becomes law by end of Jan 2012: 01-MAR-2011.
So many factors comes into consideration for Visa movements. I can say, i got minimal knowledge in this subject,but based on Guru's inputs< DD between 30% to 38%> dates further moves till end of Dec 2009 in coming 2 bulletins , which builds pipeline of 45K to 50K.we are all aware now AUG/SEP07 filers are getting GC's, so instead of retro, it STALLS there till end of Sep 2012. Even without HR 3012,with SOFAD 2012 dates moves to Apr 2010 between OCT 2012 to Jan 2013. if HR 3012 gets Senators approval by Mar 2012, logistics changes.
Did you consider the family factor in your calculations??Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Another look at trackitt trend
I-485EB tracker:
EB2I: PD Jan 2007 to June 2007: 646 Primary, 51 dependent
Eb2I: PD Sep 2007 to Feb 2008: 222 Primary, 26 dependent
Jan 2007 to June 2007 was 14492 PERM
Sep 2007 to Feb 2008 was 15240 PERM
We might see more additions to Sep 2007 - Feb 2008 period in future, but it unlikely to go more than double what it is right now.
Since this is I485EB trend, it is a more clearer sign of the demand or rather demand destruction
This may give us a factor of much less than 1 for PERM to I-485 conversion to demand. I am thinking more like 0.6 to 0.7. Lets see what happens in Jan 2012 USCIS I-485 inventory report.
Pls move this to appropriate thread after reply.
I need some advice. My pd is Feb 26, 2009. I see lot of positive predictions that I may get current in Feb bulletin. Meanwhile my husband is on h1b. His h1b extension is pending. His previous 797 date ended in oct 2010. He is in the process of h1b transfer for EVC model with no client letter. He thinks this move is really good for his future employment.
He has to start his new job in 2weeks. Lca is applied last week. H1b transfer will be applied in premium.
Question is, if we get RFE on h1b transfer, and we get current in Feb bulletin, will we be in trouble as far as the status is concerned?
Is there any set time period when inventory comes out? Like 1st week of Jan etc?Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Demand numbers I have used are all inclusive.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Transformer
My understanding is that I-485 tracker is only for people who have filed 485. Now, of course almost all applicants with PD between Jan-Jun 2007 did so more than four years back - but Sep 07 to Feb 08 people have just had the opportunity to do so a couple months back - it takes a while for people to get around to creating account in trackitt, put info in tracker etc. Plus people who filed recently have had their dates current since they filed - so they have a lot less worry than the pre 07/07 crowd - that also leads to less obsessive tracking and hence less numbers in 485 tracker.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
I understand what you say is entirely speculative, but interested to know why you have a lower density for 2011 compared to 2010.
The PERM approvals per month are far higher in 2011 for IC. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...hina-amp-India
In 2010 PERM approvals were 24.6k; 2011 is heading for well over 30k, since the 17k to date only represent about half a year.
In addition, 2010 PERMs are heavily loaded at the end. Jan 2010 to Sept 2010 amounts to 15k and last three months amount to almost 9kQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec - you are right - 2011 does seem more dense than 2010. I was writing from memory and even though I remember the discussion here regarding high PERM density in 2011, I still had the impression that 2010 is most dense - not the case as your data clearly shows. Thanks for pointing out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Hi Guys,
I have a question related to I-693 form. I went for medical test today and my doctor told me that HepA and HepB is only required for under 19 and only four are required for above 19 ( Td, MMR, Varicella and Flu ). I took those four but I am wondering about the HepA and HepB.
Does any one knows more about this. I cant seem to find more info on this by age either on CDC or USCIS
Sorry for posting here but I tried first on other section (I-485) and no one seems to be active there
From this post http://desiways.wordpress.com/ it seems that HepA and HepB is required. Not sure though. I'm going tomorrow for the Medical Exam. Will check with them.
Mine did not give either. He checked blood test, and obtained proof of antibodies for MMR, Varicella. He gave me Tdap and Flu. Maybe he also checked for Hep in my blood test, not sure, he ordered a whole lot of tests, including CBC, and various blood panels (I work in medical industry so know this stuff), in fact he even checked my cholesterol, diabetes etc, since the blood test covered by insurance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dce.deepak
Hi All
I'm new to this forum and joined this yesterday. My PD is March 2010 EB2 India, please can you tell me when can my PD be current. Thanks
Gurus, I have a question.
Is it true that people who were working here before and had their GCs filed (LC and I-140 approved in EB2 and EB3 category) but who may have gone back to India for various reasons can still apply for CP if their PDs are current? Do they have to have a future employment offer with the same employer in order to file for CP? I know a few who were here on EB2 and EB3 but their companies wanted them to work for them in India and some of them basically told me that they were just waiting for their PDs to be current.
I am asking this because I have seen people asking these questions on some forums.
Also, I was wondering if this is possible than are we looking at increased CP filings and possible surge in demand?
Please educate me.
Jonty,
This is very possible as the GC is for future employment. One of my friends had some issues with his H1 while he had an approved 140 and had to go to India to come back on H4 where he had preblems getting that stamped too........ ended up being stuck there for a few months. More complications followed as the visa officer put his case on hold and questioned his wife's H1 (both were through the same company). During that time his attorney had told him that in the worst case he would be able to file for 485 on the basis of his already approved 140 and an emplyment offer whenever the date became current for him. Fortunately for him he was able to come back on H4 and then got another H1 to start working. His original priority date was Feb 2008 and I believe he filed for an adjustment of status on that basis already on 1st December.
Am not sure how many such cases could exist but there is a possibility that there might be a few...would not expect them to be significant though. Also, am not sure who would want to move back here as people back home are doing a lot better than what's going on here. On ligher note.....they have more stable jobs, good money, decent savings rate and best of all they are closer to friends and family. We on the other hand are cleaning our own toilets, living paycheck to paycheck, doing lot of sulking alone while waiting for the next visa bulletin ..lol
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
per current trend hopefully yours will become current anywhere between Oct - Dec2012 ( without HR 3012 ) , if HR 3012 becomes law you can expect to file during summer 2012.
IMO - its very difficult but not impossible, specially if you are working for same company after going back to India. Important point is where the job would be located after you get GC. If compnay still wants you to work in India then not sure how much support you will get in that case. All this my based on my very limited knowledge. Lets wait for other's opinions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
Jonty,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
Yes it is true that CP might still be a possibility, but not necessarily for everybody.
With CP, the AC21 I-140 portability rules do not apply, so CP approval is only possible for the same job and same employer as on the I-140.
As part of the Consular interview, the applicant will have to produce an EVL proving that the job continues to exist and that the Employer intends to hire them upon approval.
In the specific scenario you outlined, where it was a planned decision by the Employer/Employee it would be possible.
For cases where job loss led to the return, it is not likely the EVL could be produced for the original job on the I-140.
I wondered whether there might be a slight uptick (nothing significant) in CP cases where a Porter already has an EB3 I-485 in progress, but chose to designate CP for the EB2 I-140.
I haven't really seen any evidence of huge increases to date. The NVC Waiting List shows 3,705 EB2-I CP cases pending as of November 1, 2011.
In the 2009 report, the figure was 2,996 and the 2010 report had a figure of 3,350. So, it appears to be increasing at about 350 cases per year.
Jonty
Its possible if the future employment offer is still in place.
As Spec correctly points out - AC21 doesn't apply for CP.
p.s. - There have been many cases where people left for india (and abandoned their GC application) but their 485s were still approved and they received GCs in US at a friend's address. But these are cases where USCIS overlooked. As a rule USCIS would consider such applications abandoned.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
Hello Friends,
My PD in EB2 is June 2010. Can someone predict when it will be current (with HR 3012 and without HR3012). My knowledge is very limited in GC processing. Thanks in advance!!
I have been trying to believe in this more optimistic scenario for a long time now. I have no new numbers to back up. Here is the logic,
1. The pre-approved PERM process came to an end some where in June 2007. This was fraud prone and some one could actually buy a PERM for 10K before. What percentage of PERMS were actually pre-approved ones?
2. I have a few friends who tried to apply PERM during 2008-2010 time frame. None of them could make it past that stage - they were all laid off. The DD is much larger than we think it is.
3. Not sure where the 70:30 ratio of EB2:EB3 ratio comes from. I work in the oil and gas industry where employers are very adamant not to file in EB2. Things might be better for the IT industry. But the crack down on Desi consulting industries were severe during the downturn. Getting an H1B extension was a big deal, forget about GC.
4. CO's has gone for a buffet and he wants to fill his plate. Whether he does it in one round (BTM) or several rounds is upto him. Both are logical and makes sense.
So apply Occam's Razor here - Every thing being same the best explanation is the simplest one. ie dates are moving fast and they will move even faster for the next 2-3 VBs
Disclaimer: My PD is Aug 2009. This could also be my wishful thinking.
Welcome to Aug 2009 club. I am happy just being in the discussion this early even with wishful thinking.
We all have anecdotal evidence of DD - hopefully the Demand Data or 485 inventory will soon help us quantify the extent of DD.
About EB2:EB3 split, the impression of 70:30 split is strengthened by the fact that we haven't come across many EB3I with 2008/09/10 PD. This forum is EB2 focussed - but I am sure Teddy can confirm that even in his ** thread which includes EB3, he has rarely come across EB3 with post-2007 PDs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
I just checked Perm Data for year 2010, it looks intresting. I can't beleive 2010 filings are less than 2009?
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ort_Master.pdf
Thanks Brother Deng. I will PM you when we have to file for 485 in Feb 2012 :p Till then enjoy the snow in Milwaukee.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
You have the wrong impression. PERM Certified for FY2010 is 70,854, for FY2009 is 29,388, for FY2008 is 48,923 (See Page 16 in the report). We have gone through this report before and have also validated it against Spec's PERM Data analysis posted in the Facts and Data section.
Update: I jumped the gun. Cases certified are higher but cases filed are indeed lower in 2010 (page 14 in the report). Interesting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
Pre 2008, anyone and everyone who could imagine it was filing in EB2, of course I work in the semiconductor industry. This does bring an interesting point w.r.t to industries and the proportion of PERMs. Computers, Software and IT still dominate by the looks of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
I am in the Aug 2009 boat as well. Btw.
Its interesting, two months ago I couldn't give a hoot about the visa bulletin and now I am on this forum and crunching numbers. Perhaps the EB3 interest level is low because they are so far away from getting a green card.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
I hear you. I was trying to change jobs thinking that the dates will stall at June 2008. But now that I have a good offer in hand, I can't take it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BBear123
gkjppp,Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
Those figures (a 28% drop) look correct since it relates to receipts in a Fiscal Year (October-September).
To date (according to the PERM databases) there has been a decision (Certified, Denied or Withdrawn) on cases received in the relevant FY:
FY2009 - 58,097 out of 60,977 (95.28%)
FY2010 - 43,240 out of 43,984 (98.32%)
The figure for FY2010 looks a bit high, unless audit numbers have declined but the overall figures bear out the difference noted in the Report.
As it relates to Priority Dates, in FY2009 the applications received were biased towards CY2008 (34% of all applications with a decision were submitted in October to December 2008).
Looking at the numbers by Calendar Year (January to December), the two years were quite similar in terms of Receipts. CY2009 received 48.3k applications that have had a decision and CY2010 received 48.7k applications that have had a decision to date.
As a P.S. DOL reported that FY2011 Receipts for the period Oct-May were 63% higher than the corresponding period in FY2010.
So, till now we discussed that 2009 is a very light year. And 2010 is much denser. Now, from this data, can we at least say that 2010 is also as light as 2009 if not lighter?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
feedmyback,Quote:
Originally Posted by feedmyback
Although the total number of PERM approvals for All Countries in CY2009 and CY2010 were comparable (41.7k vs 43.1k), ROW-MP numbers fell (22.9k vs 18.5k) and IC numbers increased (18.8k vs 24.6k). China numbers were virtually unchanged, so all the increase came from India.
This means the density of Indian cases is actually higher in CY2010 than CY2009.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations
Got it. Thanks Spec...