EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

I'm worried about this section. To whom is he addressing, EB2 or EB4/5?

F. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILTY IN THE COMING MONTHS

In recent weeks there has been a steadily increasing level of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. A continuation of the current demand pattern would result in a temporary establishment or retrogression of some final action dates in an effort to hold number use within the FY-2018 annual limits.

Should such action be required, there would be a full recovery in the preference category for October, the first month of fiscal year 2019.

I think he is talking about EB2-ROW

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

I'm worried about this section. To whom is addressing, EB2 or EB4/5?

F. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILTY IN THE COMING MONTHS

In recent weeks there has been a steadily increasing level of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. A continuation of the current demand pattern would result in a temporary establishment or retrogression of some final action dates in an effort to hold number use within the FY-2018 annual limits.

Should such action be required, there would be a full recovery in the preference category for October, the first month of fiscal year 2019.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Filing dates for EB2I and EB3I are very close now. Hope USCIS honors them:
EB2I - 22 May 09
EB3I - 01 May 09

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AFAIK this has never happened, USCIS honors only the final action dates - Am I wrong ? If I am correct, what is the use of these filing dates ?

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Originally Posted by newyorker123

AFAIK this has never happened, USCIS honors only the final action dates - Am I wrong ? If I am correct, what is the use of these filing dates ?

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USCIS has only honored Filing Dates for 5 months (in 2 blocks).

October - November 2015
October - December 2016

I don't expect USCIS to allow Filing Dates for any remaining months in FY2018. I hope they prove me wrong though.

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

I think he is talking about EB2-ROW

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I'd agree with this.

It can also ensure EB1-WW use all the available visas and increased use in EB3-ROW would reduce the chance of wasted visas. Last year (FY2017), 46% of EB3-ROW use (based on Trackitt) took place in the last 3 months of the FY.

I've started to notice a reduction in the processing time for I-485 that had to go to Field Offices. Perhaps this behind the rise in demand that CO is seeing.

"A continuation of the current demand pattern would result in a temporary establishment" but EB2-ROW doesn't have a cut-off date yet, is he talking about EB2-I?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I'd agree with this.

It can also ensure EB1-WW use all the available visas and increased use in EB3-ROW would reduce the chance of wasted visas. Last year (FY2017), 46% of EB3-ROW use (based on Trackitt) took place in the last 3 months of the FY.

I've started to notice a reduction in the processing time for I-485 that had to go to Field Offices. Perhaps this behind the rise in demand that CO is seeing.

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

"A continuation of the current demand pattern would result in a temporary establishment" but EB2-ROW doesn't have a cut-off date yet, is he talking about EB2-I?

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If EB2-ROW continues to see the high recent demand, CO would definitely have to think about retrogressing them at the end of the FY.

EB2-ROW have been retrogressed at the end of the FY in the previous 2 FY, so it wouldn't be anything new.

If demand subsides a bit, they might scrape through the rest of the FY without retrogression.

Hello. I used to post here under msfc. For some reason I was unable to rescue my old account. I can share from anecdotes from friends that have interviewed around the country that USCIS has improved their process for approval after field office interview. When the new policy started, interviewers were not sure of how to proceed and many cases were sent from the field office back to the Texas or Nebraska centers. In early 2018 the field offices would have to clear the approval with their supervisors. However since about April/May (there has been some difference in implementation among different field offices), the officers can approve on a same-day basis. Trackitt anecdotal evidence backs this - many are reporting that their status changes to Card Production Order the evening of their interview day.
I expect therefore for demand from EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW to return to a more normal pace. Also, a lot of the cases that had interviews August-December 2017 are probably sitting in Texas and Nebraska waiting to be approved. And as others have noted in the thread, there are probably a few pre-March 2017 cases in EB2-ROW cases sitting around.
It is interesting to note that EB3-C has now moved behind EB2-C (for final action date) but the dates for filing remain with EB3-C having a better date. It is possible DOS will try to fill the pipeline with some CP cases just in case USCIS does not demand sufficient visas. Also EB3-P is only one year retrogressed, that can be another source of CP cases.
All in all, I do not expect much wastage - and for those in EB2-I and EB3-I, there may be some extra visas available from "horizontal"" spillover, but not much. The dates may only inch forward from here for the remainder of the year.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

If EB2-ROW continues to see the high recent demand, CO would definitely have to think about retrogressing them at the end of the FY.

EB2-ROW have been retrogressed at the end of the FY in the previous 2 FY, so it wouldn't be anything new.

If demand subsides a bit, they might scrape through the rest of the FY without retrogression.

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But if EB2ROW demand was really rising enough to have them establish a cut-off date, then CO would not have risked moving EB2I to 15 Mar 2009.

Typically he would only move EB2I forward enough where he knows that he is not risking under usage by EB2ROW. If there was really increasing demand from EB2ROW then CO would have only moved EB2I to sometime in Jan/Feb 2009.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

But if EB2ROW demand was really rising enough to have them establish a cut-off date, then CO would not have risked moving EB2I to 15 Mar 2009.

Typically he would only move EB2I forward enough where he knows that he is not risking under usage by EB2ROW. If there was really increasing demand from EB2ROW then CO would have only moved EB2I to sometime in Jan/Feb 2009.

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As I mentioned, maybe he is planning to divert EB3 SO to EB2I. He should just have made both EB2I and EB3I FA dates as Mar 15, 2009!

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

But if EB2ROW demand was really rising enough to have them establish a cut-off date, then CO would not have risked moving EB2I to 15 Mar 2009.

Typically he would only move EB2I forward enough where he knows that he is not risking under usage by EB2ROW. If there was really increasing demand from EB2ROW then CO would have only moved EB2I to sometime in Jan/Feb 2009.

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Does it mean CO is expecting spillover from other EB categories to EB2-I? and can we expect more movement in Aug and Sep VB's?

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

As I mentioned, maybe he is planning to divert EB3 SO to EB2I. He should just have made both EB2I and EB3I FA dates as Mar 15, 2009!

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Even if he had made the FA date for EB3I to be Mar 15, 2009, the EB3 SO would not have been consumed by EB3I. The reason is that there are not enough applications in EB3I that have a per-adjudicated application that can consume the SO.

I think CO will keep moving EB3I FA date ahead, and as a result EB3I might be at the same PD as EB2I by the end of the FY. For the next FY , EB3I will have enough per-adjudicated applications to consume the EB3 SO.

So got an RFE SMS text around 11 pm yesterday night, EB2-IND-Oct 09.

I think mostly it will be medical, did second medical on Oct 2014, after that, there was no update on the case (NSC), also have an EAD since 2012.

Of course, we have to reply to the RFE, but what is the point of issuing medical RFE, if the PD of 2009 for EB2-IND, won't be current in one year? or I am missing something here because most of the EB2-IND people till the end of 2009 already have an EAD.

I believe USCIS would consider filing dates for EB3-India for July VB to build inventory

Can EB2I people file EB3 I140 and I485 concurrently if the EB3I filing dates go past EB2I dates and USCIS accepts them? If not, then filing dates can be used to build the EB3I inventory without worrying about immediate EB3I to EB2I downgrades.

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Originally Posted by march1612

I believe USCIS would consider filing dates for EB3-India for July VB to build inventory

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How do you 'believe' that?

So ...are we expecting any further movement of EB2I dates this year or is that it until october.

One of the tweets from AILA conference mentioned that USCIS is prioritizing EB interviews over FB so that visa wastage wont happen in EB categories.

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

So ...are we expecting any further movement of EB2I dates this year or is that it until october.

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Based on the comments from CO, it is expected to stay put at Mar 15, 2009.

There are approximately 3k applications from Jan 01, 2009 to Mar 15, 2009. I would think that some applicants between Jan to Mar might not get approved as the SO might not be enough to cover all of them.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Based on the comments from CO, it is expected to stay put at Mar 15, 2009.

There are approximately 3k applications from Jan 01, 2009 to Mar 15, 2009. I would think that some applicants between Jan to Mar might not get approved as the SO might not be enough to cover all of them.

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There goes my another $600 for medical exam (third time) without getting Green Card.

Hello Guys\Experts

Need advice on my INDIA Trip. I'm planning on taking vacation from July 24 until Aug 28th 2018 and my GC EB2 INDIA priority date is July 2nd 2009. I know CO mentioned this date will not become current within this FY. Should I go on vacation? Also, I have an old employed EB3 for the same date saying that they will be able to process once when it becomes current? Is there any chance of Eb3 becoming current for this date in next month or August? Also What is the estimated time I will become current on EB2 or EB3 I?

Appreciate all your response and guidance guys.

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

Hello Guys\Experts

Need advice on my INDIA Trip. I'm planning on taking vacation from July 24 until Aug 28th 2018 and my GC EB2 INDIA priority date is July 2nd 2009. I know CO mentioned this date will not become current within this FY. Should I go on vacation? Also, I have an old employed EB3 for the same date saying that they will be able to process once when it becomes current? Is there any chance of Eb3 becoming current for this date in next month or August? Also What is the estimated time I will become current on EB2 or EB3 I?

Appreciate all your response and guidance guys.

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Movement to Jul 2009 in next VB seems unlikely. Sept VB has slight chance (though CO has specifically indicated on not relying on any forward movement in EB2I for rest of the FY). Either ways you have enough time to cancel the travel plans (if dates move to Jul 2009 in next VB) or apply after you come back (if it moves in Sept VB).

Received the hard copy of the RFE today, wonder why it was not sent to the lawyer, but these are the things NSC have asked me to send.

1. Supplement J (still with the same employer, have EAD since 2012)
2. G-325A
3. Legal status documentation from the last admission
4. i-693, medical (This will be third medical, 2012, 2014 and now)

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Originally Posted by delguy

One of the tweets from AILA conference mentioned that USCIS is prioritizing EB interviews over FB so that visa wastage wont happen in EB categories.

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How is that possible, if they have already scheduled interviews 1 year in advance (as has been posted on this forum)? Where do they find the slots to schedule interviews upto Sept 30, if they are already booked to capacity?

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

Hello Guys\Experts

Need advice on my INDIA Trip. I'm planning on taking vacation from July 24 until Aug 28th 2018 and my GC EB2 INDIA priority date is July 2nd 2009. I know CO mentioned this date will not become current within this FY. Should I go on vacation? Also, I have an old employed EB3 for the same date saying that they will be able to process once when it becomes current? Is there any chance of Eb3 becoming current for this date in next month or August? Also What is the estimated time I will become current on EB2 or EB3 I?

Appreciate all your response and guidance guys.

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Don't worry, just go about your vacation peacefully and come back. There is nothing that cannot be done after you come back from your trip.

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Originally Posted by getsaby

Received the hard copy of the RFE today, wonder why it was not sent to the lawyer, but these are the things NSC have asked me to send.

1. Supplement J (still with the same employer, have EAD since 2012)
2. G-325A
3. Legal status documentation from the last admission
4. i-693, medical (This will be third medical, 2012, 2014 and now)

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How does your question tie in with 'Predictions and Calculations'?:rolleyes:

Need some advice.
Priority date - Oct 26, 2010 EB2 from previous employer. Changed job couple of years ago and new employer has not started process yet. I have been pushing but still in early stages. Meanwhile old employer is asking to come back but on a lower compensation than existing and less exciting project. Moving back will pay off if next financial year EB2 or EB3 moves that far. What would you advice?

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

How is that possible, if they have already scheduled interviews 1 year in advance (as has been posted on this forum)? Where do they find the slots to schedule interviews upto Sept 30, if they are already booked to capacity?

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They are scheduling two o three months in advance, a least in the NYC office. They are also now approving the green cards within hours of the interview-

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Originally Posted by Spectator

USCIS has only honored Filing Dates for 5 months (in 2 blocks).

October - November 2015
October - December 2016

I don't expect USCIS to allow Filing Dates for any remaining months in FY2018. I hope they prove me wrong though.

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Dear Spec

USCIS will never prove you wrong. The filing dates is same as FAD for July 2018 . :-)

Why do you need the new employer to do anything? If you have an already approved I-140 and are only waiting for your PD to get current so that you can file I-485 then you can do so yourself. What am I missing here?

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Why do you need the new employer to do anything? If you have an already approved I-140 and are only waiting for your PD to get current so that you can file I-485 then you can do so yourself. What am I missing here?

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When I join new employer, GC process needs to be started again. Only if I go back to old employer I can just wait for PD to be current. My question is, for a PD of EB2 Oct-2010 is it worth going back to old employer hoping it will be current within next year or wait for new employer to begin process and wait till it reaches I-140 stage which may take at least 1.5 years. Even if there is a chance for EB3 to reach that far I may downgrade

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Originally Posted by dev2010

When I join new employer, GC process needs to be started again. Only if I go back to old employer I can just wait for PD to be current. My question is, for a PD of EB2 Oct-2010 is it worth going back to old employer hoping it will be current within next year or wait for new employer to begin process and wait till it reaches I-140 stage which may take at least 1.5 years. Even if there is a chance for EB3 to reach that far I may downgrade

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If the two jobs are similar, you are allowed to switch employers: AC 21.

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Originally Posted by nbk1976

If the two jobs are similar, you are allowed to switch employers: AC 21.

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I can't port my I-140 no matter how similar 2 jobs are. As I have never filled I-1485 I will need to restart process with new employer.

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Originally Posted by nbk1976

If the two jobs are similar, you are allowed to switch employers: AC 21.

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That is only after 485 is filed and 6 months passed and a PD with Oct 2010 has not filed 485 yet.

An Off-topic advise from you:

My project team including me are changing location from the one I work in to across the street which is walk able distance.

Do I need to file for an amendment? If yes, do I have to file for amendment before move or after? Can I file extension along with amendment ?

Please advice upon your convinience

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Originally Posted by texas_

An Off-topic advise from you:

My project team including me are changing location from the one I work in to across the street which is walk able distance.

Do I need to file for an amendment? If yes, do I have to file for amendment before move or after? Can I file extension along with amendment ?

Please advice upon your convinience

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You don't need to file amendment anytime you move within same MSA(Metropolitan statistical area). I am sure across the street will be within same MSA

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Originally Posted by dev2010

You don't need to file amendment anytime you move within same MSA(Metropolitan statistical area). I am sure across the street will be within same MSA

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Thanks Dev2010, That's exactly what my employer told me.
Jay

hi Gurus,
have a quick Q.
i am in a dilemma, my date just got current in the July VB.
just before that i had recd rfe's for 485-J, new medicals and proof of maintained legal status
all of that was provided and uscis case status shows they have recd the RFE documents and are processing it. the my PD became current just after this in July VB (Eb2-I Feb 09)
I have EAD since 2014 October and have already renewd it twice with current one expiring in early 2020.
so now the big Q is should i just wait for them to go through everything at their pace and expect to get greened soon,
or should i go the route (some of my friends suggested) of sending a letter to my local congressman about the situation that date is current and still GC not recd etc....

Please advice gurus, thanks in advance!

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Originally Posted by meragc

hi Gurus,
have a quick Q.
i am in a dilemma, my date just got current in the July VB.
just before that i had recd rfe's for 485-J, new medicals and proof of maintained legal status
all of that was provided and uscis case status shows they have recd the RFE documents and are processing it. the my PD became current just after this in July VB (Eb2-I Feb 09)
I have EAD since 2014 October and have already renewd it twice with current one expiring in early 2020.
so now the big Q is should i just wait for them to go through everything at their pace and expect to get greened soon,
or should i go the route (some of my friends suggested) of sending a letter to my local congressman about the situation that date is current and still GC not recd etc....

Please advice gurus, thanks in advance!

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You are not yet current. You would want to give USCIS the normal processing time before escalating. You are well settled with your EAD - there is no urgent reason for you to do congressman/senator etc. If your date stays current for a few months and there is no update on your case then you should start following up. Just my personal opinion and what I would do in your place.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

You are not yet current. You would want to give USCIS the normal processing time before escalating. You are well settled with your EAD - there is no urgent reason for you to do congressman/senator etc. If your date stays current for a few months and there is no update on your case then you should start following up. Just my personal opinion and what I would do in your place.

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thanks for the response, do appreciate your honest opinion here
so if i understand it correctly you say i am not yet current is because the dates are applicable to July and we are still in June yeah??