EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Spec,

You are correct. That is what I have been wondering. I feel it is best to go with your advice to treat the rest of the data in inventory as unimportant and inaccurate. The only good use of the inventory is to see the pending EB2I demand. EB2ROW and EB1 numbers may be misleading.

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I didn't say it was unimportant. I might say I wouldn't be concerned at looking at the individual monthly totals and trying to explain them.

In general, it's difficult to glean information, because any changes are only net. Without knowing either the number of approvals, or the number of additions within a period, I find it difficult to tease out truly useful information.

That's without even considering that there are cases that will never (theoretically) ever appear in the Inventory. i.e. the I-140 is approved after publication of the last Inventory and the I-485 is approved before the publication of the next Inventory.

My memory is a little hazy (since it was some months ago) and I am not going to repeat the exercise, but where there was sufficient information in the Trackitt case, I remember around a third of EB1C Trackitt approvals this year would never have appeared in the Inventory for that reason. I don't consider that figure very reliable, because only a subset of total cases had sufficient information to analyze. I did it more out of my own interest to just get an idea and I mention it only to illustrate the difficulties.

That's not to say someone else looking at the data might not have that aha moment - I've realized my shortcomings in trying to do so. And I have tried multiple times.

I would say the same about trying to gauge future EB3 demand from the PERM data. Another problem I have found intractable to date.

Enough wallowing in self pity. Sniff. :)

I think both those problems need new blood, with new enthusiasm to tackle them.

Dear Friends, Been a while since I logged in... but was mostly here reading up on the excellent analysis. Had to log in today to share ... finally got greened. Details:

PD - 03/23/2009
I-140 Approval - 04/18/2011
Fingerprinting - 03/26/2012
EAD/AP Approval - 03/10/2012
EAD/AP Card - 03/14/2012
I-485 Approval - 05/05/2014
Green Card - 05/08/2014

I received under Chinese quota (my wife is Chinese). FYI I got a note in Apr from a legal representative from the firm that filed my case that they will send a note to USCIS about my eligibility for cross chargeability for a fee. But they also disclosed that cross chargeability is applied automatically and generally there would be no need for any kind of follow up. I choose not to follow up (wait for a few days first)... luckily case was approved pretty fast.

Many congratulations for the GC infoseek! Enjoy the freedom. What an innovative lawyer.

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Originally Posted by infoseek

Dear Friends, Been a while since I logged in... but was mostly here reading up on the excellent analysis. Had to log in today to share ... finally got greened. Details:

PD - 03/23/2009
I-140 Approval - 04/18/2011
Fingerprinting - 03/26/2012
EAD/AP Approval - 03/10/2012
EAD/AP Card - 03/14/2012
I-485 Approval - 05/05/2014
Green Card - 05/08/2014

I received under Chinese quota (my wife is Chinese). FYI I got a note in Apr from a legal representative from the firm that filed my case that they will send a note to USCIS about my eligibility for cross chargeability for a fee. But they also disclosed that cross chargeability is applied automatically and generally there would be no need for any kind of follow up. I choose not to follow up (wait for a few days first)... luckily case was approved pretty fast.

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infoseek,

Congratulations.

Interesting document revealing the past EB stats and the calculations used by DHS to arrive at the pending/approved I-140s with H1Bs and still waiting to file I-485s.
http://www.ofr.gov/OFRUpload/OFRData/2014-10734_PI.pdf

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Interesting document revealing the past EB stats and the calculations used by DHS to arrive at the pending/approved I-140s with H1Bs and still waiting to file I-485s.
http://www.ofr.gov/OFRUpload/OFRData/2014-10734_PI.pdf

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I thought the other document dealing with Enhancing Opportunities for H-1B1, CW-1, and E-3 Nonimmigrants and EB-1 Immigrants was equally, or more interesting, since it contained some very rare statistics for EB1 on page 52.

It gives data for Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker (I-140) with Outstanding Professor or Researcher Preference Receipts and Completions, FY 2003-2013, shows an over 93.3% approval % over the last 5 years and that there are only an average of about 3.3k I-140 applications per year under EB1B over the last 5 years. Even with the average number of dependents for EB1, the approval figures suggest there are only about 8k I-485 approvals per year.

It's not entirely new information, since it can be derived form the DHS figures, but interesting nonetheless.

I read an article in the Huffingtonpost where it states that the total number of Green cards issued last year (2013) has decreased dramatically

"net immigration down from nearly 1.2 million as of 2001 to 843,145 last year"
This is the link to the article

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5218833.html

Since the DHS Statistical Year book for FY-2013 has not been published,I am assuming that somebody at Huffpost has had a sneak peek at the statistics. However according to one of Spec's links to the DoS THE FB to EB Spillover has already been calculated and is about 10000 indicating that most of the FB visas were used.The refugee quota was met last year and so was the EB. I wonder where the drop is coming from and I can only think of the Immediate relatives category

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Originally Posted by gs1968

I read an article in the Huffingtonpost where it states that the total number of Green cards issued last year (2013) has decreased dramatically

"net immigration down from nearly 1.2 million as of 2001 to 843,145 last year"
This is the link to the article

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_5218833.html

Since the DHS Statistical Year book for FY-2013 has not been published,I am assuming that somebody at Huffpost has had a sneak peek at the statistics. However according to one of Spec's links to the DoS THE FB to EB Spillover has already been calculated and is about 10000 indicating that most of the FB visas were used.The refugee quota was met last year and so was the EB. I wonder where the drop is coming from and I can only think of the Immediate relatives category

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gs1968,

That seems too low a figure.

I wonder if the clue is that they are talking about NET immigration, so Americans emigrating would be deducted from Immigrants arriving.

As far as last year (FY2013) is concerned, some figures can be gleaned from the DOS reports already published.

FB ------- 215,753
EB ------- 161,269
Diversity -- 51,080

Consular Processed Immediate Relatives were 205,435 (compared to 235,616 in FY2012). Using the same split between CP and AOS for IR as in FY2012 implies :

IR ------- 411,895 (compared to 478,780 in FY2012)

I couldn't find any information about Refugees and Asylees.

If we assume the number as the same as FY2012 (151k) and do the same for other categories not included, then overall Immigration is about 1 million, which is comparable to the number in FY2012.

To Spec
Thanks for the clarification.For some reason the net number was too low even by the standards of the snail-paced USCIS!

Asylum numbers are hard to find but the annual refugee totals are in the link below

http://www.wrapsnet.org/Home/tabid/5...rs-Are-In.aspx

The ceiling for FY-2013 was the same as this year i.e 70000. That was almost completely achieved according to the link above which is a huge improvement from FY-2012 (56000 resettled against a ceiling of 70000).

WRAPSNET also gives a running total bi-monthly on refugee resettlement including an breakdown on primary beneficiaries and derivatives.The conservatives have always argued the difference between "ceiling" and "target"!!

To Spec

I need to clarify the above post on the refugee numbers. The numbers on the webpage reflect refugee arrivals in the uSA but by law they can apply for I-485 only after 12 months.Hence the year book numbers reflect AOS for refugees who arrived in the previous FY and in FY-2012 this was only 58200. However the net refugee numbers are always in excess of the ceiling due to family re-unification (following-to-join) and not considering Cuban refugees towards the ceiling (usually about 25000 per year).It still seems enough to reach the one million mark as you have said.We will know soon when the next YearBook is released in June

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Originally Posted by gs1968

To Spec

I need to clarify the above post on the refugee numbers. The numbers on the webpage reflect refugee arrivals in the USA but by law they can apply for I-485 only after 12 months.Hence the year book numbers reflect AOS for refugees who arrived in the previous FY and in FY-2012 this was only 58200. However the net refugee numbers are always in excess of the ceiling due to family re-unification (following-to-join) and not considering Cuban refugees towards the ceiling (usually about 25000 per year).It still seems enough to reach the one million mark as you have said.We will know soon when the next Year Book is released in June

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gs1968,

Thanks for the additional explanations about refugee numbers and how they work. Consider yourself the expert on the matter.

I admit I was slightly confused, because despite the 70k ceiling mentioned in your first post, the number of refugees reported in the DHS figures for FY2012 was 105,528. Your additional information explains the difference.

Thanks.

To Spec
I promise that this will be the last on this subject as I feel that the majority of us in this forum are interested in EB visa issues.The Cubans qualify under the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966 where if they can show residence in the USA for 12 months they are eligible for LPR status

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_R...Adjustment_Act

These numbers are not counted towards the annual ceiling and can obviously vary from year to year. Also the US guarantees 20000 visitor visas to Cuba to avoid Cubans making risky attempts to cross the seas and a lot of them end up adjusting their status.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

infoseek,

Congratulations.

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Q/Spec,
Thank you. Also thanks for this excellent forum. All the analysis by all Gurus here was very helpful with many decisions during the wait time.

Spec,

Whats your gut feel about the movement for this year for EB2-I. Wait is killing all of us...

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Originally Posted by sairam09

Spec,

Whats your gut feel about the movement for this year for EB2-I. Wait is killing all of us...

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I've already put my thoughts on the first page, which I update fairly frequently, but the uncertainty is such that the range alters almost daily.

Pessimistic to Optimistic, I could see a range of 01OCT08 to 01MAR09 with a likely point at about 01JAN09. It is looking increasingly tough for PD2009 people this year.

It depends how EB2-WW and EB1 perform during the remainder of the year. I can see it going either way. Of course, the amount of pent up porting that can be approved when the dates move forward is also another consideration.

Guys a couple of observations from a few datapoints available:
Two datapoints used in this:
1. Latest 485 Inventory (Apr 1 2014) -
- At a macro level - backlogs are increasing slightly - especially so in EB1. But that increase very well could be random nature of processing. So I wouldn't take anything from that. The best takeaway one can take is at least it does indicate a reasonably healthy but not necessarily high demand across all categories.
- EB2I+EB3I show reduction of approx 4K which is consistent with their 6 months quota. EB3I reduction is higher than EB2I reduction which makes sense indicating portings. However I think the porting trend is still stable at 4-5K max per year.
- EB4/5 nothing can be deduced from this data. Too few numbers to say anything. But this is how it always has been with EB4/5.
- EB3C shows increase which means EB3C won't be current this year at least.
- EB3ROW shows stable backlog which means EB3ROW retrogression if any should be short lived and dates should continue their march forward.

2. 485 Performance data for Q1 of 2014
This data is actually more interesting and shows less than quota approvals. It shows 31K approvals in Q1 against a total quota of 40K (27% of 150K). If you adjust for CP, the total approvals could very well be 37K. That means 3K from Q1 alone would be seen in EB2 eventually. So it would be safe to assume 10-12K of spillover for EB2I.

Will update the header soon....

Header updated.

All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2014, 2nd Qtr) ........http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y2014_qtr2.pdf

Thanks Kamani!

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2014, 2nd Qtr) ........http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y2014_qtr2.pdf

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Wow! This is holy grail of data.

Guys... DOS and USCIS get a lot of flak. But I think thanks and congratulations are due for transparency from both organizations.

For Employment 2 Quarters are empty what does that mean?

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Originally Posted by sairam09

For Employment 2 Quarters are empty what does that mean?

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USCIS quarters are
Q1 - Oct - Dec
Q2 - Jan - Mar
Q3 - Apr - Jun
Q4 - July - Sep

Since we are in Q3 - Q3/4 data is not yet in.

Thanks Q :)

If you check this other piece of stats...

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...fy2014qtr2.pdf

The total no of 485 approved by Nebraska and Texas are 28,572 at the end of report for Q2. So If the total approvals as per your comment are 30,651 then I wonder 2079 are coming from Consular Processing etc

sport - dont forget cp. They are not part of this data.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

If it's "only" 31K per quarter, that's too good to be true too. It points to a potentially very large spillover unless we are excluding Eb4/EB5. I have to profess a complete ignorance on that aspect.

Even if we include EB4/EB5, the number doesn't look bad and points to a 10-15K spillover at least.

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This is the page that has all the perf data reports

i-485
http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-s...ustment-status


all forms
http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-s...ion-form-types

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

If CP is not part of the date, the picture doesn't look good.

30*4 = 120K for the whole year. Add at least 15K CP cases for EB4/EB5 and 10K CP cases for EB2/3. The spillover available is very less at this point and that's what the AILA update seemed to indicate.

Unless the approvals slow down. I hope they slow down significantly in the last quarter especially for EB2-ROW.

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sports,

Doesn't that ignore the fact that the figures to date also include EB2-I approvals.

Simplistically, as an example, if you thought the total figures to date included 6k EB2-I approvals, then simply double the total, it might account for 12k EB2-I cases. Adding your 5k left would increase the figure to 17k.

I don't think it is that simple, but it doesn't imply only a further 5k are available either.

I'm not sure EB2-ROW approvals will necessarily slow down in the second half, but EB3-ROW/M/C certainly will.

Was checking 2013 report

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...rms-Q42013.pdf

Something seriously wrong with Q4 I-485 approvals ? Only 16K .

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Originally Posted by redwood

Was checking 2013 report

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...rms-Q42013.pdf

Something seriously wrong with Q4 I-485 approvals ? Only 16K .

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redwood,

If you check previous reports, you will find that some of the Q2 figures are completely different in the Q4 report.

If you restore the original figure, then Q4 approvals becomes higher and more sensible.

e.g. The Q4 report shows Q2 I-485 approvals as 55,145. It was 32,825 in previous reports. Restoring that to Q2 in the Q4 report would make Q4 rise to 38,584 instead of 16,264.

EB2-I alone had around 15k AOS approvals in Q4, not to mention about another 5k for EB3-I.

There are other examples and some figures cannot be reconciled to other reports from USCIS for the same period.

It's unfortunate, but the report can't be trusted. There are some oddities in the latest report. I'll wait to see what the Dashboard figures are to reconcile those.

As a PS, I think the new format is a huge backward step. It may be simpler to read, but it does not provide as much information. For example, I-360 sub categories used to be shown, which enabled me to just look at the numbers that contribute to EB4 approvals. That is no longer possible.

I don't see why there should be any slow down.

However the good thing is - these numbers indeed contains all categories and countries including backlogged. So any delta you calculate will be pure spillover to EB2IC (assuming there is none in EB3).

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

If CP is not part of the date, the picture doesn't look good.

30*4 = 120K for the whole year. Add at least 15K CP cases for EB4/EB5 and 10K CP cases for EB2/3. The spillover available is very less at this point and that's what the AILA update seemed to indicate.

Unless the approvals slow down. I hope they slow down significantly in the last quarter especially for EB2-ROW.

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In both Q1 and Q2 the approvals plus denials are higher than the number of new EB I-485 applications. But the number of pending applications has gone up from Q1 to Q2.
Is it because of MTRs filed by the denied applicants that put them back in the pending queue ? Or is it applications from before Q1 and in Q1 that somehow didn't show up under Q1 pending but show in Q2 pending ?
Can someone please help me understand ?

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Originally Posted by willywonka

In both Q1 and Q2 the approvals plus denials are higher than the number of new EB I-485 applications. But the number of pending applications has gone up from Q1 to Q2.
Is it because of MTRs filed by the denied applicants that put them back in the pending queue ? Or is it applications from before Q1 and in Q1 that somehow didn't show up under Q1 pending but show in Q2 pending ?
Can someone please help me understand ?

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Willywonka,

There is a processing time lag of 3 months between Receipt and approval of all applications subject to current priority date. Applications received in the 4th quarter of FY2013 usually gets approved in the 1st quarter of FY2014 onwards.

In this case - the report has a foot note that says - the data only shows the cases reported in the case tracking system. So that could also explain the delta.

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Originally Posted by willywonka

In both Q1 and Q2 the approvals plus denials are higher than the number of new EB I-485 applications. But the number of pending applications has gone up from Q1 to Q2.
Is it because of MTRs filed by the denied applicants that put them back in the pending queue ? Or is it applications from before Q1 and in Q1 that somehow didn't show up under Q1 pending but show in Q2 pending ?
Can someone please help me understand ?

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Hi Q,Spec,Gurus,
Is there any change in EB2I date movement due to this new data?Or still it can move between Aug2008-Jan 2009?
Thank You!

The I-526 figures were also released as a separate report.

FY ---------- Receipt -- Approved -- Denied -- Approval % -- Pending -- EB5 Use
2008 ---------- 1,258 ------- 642 ----- 120 --------- 84% ------ 853 ---- 1,443
2009 ---------- 1,031 ----- 1,265 ----- 208 --------- 86% ------ 514 ---- 4,218
2010 ---------- 1,953 ----- 1,369 ----- 165 --------- 89% ---- 1,125 ---- 1,885
2011 ---------- 3,805 ----- 1,571 ----- 372 --------- 81% ---- 3,347 ---- 3,463
2012 ---------- 6,041 ----- 3,677 ----- 957 --------- 79% ---- 5,018 ---- 7,641
2013 ---------- 6,346 ----- 3,699 ----- 943 --------- 80% ---- 7,131 ---- 8,564

2014 Q1/Q2 ---- 4,683 ----- 2,882 --- 1,068 --------- 73% ---- 8,302

2014 Prorated - 9,366 ----- 5,764 --- 2,136

Receipts and Approvals are sharply up compared to the same time last FY.

Processing times for I-526 were 13.2 months at the end of March 2014.

At the latest approval rate, the 8,302 pending cases represent 6,057 I-526 approvals over time. At the historical 2.9 EB5 visas per I-526 approval, that translates to a backlog of ~17.6k EB5 approvals.

As of November 1, 2013, NVC had the following number of EB5 cases in progress:

PD Year ---- No.
2011 ------ 966
2012 ---- 2,969
2013 ------ 813

Total --- 4,748

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Thanks spec!

So this points to a large spillover from EB5. I take that as good news.

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Sports,

Why do you think that and define "large".

Remember this is I-526 (equivalent to I-140 for EB5) and each I-526 approval will translate to 2.9 EB5 visa approvals eventually.

To us data-ignorant folks, can somebody explain what the new data means for possible PD movement in the coming months for EB2I?

I have a PD of 12/16/2008 - what are the chances I will get greened?

Thx!

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Originally Posted by helooo

Hi Q,Spec,Gurus,
Is there any change in EB2I date movement due to this new data?Or still it can move between Aug2008-Jan 2009?
Thank You!

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Atleast from my side no change in my predictions. I still believe the EB2-I numbers will move to around Mar2009.
I was closely following the recently released data pointers but none of them is forcing me to change my earlier predictions.
Again the key for the EB2-I movement is due to EB2-ROW spillover.
I do see the recent increase in PERM approvals but that will affect very badly the next year spillover for EB2-I.

The USCIS Dashboard has just been updated with the March 2014 Figures.

Any thing surprising for you?