EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

This makes much more sense. The word probably is resident rather than permanent resident. And the POV is IRS rather than USCIS.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

The Permanent Resident refers to the IRS definition of the term, not the Immigration one.

I can imagine that some states have limits on Non Residents (in the TAX rather than IMMIGRANT sense) being eligible.

There probably isn't a single person on the forum who isn't Resident for tax purposes due to the Substantial Presence Test.

Certainly Non Residents are eligible in some States and a hefty sum is withheld as a flat 30% rate Federal tax and State tax might be applicable depending where the purchase was made.

Non Residents are apparently eligible to buy Powerball and MegaMillions, since both are multi-state lotteries.

The tickets must be purchased in the USA and different lotteries (Powerball is one I believe) also have rules stipulating that the prize must be claimed in the State the ticket was purchased.

YMMV

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Q/SPEC,

I need help here.
I have applied for my I485 this month. Waiting for approval of EAD,AP and I485. But, my apartment lease is getting over by end of September. I have been asked to vacate the apartment for remodeling. I have to move out from the apartment, but am trying to negotiate with apartment office to extend it till end of this Year i.e. 12/2013. So, they are taking advantage of the situation now by increasing rent by 40%. Am little confused should I vacate the apartment or do I have chances if I wait till Dec2013 to get GC? MyPD is in NOV2007.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

This makes much more sense. The word probably is resident rather than permanent resident. And the POV is IRS rather than USCIS.

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Q/SPEC,

I need help here.
I have applied for my I485 this month. Waiting for approval of EAD,AP and I485. But, my apartment lease is getting over by end of September. I have been asked to vacate the apartment for remodeling. I have to move out from the apartment, but am trying to negotiate with apartment office to extend it till end of this Year i.e. 12/2013. So, they are taking advantage of the situation now by increasing rent by 40%. Am little confused should I vacate the apartment or do I have chances if I wait till Dec2013 to get GC? MyPD is in NOV2007.

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I don't see the issue here. Why wouldn't you just move and file an AR11 and call the 1800 number? Or ask your lawyer to do so. What am i missing?

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?action=coa

Thanks Pedro. But what I heard due to address change the process gets delayed by subjecting to background check again. So many people who have vicinity of getting GC don't consider changing address and filing ar-11 forms and updating all applications. So my question for you,Q/Spec was to know if there are any chances of NOV2007 remaining current untill NOV or DEC this year. If its not going to be current then I don't have pay twice the rent what am paying currently and I can go with what you suggested in your previous post. I know its quite difficult for Q/SPEC to predict here, since they don't have any accurate metrics to perform their calculation and analysis. But, its just a suggestion am seeking.

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Thanks Pedro. But what I heard due to address change the process gets delayed by subjecting to background check again. So many people who have vicinity of getting GC don't consider changing address and filing ar-11 forms and updating all applications. So my question for you,Q/Spec was to know if there are any chances of NOV2007 remaining current untill NOV or DEC this year. If its not going to be current then I don't have pay twice the rent what am paying currently and I can go with what you suggested in your previous post. I know its quite difficult for Q/SPEC to predict here, since they don't have any accurate metrics to perform their calculation and analysis. But, its just a suggestion am seeking.

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I hadn't heard of an address change causing delays, but I can see how it would be a concern. For what it's worth, I've heard of cases on trackitt where address changes resulted in the application getting picked up and approved . Have you looked through the various threads on the subject there?

I think most gurus here think the dates will retrogress in October or November, and that it is unlikely (though certainly possible) that you will get before your GC before then. Comparing the relative probability of getting your GC pre retrogression (say 25%) against the probability of a delay due to a change of address (in my mind 10%), I can't justify paying any more in rent just on account of your GC.

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Thanks Pedro. But what I heard due to address change the process gets delayed by subjecting to background check again. So many people who have vicinity of getting GC don't consider changing address and filing ar-11 forms and updating all applications. So my question for you,Q/Spec was to know if there are any chances of NOV2007 remaining current untill NOV or DEC this year. If its not going to be current then I don't have pay twice the rent what am paying currently and I can go with what you suggested in your previous post. I know its quite difficult for Q/SPEC to predict here, since they don't have any accurate metrics to perform their calculation and analysis. But, its just a suggestion am seeking.

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you'll see the Oct VB by mid-Sept at the latest. So you'll have a little bit more info to decide to stay on (personally I wouldn't stay). Also, I dont know how it works with government mail but can you "hold mail" at the post office and just pick it up in person?

I really doubt they will re-do a background check based on a new address that you've had for a few days (at most).

Long time reader and follower (like since late 2010) of the blog. Finally joined here. Thanks every one for your analysis and readiness to help every query. This is an awesome place!

Thanks MakSimus for registering on this site.
I would request all others who just get-in to this forum as visitor and leaving, to create thier ids. This is just my request to creare a id here and post your thoughts and understanding of how PD will move. This way exchanging information here helps lot of people.

Viz/Pedro, Thanks for your quick reply.
Viz: what you say makes sense, next VB will definitely lead us to good numbers to formulate predictions for next FY. Will wait till next month end and decide upon address change.

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Originally Posted by Maksimus

Long time reader and follower (like since late 2010) of the blog. Finally joined here. Thanks every one for your analysis and readiness to help every query. This is an awesome place!

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This is my first post on this forum. First of all I would like to thank all the gurus for their selfless effort to provide accurate calculations and predictions.

I know the chances of dates moving in Oct bulletin is almost NIL and I had set my expectations for 3rd quarter of 2014. But after receiving RFE today there is this small ray of hope in me that tells be dates might move in Oct. Gurus please share your thoughts.

My PD : Jul-02-2008

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Thanks MakSimus for registering on this site.
I would request all others who just get-in to this forum as visitor and leaving, to create thier ids. This is just my request to creare a id here and post your thoughts and understanding of how PD will move. This way exchanging information here helps lot of people.

Viz/Pedro, Thanks for your quick reply.
Viz: what you say makes sense, next VB will definitely lead us to good numbers to formulate predictions for next FY. Will wait till next month end and decide upon address change.

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Its better to submit address change now, once you have receipts. If its next month , there can timing issues with ead approvals. If u have h1 in parallel and moving out of state or such conditions are the problem creators.

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Originally Posted by justwaiting

This is my first post on this forum. First of all I would like to thank all the gurus for their selfless effort to provide accurate calculations and predictions.

I know the chances of dates moving in Oct bulletin is almost NIL and I had set my expectations for 3rd quarter of 2014. But after receiving RFE today there is this small ray of hope in me that tells be dates might move in Oct. Gurus please share your thoughts.

My PD : Jul-02-2008

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your RFE has nothing to do with date movements but its good that someone reviewed your file and will clarify all their questions and once you are current ( probably in 3rd/4th Q) you will have less chances of RFE.

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Originally Posted by indiani

your RFE has nothing to do with date movements but its good that someone reviewed your file and will clarify all their questions and once you are current ( probably in 3rd/4th Q) you will have less chances of RFE.

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Agree 100% with Indiani. It's a very good sign for those current now as well as those who are just outside the window.
1) they are processing cases past the COD in advance
2) they are in good shape with ppl current in august to have the bandwidth to do so

Spec, According to http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf there are about 220,000 people in waiting list for F2A. The annual quota was 88,000. CO thought that to use the annual quota he has to make dates current and so he did. Does this imply that 88,000 of the 220,000 follow through with a visa request? May be a little more depending on where the cutoff date lands in October bulletin. To me it is a curious case.

Why create a cutoff date in October? Why not wait till the exhaustion of Q1 quota and see where the usage lands. Or does CO think, the additional demand from making dates current is enough to use up Q1 quota? Your insight are very helpful in building an analytical picture. Thanks for all the wonderful work you do on the forum.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Agree 100% with Indiani. It's a very good sign for those current now as well as those who are just outside the window.
1) they are processing cases past the COD in advance
2) they are in good shape with ppl current in august to have the bandwidth to do so

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I am a little confused - would be great if one of the gurus could explain the process to me:

- my understanding was that most 485 cases filed in 2011/2012 have been pre-adjudicated and are now waiting in some sort of 'cold storage', waiting for PD to come close so they can be retrieved and approved when a VISA number becomes available.

- if thats thats the case, then why would getting a RFE for a July 2008 case not be a sign that dates may move forward again?

- lastly, except for final RFE for EVL (or whatever else), what kind of processing may USCIS need to do once the case is pre-adj? Does this mean that a large number of cases remain in cold storage that are not pre-adj?

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by mechanical13

I am a little confused - would be great if one of the gurus could explain the process to me:

- my understanding was that most 485 cases filed in 2011/2012 have been pre-adjudicated and are now waiting in some sort of 'cold storage', waiting for PD to come close so they can be retrieved and approved when a VISA number becomes available.

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this is true

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- if thats thats the case, then why would getting a RFE for a July 2008 case not be a sign that dates may move forward again?

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Dates will move forward at some time or another. It doesn't mean they'll move forward in Oct.

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- lastly, except for final RFE for EVL (or whatever else), what kind of processing may USCIS need to do once the case is pre-adj? Does this mean that a large number of cases remain in cold storage that are not pre-adj?
Thanks!

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based on the last data, almost all cases are pre-adjudicated. But pre-adjudicated doesn't mean approved. So the case officer reserves the right to review the case again and RFE. It could be anything from a birth certificate review to another background check.. its up to the case officer.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Spec, According to http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf there are about 220,000 people in waiting list for F2A. The annual quota was 88,000. CO thought that to use the annual quota he has to make dates current and so he did. Does this imply that 88,000 of the 220,000 follow through with a visa request? May be a little more depending on where the cutoff date lands in October bulletin. To me it is a curious case.

Why create a cutoff date in October? Why not wait till the exhaustion of Q1 quota and see where the usage lands. Or does CO think, the additional demand from making dates current is enough to use up Q1 quota? Your insight are very helpful in building an analytical picture. Thanks for all the wonderful work you do on the forum.

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kd,

I assume that when CO saw the reports from the Consulates in the first week of July, he concluded that insufficient applicants were following through with NVC to reach the interview stage to use up the available visas for the year. We can probably ignore AOS because it won't form a large part of F2A approvals (<5% last year). To do so, applicants need to submit what was called packet 4 and NVC need to process it.

Since 95%+ of approvals will come from within the DOS system, I imagine CO is receiving pretty good information from NVC on the number of people who are now processing packet 4.

I would guess he already knows that there will be more applicants documentarily qualified in October than can be sustained by the allocation for F2A in October 2013.

There's some previous history that such movements generate significant Demand.

When the dates for F2A were last moved forward in a similar manner from June 2010 to December 2010, the dates reached 01AUG10 in the December VB, having started at 01DEC06 in the May VB. Following that, over a 3 month period, the dates retrogressed to 01JAN07 in the March 2011 VB.

In the July 2010 VB he used fairly similar language to that used recently.

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D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE FAMILY-SPONSORED CATEGORIES

There continues to be extremely rapid forward movement of most Family preference cut-off dates. This is a direct result of the lack of demand by potential applicants who have chosen not to pursue final action on their cases, or who may no longer be eligible for status. The rapid movement provides the best opportunity to maximize number use under the FY-2010 annual numerical limitations. Should applicants eventually decide to pursue action on their cases it will have a significant impact on the cut-off dates.

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He then warned of retrogression in the December VB. He then retrogressed in the January VB and warned of further retrogression, which followed in both the February and March VBs.

That's my best guess anyway.

Hi Q,Gurus,
If the dates retrogress in next VB,then what scenario can move the dates forward at the end of first quarter?

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Originally Posted by helooo

Hi Q,Gurus,
If the dates retrogress in next VB,then what scenario can move the dates forward at the end of first quarter?

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None that I can realistically think of.

Even if there were some spare FB visas, I don't think CO would release them that early in the year.

The only scenario I could see would be if retrogression was extremely harsh and then the actual distribution of the PD for the cases allowed some forward movement to use the allocation. Even in that scenario, it would still be a net retrogression from where we are today.

Hopefully, CO will realize that leaving movement to August is just too late and move slightly earlier next year. I still wouldn't expect any real movement until late Q3, and only then if a large amount of SO is expected.

When he had a large number and moved from May, it worked reasonably well in FY2011.

Spec predicted very accurately in Nov 2012 that.... "Assuming no porting, EB2-C should reach around mid 2008 by the end of FY2013"... however I did not anticipate a complete lack of movement once it hits the mid 2008(which it did in June 2013). Gurus, can you explain the reasoning behind the lack of movement for EB2 China? any predictions for FY2014? As always, thanks for the excellent analysis and information.

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Originally Posted by infoseek

Spec predicted very accurately in Nov 2012 that.... "Assuming no porting, EB2-C should reach around mid 2008 by the end of FY2013"... however I did not anticipate a complete lack of movement once it hits the mid 2008(which it did in June 2013). Gurus, can you explain the reasoning behind the lack of movement for EB2 China? any predictions for FY2014? As always, thanks for the excellent analysis and information.

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infoseek,

Ultimately EB2-C moved slightly further because the 7% figure increased from 2,803 to 3,172.

Personally, I still believe the law says EB2-C should receive 7% of any Fall Down, but the lack of movement suggests that is not the interpretation used. Either that or there were quite a lot of Porting/New Applications that were approved.

Why the date movement stopped so early is a mystery to me. I can only guess that CO accelerated it a bit early, then hit the limit.

Assuming all cases before 08AUG08 were approved, no porting and 2,803 visa being available, EB2-C would reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUN09 by the end of FY2014.

So I think we're looking at anywhere in the 01MAR09 to 01JUN09 range.

That also assumes no extra FB visas are available. Clearly the dates could move a little further if there were extra visas from FB.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

infoseek,

Ultimately EB2-C moved slightly further because the 7% figure increased from 2,803 to 3,172.

Personally, I still believe the law says EB2-C should receive 7% of any Fall Down, but the lack of movement suggests that is not the interpretation used. Either that or there were quite a lot of Porting/New Applications that were approved.

Why the date movement stopped so early is a mystery to me. I can only guess that CO accelerated it a bit early, then hit the limit.

Assuming all cases before 08AUG08 were approved, no porting and 2,803 visa being available, EB2-C would reach a Cut Off Date of 01JUN09 by the end of FY2014.

So I think we're looking at anywhere in the 01MAR09 to 01JUN09 range.

That also assumes no extra FB visas are available. Clearly the dates could move a little further if there were extra visas from FB.

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Thanks Spec. What was also interesting was that June 2013 also happens to be the month when EB3C went ahead of EB2C and continued to do so while EB2C stood still... points more to EB2 not receiving the 7% Fall Down as you suggested rather than porting related demand. I think I also saw few posts where there were discussions about reverse porting (EB2C to EB3C)

Any idea when can we see the inventory/demand data?

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Originally Posted by helooo

Any idea when can we see the inventory/demand data?

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In October, the EB2I would move to Aug-28-2008.

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Originally Posted by fun4dddd

In October, the EB2I would move to Aug-28-2008.

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Are you serious?

Unfortunately but absolutely none heloo.

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Originally Posted by helooo

Hi Q,Gurus,
If the dates retrogress in next VB,then what scenario can move the dates forward at the end of first quarter?

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Originally Posted by helooo

Are you serious?

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Ofcourse he's not.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Ofcourse he's not.

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Sorry, I made a mistake about the exact date, it should be August-29-2008 not August-28-2008

A new thread with the poll (Do you favor HR 2131 over status quo) along with relevant information about the bill has been created at the link below. Please review the information and vote. This can give us an idea about our opinion in aggregate. The poll is at the top of the page and there are details in the posts on the same page.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-quo-(no-bill)

Thanks

PS: Since this is the most visited page, and many people might not have seen the discussion on the other page, I thought I will post the link to the poll here, so that more people can vote.

All approvals per trackitt seems to be for RDs in Jan 2012 and later.

Are there any approvals for Dec 2011 RDs with PDs before Apr 2008?

Hello Gurus
I have a concern arising out of my friend's case just yesterday.
His I-140 that was approved earlier this year was revoked as some officer 'reviewing or working' his labor application decided to have the supervisory recruitment (that means at every stage that officer has to be informed including video/recording of the interviews of the candidates that respond to the advt that the company does for labor again.

6 similar cases happened in my company (4 last week and 2 yesterday)

I have labor / I -140 approved in 2011 (PD 26NOV2008) and I filed my I-1485 in Jan 2012 and had received EAD in FEB 2012. I read somewhere that similar cases (to mine) have also had their I-140 revoked.

Another complexity is that my H1 is expiring end of this month and waiting for its extension based on approved I-140. Can the above situation affect my H1 approval process? I am very anxious to get some suggestions that can help me mitigate my risk.

FYI...My friend is going to file an appeal in some court as I know.

rka - sorry to hear this. unfortunately the officer is within his rights / discretion - so all the candidates and employers can and should do is cooperate and have it approved with concurrence from the agency.

However I do think H1 approval shouldn't be an issue because the candidates can say that 140 was approved and revoked and the revocation is under review. so there is some ground there for H1 to be approved without problems. But definitely need lawyer on this one.

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Originally Posted by rka_72

Hello Gurus
I have a concern arising out of my friend's case just yesterday.
His I-140 that was approved earlier this year was revoked as some officer 'reviewing or working' his labor application decided to have the supervisory recruitment (that means at every stage that officer has to be informed including video/recording of the interviews of the candidates that respond to the advt that the company does for labor again.

6 similar cases happened in my company (4 last week and 2 yesterday)

I have labor / I -140 approved in 2011 (PD 26NOV2008) and I filed my I-1485 in Jan 2012 and had received EAD in FEB 2012. I read somewhere that similar cases (to mine) have also had their I-140 revoked.

Another complexity is that my H1 is expiring end of this month and waiting for its extension based on approved I-140. Can the above situation affect my H1 approval process? I am very anxious to get some suggestions that can help me mitigate my risk.

FYI...My friend is going to file an appeal in some court as I know.

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Originally Posted by fun4dddd

Sorry, I made a mistake about the exact date, it should be August-29-2008 not August-28-2008

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I really don't know if you are joking or not... but either way you are wrong

Hi,

Why it was showing like this in current visa bulliten.


http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulleti...

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: September 2013

This month's visa bulletin: August 2013

Archived visa bulletins: July 2013 and before

It's fine now. Must have been a temporary browser cache issue

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

Do you think there is any chance they will advance the cutoff date for Sep 2013 by 15-30 days if they think visas will be wasted ? Has that ever happened before?...where they advanced the dates after publishing an original cutoff date for a month ?

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Originally Posted by willywonka

Do you think there is any chance they will advance the cutoff date for Sep 2013 by 15-30 days if they think visas will be wasted ? Has that ever happened before?...where they advanced the dates after publishing an original cutoff date for a month ?

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I dont think its ever happened in the last 5 yrs (I don't know about before that). That being said I don't see any visas getting wasted. There's a lot of demand especially with dates being moved to June. In fact there will be 3-5k ppl that are current but won't be approved.

I see GC approvals from all service centers from Jan 2008 to June 2008 PDs with RD varying from Jan 2012. But there are people (including me) with RD/PD less then many approved cases this week. No RFE in many cases. Is there any official information how the I485 are processed.

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Originally Posted by PLASTIC

I see GC approvals from all service centers from Jan 2008 to June 2008 PDs with RD varying from Jan 2012. But there are people (including me) with RD/PD less then many approved cases this week. No RFE in many cases. Is there any official information how the I485 are processed.

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NO pattern

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

rka - sorry to hear this. unfortunately the officer is within his rights / discretion - so all the candidates and employers can and should do is cooperate and have it approved with concurrence from the agency.

However I do think H1 approval shouldn't be an issue because the candidates can say that 140 was approved and revoked and the revocation is under review. so there is some ground there for H1 to be approved without problems. But definitely need lawyer on this one.

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DOL officer has a right to do a supervisory recruitment during the labor certification process. However picking up that case after it has been approved and I-140 has been approved is not right.

OP,

Is your company in some sort of trouble with USCIS/DOL ? That is the only reason I think they would go back and look at already approved cases.

gcq - I agree - it is not right. In fact this can be challenged in courts if the applicant wants to go to the courts and fight with USCIS. However, USCIS DOS are all government agencies and government retains the right to revoke all kinds of things. I-140 is a small thing - even GC as well as citizenship can be revoked. Unfortunate ... but true.

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Originally Posted by gcq

DOL officer has a right to do a supervisory recruitment during the labor certification process. However picking up that case after it has been approved and I-140 has been approved is not right.

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