EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vedu

It will be opposite the next month. EB3I will have no movement, and EB2I will move forward by a couple of months. We will be in this steady-state flow situation till the last quarter of the year.

---

Quote:

---

The dates will move for sure, but only during the last quarter of the year. EB3I will end up in a good spot by the year end. At the least, all 2005 cases will be cleared. The patience is key here!

---

Your comments seem to contradict each other. If you are saying EB3I 2005 will be cleared, then the RFE's have to start rolling out for <Apr2005 in the next month or 2 and those >Apr2005 folks at least by July 1 (like it happened 2 yrs ago). Otherwise, there is no hopes to clear 2005.

Looks like lifting per-country limit with a rule making is not possible according to below: (per Employment-Based Immigration System Modernization Rule)

3. Limits on Employment-Based Immigration by Country Comment. Several commenters suggested that the per-country limits on available immigrant visas disproportionately iscriminate against individuals from India, China, the Philippines, and Mexico. Some commenters stated that the system should be changed so that the number of available mmigrant visas would be proportionate to the percentage of individuals from India and China working as professionals in the United States on H–1B visas. Commenters noted that the per-country limits fail to account for high population countries with larger numbers of well-educated and high-skilled professionals given that smaller countries have the same percentage of visas available to them. One commenter suggested that the percountry limits are not compatible with the equitable concept of responding to applicants on a first-come, first-served basis. Several commenters suggested that DHS increase the number of available immigrant visas or remove the per-country limits completely, both to speed up processing times and to lessen the adverse impact on Indian and Chinese nationals. Another commenter stated that the per-country limits are illogical, unfair and unpredictable, causing individuals from India and China to suffer unfairly. One commenter stated that merit should be the metric for retaining high-skilled workers, not country of birth.

Response. DHS understands the frustration expressed by commenters who have begun the process to obtain lawful permanent residence, but who are subject to long waits efore their priority date becomes current as a result of the per-country visa limits applicable to their country of birth. However, DHS is unable to make immigrant visas available without regard to an individual’s country of birth as these are statutory requirements under the INA. See generally INA 202, 8 U.S.C. 1152. In particular, INA 202(a) (2), requires that, in any fiscal year, individuals born in any given country generally may be allocated no more than seven percent of the total number of immigrant visas. Thus, only Congress can change the percountry limitations in this statutory provision. DHS notes that this Administration supported lifting the per-country cap as a part of commonsense immigration reform legislation that has considered and passed the U.S. Senate in 2013.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by eb2visa

Looks like lifting per-country limit with a rule making is not possible according to below: (per Employment-Based Immigration System Modernization Rule)

3. Limits on Employment-Based Immigration by Country Comment. Several commenters suggested that the per-country limits on available immigrant visas disproportionately iscriminate against individuals from India, China, the Philippines, and Mexico. Some commenters stated that the system should be changed so that the number of available mmigrant visas would be proportionate to the percentage of individuals from India and China working as professionals in the United States on H–1B visas. Commenters noted that the per-country limits fail to account for high population countries with larger numbers of well-educated and high-skilled professionals given that smaller countries have the same percentage of visas available to them. One commenter suggested that the percountry limits are not compatible with the equitable concept of responding to applicants on a first-come, first-served basis. Several commenters suggested that DHS increase the number of available immigrant visas or remove the per-country limits completely, both to speed up processing times and to lessen the adverse impact on Indian and Chinese nationals. Another commenter stated that the per-country limits are illogical, unfair and unpredictable, causing individuals from India and China to suffer unfairly. One commenter stated that merit should be the metric for retaining high-skilled workers, not country of birth.

Response. DHS understands the frustration expressed by commenters who have begun the process to obtain lawful permanent residence, but who are subject to long waits efore their priority date becomes current as a result of the per-country visa limits applicable to their country of birth. However, DHS is unable to make immigrant visas available without regard to an individual’s country of birth as these are statutory requirements under the INA. See generally INA 202, 8 U.S.C. 1152. In particular, INA 202(a) (2), requires that, in any fiscal year, individuals born in any given country generally may be allocated no more than seven percent of the total number of immigrant visas. Thus, only Congress can change the percountry limitations in this statutory provision. DHS notes that this Administration supported lifting the per-country cap as a part of commonsense immigration reform legislation that has considered and passed the U.S. Senate in 2013.

---

No surprise there ..Changing per country limit requires Immigration law change.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Your comments seem to contradict each other. If you are saying EB3I 2005 will be cleared, then the RFE's have to start rolling out for <Apr2005 in the next month or 2 and those >Apr2005 folks at least by July 1 (like it happened 2 yrs ago). Otherwise, there is no hopes to clear 2005.

---

Do they need dates to be current to issue a RFE?

Anyone heard about the new I-485 Schedule J form that needs to be filled out in place of an EVL? Can you please confirm if that's for AC21 or for EVL as well. Has that process changed recently.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj

Hi
I reached out to my attorney on this and I was told that it is required to be filed only if USCIS asks for it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by smuggymba

Anyone heard about the new I-485 Schedule J form that needs to be filled out in place of an EVL? Can you please confirm if that's for AC21 or for EVL as well. Has that process changed recently.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj

---

There are rumors that Trump would sign an EO that would cut the refugee visas by 50k. Since most refugees need to apply for a greencard within 1 year of entry, this would imply that there would be 50k fewer greencards. Would this result in spillover to EB2 and EB3? Is that legally even possible?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Spectator

I'll publish them again at the end of Q1.

EDIT:- They've now been posted.

---

Hi Spec,

When do you think this section will be updated for 2016? any timeline?

Forum--Calculations and Predictions---FACTS AND DATA (Registration Required to Read)--DHS Data

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

Hi Spec,

When do you think this section will be updated for 2016? any timeline?

Forum--Calculations and Predictions---FACTS AND DATA (Registration Required to Read)--DHS Data

---

When DOS publish the figures - probably sometime in February.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by admercy

Hello,

Can someone shed some light on my situation mentioned below?

1. My company is moving the office (to a different state) which was used to file my PERM and I-140. This will be done in 3 months from now.
2. My PD is in 2012
3. My current H-1B expires in November 2017
4. I have a full-time offer from the client where I have been working since last 2 years. Client is ready to process H-1B transfer and GC. I have agreed to accept the offer sometime in summer (didn’t know the development mentioned in step 1 above).
5. Lets see the office is closed in March 2017. I assume my PERM and I-140 will be then invalid as PERM mentions the fixed worksite location.
6. Do you see any issue in my H1 transfer in say July 2017 with the client based on my approved 1-40 to get 3 yrs. extension?
7. Assuming the client does not process my GC immediately, will I be able to do further H-1B extensions in future with my old approved 1-140 and get 3 years H1 extension?

Really appreciate if someone could answer the above. Moderators, please move this to the appropriate forum once the above gets clarified.

Thank you.

---

admercy,

I was in similar situation 5 yrs back. Had to reapply perm & 140. The law says if the employer moved more than 30mi (don't remember the exactly - but it is < 50mi) from current location, gc process has to start from perm again; ofcourse the pd will be ported. With the way things are currently changing, I suggest you check with your attorney and follow their advice.

Not sure about your other questions.

-Ragx

Hi Gurus

I have a business visit to India coming up later in February. I have a pending I-485 and approved EAD along with AP (approved till 2018). I have also traveled multiple times out of the country on AP in the last couple of years.
Is it safe to travel to India later this month, in the context of current political situation and return back on AP? Please note that I do not have either H or L Visa.

Thanks for quickly

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ragx2012

admercy,

I was in similar situation 5 yrs back. Had to reapply perm & 140. The law says if the employer moved more than 30mi (don't remember the exactly - but it is < 50mi) from current location, gc process has to start from perm again; ofcourse the pd will be ported. With the way things are currently changing, I suggest you check with your attorney and follow their advice.

Not sure about your other questions.

-Ragx

---

What if the company moves after you applied your i-485 and in pending status?

Group ,

Glad to share that my GC was approved through consular processing on 30th December 2016. I had also planned to write a detailed blog for folks choosing consular processing because there exists so little information on it. Please feel free to share the blog with folks choosing consular processing.

Below is blog , just finished it today . Will update it with some more artifacts as soon as I have finished cleansing and securing the confidential information .

http://ebconsularprocessing.blogspot...-consular.html

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

What if the company moves after you applied your i-485 and in pending status?

---

Good question! Unfortunately, I have no idea what to do in this case. Technically, if you could move to a different job following certain process after filing I-485, you could do the same for this case as a worst case scenario. I'm sure there are better alternative which I'm not aware.

arnab, Congrats and these details are very much valuable. Will definitely help people in the future.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by arnab221

Group ,

Glad to share that my GC was approved through consular processing on 30th December 2016. I had also planned to write a detailed blog for folks choosing consular processing because there exists so little information on it. Please feel free to share the blog with folks choosing consular processing.

Below is blog , just finished it today . Will update it with some more artifacts as soon as I have finished cleansing and securing the confidential information .

http://ebconsularprocessing.blogspot...-consular.html

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by incredible

Hi
I reached out to my attorney on this and I was told that it is required to be filed only if USCIS asks for it.

---

My attorney (Ron Gotcher) advises the same: that nothing needs to be sent (including Form J) until an RFE is raised requesting that information.

They normally begin issuing RFEs a few months in anticipation of the PD becoming current. By the way, even after you respond to the RFE in a timely manner, it is very likely that dates will retrogress. Many a folk has had this horrible experience, not once, not twice, but thrice or more.

On other note, does anyone has numbers for EB3-I inventory in March 2005 split week wise? I remember I saw this information somewhere on this blog and the OP said most of the ~2000 numbers are concentrated in last week of March. If someone has this information it will give us some guidance into how many months we will be stuck in March 2005.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Madhu7

On other note, does anyone has numbers for EB3-I inventory in March 2005 split week wise? I remember I saw this information somewhere on this blog and the OP said most of the ~2000 numbers are concentrated in last week of March. If someone has this information it will give us some guidance into how many months we will be stuck in March 2005.

---

I think what you recall is this post. I have reproduced the salient part below:

Quote:

---

As part of the Chinese EB3 lawsuit, CO released the IVAMS figures for EB3 as of July 19, 2010. That showed that EB3-I applications are not distributed evenly for March 2005 - the majority are in the last week.

Mar 1 to Mar 7 ------- 7.8% = FAD of 08MAR05
Mar 8 to Mar 14 ----- 10.7% = FAD of 15MAR05
Mar 15 to Mar 21 ---- 14.2% = FAD of 22MAR05
Mar 22 to Mar 31 ---- 67.3% = FAD of 01APR05

The % are likely to have remained similar over time.

The reason is almost certainly due to the RIR / PERM changeover for labor certification.

---

Thanks Spec. So there are about 1300-1400 after 22nd March based on latest inventory figure. Looks like EB3-I will remain in March 2005 till June at least.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by vedu

It will be opposite the next month. EB3I will have no movement, and EB2I will move forward by a couple of months. We will be in this steady-state flow situation till the last quarter of the year.

---

So looks like my prediction did come through in the recent visa bulletin. Things are humming along nicely as expected!!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by incredible

Hi Gurus

I have a business visit to India coming up later in February. I have a pending I-485 and approved EAD along with AP (approved till 2018). I have also traveled multiple times out of the country on AP in the last couple of years.
Is it safe to travel to India later this month, in the context of current political situation and return back on AP? Please note that I do not have either H or L Visa.

Thanks for quickly

---

Hi Incredible,
I just got back from India recently. While this whole mess is flip flopping, be prepared to answer extra questions even though right now that issue is on hold. I landed 28th with an AP at Newark NJ in the middle of all that sh!t storm and had to answer a lot more questions then I ever did for all my prior trips put together. The stories from other folks are similar even now.

Flew into Newark this morning. wife (secondary) and I (primary) are on EAD/AP, children are US citizens. First officer:
Q1 - How long were you out of US?
Q2 - What was the purpose of your trip?

Then went to standard secondary checking. Second officer:
Q1 - How long was your trip for?
Q2 - What are you adjusting status based on?

Stamped paperwork and we walked out. That was it for us.

Flew into JFK today. No ruder than normal. Standard boilerplate questions - where are you coming from, what do you do, etc.

"no ruder than normal" :-)

There is a certain amount of rudeness that is just baked into the system now. Just part of normal expectations.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by abcx13

Flew into JFK today. No ruder than normal. Standard boilerplate questions - where are you coming from, what do you do, etc.

---