My vote is for #2.
BTW - we can now definitely put to rest any hope that there might be quarterly spillover. Now its a wait until June/July 2013 at least to get any appreciate forward movement in EB2I PD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
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My vote is for #2.
BTW - we can now definitely put to rest any hope that there might be quarterly spillover. Now its a wait until June/July 2013 at least to get any appreciate forward movement in EB2I PD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Given the demand densities of EB2I and EB2C, the relatively low amount of spillover expected and high amount of porting in EB2I; I think EB2I and EB2C have permanently decoupled. EB2C PD > EB2I PD for the foreseeable future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
Didn't everyone including DOS say there will be cutoff date for China for EB-5 Category and today we saw EB-5 as C.
Any thoughts?
All Form Types Performance Data (Fiscal Year 2012, 4th Qtr) Data as of September 30, 2012 is out
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...y2012_qtr4.pdf
redsox2009,Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
Yes, but later in the FY.
This is what the December VB said:
Quote:
It appears likely that a cut-off date will need to be established for the China Employment Fifth preference category at some point during second half of fiscal year 2013.
Such action would be delayed as long as possible, since while number use may be excessive over a 1 to 5 month period, it could average out to an acceptable level over a longer (e.g., 4 to 9 month) period.
This would be the first time a cut-off date has been established in this category, which is why readers are being provided with the maximum amount of advance notice regarding the possibility.
I think that can happen IFF (if and only if) overall EB5 is oversubscribed (not sure yet) & China is oversubscribed (probably yes). I haven't yet looked at EB5 data. But my hunch is that - that is not going to happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I believe it is more likely to happen than not. At the very least it will be a close run thing.
Last year, EB5 used 7,641 visa and the I-526 applications are now much higher.
Of those, China used 6,124 visas.
If EB5 looks like it will breach the allocation limit in FY2013, China MUST retrogress, since their initial allocation is ZERO (due to the provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act).
The only question is, if overall, how close EB5 gets to the 9,940 limit.
Last FY, EB5 Receipts were more than 150% higher than the previous FY and Approvals were more than 200% higher than the previous FY. There is also a huge backlog (c. 5k) of I-526 cases.
Concurrent Filing is not allowed for EB5 - processing for Immigrant Status can only begin when the I-526 is approved. Last FY, 87.4% of EB5 cases were Consular Processed.
CO has already said that EB5 demand is currently running at 1k / month.
Here are the trends:Attachment 333
EB3-C has overcome EB3-P at speed faster than CO forecast even though inventory density is about the same. CP percentage drop to blame?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
This graph shows the total I-140 and I-485 receipts and completions over the last 24 months. Based on the graphs the I-140 and I-485 filings are down, but the I-140 completions are high.
any analysis on this?
Attachment 332
One guess could be that EB2-WW retrogression decoupled I-485/I-140 filings that were concurrent before. Since they are current again, this should even out. Not clear what WW share of the graph is, but hopefully it indicates only moderate build-up of I-485 WW backlog and that it'll dissipate later, and the mystery of WW inconsistency between PERM and I-485 demands will resolve itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Rather belated thanks for posting this.
IF all 144,951 EB visas available in FY2012 were issued, then the Consular Processed portion would be 13.9%.
That compares to an actual of 10.8% in FY2011.
Most of that increase can be attributed to EB5, where 87.4% are CP.
Not sure if this has been discussed already - Pending inventory is published with a date of Oct 2012.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Few points that I observed:
1. For EB2I Difference between Latest Demand Data (Dec 2012) and Inventory (Oct 2012) is just 3000. Which I think is good sign since many people were worried that there could be lot of people who will appear in Inventory but not the Demand data.
2. There are 257 numbers for May 2010 - Not sure how that is possible since PD never went there. The best ever PD is 1st May 2010 so there should not be any applications for May 2010. (Also there is a reduction in the April 2010 - not sure how that is possible either).
3. I compared the inventory of Oct 2011 to Oct 2012. The difference in EB3I numbers is 4404. If we remove the regular 2800 allocation, it appears that the net reduction is about 1600. These are obviously porters. However what i do not understand is why are we over estimating the porting to be 5K and over? Am i missing something?
skpanda,Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Some thoughts to consider.
I think it is very difficult to estimate porting.
The change in Inventory numbers is only the NET change and doesn't necessarily reflect the GROSS numbers.
Your calculation assumes that the Inventory is static and includes all cases that USCIS has.
It was quite noticeable with EB3-ROW that new cases were being added as they moved through PD2006.
The reduction of 1.6k can equally be :
0 additions minus 1.6k porting cases or
3.4k additions minus 5.0k porting cases
In each case, the net reduction is 1.6k. It is not possible to tell if either are true.
A slightly different example.
In FY2011, the EB3-I Demand Data reduced by 6.0k. EB3-I actually received 4.0k so the difference was 2.0k. In the PDs where approvals could be made, the demand only lowered by 3.6k, so there were at least 0.4k cases approved additional to the initial demand.
Looking at EB2-I, the demand reduced by 17.9k. EB2-I actually received 24.0k so the difference was 6.1k. The Cut Off Dates were static for 8 months in FY2011. Certainly some of the extra approvals are probably due to new cases submitted late in FY2011 and approved, but they would have to have been adjudicated very quickly.
It is a hard nut to crack.
Looks like if I-140 receipts are under 5K, then we can see aggresive date movement for EB-2 in second half.
Thanks Spec... makes sense!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Jan2013 Demand Data Updated
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Interesting numbers for 2007 & 2008 PDs there is quite a difference between DD(Jan2013) and USCIS Inventory(OCT 2012).
PD-------Jan 2103DD----Oct2012 USCIS INV-------Difference
2007---------5400-------------5142---------------------+258
2008--------16325-----------15897---------------------+428
Numbers are being added each month even though PDs with those dates are not current from June 2012. Looks like USCIS is processing porting cases filed after June2012 even though those PDs are not current so once I-140 is approved and USCIS is notified about Interfiling, if there is a 485 attached already then it is processed and added to EB2 DD irrespective of PD being current or not. I think this is what is going on at present with porting cases(ported after June2012) whose PDs are not current. If this is the case then by the time CO starts applying SO all porting cases should show up in DD.
its almost certain, by Oct 2013, EB2 moves to Jun 1,2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
this year CTS is not filing for GC aggressively , last year it filed 2000 perms/ this year sofor 100+
I think that is just continued pre-adjudication of the EB2 cases that were submitted when the dates were last Current.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
Otherwise, you would also expect to see substantial movement of the 2004 - 2006 figures as well. They are static (well movement of 50).
That might be true as people with EB3I PDs from Sept2007 have never filed a 485 in EB3. We will know more with future Inventory,DD reports if there is a substantial increase in numbers for PDs prior to Aug2007 then we will know if USCIS is processing porting cases or not for PDs which are not current.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Not sure how you arrived at that conclusion. It looks we need 9.5k to clear 2007 and possibly more for additional porting. 2008 demand density appears to be over 1.5k per month. To get to June end we would need atleast an addln 9k visas. That appears to be a long shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
I'm not saying you are wrong but just curious about your assumptions.
Looking at the latest DD and few things confuse me. May be the gurus can shed some light.
1. how is it that the number of 2007 and 2008 EB2 I numbers are greater than the ones in the inventory. Does this mean that USCIS is so inefficient that they have not yet added all applications to their inventory. that really is bad as they had dates U for 4 months.
2. For Eb2 I - If you look at the inventory there are 219 apps between sept 1 2004 and Jan 1 2005. So the demand before sept 1 2004 looks to be around 50. Is that right ? if thats correct date should move atleast by some months.
Am I saying anything thats incorrect
Suggestions inline.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
Q/Spec,
Why porting is in so much limelight that it has stalled the forward movement of EB2 I? Porting is happening from the past 3-4 yrs and you had earlier mentioned it's range is in 5-6K per yr.
Would also appreciate if you can share your thoughts on latest DD.
Thanks for your reply. If it should be 0 before sept 2004 then for ROW it should be 0 since its current right? why are they showing demand. does that mean they are going to have a cutoff? also demand will not be 0 right - if an interlinking for pre sept 2004 app is done on say nov 20th then I think it takes about 1-2 months for USCIS to close the case. So that demand will be reflected right?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
yank,Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
I think that is because, with much lower Spillover expected, Porting numbers potentially represent a much higher % of the likely available visas. They therefore have a much greater potential impact on Cut Off Date movement for the FY. In addition, there doesn't appear to be any QSP this year.
The last time that happened (FY2011), EB2-I Cut Off Dates did not move in the first 8 months of the FY
With no figures ever published, it is impossible to say whether the number is decreasing, fairly static or increasing relative to past years.
I think I have already commented on the DD.
sbhagwat2000,Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
For CP cases, the visas are allocated based on requests from Consulates before the interview takes place.
Countries other than China an India only show a total demand of 175 visas, which is entirely consistent with CP cases awaiting interview.
As you said, you need 18K visas to achieve this date,with present trend you may get 8K spillover from EB1+2k regular EB2I (assume 800 were already used this year)Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
EB2 ROW +EB4 spillover=5k. So overall you may get close to 15k visas to EB2I, which pushes dates somewhere between Mar to Jun 1,2008.
The demand data shows why EB3-P is stuck. And why EB3-C is close to catching up with ROW. Frankly they should be cobbled together. Not sure why they haven't moved the EB3-ROW/C to 2008.
justvisiting,Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
I've been thinking about when CO might move the EB3 dates as well.
Compared to EB2-IC, I think it is a much more difficult task.
EB2-IC had 98-99% AOS cases, so the effect of CP cases was negligible. That's not the case with EB3. In FY2011, ROW had around 20% CP and China had a whopping, 51%.
Whereas it might take 3-6 months for new I-485 cases to be ready to adjudicate, a CP case can be approved in 1-2 months. Ron Gotcher says that the interview in a CP case normally takes place in the month following the PD becoming Current.
If CO moves the dates forward rapidly, then a large number of late PDs with CP will be approved at the expense of earlier AOS PDs.
So maybe he has to move the dates fairly cautiously over a few months initially, just enough to ensure that the full FY allocation is used and allowing sufficient time for the AOS cases to be adjudicated. He could then make a very large movement (to get a good future Inventory) in September, before retrogressing in October.
It appears that the present backlog for China, Mexico and ROW will be exhausted in about May/June/July, so he will have to think about moving the dates. I don't think he can leave it any later than about March/April at the latest, if he wants AOS cases ready for approval beyond July. It could well be (and need to be) somewhat earlier than that.
The next few Demand Data and VB will answer the question.
So could you please tell when I could expect to file my I-485? EB3 ROW PD July 15 2007. Is April 2013 a realistic date? I missed the July boat.
Thanks!
Caramail,Quote:
Originally Posted by Caramail
Welcome to the forum.
I don't pretend to have a good handle on how EB3-ROW will move, but I would be disappointed if your PD had not become Current by the April VB.
Thank you!!! I feel like I am really close now after waiting for so long.
Caramail,Quote:
Originally Posted by Caramail
I'm sure.
Good luck!
If it follows the same pattern as EB2 China and India, then there are quite a few people with May 2007 onwards PDs who were unable to apply for I-485 in July 2007 because the Labor Certification was not received in time.
Let the forum know when you have finally submitted your I-485.
Thanks and I will.
Some good analysis... I am fairly new to this whole analysis... I have an EB2-I PD of Sept 12, 2007. Any insight into when I can expect it to be current?
Aug 2013 at the latestQuote:
Originally Posted by mayde78
Spec,
I was looking at EB2 I approvals on trackitt and there seems to be a marked decrease in november and december as compared with october. October as you pointed out had 40 approvals. Nov had 10 and december is also trending the same.
Based on that can we assume that the initial bump that was caused because of the dates being U is now over and what we are seeing now is the regular demand we would see? Going forward if we see the same trends can we hope for some movement starting from the 3rd quarter.
It certainly appears that most of the pre September 2004 cases that built up when EB2-I was Unavailable have now been cleared.Quote:
Originally Posted by sbhagwat2000
I need a little longer to judge what the ongoing monthly rate is. Since the dates are not moving, it could be around the 250 available each month.
The potential problem is that, when the COD is able to move forward, there will be large numbers of Sept-Dec 2004, 2005 and 2006 porting cases that have built up in the meantime.
By the time the dates move, about a year's worth of these later PD porting cases will have built up, amounting to several thousand cases in all probability.
That is going to limit the forward movement, unless CO is very confident there are sufficient numbers available to EB2-I.
Given what happened last year (e.g. EB1 was very heavy late on), I don't see how he can be that confident when he initially moves the dates.
Since USCIS are not providing any information on potential porting numbers to DOS, I think CO will want to "test the waters" to see the numbers for himself.
Spec,
I think that the demand could be lower than the 250 but the dates are no moving cause USCIS has approved more applications than the quarterly qouta cause of the dates being U and the flood of apps in Oct. Now I guess in the next quarter also they will not move the dates so that they remain within the qouta for 6 months. I think though they will have to move the dates at some point after April so as to as you say "test the waters" otherwise they will be accumulating demand for 2005 onwards. I think they will start moving the dates by 1-2 months post april for that reason.