Delay in VB makes me beleive that there might be some movement! Had CO already decided not to move any dates then he might ve released it. I am pretty sure there is a final number crunching going on to make it as accurate as possible. Do any of you feel this way?
But what I am curious is that it was discussed that he would have decided it by 5 or 6th only and if not also unless the service centers are working on weekend (last weekend TSC worked but literally didn't work on Monday which was more like compensation) what is he planning to achieve on the weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by iblveicanget
FWIW, TSC is working today. Approvals already showing up on trackitt.Quote:
Originally Posted by wolverine82
Yes. as expected, at the end of the day about 23( average) primary approvals+ dependents will be there.Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
All TSC applicants wait for magic text and make sure you post here once you get it.
He would be waiting for final spillover number to be given to him by USCIS for final bulletin that is the contingency. Not that it should make much difference from his pre set date in mind, but for numerical representation of the same in bulletin it is required.Quote:
Originally Posted by wolverine82
Guys, when you say TSC is working today, do you mean that the adjudicating officers are literally working on a Saturday ?
Or could it be that cases that are assigned a visa number and approved are placed on an automated FIFO queue from where cases are picked for card production...and the CPOs we are seeing on Saturdays can possibly be cases that were approved on Fridays ? Just wondering...
They are "literally" working on saturday, thats why they don't work on modayQuote:
Originally Posted by willywonka
Looks like both guys who got their PD approved with May and June 2008 EB2I were false alarms. one basically didn't check his PD as he had an old Aug 2006 PD and for the other person with June PD the USCIS was showing his PD as sep 2007 hence it was approved(uscis error) ,so looks like these both were not anomaly cases to begin with.
wolverine,Quote:
Originally Posted by wolverine82
Thanks for the update.
The June 2008 PD person now has to make sure USCIS reinstate everything the way it was before the erroneous approval. I wouldn't want to be in their shoes.
Absolutely Spec agree with you I wouldn't want to be in his shoes..I was checking his posts in trackitt and he is literally at his wit's end as to what to do but i think some folks have asked him to first talk to lawyer and also take infopass and let USCIS know so that they can resolve it for him..Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I had my own selfish reasons to track them as I am Apr 4 2008 PD and don't know if my date(based on predictions and delay in release of VB chances are really bleak) will be current as I missed filing the I-485 last time.
wolverine,Quote:
Originally Posted by wolverine82
Whatever your motives, I'd still like to thank you for so diligently following the cases. I had missed the Trackitt comment where N170091 had given the news.
I did notice they had put the approval in the Trackitt I-485 tracker last night and that it had been put back to pending this morning.
Best of luck for your PD becoming Current.
The latest update on August approvals as I see them. Not a very productive Saturday for TSC judging by the updates to date.
A little summary of where the August approvals are currently (which will immediately out of date). It's, as usual, based on primary applicants who have updated the Trackitt I-485 tracker with the approval.
Total to date - 196
August ----- 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 - 10
Number ---- 19 - 25 - 11 -- 0 - 27 - 28 - 38 - 17 - 25 -- 6
Service Center
Nebraska - 120 -- 61.22%
Texas ----- 75 -- 38.27%
California - 1 --- 0.51%
Vermont ---- 0 --- 0.00%
Total ---- 196 - 100.00%
Priority Date
PD ---- EB2 -- EB3 -- Total
2003 ---- 0 ---- 0 ------ 0
2004 --- 13 ---- 2 ----- 15
2005 --- 24 ---- 5 ----- 29
2006 --- 31 ---- 2 ----- 33
2007 -- 119 ---- 0 ---- 119
Total - 187 ---- 9 ---- 196
Pre 2007 PD - 77 -- 39.29%
2007 PD ---- 119 -- 60.71%
Total ------ 196 - 100.00%
Prior to August, there were 129 approvals in FY2013.
Spec,
Will less # of approvals benefit in date movement i.e. forward or at this point it doesn't really matter as CO has already decided the date..
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
What is your latest and closest estimate of percentage of primary applicants on trackitt, matt used 6% and I recall you mentioning something like 7%.
I am guessing as the information becomes more prevalent among Indians, that percentage could be slightly on the higher end.
moreover what is the estimate of inter filers based on approvals and trackitt info we have?
Based on Spec mentioned earlier, the 7% is not just primary applicants .. it includes dependents.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Trackitt doesn't even come close to mirroring the real world for primary/dependent ratios.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
Therefore I do not count them in Trackitt and only use primary applicant approvals. I account for dependents when I convert Trackitt primary numbers to "real numbers".
Sorry spec, i didnt mean ratio of primary/dependent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I wanted to know if 6% of total primary applicants are there on trackitt ( best known estimate), for which I think Viz answered already that it is 6%.
I think converting Trackitt numbers to "real" numbers is as much an art as it is science. Everyone needs to use their own approach that they feel comfortable with.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
I use different % for 2007 PD, 2008 PD (when they start) and for Pre 2007 PD approvals.
Currently, I see 200 EB2-I primary approvals in August.
To me, that converts to about 3.0k approvals in the "real" world. Of those, I have 1.5k with a pre 2007 PD and 1.5k with a 2007 PD.
There is still a mammoth backlog of cases on Trackitt still to be approved that are Current in August.
Quite apart from cases originally submitted earlier, there are over 500 cases submitted since October 2011 with a 2007 PD that remain unapproved.
In addition, more than 250 cases with PDs of 2003 - 2006 with a confirmed I-140 approval under EB2 remain pending. Many of the approvals to date with earlier PD have come from outside that list, so in reality it is probably much larger.
Even allowing for the fact that a sizable % of those Trackitt cases will never be updated with an approval, that is still a large number of cases still to be adjudicated.
Edit:- I have revisited the % I am using for PD2007 cases and amended it. The numbers above have changed as a result. PD 2007 cases seem to have a much higher Trackitt % than any other year.
Assuming 6% is the conversion ratio, so far 3266 total approvals are there which is not bad and hopefully almost everyone will get approval by sept 2nd week.
I hope that monday onwards the approvals will be at the maximum pace.
Congressional inquiries have become the norm rather than exception this time around.
probably about 25% of the current demand is approved so far, so probabaly by the 2 nd week the entire demand can be processed.
I wonder if they will plan to increase the pace of approvals if the date movement adds something like 5K or so.
IMO the dates might move at best to March 1st 2013 as I originally said
where are you getting these numbers from? are you suggesting that they will finish the remaining 75% of demand in week 2 after doing 25% of demand in week 1? also moving from Jan 1 to Mar 1 will add about 3000 cases.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
They will run out of visas before running out of time.
" are you suggesting that they will finish the remaining 75% of demand in week 2 after doing 25% of demand in week 1?"
sorry, I meant sept 2nd week, and just typed 2nd week only in error.
"also moving from Jan 1 to Mar 1 will add about 3000 cases."
that's true
I did not imply moving jan1st to mar 2st is going to create 5k demand,
what I actually meant is 3k demand might be reasonable to add by moving from jan 1st to mar 1st,
rather than moving further than that where demand of more than 5K might lead to difficulty in processing assuming the pace of approvals will not change dramatically.
Spec/Q et al.
Given the percentage approval of the interfile cases (the hidden demand), do you think any movement beyond Feb 08 is not possible?
I think there is a concentrated effort to clean up the porting cases as much as possible. Hence I think all the porting demand is being brought up to the surface. Do you agree?
If yes, are these numbers within the forecasted demand for porting?
Regards
Nat
Thanks a lot for everyone...and Best of luck to rest of the people waiting for GC
kpt112107,Quote:
Originally Posted by kpt112107
Congratulations!!
Nat,Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
At this stage it is probably best just to wait for the VB to be published.
The high level of "upgrade" cases certainly gives me cause for concern re reaching my most optimistic date.
Congratulations KPT!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by kpt112107
Congratulations KPTQuote:
Originally Posted by kpt112107
Congrats KPT!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by kpt112107
I see approvals added today from Texas service center.. May be TSC is working today.. I heard someone saying they take Monday off as they worked Saturday
Congratulations KPT.
Just out of my curiosity. I know we already have a few approvals here, but how many of us are waiting?. I know about Indiani and myself.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
Waiting.....:confused:
I'm waiting .Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
I'm waiting too. July 2007 PD, TSC, EB2I, Direct, June 14 Mass RFE replied on July 8 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
Thank you, Keep posting.
Last week Indiani mentioned about contacting legislators. What are the messages you are getting from legislator's office. Any SR replies etc?
I expect to see many more approvals this week.
I am waiting too...Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
I was wondering the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by kumar19
No reply from congressional inquiry yet, it appears that there are too many of these and they are taking them seriously anymore. people who contacted initially got response in a day, now almost a week and generic reply.Quote:
Originally Posted by MATT2012
As usual, the accountability is lacking but the pace of approvals are not too bad,
Only thing that could concern me is a rapid movement in September as I doubt they can process that many additional applications
Is less demand from EB2-ROW causing CO think twice before setting cut off date for Sep 2013 bulletin to use all the remaining spill over.