EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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10-05-2011, 03:26 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

So now its confirmed, the FB model is in motion - increase PD by 3 months each in every month of the first quarter and then retrogress in the second quarter. That should give USCIS enough time to process everything and have a healthy inventory going into the spillover season. This also ensures that USCIS is not flooded all of a sudden.

Next demand data will be interesting to watch. I am essentially looking for gurus to come to a PERM-to-485 multiplier so that we can get a good fix on the hidden demand beyond the current PD.

imdeng,

Unfortunately, it will take several months for the numbers to appear in either the Demand Data or a USCIS Inventory.

The Inventory is better, since it slices the data monthly and only needs an I-485 with an underlying I-140 approved.

The Inventory after next is probably the best bet.

The Demand Data requires the I-485 to be documentarily qualified, meaning it is pre-adjudicated - that takes considerable time and continuous approvals make it very dynamic.
10-05-2011, 03:29 PM
pch053

USCIS says the same thing about EB2 movement for Nov bulletin too:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One thing he mentioned is "significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated"; not sure, whether this implies that the dates will move well into 2008! Also, there is a note that the movements might not be on a monthly basis. Maybe, the indication is that visa date movements might be a bit intermittent in the coming months.
10-05-2011, 03:31 PM
soggadu

yes big T, beiber, JJ and all people of the forum........ i am also current... pehli baar current huaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.............. it's like going on my first date...no words to describe....i wish everybody gets current (so that everybody feel so confused as me :-) ).... abb mein kya karoon ( what do i do now)....also thanks to my friend prabha who has given me this news...he is one of the anonymous readers...

Jai ho to everyone...ROCK ONNNNNNNN....

Big N and others....dont worry... aap khatar mein ho ( you are in the line) and next number is yours... i am very sure it is going to go till 2008 September this time... the trend has started... i wish u all (including myself) the very best to come....
10-05-2011, 03:36 PM
10102007

Thank you all. Feels a bit numb. Feels a bit strange too. The news is yet to sink in.

Nishanth buddy, will pray that you and other folks cross the line soon.

One again, THANK YOU all.
10-05-2011, 03:36 PM
kd2008

A request to Spec

Spec,

Could please analyze PW data from Q3 2011?

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

I didn't see it in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-Data-Analysis

Thanks a bunch!
10-05-2011, 03:39 PM
mygctracker

Nishant Guru, Please say atleast Feb 1,2008 for Dec VB. Mine is 01/16/2008.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Friends, I was out on lunch, following on iPhone in car. I came back, sat just for 5 minutes dizzy.

yes, I am 11/8/2007. I need two more weeks of movement. Any next movement whenever it happens will absorb me.

My heartfelt best wishes for all who got current.

My current take, just based on gut feeling is that next VB will be a mini version of this one, there will be two months movement to Jan 1st 2008.

rdsingh, you are the star of the day. God bless you.

Legislative action is the permanent fix to this mess. As a EB community, we can't forget the mess our EB3 brothers are in still, as well as EB2 for later on years can't still be predicted with total certainty.

dude have the big beer mug now, the one which is in your avatar on IV. Or have a physics marathon :) congrats.

gcseeker, if you are in Los Angeles, would be glad to have drinks and observe a minute of silence for both of us :)

Kanmani, thanks for remembering me. I ride on the good wishes of people, and this is what helps me. Thank you again.

Yes, I don't think quarterly SO etc model. And even if they do quarterly SO, who says they cant combine and get the best of both. Date movement is solely to make inventory, why club it with the confines of quarterly SO.
10-05-2011, 03:41 PM
gc0907

ok the link is live here as well: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html
10-05-2011, 03:42 PM
gcseeker

10102007

Congrats to you buddy and I hope you get your EAD/AP soon .Hopefully it will enable you to visit your folks and beloved dog often.

Enjoy the day.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10102007

Thank you all. Feels a bit numb. Feels a bit strange too. The news is yet to sink in.

Nishanth buddy, will pray that you and other folks cross the line soon.

One again, THANK YOU all.
10-05-2011, 03:43 PM
tanu_75

Congratulations to all who became current! It's been a long time coming for you folks. Hopefully we'll see this move into Jan 2008. I thought we'll have moved to here by the end of last year but I think USCIS feels more comfortable taking in batches of around 5-10k apps. So that's approximately movement of 4-5 months everytime they decide, which could be every 2-3 months. But one thing's clear, they are running out of applications and need to refill their inventory.
10-05-2011, 03:43 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10102007

Thank you all. Feels a bit numb. Feels a bit strange too. The news is yet to sink in.

Nishanth buddy, will pray that you and other folks cross the line soon.

One again, THANK YOU all.

Thank you friend. You are most welcome, your thoughts are well appreciated.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mygctracker

Nishant Guru, Please say atleast Feb 1,2008 for Dec VB. Mine is 01/16/2008.

:) I know how you feel. You are right on the edge.

I just think that 2008 might be a psychological barrier maybe for USCIS/DOS, and hopefully they break it soon.

That is why I really don't like to say specific gut feeling dates, there is always someone on the right side of it :)

All the best.
10-05-2011, 03:44 PM
pdmay2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdsingh79

Nov VB is out. EB2IC Nov01 2007

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

And I am current!!!

Congrats to every one who are current.

This gives lot of hope for all of us waiting in the queue.
10-05-2011, 03:45 PM
srimurthy

Congrats to all who became current. soggadu you changes your pic on the right day.
Also the PDF and the actual link for VB is all updated and available.
And somebody pointed out earlier in the day that it happened before that the DD info and VB info was out on same day earlier and can happen today too..

I am recalling the MTWTF.. statement...
10-05-2011, 03:46 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc0907

ok the link is live here as well: http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_1360.html

You beat rdsingh in grabbing this first :D
10-05-2011, 03:46 PM
dreamer

Congratulations for all the folks down here who will be current with this Nov Bulletin....
10-05-2011, 03:49 PM
superdesi2100

Visa bulletin appears on USCIS website in HTML format - at least when I checked 5 mins ago.

Congratulations to all those who are current. Nishantbhai - you should now expect to see light at the end of this long tunnel pretty soon.
10-05-2011, 03:49 PM
gc0907

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

You beat rdsingh in grabbing this first :D

Yeah...bcoz I am current :). Thanks to you and other gurus here helping out ease some tension.
Good luck to you bcoz looks like your karma wants you to serve here a bit longer.
10-05-2011, 03:52 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

Congrats to all who became current. soggadu you changes your pic on the right day.
Also the PDF and the actual link for VB is all updated and available.
And somebody pointed out earlier in the day that it happened before that the DD info and VB info was out on same day earlier and can happen today too..

I am recalling the MTWTF.. statement...

yes murty garu... i didnt know i wud get this news when i changed the avatar....
10-05-2011, 03:54 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by superdesi2100

Visa bulletin appears on USCIS website in HTML format - at least when I checked 5 mins ago.

Congratulations to all those who are current. Nishantbhai - you should now expect to see light at the end of this long tunnel pretty soon.

superdesi2100, thanks for thinking of me. I know, as I said earlier sometimes, I am been running around, carrying a baggage of all sorts of papers, proofs, identity, salary, tax returns, certificates, marksheets, i-20, i-94, and what have you. I want to lie down peacefully and sleep one day when I get there, and not have to think of all this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc0907

Yeah...bcoz I am current :). Thanks to you and other gurus here helping out ease some tension.
Good luck to you bcoz looks like your karma wants you to serve here a bit longer.

Most of us here do this as a passion, not just for selfish interest. Although have to say, once really get GC, might go to Alaska and meditate with Polar Bears for a week.
10-05-2011, 03:55 PM
superdesi2100

Re - reduction in the demand data from October to November - Ron Gotcher states - "Any reduction in numbers would have to come from the quota then in use (i.e., FY 2011)"

http://www.immigration-information.c...-2011-a-15460/
10-05-2011, 04:00 PM
kpt112107

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5572.html

EB2 - Nov 1st 2007
10-05-2011, 04:01 PM
iamdeb

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

yes murty garu... i didnt know i wud get this news when i changed the avatar....

Congrats Soggadu!! I am sure you must be dancing like your icon now.
Congrats to guru T and all others who became Current.
T really appreciate all your analysis in this forum.
Cheers to Q,V,T,S,N and all other experts here.
You guys rock!
10-05-2011, 04:03 PM
krishnav

Gurus,

For someone with Sept 13 2007 PD, how long do you expect it to take to get my EAD and then GC. I ask becasue of the statements like these.

"The November Employment-based Second preference cut-off date for applicants from China and India is the most favorable since August 2007. This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

If at all they retrogress after some forward movement, what kind of retrogressed dates can we expect? I am guesssing not less than July 2007 as we are already seeing cases from July 2007 being cleared??
Sorry if its a dumb question.
10-05-2011, 04:05 PM
Eb2_Dec07

Congratulations to Nishant and all others who are current

Dear Friends ,

I'm at work and I'm almost tearful with joy for the movement and see you all become current. I'm dec 4 07 about a month away myself and hopefully will be current soon.

Wishing all of you a very happy green life ahead .

Just a note : Dont forget the people that have helped you all in your life in this journey. Family, kids , spouse anyone ....
10-05-2011, 04:11 PM
nishant2200

Very well said. I am 11/8/2007 , hence not current, but yes, can see light at the end of the tunnel.

I was in a bit of a state of daze myself once I saw the Nov 1st 2007.

Basically, for you and me, it is any VB now, it's a very strange state to be in. I and gcseeker were earlier talking about restless nights this week, now the week has been extended to n number of months.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07

Dear Friends ,

I'm at work and I'm almost tearful with joy for the movement and see you all become current. I'm dec 4 07 about a month away myself and hopefully will be current soon.

Wishing all of you a very happy green life ahead .

Just a note : Dont forget the people that have helped you all in your life in this journey. Family, kids , spouse anyone ....
10-05-2011, 04:14 PM
sreddy

This is great. Congrats to all those who became current. I still have time (5th Aug 2008).

So how long are they will keep it moving is still a million dollar question i guess. One thing is clear. Instead of opening flood gates like in 2007, I think they are following new method by moving 2-3 months each bulletin until their estimated numbers match for this year.
10-05-2011, 04:20 PM
bhayzone

Life is such a roller coaster .. such a roller coaster !!!!

Just this morning, on this very thread, I was ranting about fate and how tipsy-turvy it has been for me in the last couple of weeks. And then I read the Nov bulletin ... I was current !!! (PD 10/10/2007) ... I din't know how to react .... I was happy .. very very happy, but yet still uncertain of what lies ahead ... h1b transfer in progress .. can I apply for 485, will by company apply for my 485, will I get an RFE, how much is it going to cost me .. and the list is endless. I guess I'll get my answers soon ... and hopefully they will be good !!! But for everyone who is going through a rough patch, just remember that the end is just around the corner.

Congrats to everyone who got current ... prayers for everyone waiting ... and tonnes of thanks to everyone on this forum !!!!
10-05-2011, 04:22 PM
krishnav

Hi Nishant,

I was very happy to see my date become current but felt sad when I realized that you missed it my a week or 2.
You have been very helpful through out with your answers and encouraging replies. I wish and pray that you will be current next month.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Very well said. I am 11/8/2007 , hence not current, but yes, can see light at the end of the tunnel.

I was in a bit of a state of daze myself once I saw the Nov 1st 2007.

Basically, for you and me, it is any VB now, it's a very strange state to be in. I and gcseeker were earlier talking about restless nights this week, now the week has been extended to n number of months.
10-05-2011, 04:23 PM
Monica12

OMG !!! just saw.. A big congrats to all my buddies here who got current...Yipeeeeeee..!!
10/10/2007, belmontboy, indiaeb2, rd singh, bleakhope and everyone else who I'm forgetting...:D
Teddy.. man, I'm really happy for you :D
and Soggadu, what can I say....I'm partying this weekend to celebrate you getting electrified :D
Gcseeker, Nishant and everyone else who missed it by a few days,buddies..hang in there.I think next month also, we should see some movement:D
10-05-2011, 04:43 PM
sandeep11

Congratulations to everybody that got current. Teddy/Sogaddu congratulations!!!!!

So truly said Nishant. I am one month away (Dec) and honestly I was a little disappointed, but on the positive side we are atleast close by. If we look at it four years back from now this is much much better.

What can we infer from the below. They said there would be siginificant demand, they also mentioned they anticipate significant cut-off date movement, in addition they say it wouldn't be monthly and eventually retrogress.

This advancement is expected to generate significant levels of demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices. While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis. Readers should not expect such movements to be the norm throughout the fiscal year, and an eventual retrogression of the cut-off at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Very well said. I am 11/8/2007 , hence not current, but yes, can see light at the end of the tunnel.

I was in a bit of a state of daze myself once I saw the Nov 1st 2007.

Basically, for you and me, it is any VB now, it's a very strange state to be in. I and gcseeker were earlier talking about restless nights this week, now the week has been extended to n number of months.
10-05-2011, 04:51 PM
soggadu

thnx all for the wishes... also heads up for all... get ur appointment asap...

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?ac...ffice_type=CIV

(thanks to Monica for the link and wishes...she's the best)
10-05-2011, 04:52 PM
gchopeful123

Current!!!

Oh my God!! I am current (Sep 2007) !!!

I dont believe this. I was expecting the VB to be out on Fri, not today. Was not ready for this pleasant shock. To think we were discussing about vaccinations just a couple of weeks back.

I was busy today so didnt browse the forum much. I was going page by page until i reached page 13 and voila!!

Soggadu, my jersey desi bhai - are u current?

Congrats to all who are current!!
10-05-2011, 04:55 PM
qesehmk

soggadu dear very happy for you. Your old avatar (same one when I became current) is FANTASTIC :)

You must be having "Pehla Pyaar Laye Jeevan Mein Bahaar"-Kind-of-happiness I assume !!

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

thnx all for the wishes... also heads up for all... get ur appointment asap...

https://egov.uscis.gov/crisgwi/go?ac...ffice_type=CIV

(thanks to Monica for the link and wishes...she's the best)
10-05-2011, 04:57 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

soggadu dear very happy for you. Your old avatar (same one when I became current) is FANTASTIC :)

You must be having "Pehla Pyaar Laye Jeevan Mein Bahaar"-Kind-of-happiness I assume !!

yes Q... i am excited, anxious and a lot more...but got nice friends who are helping me calm down right now....lol... thnx for the wishes and i hope everything gets done smoothly... feeling like my first date right now....lol...
10-05-2011, 04:58 PM
soggadu

Quote:

Originally Posted by gchopeful123

Oh my God!! I am current (Sep 2007) !!!

I dont believe this. I was expecting the VB to be out on Fri, not today. Was not ready for this pleasant shock. To think we were discussing about vaccinations just a couple of weeks back.

I was busy today so didnt browse the forum much. I was going page by page until i reached page 13 and voila!!

Soggadu, my jersey desi bhai - are u current?

Congrats to all who are current!!

hopefull bhai...ur hopes are full now.... yes i am in too...
10-05-2011, 05:14 PM
Gclongwait

I hope we get the same movement next month

I hope we get 3.5 months next mnth also. Put me over the edge.
10-05-2011, 05:31 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

yes big T, beiber, JJ and all people of the forum........ i am also current... pehli baar current huaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.............. it's like going on my first date...no words to describe....i wish everybody gets current (so that everybody feel so confused as me :-) ).... abb mein kya karoon ( what do i do now)....also thanks to my friend prabha who has given me this news...he is one of the anonymous readers...

Jai ho to everyone...ROCK ONNNNNNNN....

Big N and others....dont worry... aap khatar mein ho ( you are in the line) and next number is yours... i am very sure it is going to go till 2008 September this time... the trend has started... i wish u all (including myself) the very best to come....

Congratulations Soggadu, Please drink responsibly tonight! :)
10-05-2011, 05:33 PM
TeddyKoochu

Thanks & Congrats to all Current

Dear friends, my sincerest and heartfelt thanks to all of you for your good wishes. I have no words to thank you all. Congrats to everyone who is current.
10-05-2011, 05:40 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Dear friends, my sincerest and heartfelt thanks to all of you for your good wishes. I have no words to thank you all. Congrats to everyone who is current.

Teddy... You Rock !!!!! So happy for you and my other buddies here. I'm probably more happy today, then when I became current last month. When happiness can be shared with others...it means so much more :D
Hell... I think I will have a few drinks tonite LOL!
10-05-2011, 05:54 PM
Stemcell

Quote:

Originally Posted by immitime

Read this it is TRUE...Happy for you

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...in_Nov2011.pdf

Thank you for replying.
Its been a long journey....couldnt believe my eyes and still cannot believe it....somebody touch me.....
10-05-2011, 05:55 PM
Spectator

Updated PWD Analysis for FY2011 Q1-Q3

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Spec,

Could please analyze PW data from Q3 2011?

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm

I didn't see it in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-Data-Analysis

Thanks a bunch!

kd,

Updated now.

I analyzed it when it came out, but the % had changed so little, I didn't bother to publish it.

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