EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

You are missing the wood for the trees bro.



If you see the slide in the above post by @spectator, it is very clear that the SO will be utilized by EB1 before any remnants can fall down to EB2. So, unless CO decides to side step the Rule that he has himself quoted and favor EB2, I don't see how EB2I can advance more than its quota of 2800 in this FY or even the next FY. There simply is not enough EB3 SO to clear out EB3I and EB1 and then fall down to EB2. By the start of next FY, CO will have advanced EB3I far out enough to generate sufficient demand to soak up the ALL EB3 SO. I see EB3I being ahead of EB2I till the existing unfiled EB2I and EB3I PERM's are cleared. Certainly there is some substance in the Duplicate and Multiple PERM's argument, but it does nothing to help SO in EB3, which I am afraid may not be more than 10K Per year even with all the MAGA mania going on in USCIS.

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I loved the anecdote. But I believe in taking a swing to hit the pot.

I agree with the notes/flow provided by Spec. But just because the max speed limit is 65, we are not going to stay under it. The catch is conditions permitting. Almost 80-90% of Eb2 I before May 2009 have to be porters. It also means there is a very little chance of unfiled EB2Â’s before this date. This 3 day movement is reminiscent of EB3 India March 2005 movement early 2017. Once the clog is gone it is going to be a faster movement. Yes I agree the numbers are heavier in EB2, but the potential EB3 surge will help at 30% of porters back into Eb3 queue.

I hate to put water on the spillover party - but to my knowledge
A) there is no explicit Fall Up from EB3 to EB1.
B) I am not aware that CO has the discretion to create such a Fall Up.
C) I'd be mighty surprised if he actually does that in the interest of backlogged folks from India and China.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I hate to put water on the spillover party - but to my knowledge
A) there is no explicit Fall Up from EB3 to EB1.
B) I am not aware that CO has the discretion to create such a Fall Up.
C) I'd be mighty surprised if he actually does that in the interest of backlogged folks from India and China.

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Q,

I can't disagree with you.

That was certainly my position before the PP presentation.

In a previous post, I showed that the law does not explicitly allow for SO from EB3 to another EB class within the FY.

This is in contrast to FB where the law specifically allows a circular SO.

If it's specific for FB, why not the same specificity for EB?

There remains the possibility that the PP slide is incorrect.

I agree with your view that it wouldn't fall under CO's discretionary powers. The law is so complex and interlinked, that perhaps some other provision in the INA allows him to do it.

The proof may only come in the actions and the final figures for the FY.

So, it seems the movement of EB2I to March 2009 is simply based on horizontal SO from EB2ROW due to interview delays. Since CO has not given a date for EB3, maybe he still does not know what to do with the excess EB3 visas?

Like Spec said, it will be interesting to see the final numbers for this FY.

Thanks Spec. I agree that CO may very well have something up his sleeve.

Lets hope so with a realistic view of what's allowed under the law.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

I can't disagree with you.

That was certainly my position before the PP presentation.

In a previous post, I showed that the law does not explicitly allow for SO from EB3 to another EB class within the FY.

This is in contrast to FB where the law specifically allows a circular SO.

If it's specific for FB, why not the same specificity for EB?

There remains the possibility that the PP slide is incorrect.

I agree with your view that it wouldn't fall under CO's discretionary powers. The law is so complex and interlinked, that perhaps some other provision in the INA allows him to do it.

The proof may only come in the actions and the final figures for the FY.

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In theory, as long as backlogs exist in either EB2or EB3, there should be no leftover visas in EB3 because it is easy to interfile from EB2 to EB3. Any efforts to illegally spill over leftover EB3 visas to EB1 should be resisted and challenged by all stakeholders. Leftover EB3 visas in the current situation is nothing but a result of mismanagement by the USCIS and the CO combined. If this illegal funneling is allowed to get entrenched it will create havoc for years to come. It has already happened for a couple of years (at least in effect). Illegally moving these visas over to EB1 will never help backlogged folks as we now know that EB1 has a bottomless appetite for visas and will rarely if ever generate spill overs. Moreover, this kind of illegal spillover would only compound the injustice to people stuck in the line for decades where EB1 are barely waiting an year or two. Also, there is hardly anything to suggest that EB1 as a whole are in any way more meritorious or deserving than other EB categories. Lets all play by the rules, howsoever nonsensical they may be.

Frankly speaking i am baffled by the whole talk about EB3 to EB1 spillover. I think that's quite sneaky way to rob EB2/3 of their visas.

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Originally Posted by Positive

In theory, as long as backlogs exist in either EB2or EB3, there should be no leftover visas in EB3 because it is easy to interfile from EB2 to EB3. Any efforts to illegally spill over leftover EB3 visas to EB1 should be resisted and challenged by all stakeholders. Leftover EB3 visas in the current situation is nothing but a result of mismanagement by the USCIS and the CO combined. If this illegal funneling is allowed to get entrenched it will create havoc for years to come. It has already happened for a couple of years (at least in effect). Illegally moving these visas over to EB1 will never help backlogged folks as we now know that EB1 has a bottomless appetite for visas and will rarely if ever generate spill overs. Moreover, this kind of illegal spillover would only compound the injustice to people stuck in the line for decades where EB1 are barely waiting an year or two. Also, there is hardly anything to suggest that EB1 as a whole are in any way more meritorious or deserving than other EB categories. Lets all play by the rules, howsoever nonsensical they may be.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Frankly speaking i am baffled by the whole talk about EB3 to EB1 spillover. I think that's quite sneaky way to rob EB2/3 of their visas.

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Totally agree. Perhaps, those involved with advocacy organizations should raise this issue and make enough noise to deter such tendency to misallocate visas. We know they are all into HR392 etc. but pursuing an all or nothing agenda keeps setting us back bit by bit. It is in the interest of all concerned about EB backlogs to stop EB1 from walking away with more than 40,000 visas in a given year unless those visas are FB spillovers. If a fraction of the activism was directed towards making sure that the current laws are obeyed, we would be much better off.

The same diligent USCIS and CO, who carefully advance EB2 by 3 days (seriously!) when not retrogressing EB2 and EB3 to an extent that these categories end up getting up to 3000 to 4000 visas less than their allocation, are (intentionally?) sleeping when EB1 somehow gets more than their share of visas issued. One would think they would be more diligent in making sure that the backlogged categories get every last visa that is properly due to them rather than lending their weight to further weigh the scales against them.

Bottom line is, we do not need unused Eb3 visas to illegally spill over to EB1 in the hopes that it will then trickle down to EB2. EB2 can easily consume any surplus in EB3 by interfiling.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Frankly speaking i am baffled by the whole talk about EB3 to EB1 spillover. I think that's quite sneaky way to rob EB2/3 of their visas.

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So far EB3 has been robbed of the visas, I don't know if EB2 lost any. But I would hold CO responsible for any such EB Visa robbery. He has the authority to advance the Dates so that no Visas are lost, but has lacked the vision to do so. Wonder why he is revered and regarded so highly by AILA and Q's gurus.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Wonder why he is revered and regarded so highly by AILA and Q's gurus.

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I can't speak for others .... but I don't revere him. He has a job to do and his office portrays this as a very complicated thing. Either he hasn't discovered excel or computers OR the whole visa allocation is a thing tied with geo-political objectives. I am confident it's the latter.

Having said that I also think he is only doing his job. The moment we do away with country quota - the current nonsense will stop.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Having said that I also think he is only doing his job. The moment we do away with country quota - the current nonsense will stop.

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Ironically, in the House hearing on "Wasted Visas, Growing Backlogs", the 7% country cap was given as the prime reason for Visas being wasted.

https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-1...0hhrg42118.htm

We can agonize and shout from the roof tops, but ground reality is EB2I majorly screwed and EB3I to some extent is screwed because of CO's actions which are benefiting EB1. I expect EB3I to race past EB2I in the coming VB, given all the data that we has been posted on this thread.

Off the topic,

When CO could predict EB2-I and EB3-I Priority dates for July, why delay in releasing the VB? what is cooking behind the scene?

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Originally Posted by march1612

Off the topic,

When CO could predict EB2-I and EB3-I Priority dates for July, why delay in releasing the VB? what is cooking behind the scene?

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He did not mention a cutoff date for EB3I, only EB2I. I will not be surprised if both have the same cutoff date.

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

He did not mention a cutoff date for EB3I, only EB2I. I will not be surprised if both have the same cutoff date.

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He predicted EB3-I would move significantly which means he knows how far he has to move.

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Originally Posted by march1612

He predicted EB3-I would move significantly which means he knows how far he has to move.

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So much power in hands of one man! Like a messiah to the helpless Indian GC seekers :)

I'm seeing ROW approvals pre-March 2017 dates with RFE being issued in May 2018, my guess is ROW field office approvals are kind of saturated and Visa office/USCIS is kind of finding how interviews are scheduled for next month, which gives them an estimate to move the dates.

Either it can be too good news or bad news for desi Jantha.

isnt it high time for the July VB to be published? what is causing this delay.
will dates for eb2 move upto March 09 as promised by CO

Critical data point is demand at Field offices and if the demand is reported back to DOS from Field Offices? I believe this is the game changer which can turn the tide either way!!!

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Originally Posted by march1612

Critical data point is demand at Field offices and if the demand is reported back to DOS from Field Offices? I believe this is the game changer which can turn the tide either way!!!

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Not sure if this helps rest of the group. We have filed for EAD/AP renewals (based on pending I485 filed back in 2012, PD of 02/2010), instead of general 2 years, this time AP has come only for 1 year and EAD has not yet come (hoping to get it in the next month), but reading between the lines, it seems 2010 may be in for some change by early next year (which means 2009 as CO said, may be in for some movement this year)

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Originally Posted by incredible

Not sure if this helps rest of the group. We have filed for EAD/AP renewals (based on pending I485 filed back in 2012, PD of 02/2010), instead of general 2 years, this time AP has come only for 1 year and EAD has not yet come (hoping to get it in the next month), but reading between the lines, it seems 2010 may be in for some change by early next year (which means 2009 as CO said, may be in for some movement this year)

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thanks incredible.
hoping to see some movement in eb2 in this VB.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

Thank you Spec for the numbers.

Here is my take on these numbers.
These numbers have NOT surprised me but inefficiency in allocating 77.7K visas ONLY in place of 80K QUOTA to EB 3 & 2 categories put together, that’s a 2.3k wastage of visas OR misallocations. Otherwise these 2.2k visas would have gone to EB 2&3 India and would have saved 100s of families struggling with age out kids(so called H4 dreamer kids)
I used to say in my previous posts that EB2 I will not get any relief until the EB3 I catches up with EB2 I. This has become true.
I strongly believe that 90% to 100% of those 2,879 visas in EB2I might have gone to porters (leaving a zero for original EB2 I candidates) and on top of that there might be an increase in EB2 I inventory due to upward porting from EB3 I.
But it will not be too far anymore that this porting is going to become zero and eventually negative (downward from EB2I to EB3I).
This is the reason why I used to say that we have to see EB3-I and EB2-I as together going forward. We can safely expect a total of 10K+ visas to (EB2 - I PLUS EB3 - I) together each year from now on till we see any vertical spillover (if any) in far future (i.e. a minimum of 10k/80k to India in EB 2 and EB 3 categories put together).
Who will claim these 10k+ visas is an entirely different story and it depends on how actively EB2 I people will do downward porting to grab the available visas in EB3 I. A same scenario what we are seeing in EB2I will be seen in EB3I scenario i.e. Eb3I PDs will be stalled at 2009/2010 PDs till the corresponding PDs in EB2I completely exhausted by downward porting.

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Will EB2-I reach May 2010 by September 2018?

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Originally Posted by incredible

Not sure if this helps rest of the group. We have filed for EAD/AP renewals (based on pending I485 filed back in 2012, PD of 02/2010), instead of general 2 years, this time AP has come only for 1 year and EAD has not yet come (hoping to get it in the next month), but reading between the lines, it seems 2010 may be in for some change by early next year (which means 2009 as CO said, may be in for some movement this year)

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I have renewed my EAD multiple times. Sometimes 2 years renewal and sometimes 1 year renewal. My PD (Jan 2009) had not been current since 2014. Filed renewal this year and got a 2 year EAD.

I would just say that do not focus a lot on the EAD renewal pattern. Going by the EAD duration logic, it certainly does not make sense to give EAD of 2 year validity to a Jan 2009 PD and give EAD of 1 year validity to a May 2010 PD.

Having said the above, USCIS might want to be very careful in not wasting visas, and hence might proactively send out RFEs to EB2I all the way upto May 2010. This might be because the only category that can consume the visas without interviews is EB2I candidates upto May 2010, and just in case there is rare chance of a huge SO (more than anticipated), then they will have demand ready.

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Originally Posted by incredible

Not sure if this helps rest of the group. We have filed for EAD/AP renewals (based on pending I485 filed back in 2012, PD of 02/2010), instead of general 2 years, this time AP has come only for 1 year and EAD has not yet come (hoping to get it in the next month), but reading between the lines, it seems 2010 may be in for some change by early next year (which means 2009 as CO said, may be in for some movement this year)

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I got two year EAD/AP combo card at my last renewal in 2016 and my wife for 2 year EAD and one year paper AP. For the last 2-3 renewals, our dates aligned. In our upcoming renewal our EAD/AP dates no longer match.

USCIS has no logic when they do this; the goal here is to frustrate us ( based on direction from lawyers given to their USCIS friends)

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

I have renewed my EAD multiple times. Sometimes 2 years renewal and sometimes 1 year renewal. My PD (Jan 2009) had not been current since 2014. Filed renewal this year and got a 2 year EAD.

I would just say that do not focus a lot on the EAD renewal pattern. Going by the EAD duration logic, it certainly does not make sense to give EAD of 2 year validity to a Jan 2009 PD and give EAD of 1 year validity to a May 2010 PD.

Having said the above, USCIS might want to be very careful in not wasting visas, and hence might proactively send out RFEs to EB2I all the way upto May 2010. This might be because the only category that can consume the visas without interviews is EB2I candidates upto May 2010, and just in case there is rare chance of a huge SO (more than anticipated), then they will have demand ready.

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Thanks. Agree with all your comments. Let us see how this goes in the coming months (I think it will be interesting once again after long time).

Hello Q,

Not too far in the distant past (2016). CO allocated EB3i Visa's to EB2I . Law is always up for interpretation. The fact that power point was published with DOS seal, EB3 unused Visa's can be moved to EB1.

Never seen visa bulletin released so late unless there is something cooking behind it. I went back to past years until 2007 and all visa bulletin's were released before 10th of each month except July-2007,Aug-2007 and Sep-2007 VB which was released after 10th,2007

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Originally Posted by march1612

Will EB2-I reach May 2010 by September 2018?

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No. Not EB2-I. But I can expect EB3-I will move to that far in next 6 months.

Earlier in this thread it was discussed why cant CO apply SO to EB1. But in 2016 CO applied 4000+ EB3 Visa's to Eb2i . Based on history he can apply SO to EB1.

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Originally Posted by YTeleven

No. Not EB2-I. But I can expect EB3-I will move to that far in next 6 months.

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And, will it stay there or retrogress? Also, where do you see EB2-I at by then?

Hi Sword - yes i do remember the incident but not the details. He has taken the liberty to do such things. I am not sure if it is lawful nor I am sure if he is held accountable for those actions and by who.

I do not know what his logic was then - but i found it outrageous that when EB3 has people waiting for decades - how could visas go waste at all.

If nobody raised concerns in the past then the likelihood of him repeating it in future is NOT zero.

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Originally Posted by swordfish380

Hello Q,

Not too far in the distant past (2016). CO allocated EB3****isa's to EB2I . Law is always up for interpretation. The fact that power point was published with DOS seal, EB3 unused Visa's can be moved to EB1.

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Originally Posted by swordfish380

Earlier in this thread it was discussed why cant CO apply SO to EB1. But in 2016 CO applied 4000+ EB3 Visa's to Eb2i . Based on history he can apply SO to EB1.

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I have never seen a person with more questionable work ethics than CO. It’s the 14th and still they haven’t released the bulletin. Truly makes the DMV look like a Silicon Valley tech company.

With the Visa Bulletin this late, I have no doubt that USCIS is fighting tooth and nail right now with CO on the Final Action Dates as that is something they cannot control. If the dates are surprisingly bad, VB will come out tomorrow like Friday Dump news!

Rant:
USCIS is probably the only agency that has the best of both worlds - they are a federal agency so all of them have the federal gov't employee mentality but they operate as a private organization on private funds (applicant fee) and hence, neither Congress nor American taxpayers care. They have no accountability and can get away with all these. The one agency stuck in the stone age which still accepts paper applications and checks. With the work culture and mentality they have, USCIS employees will never survive a day in the private industry and yet, somehow they are the ones who gets to decide if a specific profession is a specialty occupation or not and send an RFE! Go figure!

Rant over!

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

With the Visa Bulletin this late, I have no doubt that USCIS is fighting tooth and nail right now with CO on the Final Action Dates as that is something they cannot control. If the dates are surprisingly bad, VB will come out tomorrow like Friday Dump news!

Rant:
USCIS is probably the only agency that has the best of both worlds - they are a federal agency so all of them have the federal gov't employee mentality but they operate as a private organization on private funds (applicant fee) and hence, neither Congress nor American taxpayers care. They have no accountability and can get away with all these. The one agency stuck in the stone age which still accepts paper applications and checks. With the work culture and mentality they have, USCIS employees will never survive a day in the private industry and yet, somehow they are the ones who gets to decide if a specific profession is a specialty occupation or not and send an RFE! Go figure!

Rant over!

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I believe it is the field offices which are not giving exact number about the number of visas that are required for interviews that are lined up in July,Aug and September.

I think CO does not want to retrogress the dates and this is the reason why he has been taking conservative approach.

Field offices data could tilt the ship either way !!!

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Hi Sword - yes i do remember the incident but not the details. He has taken the liberty to do such things. I am not sure if it is lawful nor I am sure if he is held accountable for those actions and by who.

I do not know what his logic was then - but i found it outrageous that when EB3 has people waiting for decades - how could visas go waste at all.

If nobody raised concerns in the past then the likelihood of him repeating it in future is NOT zero.

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EB3I has been waiting for a long time but porting has caused EB2I's wait time to increase to a decade as well. So i do not share the same sentiment. Porting should not be allowed. If EB3 qualifys for EB2 they should get a priority date from the new application and should not be allowed to keep the old date.

They have over year stats from field offices, I don't think it's tough to make a close guess. This is not going to be the first time they retrogress date, in case of generous move.

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Originally Posted by march1612

I believe it is the field offices which are not giving exact number about the number of visas that are required for interviews that are lined up in July,Aug and September.

I think CO does not want to retrogress the dates and this is the reason why he has been taking conservative approach.

Field offices data could tilt the ship either way !!!

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July visa bulletin released.

EB2 India - 15th March,2009

EB3- 1st November, 2008

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Originally Posted by canada

July visa bulletin released.

EB2 India - 15th March,2009

EB3- 1st November, 2008

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This is good news for EB2I. It means CO is diverting EB3 SO Visas to EB2I!!

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Originally Posted by canada

July visa bulletin released.

EB2 India - 15th March,2009

EB3- 1st November, 2008

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Filing dates for EB2I and EB3I are very close now. Hope USCIS honors them:
EB2I - 22 May 09
EB3I - 01 May 09