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Hi Gurus,
There is a lot of confusion and disappointment for many of the EB2-I folks whose date is in 2008 and early 2009 after many law firms released the predictions from DOS.
Does any one have similar experience in the past about the DOS predictions going wrong as many gurus are expecting the priority date will at least move to Dec 2008.
Are we missing any important data? My PD is in Sep 2008 and a first time filer..
Thanks
DOS predictions are always very conservative. Lawyers' predictions are not really predictions - generally they repeat what DOS tells them.
There are lots of predictions around - some bullish some bearish. My advice - if any - on whom to follow - would be to look for some rationale and consistency. While internet gives us access to information - it also gives access to junk information. So it is worthwhile to not just read prediction but also try to understand the rationale behind it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by newguy
newguy,Quote:
Originally Posted by newguy
I understand people's anxiety.
Other than when CO said he hoped to return Cut Off Dates to 2010 (for which he was crucified later), generally he tends to under promise and over deliver.
Of course there is a chance that we are unaware of an important piece of information that CO has.
At the same time, CO does not have all the information he requires either. 85-90% of EB cases are processed by USCIS, so he is reliant on them for information.
CO has regularly bemoaned the lack of information on future demand from USCIS. In particular, he has mentioned several times that USCIS are unable to provide information on future demand from those upgrading from EB3 to EB2. He only sees that demand when USCIS approve the case.
In the past, USCIS has provided information to DOS that was just plain wrong, such as when they suggested EB1 approvals in FY2012 would remain low and that there was little demand from EB2-IC as the Cut off Dates moved forward. That led to over allocation of visa numbers to EB2-IC and retrogression of EB2-WW in FY2012.
It is a fact that EB2-ROW PERM certifications have been lower than normal in the period that should supply I-485 approvals this FY. The only danger would be very quick processing of the I-485 by USCIS combined with a very large increase in PP of the I-140. CO can see high EB1 and EB5 use at present and uncertain EB2-ROW use - I think he wants to keep his options open and not disappoint people by making promises he can't keep.
My take is that the statements can be taken as very generic in nature, so much so that they really mean nothing. I certainly hope that is the case.
Makes sense Q, Your advice is awesome!
Do we expect retrogression for EB2 to mimic last year? Will we see a movement forward in the August bulletin and then retrogression in December? If that's the case then there should be ample time to approve pending applications. (Even if revised medicals are requested or RFE for birth certificates etc.)
Very true! Lawyers like to play it safe and it is easy to understand why. After all there job is to make sure everything gets filed the right wayQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You can be assured of having GC by October, good luck new guy!Quote:
Originally Posted by newguy
Without a doubt - EB2 is going to get thrown back in time come Dec 2014.
This has become quite a ritual now - A) retro EB2 to ridiculous time period and B) come July move them ahead to some sensible time period.
Quote:
Originally Posted by triplet
Murthy is always uber conservative/cautious, I believe in the data on this forum, Q hit it right on the mark last year with dates moving to June 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by sairam09
Thanks Q, yeah, I just hope I can make it through this year along with some of the others in the forum who have dates in the latter half of 2008Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I was hoping to get GC this year, but I am preparing to wait for one more year. This is getting crazy. It would be be 7 years from PD next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by triplet
Quote:
Originally Posted by triplet
As far as EB2 is concerned - Most 2008 folks should get through this cycle. PD2008 - unless your case has some issues - I would be really surprised if you don't get a GC this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
I hope it's sooner rather than later this fiscal year. The most challenging thing about being on EAD is explaining it to some recruiters who are trying to fill out a form. Are u on H1 or Green Card ....uh... Neither :)
I hear you Vizcard, same here, I guess EAD/AP is a good thing to have though even if it takes a while to explain :). In my field nobody knows a thing about the green card process or H1/EAD for that matter. Good luck man, I hope you get through this year, you've helped so many people on this forum.
June VB is out. As expected no changes to EB2I. One surprise EB3 China went back to 2006.
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...june-2014.html
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/l...
EB2-India 15-Nov-2004
EB3-India 15-Oct-2003
No movement for EB2-India
EB3 - ROW retrogressed to April 01 2011 from Oct 2012
EB3- China has retrogressed to 01 Oct 2006
I think Section D is quite interesting and illuminating.
Notice the phrase for EB3 "has resulted in number use approaching the annual limit for this category". That confirms what I suspected - that EB3-ROW already have fairly high approvals to date and far ahead of the usual number for this point in the year.Quote:
D. RETROGRESSION OF JUNE CUT-OFF DATES
WORLDWIDE F2A:
The cut-off date for the Family F2A category was advanced at a very rapid pace during fiscal year 2013 in an effort to generate demand to use all numbers available under the annual limit. Those movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in the level of applicant demand being received during the past seven months. This has required the retrogression of the Family F2A cut-off date for June in an effort to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Further retrogression cannot be ruled out should demand by applicants with very early priority dates continue to increase.
MEXICO F2A:
Despite a previous retrogression, the level of demand has remained excessive, resulting in a further retrogression of this cut-off date to hold number use within the annual limit.
Employment Third, and Third Other Workers:
The unexpected and dramatic increase in demand being received from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service Offices during the past several months has resulted in number use approaching the annual limit for this category. As a result, it has been necessary to retrogress the Worldwide, China, and Mexico cut-off dates for the month of June.
Notices were included in several Visa Bulletins during the past year alerting readers to the possibility of such retrogressions. While corrective action in some categories has become necessary earlier than was anticipated based on the information available earlier, it is hoped that readers are not caught off guard by these retrogressions.
Such severe retrogression of EB3-China is slightly surprising, but it probably speaks volumes for the number of EB2-China applicants who have reverse ported. A Cut Off Date of 01OCT06 (6 year retrogression) is the equivalent of saying it is Unavailable and that China have reached the 7% limit within EB3. EB3-China Other Workers has retrogressed 9 years 9 months to 01JAN03, which is now earlier than that for EB3-India.
On the Family Based side, as promised, F2A WW have retrogressed (1 year 4 months) and F2A Mexico have retrogressed a further 1 year 1 month.
CO mentioned that FB2B demand was a little low, so he has moved that forward 3 months for F2B WW and even 2 1/2 months for F2B Mexico (although F2B-M still remains retrogressed compared to the start of the FY). FB2B WW has moved forward 1 year 6 weeks during FY2014 to date.
It might be taken as evidence that CO is determined not to waste FB visas this year.
Spec
I strongly suspect that EB3C retrogression is a technical retrogression just like EB2I where the porting does exceed the country quota but not by so much but enough to the point where retrogression is justified. Come Q4 that retrogression should go away - except for EB3C this year since EB3ROW is unlikely to yield anything this year. But next year that retrogression will certainly vanish.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q and Spec,
Since lot of China applicants have reverse ported from Eb2 to Eb3 it means that number of Eb2 China people in the pipeline must have reduced somewhat. Correct?
Is this a good sign meaning instead of dates moving to March 1, 2009 for Eb2 India (as per popular prediction) can it move by another 3-4 months (say for example June 1, 2009?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I'm not sure what you mean by technical retrogression. EB3-C do not appear to have any more visas available under this year's allocation (or extremely few). Note that CO has said number use is approaching the annual limit, not demand. EB3-P will still consume significant numbers if their COD continues to advance.
The same with EB3-WW - the demand was going to be too great for the remaining visas, if left at last months COD.
Next FY, a new allocation will be available and the COD will jump accordingly. In both cases, it is saying that visa allocation has been so high that gradual progression (or even stagnation) of the COD is not possible.
It is entirely different to EB2-I IMO (which is technical retrogression), because that that is caused by the wait for a determination of the number of spare visas that will be available from other Categories and Countries within EB2 - that is not a consideration for EB3, since they receive no spillover. EB3 will have a fixed number of about 43k this FY and the comment suggests the majority of those have already been used.
By technical I mean not realistic given that is not where the wall of demand for that category exists.
So yes Indeed technically 2006 is where EB3C reached its cap this year. But the demand wall of EB3C perhaps is not there. Same with EB2I. Their demand wall is around aug 2008 right now. In other words any spillover start eating at that wall but then come Oct/Nov 2014 the technical retrogression will kick in and EB2I will go back to stone ages!
p.s. For EB3C EB3ROW will be their savior (I meant next year - not this year).
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for the explanation. Perhaps we just look at (or express) it differently.
The demand wall of EB3C for FY2014 has been reached. I agree the exact COD would be later than 2006 (and earlier than 2012), but it is unknowable at present. The opening date for FY2015 will say something about where it was. As I said previously, I think a COD of 2006 is just a kind way of saying Unavailable.
If by "For EB3C EB3ROW will be their savior." you mean that you believe EB3-C will receive extra visa numbers from EB3-ROW/M at the end of the FY, I disagree. If that were going to be the case, EB3-ROW/M would not have been retrogressed. That says that EB3-ROW/M will reach their full allocation for FY2014 within the new COD. There certainly appear to be enough pending cases to do so.
In any case, even if there were spare visas, they would have to go to EB3-I, who would have the earliest PD of Countries that had reached the 7% limit. That will also be true for several years to come, until both EB3-I and EB3-P reach the same "true" COD as EB3-C.
venkat,Quote:
Originally Posted by venkat
It's likely that the majority of reverse porting occurred for applicants who were not current (or likely to be current this FY) under EB2-C.
If there were those that would have been current under EB2-C this year, it just allows the EB2-C Cut Off Date to progress further for the 3k allocation they have and allows somewhat faster progression of EB2-C dates in future years.
It does not alter the number of spare visas available to EB2-I in any way, since EB2-C will not use any of the spillover available. EB2-C will finish FY2014 at a later Cut Off Date than EB2-I can reach, even with all the spillover visa numbers.
I haven't been paying much attention to the FB side of things. Do we have any FB to EB spillover in FY14 (like last year)? I know early in the FY, there were some estimates but I don't know what happened since.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
vizcard,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
10k has been mentioned already http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/...cal_Limits.pdf
It should end up at slightly over 10.2k. FB used 10,247 less than their allocation last year. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...OS-Visa-Report
Spec - I agree that right now it is not knowable. So what I am saying is just a guess!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
As per EB3ROW being savior -- I was only talking about next year - not this. And thanks for pointing out that EB3I is where most of those numbers may go. So even next EB3C may stay retrogressed but certainly not at 2006.
I think as sometimes (often), we have been talking at cross purposes. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree (and I don't think I have said otherwise) that EB3-C will jump back to a sensible COD as soon as FY2015 begins.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Whats the realistic hope for the EB2I Dates to be moved this FY Year.
I don't know what you mean "Cross Purposes".
But I didn't find any major disagreeable things here. So we are good - I guess ;)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q<Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I don't think it is worth prolonging the conversation over what amounts to nothing.
No need to guess - we are good (at least I hope so!)
I think I am in agreement with most other people.Quote:
Originally Posted by sairam09
The dates will definitely (in my mind) move beyond the Jan 2008 date mentioned by CO to at least somewhere in late-ish 2008.
How much they move beyond that is down to the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW for the remainder of the FY. Currently, EB1 approval rates appear high and EB2-ROW approval rates appear quite low. Both can change in the second half of the year.
I can't honestly say I see dates moving beyond March 2009 even in the most optimistic scenario. Currently, I don't even see that as very likely, as all the news lately has been negative to the number of visas that might be available.
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory
Some observations from a very quick look.
Despite apparent fairly heavy approvals for EB1 during Jan-Mar 2014, the EB1 Inventory actually rose very slightly to 18.1k. Most of the rise (95%) was due increased EB1-I cases (31% of the total).
Reductions in the EB3-I Inventory for dates beyond the EB3-I Cut Off Date suggest there has been at least 2.6k porting cases approved under EB2-I between Oct-Mar.
Most of the EB5 cases that were pending previously seem to have been approved. The number dropped from 654 in the Jan Inventory to 59 in the April Inventory. EB5 AOS cases only account for about 15% of EB5 cases and only 10% of EB5-C cases, who account for 80% of all EB5 approvals.
Thanks Spec! With the new Data we should get some insight as well.
Thanks for the input Spec.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Just wanted to add that the EB2ROW applications have almost doubled. I went back and checked that what was the inventory for the last 3 months preceding the inventory published date:
---------------------------Last month----Second last---------Third last
July 2013 inventory---------233-----------368-----------------133
Oct 2013 inventory---------291-----------352-----------------296
Jan 2014 inventory---------512-----------502-----------------258
Apr 2014 inventory---------473-----------553-----------------680
------------------------------------------------------------------------
For EB2ROW, is the application date of I-140 that decides the month/year and not the PD ? OI somehow never understood this. For example, EB2I always has number put up based on PD (PERM application filed date). Why is that not the case for EB2WW ?
Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
EB2-ROW is no different from EB2-I for a standard PERM based case. The PD is the PERM filing date.
If the case is an NIW or Schedule A, the PD would be the I-140 filing date, since neither require a PERM.
BTW, I think I know why you are asking. As I have said before I do not have much confidence in the figures in the Inventory at the micro scale, particularly for Countries/Categories that are Current. USCIS data entry appears to be shockingly bad.
It's worth reiterating that, according to USCIS, the Inventory only contains I-485 numbers where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Neither NIW nor EB1C have premium processing of the I-140 available.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for the reply again.
I need to do more research about Schedule A, as I am not aware of it.
Two more months and we shall know where we land up this year. Good luck.
Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Schedule A won't be much of a factor for EB2-ROW.
It is mainly nurses and physical therapists. The vast majority would apply under EB3 and the vast bulk of applications are from the Philippines.
Am I correct in thinking you are wondering how there can be any cases reported with a PD in 2014 for EB2-ROW, when PERM processing dates are still in 2013 and a regular processed NIW takes a long time to adjudicate?
If so, you are not alone. It begs the question of what the Inventory does represent. I sure appears it isn't strictly by PD as it is advertized to be. That makes use of it rather limited IMO.
Hi Q,Spec
Does this inventory give us idea regarding SO to EB2I?Thank You!
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
You are correct. That is what I have been wondering. I feel it is best to go with your advice to treat the rest of the data in inventory as unimportant and inaccurate. The only good use of the inventory is to see the pending EB2I demand. EB2ROW and EB1 numbers may be misleading.
Not in my opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by helooo
The continuing high number of EB1 might suggest that EB1 approvals are not going to slow down if USCIS process them to approval.