EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

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KD this is really good research. Since everything is by PD ideally the trend does indicate significant demand destruction if we read it quite literally for 2008. However what happened in 2008 was quite unusual after mid 2008 every perm went for an audit, so potentially these people may have lost interest in tracking itself for 140. What is important is how many people simply had to leave because they were in their 6th year so could not extend H1 or some who just switched employers so the perms became redundant. Porting was not a phenomenon in this time. Normally I have used Trackitt just for I485 over corresponding periods it works well for EB2 ROW here we are trying to relate 2 different entities perm & I140 ideally we would expect the audience level to be similar as it is for 2009 and 2010. One thing to note is that the 2008 perm figures are now low by any means but resulted in significantly lower I140, this lends good credibility to the research. On another note Trackitt ratios keep changing. However I must agree that this is the first research that indicates demand destruction for 2008.
Now let’s try to use your research in 2009 and 2010 trend is closer to the 60% line whereas the 2008 figure points to closer to 33%. This might imply 27% extra demand destruction, so we should move closer to the transformation ratio of .73 instead of 1. If the transformation ratio is 0.7 then this means 2200 *.73 ~= 1600 + 250PM porting = 1850. Thus far we have had 16.5 months of intake so this makes the gross intake 30525, this makes the Nett SOFAD required to cross 01-JAN-2009 as 30525 + (8.5 -9)K – SOFAD Consumed ~ 40K. So we are kind of closer to the 40K mark. This would mean that there is probably a 10K buffer but CO and the agencies can quite literally see it only once they monitor the Jan filings, else they can still have their foot on the gas pedal and the intake can go on further. Intake is completely in the discretionary domain, IMHO when the Jan bulletin was released only Nov filings could at best be tabulated and this zone does not come at all closer to the time when perm issues started in 2008 (Time of significant demand destruction), so looks like they expected higher filings even in later 2007 PD zone that they actually got. Hopefully the inventory will clear everything out.

But I don't see a huge increase in the 485 thread too. Not just it. When the Jan Bulletin is twice the size (9.5 months) of Dec Bulletin, The people crying out in joy should be twice too. But I don't see many shouting out here, neither in other forums.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Two reasons - first - a lot of very active people on the board have already become current - so their focus has shifted from analysis/calculation/anticipation to prepare-for-485 and post-485 stuff. ...

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Yay for empirical evidence. I am enthused by the extent of the movement in the last VB (almost feels like panic on DoS' part) and the language that did not close the door in future movement. Qualitative evidence does point towards future movement - and now we are getting quantitative data to support the qualitative assessment as well.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

One thing to note is that the 2008 perm figures are now low by any means but resulted in significantly lower I140, this lends good credibility to the research. On another note Trackitt ratios keep changing. However I must agree that this is the first research that indicates demand destruction for 2008.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Veni - I am not sure I understood your conclusion. I understand the data you presented and I agree with the statement below - but I am not sure what you are suggesting regarding possibility of a significant demand destruction in 2008.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Veni - I have same question.

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My point was most of the FY2008 and FY2009 PERM filings are certified by FY2010. From the statistics we know that EB2IC received at least 25k VISA per year for last couple of years (total 50K).

Ron is saying ~70% of FY2008&FY2009 PERMs are indeed EB3-->EB2 conversions, if that is true then EB3I and EB3ROW inventories should have decreased significantly instead we saw the decrease in EB2IC inventory.

Bottom line is, data does not support Ron's conversion (upgrade) theory. Hope i am clear this time!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

KD this is really good research. Since everything is by PD ideally the trend does indicate significant demand destruction if we read it quite literally for 2008. However what happened in 2008 was quite unusual after mid 2008 every perm went for an audit, so potentially these people may have lost interest in tracking itself for 140. What is important is how many people simply had to leave because they were in their 6th year so could not extend H1 or some who just switched employers so the perms became redundant. Porting was not a phenomenon in this time. Normally I have used Trackitt just for I485 over corresponding periods it works well for EB2 ROW here we are trying to relate 2 different entities perm & I140 ideally we would expect the audience level to be similar as it is for 2009 and 2010. One thing to note is that the 2008 perm figures are now low by any means but resulted in significantly lower I140, this lends good credibility to the research. On another note Trackitt ratios keep changing. However I must agree that this is the first research that indicates demand destruction for 2008.
Now let’s try to use your research in 2009 and 2010 trend is closer to the 60% line whereas the 2008 figure points to closer to 33%. This might imply 27% extra demand destruction, so we should move closer to the transformation ratio of .73 instead of 1. If the transformation ratio is 0.7 then this means 2200 *.73 ~= 1600 + 250PM porting = 1850. Thus far we have had 16.5 months of intake so this makes the gross intake 30525, this makes the Nett SOFAD required to cross 01-JAN-2009 as 30525 + (8.5 -9)K – SOFAD Consumed ~ 40K. So we are kind of closer to the 40K mark. This would mean that there is probably a 10K buffer but CO and the agencies can quite literally see it only once they monitor the Jan filings, else they can still have their foot on the gas pedal and the intake can go on further. Intake is completely in the discretionary domain, IMHO when the Jan bulletin was released only Nov filings could at best be tabulated and this zone does not come at all closer to the time when perm issues started in 2008 (Time of significant demand destruction), so looks like they expected higher filings even in later 2007 PD zone that they actually got. Hopefully the inventory will clear everything out.

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IMO- actually they did NOT get the number of filings they were looking for hence this drastic movement. And remember most of PWMBs would be in too. So probably both numbers were short of their expectation. ( If reasoning in the VB is to be believed :) )

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Originally Posted by Feb262009

But I don't see a huge increase in the 485 thread too. Not just it. When the Jan Bulletin is twice the size (9.5 months) of Dec Bulletin, The people crying out in joy should be twice too. But I don't see many shouting out here, neither in other forums.

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You are right but i believe most of the 2008 PD's are not active members or they never visited the forum as this move was not expected.

As someone said those people might be busy in getting the documents ready, i am sure we will see more noise in the post 485 thread once things settle down.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RRRRRR

You are right but i believe most of the 2008 PD's are not active members or they never visited the forum as this move was not expected.

As someone said those people might be busy in getting the documents ready, i am sure we will see more noise in the post 485 thread once things settle down.

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I don't think that there are fewer members from 2008 - PD.
No one thought of such a big date movement and after such big movement we should have seen more joy and cry. But we didn't - I tend to agree with Gurus that there's demand destruction.
When I called to my attorney he said, " the number of calls received after the bulletin were not as expected ..." I think there were at least 25-30 perms filed during 08 from my company but the number of calls received by attorney were very few and this might be the indicator of so called demand destruction.

I don't understand one thing that how come guys from 2007, early 08 managed to save their jobs and reach to 485 and there's no d-destruction ? Come mid 08 and onward we see d-destruction ....
It's quiet baffling:confused:

Well - demand destruction should be highest among PWMB since they have waited the longest without EAD/AP - not to mention the disappointment of missing the big boat by mere days in many cases.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

IMO- actually they did NOT get the number of filings they were looking for hence this drastic movement. And remember most of PWMBs would be in too. So probably both numbers were short of their expectation. ( If reasoning in the VB is to be believed :) )

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We don't know whether there was or was not any demand destruction in 2007 and early 2008 PDs. For all we know, there was significant demand destruction there. Since last FY only reached 15-Apr-07, we just about finished with EAD/AP people - where we would expect low DD, if any. This FY is when we are getting new inventory including good part of PWMBs - this is where we would expect DD - but we won't know the extent until we get more data in the form of Demand Data or I-485 inventory.
I would imagine that up to now DD was getting balanced by porting. Now perhaps we are reaching a situation where most of the potential porting cases are already through and there is nothing to balance the high level of DD.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by codesmith

I don't understand one thing that how come guys from 2007, early 08 managed to save their jobs and reach to 485 and there's no d-destruction ? Come mid 08 and onward we see d-destruction ....
It's quiet baffling:confused:

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My Situation:

I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

My question:
1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

Note: She is not planning to work any more

Quote:

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Originally Posted by polapragada

My Situation:

I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

My question:
1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

Note: She is not planning to work any more

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You will have to apply for H4 as she is on a different visa class. In any case check with your lawyer and make sure you apply for H4 before she quits so that there is no Gap

H4 is not required. 485 receipts are enough. She can start work once she gets EAD.

Check with your lawyer too...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by polapragada

My Situation:

I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

My question:
1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

Note: She is not planning to work any more

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by familyguy

H4 is not required. 485 receipts are enough. She can start work once she gets EAD.

Check with your lawyer too...

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I guess what familyguy is saying makes sense, since you have already applied for I485 so i guess you are good, Please ignore my previous post and do check with your lawyer though..

Guys,

I have two I140 with different priority date and category. My lawyer have asked for "REQUEST FOR CONVERSION OF EB-3 PRIORITY DATE TO EB-2 PETITION". I am guessing that my case is under review with VO before they cash out my check and issue me receipt.

Do you think VO will convert/port/interfile/etc.. and will issue me a 485 receipt?


MD: Nov/30
RD: Dec/1
Center: TSC
Chq. Cashed: Not yet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by smuggymba

If you marry a real girl in a real court and really bring her in the US as your wife - that's not fraud.

Coming up with a fake marriage certificate when a wife does not exist is fraud.

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More likely scenario in my case is, If girl is on H1B and working in a different city. If we do court marriage and get certificate, we still won't be able to prove that we're living at same residence. I am asking because I know in some cases, USCIS requires proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account etc to prove genuine marriage. I won't have many of these, Do you think it could be an issue? Thanks for your answer and help.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

More likely scenario in my case is, If girl is on H1B and working in a different city. If we do court marriage and get certificate, we still won't be able to prove that we're living at same residence. I am asking because I know in some cases, USCIS requires proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account etc to prove genuine marriage. I won't have many of these, Do you think it could be an issue? Thanks for your answer and help.

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In my OPINION it should not be an issue as long as you are getting married BEFORE i485 APPROVAL - before it is approved you are still H1b

now I see why you are in bad situation if you are about to file your 485,, if your spouse is out of country she won't be able to come back on H4 if your 485 is already approved before wedding but it has nothing to do with you sending an application because i think your application will be approved based on your PD,,but you may be able to buy few weeks by delaying sending an application few weeks late. If you PD was 08/07, delay in sending application would delay your I 485 approval a little.. but your PD is 08/08 so in my OPINION you are not getting greencard anytime in next month or two,,,so if you are planning to get married soon before 485 APPROVAL, you r good ,,if you wait till your 485 is approved,, you r looking at probably filing F2a for your spouse if she is in India..(talk to your lawyer)

and if girl is here in US on H1b living in different city, i don't see too many problems with Court marriage

good luck

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

More likely scenario in my case is, If girl is on H1B and working in a different city. If we do court marriage and get certificate, we still won't be able to prove that we're living at same residence. I am asking because I know in some cases, USCIS requires proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account etc to prove genuine marriage. I won't have many of these, Do you think it could be an issue? Thanks for your answer and help.

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As I said earlier - If it's a genuine marriage, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

Have a court marriage, take pics, throw a reception, be on the lease together...if it's genuine, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

you will have issues if it's a fake wedding..which of course is not what I'm saying.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by smuggymba

As I said earlier - If it's a genuine marriage, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

Have a court marriage, take pics, throw a reception, be on the lease together...if it's genuine, you will no issues in proving it genuine.

you will have issues if it's a fake wedding..which of course is not what I'm saying.

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I agree with you, proof of living together, marriage albums, bills of utilities, joint bank account MAY become an issue if you are marrying a US Citizen and Applying a greencard thru marriage and so they make you prove your marriage is not fake

This is common issue with most of the families.I think she will be considered as AOS status once L1 is revoked. Anyway check with lawyer. Also note there is 180 day grace period. So try to use either AP or EAD once you get it to be in safe side.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by polapragada

My Situation:

I am here on H1-B and recently filed AOS I-485 along with my wife (I am primary). My wife is on L1-B and planning quit the job end of this week, so her employer will revoke L1B immediately. We haven’t got the FP notice (or EAD/AP yet. Just got receipt number).

My question:
1. Do I need to apply for H-4 for my wife or is she already considered as AOS status?

Note: She is not planning to work any more

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Trackitt trend based on PD for EB2 I+C

PERM tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 2185 + 112
CY 2009 707 + 63
CY 2010 616 + 27
CY 2011 1184 + 30 so far

I-140 tracker: EB2 I+C
CY 2008 687 + 62
CY 2009 440 + 23
CY 2010 431 + 19
CY 2011 329 + 15 so far ..but again many PERMs are not yet approved

The above trend shows very poor "conversion" of PERMS into I-140s in 2008 but better in 2009 and very good in 2010.

Spec, Teddy, Veni what do you think of this?

I have considered total # of applications based on PD - included approved, pending, denied.

May be there is a reason why people don't add their case to I-140 tracker. I don't know. Qualitatively speaking I am inclined to believe this trend.

Please discuss.

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KD-
I am getting only 930 PERM cases for EB2I PD2008 on trackitt? Not sure if we are applying same filter.
Can you please check again?

Teddy/Others
can you please help understand how adjudication works.

PD: Dec 2007
I140 approved by company A which was acquired by Company B.
Filing 485 next week along with an amended I140 (due to acquisition).

My questions are;
1. What is the sequence of approval that take place. We will get EAD, then i 140 gets approved and 485 and get GC?
2. Will the I140 amendment process delay my GC. Premium processing of 140 is not allowed in my case.

Thanks,

Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

Curious to hear thoughts.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

KD-
I am getting only 930 PERM cases for EB2I PD2008 on trackitt? Not sure if we are applying same filter.
Can you please check again?

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Filter : India, Eb2, all,all,period,nochange,nochange,jan2007-Dec2011

July 07 Dec 08 1055
Jan 09 Dec 09 613
Jan 10 Dec 10 560

What do you think above % of total filers ?

We have an active discussion going in on this issue in the Bills/Advocacy thread. You are welcome to share your thoughts there.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by codesmith

Just wanted to update Q members.
I'll remove this post at the end of day.

From : http://immigration-law.com/
12/14/2011: Three Most Powerful Democrats Introduced in Senate Compromised Employment-Based/Family-Based Immigration Bill

Sen Chuck Schumer of New York, co-sponsored Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois and Sen. Leahy of Vermont, introduced yesterday S.1983 to eliminate the per-country numerical limitation for employment-based immigrants, to increase the per-country numerical limitation for family-sponsored immigrants, and for other reform. Obviously other reform includes relief of Irish which we discussed during last few days. It thus appears that this bill could be a bill to compromise H.R. 3012 and Irish relief. Read on. It thus appears that rather than introducing Irish relief bill, he added Irish E-3 visa and illegal Irish relief provision to H.R. 3012 which the House passes. Full text has yet to be made available. Stay tuned.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

KD-
I am getting only 930 PERM cases for EB2I PD2008 on trackitt? Not sure if we are applying same filter.
Can you please check again?

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Yes, today I am getting 930 too! hmmm....I don't know what happened. my apologies!

PS: Caught my mistake. I had selected all countries, all categories for 2008. my bad. Very sorry once again.

No reason to think that the demand destruction is permanent. Major reason of the DD was the great recession - which is a transient thing (hopefully). The other reason is that with the growth and opportunities in the home countries, potential immigrants from China/India/South Korea are going back - this seems like a more durable thing.
EB GC demand essentially follows the H1B demand. If H1B picks up then we should see a lagged effect in EB demand as well.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BBear123

Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

Curious to hear thoughts.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by BBear123

Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

Curious to hear thoughts.

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the word "demand" means something different in this context than in macro-economics. Here it means approved 140s that are pending for 485s. So the thought here is that a lot of that "demand" is destroyed for various reasons (layoffs, opportunities in home country or other countries, single-income households, etc.)

All, I am in a tricky situation. Sorry for posting it in this thread, but I need your advise. My employer has been one of those bloodsucking ones. I got current in Jan bulletin and sent a mail to HR asking for the filing of 485, etc. So far HR/employer (mine is not a consulting company, but a moderately large organization in India with 2-3 clients here in US), was thinking that my dates wont be current for atleast another year or so. This came as a shock to them and now they are trying to delay the filing process (hoping the dates would retrogress again in Feb bulletin). HR says that it will need approval from 2-3 people who are out for next couple of weeks, so they will start the internal approval process by first week of Jan and then send all details to the company attorney by end of Jan. Hence, they cant file for my AOS before Feb/Mar.

Is there a way out for me or am I screwed? Can I hire my own attorney to file AOS? If yes, would I need anything from my employer (I do have a scanned copy of the labor and I-140 approval). WHat will happen if my employer finds out I went behind theior backs to file the AOS?

Any help/advise is greatly welcome. I was so happy on Friday and now deeply depressed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by imdeng

No reason to think that the demand destruction is permanent. Major reason of the DD was the great recession - which is a transient thing (hopefully). The other reason is that with the growth and opportunities in the home countries, potential immigrants from China/India/South Korea are going back - this seems like a more durable thing.
EB GC demand essentially follows the H1B demand. If H1B picks up then we should see a lagged effect in EB demand as well.

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Ok that makes sense, thanks.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

the word "demand" means something different in this context than in macro-economics. Here it means approved 140s that are pending for 485s. So the thought here is that a lot of that "demand" is destroyed for various reasons (layoffs, opportunities in home country or other countries, single-income households, etc.)

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Alright that again makes sense. Thanks.

I think you need to distinguish between two "Demands" here

1. Reduction in demand for immigrant workers - This is the economic demand you are referring to and would depend on the part of economic cycle US is in. This would be reflected in the number of H1s and PERMs filed. For fiscal years 2008 and 2009 (filing years 2007 and 2008) the H1 cap was reached within a week where as in 2010 it took 9 months. This is also reflected in lower PERM filings for 2009 vs 2008 or 2007.

2. The demand destruction being discussed here is related but different. Here people are discussing that after filing PERM, what percentage of people dropped out of the GC process. This can be due to losing the job (due to bad economy), multiple PERMs (so you dont need to follow up one PERM if another through your spouse is current), increase in I-140 denial rate. As Teddy and others have pointed out there is already a 38% demand destruction built into assumptions, but given the fast movement some people (so far not me) think that the number could be higher than that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BBear123

Sorry I am newb and I am curious about demand destruction. In classical economic terms this refers to a permanent shift downwards. Any reason to think the perceived reduction in demand we see right now as permanent? There is the trend that there were reduced PERM approvals/filings during 2009 and there is the 2007 USCIS screwup that led to a lot of 485 filings but both of these seems transitory.

The last factor is change in demand due to reduced hiring during the past 3 years. This is not going to show up 2011-2012 as thats about when employers file for a green card for people they hire.

Curious to hear thoughts.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Yes, today I am getting 930 too! hmmm....I don't know what happened. my apologies!

PS: Caught my mistake. I had selected all countries, all categories for 2008. my bad. Very sorry once again.

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Thats fine KD we at least have some baseline data now for DD theory :). Also noticed that % PERMS denied for for EB2I PD2008 are much higher compared to PD2009. I have not looked for PD2010 yet.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by la_2002_ch

All, I am in a tricky situation. Sorry for posting it in this thread, but I need your advise. My employer has been one of those bloodsucking ones. I got current in Jan bulletin and sent a mail to HR asking for the filing of 485, etc. So far HR/employer (mine is not a consulting company, but a moderately large organization in India with 2-3 clients here in US), was thinking that my dates wont be current for atleast another year or so. This came as a shock to them and now they are trying to delay the filing process (hoping the dates would retrogress again in Feb bulletin). HR says that it will need approval from 2-3 people who are out for next couple of weeks, so they will start the internal approval process by first week of Jan and then send all details to the company attorney by end of Jan. Hence, they cant file for my AOS before Feb/Mar.

Is there a way out for me or am I screwed? Can I hire my own attorney to file AOS? If yes, would I need anything from my employer (I do have a scanned copy of the labor and I-140 approval). WHat will happen if my employer finds out I went behind theior backs to file the AOS?

Any help/advise is greatly welcome. I was so happy on Friday and now deeply depressed.

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You and only YOU can file your AOS application. A lawyer can file it on your behalf, but it is your application. All you need from the employer is an Employment verification letter. Talk to a good lawyer. He/she can help you to file AOS.

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Originally Posted by 10102007

You and only YOU can file your AOS application. A lawyer can file it on your behalf, but it is your application. All you need from the employer is an Employment verification letter. Talk to a good lawyer. He/she can help you to file AOS.

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Thx. Can the employer do anything if they find out I went behing their back to file the application? Not sure how will I get the EVD from them.

have started searching for immigration attorneys in my area. Hope something good comes out of this.... dont know what do people in "positions" get by screwing other people's lives and happines.. :(

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Yes, today I am getting 930 too! hmmm....I don't know what happened. my apologies!

PS: Caught my mistake. I had selected all countries, all categories for 2008. my bad. Very sorry once again.

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KD no worries man you made a great attempt. Sun thanks for catching the issue. Guys with this we are back to square 1. The Perm - I140 data does not show any evidence of special demand destruction in 2008.On another note HR3012 and its counterpart bills in the Senate are going strong. We still do not have sufficient intake to cater to HR3012 atleast a buffer. The 9 month move that happened for the Jan bulletin is probably powered by the sentiment around HR 3012 atleast in part.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by la_2002_ch

Thx. Can the employer do anything if they find out I went behing their back to file the application? Not sure how will I get the EVD from them.

have started searching for immigration attorneys in my area. Hope something good comes out of this.... dont know what do people in "positions" get by screwing other people's lives and happines.. :(

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I understand your anxiety. Don't worry. As always, all will end well. Don't just look for lawyers in your area. Look for good lawyers. You can talk to them by phone and send/receive documents by mail.

I'm not sure what the employer can or cannot do. But a lawyer should be able to bring your anxiety down. Talk to a good one. I've heard cases where people have used other documents in place of emp verification letter. But am personally not aware of the process. Not to repeat it over and over again - Talk to a good attorney.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by la_2002_ch

Thx. Can the employer do anything if they find out I went behing their back to file the application? Not sure how will I get the EVD from them.

have started searching for immigration attorneys in my area. Hope something good comes out of this.... dont know what do people in "positions" get by screwing other people's lives and happines.. :(

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Even if you file 485 yourself you need to get employment verification letter and my word of caution would be don't fight with your company .. try to resolve it amicably, make sure you keep your job and stay in US for next year.

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

I think you need to distinguish between two "Demands" here

1. Reduction in demand for immigrant workers - This is the economic demand you are referring to and would depend on the part of economic cycle US is in. This would be reflected in the number of H1s and PERMs filed. For fiscal years 2008 and 2009 (filing years 2007 and 2008) the H1 cap was reached within a week where as in 2010 it took 9 months. This is also reflected in lower PERM filings for 2009 vs 2008 or 2007.

2. The demand destruction being discussed here is related but different. Here people are discussing that after filing PERM, what percentage of people dropped out of the GC process. This can be due to losing the job (due to bad economy), multiple PERMs (so you dont need to follow up one PERM if another through your spouse is current), increase in I-140 denial rate. As Teddy and others have pointed out there is already a 38% demand destruction built into assumptions, but given the fast movement some people (so far not me) think that the number could be higher than that.

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38% seems pretty high but I suppose some approximations are necessary. Anecdotally (a.k.a straight up not how-ever-so statistically) I have not seen too many people who filed multiple perms and more cases where dependents were added to the application. Do you have a source for I-140 approval/denial stats? It looks like any data I can come across on the USCIS webpage is for E1X.

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Originally Posted by BBear123

38% seems pretty high but I suppose some approximations are necessary. Anecdotally (a.k.a straight up not how-ever-so statistically) I have not seen too many people who filed multiple perms and more cases where dependents were added to the application. Do you have a source for I-140 approval/denial stats? It looks like any data I can come across on the USCIS webpage is for E1X.

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Based on 'actual data' there is consensus at PERM-> I485 convertion ratio of 1 for EB2. In another words if there are approx. 28000 EB2/3IC PERM applications then those will result into approx. 28000 I485 EB2IC applications. Now this conversion factor includes factor of 38%. (IMO we should not really call this as demand destruction)
Due to extraordinary situation in 2008 some people on this forum ( like me ) believe that there may be some more DD on top of above. i.e PERM -> I485 conversion factor is less than 1 for PD2008.(We dont have concrete data to back this theory up yet so we are looking for some pointers to indirectly deduce some numbers)

See Teddy's post on first page, that explains the assumptions.
One thing to note is that 38% is not just the I140 denial rate. It is a single factor incorporating a person who has an approved EB2-IC PERM but does not eventually use a visa number. Easy way to understand is start with Spec's PERM-IC numbers for a particular financial year.
- The first assumption is EB2-IC to total PERM-IC ratio assumed to be 75%.
- Second assumption is a person not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. Lets say x%. This will include I-140 denial rate (Veni once had a figure of 20% or so), I-485 denial rate (negligible), multiple PERMs (unknown), job-loss (unknown).
- Third assumption is dependent ratio - 2.125 (slightly higher than 2 basically, everyone married-why suffer alone, some with kids)
The product of these three if assumed to be 1 gives a simple way to start with PERM-IC numbers and figure out I-485 demand.
.75*x*2.125 = 1 gives x = 63% implying a 37% number for people not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. So if you take 20% as I-140 denial rate then the rest 17% becomes reduction in demand due to multiple PERMs/job loss etc.

Teddy, do you think clarifying in your post that the second assumption of 38% is a combination of 3-4 factors would help ?

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Originally Posted by BBear123

38% seems pretty high but I suppose some approximations are necessary. Anecdotally (a.k.a straight up not how-ever-so statistically) I have not seen too many people who filed multiple perms and more cases where dependents were added to the application. Do you have a source for I-140 approval/denial stats? It looks like any data I can come across on the USCIS webpage is for E1X.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

See Teddy's post on first page, that explains the assumptions.
One thing to note is that 38% is not just the I140 denial rate. It is a single factor incorporating a person who has an approved EB2-IC PERM but does not eventually use a visa number. Easy way to understand is start with Spec's PERM-IC numbers for a particular financial year.
- The first assumption is EB2-IC to total PERM-IC ratio assumed to be 75%.
- Second assumption is a person not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. Lets say x%. This will include I-140 denial rate (Veni once had a figure of 20% or so), I-485 denial rate (negligible), multiple PERMs (unknown), job-loss (unknown).
- Third assumption is dependent ratio - 2.125 (slightly higher than 2 basically, everyone married-why suffer alone, some with kids)
The product of these three if assumed to be 1 gives a simple way to start with PERM-IC numbers and figure out I-485 demand.
.75*x*2.125 = 1 gives x = 63% implying a 37% number for people not using a visa number even with an approved PERM. So if you take 20% as I-140 denial rate then the rest 17% becomes reduction in demand due to multiple PERMs/job loss etc.

Teddy, do you think clarifying in your post that the second assumption of 38% is a combination of 3-4 factors would help ?

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Quoting 38% out of context can indeed be misleading. And let me say it again- Its not really demand destruction IMO. Its more of percentage figure arrived when we assumed PERM(EB2/3IC) -> I485(EB2IC) convertion ratio to be 1.