EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Spec,

Is there any data which would tell us how many EB2C downgrade each year? My question is -what's stopping majority EB2C from downgrading?

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There's no data as far as I know.

Early on, I think quite a few Chinese chased the best FAD, but it's not been consistent. They would interfile to EB3, then EB2 would become better, so they'd interfile back to EB2. The interfiling process takes time and they missed the window by the time USCIS actioned it .

For China, in the last 48 months:

EB2 better FAD than EB3 - 40%
EB3 better FAD than EB2 - 60%

It might change, since EB3-C FAD is now quite some way ahead of EB2. EB3 has been ahead of EB2 for 9 months now - since October 2017 - the equal longest run.

Some may not have the opportunity, some may be prepared to wait it out in one category or the other.

TBH, the Chinese situation is difficult to discern - they have their own forums (in Chinese) and the translations are imperfect, even if you spend the time finding and following them. I haven't looked in a long time.

I should add that all the Chinese cases I saw were with the same Company and the EB3 I-140 was using the same PERM for the same position as the EB2 I-140.

This may be very different to some Indian reverse porting, where many may already have an EB3 I-140, but with a different Company, for different responsibilities and based on a different PERM to the EB2.

Perhaps one or other needs a different name, since they are completely different situations.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

It is what the rule says, with the country quota which the hard reality you are talking about 11 years wait. The group extrapolated the current wait time came up with the hyperbole of 70 years. You cannot take an isolated case of person from Brazil, Uganda or Pakistan and present your case as unfair which is not going to fly for people.


You have EAD, I don't have one, Another person after being here for 9 years got his H1 renewal rejected. There are many hard realities around. So instead of calling my statement nonsense you can back up your statement with real facts to counter what I said. That way we can have an intelligent and sensible debates. I will not talk bad of trackitt as they provide a great avenue for sharing lot of information.


I am saying if you are with March 2010 PD, please don't propagate inaccurate and outright lies of information to people with PD after. A positive information gives hope to the people waiting.

Now for 2013 EB3 they don't have any information. So that doesn't mean you take the most pessimistic case and propagate it as the absolute fact and spread the misery. A sensible assumption would be to present a possibility of what is the range of the best case all the way to the worst case.


I will walk the talk I mentioned for the example your provided for EB2 2013.


For the last 8 years we have about 216,000 primaries in Eb2. You have to account for about 30% of duplicate applications, porter etc, which would bring down this number to around 150,000. USCIS uses an average of 1 dependent for EB2 filers. So we have an educated prediction of about 300,000 people in EB2 till April 2018 for India which would be about 35,000 people a year.


The worst scenario => 2900 a year would result in taking 12 years to clear 2009, 12 years 2010, 12 years 2011, 12 years in 2012. He don't have to worry as he would be most probably wont need it, by the time his PD in 2013 comes.

The pessimistic scenario => 5000 a year would result in 8 years 2009, would take 32-35 years for 2013

The reasonable possible scenario (Starting FY 2018) => 12000 a year would result in 3 years 2009, would take close to 10 years from now. However lot of people by this time realize that EB3 is going to be faster, so 2012-13 guys will start to downgrade and get a faster date. This thins the original queue as well.


However the scenario I am seeing is for both EB2 and 3 together for 2018, 2019 and 2020 is 20-25 K visa's. The demand from ROW is definitely going to be low while this admin is in power till Jan 2021. We can only predict what is in the near future.

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Please move to trackit; you will have more takers there. See you.

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Originally Posted by smuggymba

Please move to trackit; you will have more takers there. See you.

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Please, if the moderators have any difficulty in the way I post, they will let me know. If you have some valid information which can counter my points you please post them.

You have the option to ignore my post if you don't have anything to counter it.

If EB2-I and EB3-I move in parallel, How will the unused visas be managed assuming that there would be low demand in EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW & slow Interviews.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Please, if the moderators have any difficulty in the way I post, they will let me know. If you have some valid information which can counter my points you please post them.

You have the option to ignore my post if you don't have anything to counter it.

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Smuggymba has been around a while and has seen this drama, so lets cut him some slack.

I appreciate you sticking to data while supporting your arguments. That's a good way to avoid personal commentary.

Let's keep it that way.

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Smuggymba has been around a while and has seen this drama, so lets cut him some slack.

I appreciate you sticking to data while supporting your arguments. That's a good way to avoid personal commentary.

Let's keep it that way.

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

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Thank you for clarifying the same. I am in the forum to see the view points of different people in the journey to GC and how their opinions are formulated.
So just because I am waiting for 10 years with a 2011 PD, I feel it wrong that I give a unsubstantiated statement to another EB3 guy with 2015 PD "Oh, I waited for 9 years already, so you have to wait minimum of 10 years".

My calculations can be taken as my initial statement. I have been branded eternal optimist in another forum, but I always try to back up the possibility with the real numbers. It is more like an array of possibility.

So when I present this array, I intentionally pick an optimistic snapshot with the explanation why it is possible.

Now coming back to the point, if based on the demand, EB3 I can clear 10-15 K numbers in FY 18/19, it has a high possibility to go well into 2011. I also use the H4-EAD number which was put at around 84K as per December 2017 statistics, to get the minimum number of active primaries.


So using H4EAD as reference the exact number of Primaries from 2008-2017 is between 84,000 to 302,000 for both EB2 and 3 India.

So the range of actual filers will be a between 168000 - 604000 if we include 1 dependent per primary as specified in the last document.

So if I calculate the average number of filers per year for the last 11 years, I would say we average from 15000- 55000 people primaries and dependents for both (2 and 3) waiting.


Now we have the base of 6000 (2+3) visas a year to a potential of 25000 (arbitrary number for unused visas) a year.

We have seen the saving potential on Meryll investments website, use the same logic and put these numbers into calculation we get a range which can make sense for every body.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Eb3 and EB2 India will go hand in hand for a while, may be till first quarter end of 19. Then it has to be EB3 all the way. The numbers don't lie.

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Aceman,

What do think about EB1 India? I rely a lot on your numbers.

I mean is there a chance hey can atleast progess a bit to somehwre between 2012 to 2018 in this year (before Oct VB)

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Originally Posted by SonaMoni77

Aceman,

What do think about EB1 India? I rely a lot on your numbers.

I mean is there a chance hey can atleast progess a bit to somehwre between 2012 to 2018 in this year (before Oct VB)

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For all practical purpose there is no body in the EB1 queue before 2015. Not discounting some isolated EB2/3 guys who did masters here along with similar people who move outside the country and came back as Managers and now qualifies for EB1.

So July bulletin at the very minimum should reach 1 Jan 2016.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

For all practical purpose there is no body in the EB1 queue before 2015. Not discounting some isolated EB2/3 guys who did masters here along with similar people who move outside the country and came back as Managers and now qualifies for EB1.

So July bulletin at the very minimum should reach 1 Jan 2016.

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Wow! I am in 2014 priority date for EB2->EB1B . That will be so awesome...Thank u Aceman...u r great!

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Originally Posted by SonaMoni77

Wow! I am in 2014 priority date for EB2->EB1B . That will be so awesome...Thank u Aceman...u r great!

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Hold your horses sir, I expect the dates to move strictly on the basis of the numbers on January 2018 PI with my reasoning for the same. It is purely under the control of CO.

I need to give a disclaimer that I had previously predicted that FY 17 EB3 I would end up with a March-April 2007 PD based on the number crunching. Not only it ended up in October 2006 but did not move at all for the first quarter of FY 18.

I have to admit that EB1 for the rest of FY2018 has been bugging me, since movement has not been mentioned.

CO in his presentation showed that unused EB3 visas Fall Up to EB1

Attachment 1342
Only when demand from EB1 has been satisfied can visa numbers Fall Down to EB2.

If EB2 wishes to benefit from any unused EB3 visas, then a prerequisite seems to be that EB1-India and EB1-China would first need to be made Current to encompass all possible demand in EB1.

Due to interview delays, it's possible, despite a large numbers of pending applications, that the demand in EB1 does not materialize within the FY and the visas can then Fall Down to EB2.

On the other hand, if CO does not make all of EB1 Current, then by his own logic, he cannot give any spare EB3 visas to EB2.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

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Makes it more difficult and possible for kids becoming ineligible to apply for 485 if they age out. So sad

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I have to admit that EB1 for the rest of FY2018 has been bugging me, since movement has not been mentioned.

CO in his presentation showed that unused EB3 visas Fall Up to EB1

Attachment 1342
Only when demand from EB1 has been satisfied can visa numbers Fall Down to EB2.

If EB2 wishes to benefit from any unused EB3 visas, then a prerequisite seems to be that EB1-India and EB1-China would first need to be made Current to encompass all possible demand in EB1.

Due to interview delays, it's possible, despite a large numbers of pending applications, that the demand in EB1 does not materialize within the FY and the visas can then Fall Down to EB2.

On the other hand, if CO does not make all of EB1 Current, then by his own logic, he cannot give any spare EB3 visas to EB2.

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Thanks for information Spec.

Unless there is a change in process from new Administration. Based on Previous Administration's Executive Order, CO is obligated to use the Spillover within the current FY.
With the reference to this Executive order , filing dates are published in every Visa Bulletin.

Having said that, If EB1 is not current, he might be obligated by law ( unless it has been changed) to apply unused numbers to EB2-I.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

On the other hand, if CO does not make all of EB1 Current, then by his own logic, he cannot give any spare EB3 visas to EB2.

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If CO applies the same logic, Shouldn't he make EB3 current before moving the visas to EB1?

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Originally Posted by march1612

Thanks for information Spec.

Unless there is a change in process from new Administration. Based on Previous Administration's Executive Order, CO is obligated to use the Spillover within the current FY.
With the reference to this Executive order , filing dates are published in every Visa Bulletin.

Having said that, If EB1 is not current, he might be obligated by law ( unless it has been changed) to apply unused numbers to EB2-I.

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Well, if CO doesn't think there are enough spare visas to make EB1 Current, then he's not going to move the EB2-I FAD forward either.

If a case isn't current in the VB, it can't be approved.

Moving the date for the last month probably wouldn't help that much, because there's no time to send out RFEs, receive the reply and adjudicate the case. I'm not seeing much RFE action for 2009 cases at present.

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Originally Posted by Hyperion

If CO applies the same logic, Shouldn't he make EB3 current before moving the visas to EB1?

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Fair question - I deserved that.

EB3-I can't have any demand beyond April 2008 that can be realized in the FY. Tt would be beneficial if the FAD for EB3-I is pushed much further so that more than enough cases can be approved next year. We can't see a repeat, caused yet again by not moving Cut Off Dates early enough. I don't see that CO has much choice but to advance EB3-I, even if he pulls it back at the beginning of FY2019, when initially only limited numbers are available.

EB1 is different. There's potentially loads of demand between the current FAD of 01JAN12 and March 2018 when the FAD was last Current for EB1-IC. It probably more like March 2017 for most cases to cause demand, considering processing times.

EB1-IC were retrogressed because they had too much demand. The process, as outlined, requires that demand has a chance to be satisfied first.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Fair question - I deserved that.

EB3-I can't have any demand beyond April 2008 that can be realized in the FY. Tt would be beneficial if the FAD for EB3-I is pushed much further so that more than enough cases can be approved next year. We can't see a repeat, caused yet again by not moving Cut Off Dates early enough. I don't see that CO has much choice but to advance EB3-I, even if he pulls it back at the beginning of FY2019, when initially only limited numbers are available.

EB1 is different. There's potentially loads of demand between the current FAD of 01JAN12 and March 2018 when the FAD was last Current for EB1-IC. It probably more like March 2017 for most cases to cause demand, considering processing times.

EB1-IC were retrogressed because they had too much demand. The process, as outlined, requires that demand has a chance to be satisfied first.

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So, the only source for EB2-I advancement is unused numbers from EB2-ROW. Not sure how many unused numbers are expected to be available in July.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

EB1 is different. There's potentially loads of demand between the current FAD of 01JAN12 and March 2018 when the FAD was last Current for EB1-IC. It probably more like March 2017 for most cases to cause demand, considering processing times.

EB1-IC were retrogressed because they had too much demand. The process, as outlined, requires that demand has a chance to be satisfied first.

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Spec,
Based on the latest pending inventory EB1I only has 4k of inventory. Not sure why you say "loads of demand" ? Don't you think that a demand of 4k might get fulfilled by the SO from EB1ROW ?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Well, if CO doesn't think there are enough spare visas to make EB1 Current, then he's not going to move the EB2-I FAD forward either.

If a case isn't current in the VB, it can't be approved.

Moving the date for the last month probably wouldn't help that much, because there's no time to send out RFEs, receive the reply and adjudicate the case. I'm not seeing much RFE action for 2009 cases at present.

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It's possible that CO is moving EB2I to Mar'09 solely based on EB2ROW spillover he is anticipating for this FY. He either doesn't think a) that EB3->Eb1->EB2 route is possible this FY or b) doesn't want to calculate that just yet. For any (already pending AOS) case to be comfortably greened this FY - RFE needs to be issued by Jul mid I guess.

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Originally Posted by march1612

So, the only source for EB2-I advancement is unused numbers from EB2-ROW. Not sure how many unused numbers are expected to be available in July.

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Unfortunately that is what is there for EB2 I as of July. However all is not lost, based on the RFE's reported by EB2 people for 2009. Most of them are Nebraska though, so there is a possibility of some Eb2 I usage.

I am optimistic that EB2 I will get much more numbers it received in the last 3 years.

I dont mind at all Aceman. I understand you are predicting since I asked you. I am ok either ways. Worst case Oct VB will let me file my AOS , so I am honestly fine. But I salute you guys optimism, calculative power and glad to be an audience.

Guru's , I am a newbie to calculate. Kindly correct me if I am wrong.Calculation is based on April 2018 inventory for 2018 FY.

EB1

54729-42596 (Oct-Jan)=12133
42596-12433 (Jan-Apr)=30163

Visa Available :40000-12133-30163= -2296 additional visa's needed to clear the backlog , clearly shows No spill over from EB1

EB2
48236-39686 (Oct-Jan)=8550
39686-24616 (Jan-Apr)=15070

Visa available:=40,000-8550-15070=16380 visa's available

EB3:
24639-17157(Oct-Jan)=7482
17157-8293(Jan-Apr)=14264

Visa Available:=40,000-7482-14264=18254 visa's available

EB4
2089-1480(Oct-Jan)=609
1480-1142(Jan-Apr)=338

Visa available:10,000-609-338=9053 visa's available

EB5:
1203-804(Oct-Jan)=399
804-615(Jan-Apr)=189

Visa Available:10,000-399-189=9412 visa's available

Total unused Visa's available: 53099-2296=50803 unused as of April 2018.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Spec,
Based on the latest pending inventory EB1I only has 4k of inventory. Not sure why you say "loads of demand" ? Don't you think that a demand of 4k might get fulfilled by the SO from EB1ROW ?

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Even as far back as January, CO reported that EB1-I had used 7k. That had probably risen to around 10k by the time retrogression was imposed. At that time, EB1C had already used 4.5k.

Retrogression was imposed to allow enough visas during the rest of the FY for Countries that had not already reached the 7% limit.

It's impossible to tell what the EB1 demand is from the April Inventory. It's at least 4k from India plus another 2k from China for cases not at Field Offices. Some interviews in EB1 have been carried out since retrogression. Policy dictates those cases be returned to TSC for final approval when visas become available. You can also add any CP cases, which for China may be significant. In the 6 months before retrogression, EB1-C used 1.5k EB1 CP visas.

I don't know how many spare visas people are expecting from EB3. I suspect most people think it's a figure far higher than reality will be.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Smuggymba has been around a while and has seen this drama, so lets cut him some slack.

I appreciate you sticking to data while supporting your arguments. That's a good way to avoid personal commentary.

Let's keep it that way.

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

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Easier said than done, Q. :(

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Originally Posted by march1612

Guru's , I am a newbie to calculate. Kindly correct me if I am wrong.Calculation is based on April 2018 inventory for 2018 FY.

EB1

54729-42596 (Oct-Jan)=12133
42596-12433 (Jan-Apr)=30163

Visa Available :40000-12133-30163= -2296 additional visa's needed to clear the backlog , clearly shows No spill over from EB1

EB2
48236-39686 (Oct-Jan)=8550
39686-24616 (Jan-Apr)=15070

Visa available:=40,000-8550-15070=16380 visa's available

EB3:
24639-17157(Oct-Jan)=7482
17157-8293(Jan-Apr)=14264

Visa Available:=40,000-7482-14264=18254 visa's available

EB4
2089-1480(Oct-Jan)=609
1480-1142(Jan-Apr)=338

Visa available:10,000-609-338=9053 visa's available

EB5:
1203-804(Oct-Jan)=399
804-615(Jan-Apr)=189

Visa Available:10,000-399-189=9412 visa's available

Total unused Visa's available: 53099-2296=50803 unused as of April 2018.

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You can't really use the USCIS Inventory from April 2018. It's not like for like with previous reports because it no longer includes Field Office cases.
Also the USCIS Inventory only deals with AOS cases and doesn't include CP cases. Some categories and Countries have have very large CP usage. EB5 is almost all CP.

The best information we have is from CO's recent PP presentation.

That tells us that in the period October 2017 to March 2018 (H1), the following number of visas had been used:

This is basically a repeat of what I posted in post #2901

First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

All Visa Issuances - October 2017 to March 2018

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total --- Left H2
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ---- 10,920
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ---- 20,448
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ---- 21,567
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ----- 4,926
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ----- 3,922

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ---- 61,783

DOS Figures above match previously published data.

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Originally Posted by gten20

Easier said than done, Q. :(

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I have been there ... hence the wisdom of hindsight :)

Let's correct it --- do not TRY NOT TO postpone anything waiting for a GC.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

EB3-I can't have any demand beyond April 2008 that can be realized in the FY. Tt would be beneficial if the FAD for EB3-I is pushed much further so that more than enough cases can be approved next year. We can't see a repeat, caused yet again by not moving Cut Off Dates early enough. I don't see that CO has much choice but to advance EB3-I, even if he pulls it back at the beginning of FY2019, when initially only limited numbers are available.

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Hi Spec,

Being tired of watching and seeing EB3 visas continuously allocated to other categories, I finally moved to EB2I with a PD of Feb 2009. It's with the same company so either category will work for me. I have a feeling that date may be current for EB2I and EB3I at the same time.

Based on your statement, it seems EB3-I needs to really move forward and can probably catch up or surpass EB2I even in this FY. No wonder CO did not give any date for EB3I. Based on the I-140 data that was released, I am certain the bottom is going to fall off EB3I.

But then EB3s and EB1s all need interviews which cannot give them GCs this FY. Can CO use this logic to justify his movement of EB2I WITHOUT moving EB1I? After all, they are the only ones who do not need interviews. Otherwise there will surely be wastage.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I have been there ... hence the wisdom of hindsight :)

Let's correct it --- do not TRY NOT TO postpone anything waiting for a GC.

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Don't let GC hold you back; there's not a whole lot to lose except a dollar amount.

I'm a little lucky with EAD and because of that my wife is working (she started her MBA when she was on H4). We bought our house few months before getting EAD (On H1) and the job I have now is probably the one I've had even if I had GC, so not much impact other than left a Sr Manager promotion opportunity last month and travel pain on AP.

That's being said, I have friends who have bought houses/settled down on H1 with a PD of 2013. Some, however, are not willing to settle down because of this uncertainty. The way I explain to them is there's a lot to gain and not much to lose to improve the quality of life.

Let's say life is uncertain with PD of 2013/14; you can still settle down in your city of choice; the worst that can happen is you will have to sell your house at 10-15% loss. Your belongings will ship with you if you have to go to India. Cars can be sold pretty quickly with little lost. So, you get to enjoy life and the worst that can happen is you lose 30-60K, and it's just money. Imagine the quality of life/enjoyment/memories you'll make in that time.

I'm on AP on still like to travel for vacations despite the pain associated with which flight you get to select and which country might slap you with a transit visa (Mexico visa was a pain; you have to apply for tourist visa if you have AP and mexican embassy is not the easiest to deal with). When we go to India, we still stop in Europe for a quick vacation (again, not Germany/Lufthansa etc) but it's doable.

so, don't let GC hold you back. Try to do what you would do if you had GC

Just my Thu morning deep thoughts :)

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

Hi Spec,

Being tired of watching and seeing EB3 visas continuously allocated to other categories, I finally moved to EB2I with a PD of Feb 2009. It's with the same company so either category will work for me. I have a feeling that date may be current for EB2I and EB3I at the same time.

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Quite possibly.

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Based on your statement, it seems EB3-I needs to really move forward and can probably catch up or surpass EB2I even in this FY. No wonder CO did not give any date for EB3I. Based on the I-140 data that was released, I am certain the bottom is going to fall off EB3I.

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I said last year that the EB3-I dates needed to be moved forward to allow enough time for cases to be ready for adjudication in FY2018 and avoid the situation we are now in.

I blame USCIS for for not allowing Filing Dates to be used. CO has been too conservative, but he has to tread a thin line with FAD because that date also allows approval of cases within the Cut Off Date. He also has very poor information from USCIS on upcoming demand.

Filing Dates were introduced specifically to allow filing and inventory control without approval.

CO now has a chance to subvert USCIS actions. Moving the FAD for EB3-I is essentially the same as the Filing date for the rest of the FY. No new applications can possibly be adjudicated in the time left in the FY and he has no worries of too many EB3-I approvals being made. USCIS cannot refuse to honor the Final Action Date.

I hope CO sticks it to USCIS and moves the dates for EB3-I a long way (several years). He can retrogress the FAD for October 2018, when the new allocation kicks in. CO will then have some idea of potential demand from EB-I in the future.

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But then EB3s and EB1s all need interviews which cannot give them GCs this FY. Can CO use this logic to justify his movement of EB2I WITHOUT moving EB1I? After all, they are the only ones who do not need interviews. Otherwise there will surely be wastage.

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Not all remaining EB1 need interviews. The April Inventory suggests that up to 5.6k EB1-India & China AOS cases exist that do not need an interview. In addition, there are likely a reasonable number of EB1-China CP cases that could be adjudicated.

I think this subject is exhausted - I won't comment on it again.

If Visa Bulletin is not out by tomorrow EOD, I think it is fair enough to assume there might be some bad news for EB2-I. EB2-ROW approvals are catching up with the supply.

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Originally Posted by redsox2009

If Visa Bulletin is not out by tomorrow EOD, I think it is fair enough to assume there might be some bad news for EB2-I. EB2-ROW approvals are catching up with the supply.

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just saw on trackitt a person with pd 9-apr-2009 got rfe NSC. both NSC and TSC are consistent(dates) with RFEs

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I hope CO sticks it to USCIS and moves the dates for EB3-I a long way (several years). He can retrogress the FAD for October 2018, when the new allocation kicks in. CO will then have some idea of potential demand from EB-I in the future.

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Yes, I really hope he does that which will teach USCIS a lesson. USCIS made the Filing Dates null and void making life difficult for CO, so he will have no option to move FAD and do what he used to do before when there was only 1 date. Giving USCIS any authority in the VB is never a good idea.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I think this subject is exhausted - I won't comment on it again.

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Thanks for the summary. I agree we have beaten this horse to death. Let's see what the future VBs say!

After a lot of thought process based on the data and feedback, I kind of came to conclusion that CO wants to move EB2-I and EB3-I hand in hand to reduce porting and better visa usage. He will stick with 2009 dates.

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Originally Posted by march1612

After a lot of thought process based on the data and feedback, I kind of came to conclusion that CO wants to move EB2-I and EB3-I hand in hand to reduce porting and better visa usage. He will stick with 2009 dates.

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Thanks Oraklebaba :o

Thanks Oraklebaba :)

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

just saw on trackitt a person with pd 9-apr-2009 got rfe NSC. both NSC and TSC are consistent(dates) with RFEs

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So, the chance of CO doing better than his own predictions looks high, isn't it?

May 2010 / December 2010 for 2018 EB2 / EB3 India - a good dream to ponder on :-)

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Originally Posted by AceMan

So, the chance of CO doing better than his own predictions looks high, isn't it?

May 2010 / December 2010 for 2018 EB2 / EB3 India - a good dream to ponder on :-)

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Are you serious OR are you being sarcastic ?

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Are you serious OR are you being sarcastic ?

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A very serious wish. I don't do sarcasm with dates.

Looking at the RFE's for EB2 I, it has a potential to go well into 2009, so add some optimistic ingredient to try and push the dates further.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

So, the chance of CO doing better than his own predictions looks high, isn't it?

May 2010 / December 2010 for 2018 EB2 / EB3 India - a good dream to ponder on :-)

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You are missing the wood for the trees bro.

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http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ll=1#post59602

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If you see the slide in the above post by @spectator, it is very clear that the SO will be utilized by EB1 before any remnants can fall down to EB2. So, unless CO decides to side step the Rule that he has himself quoted and favor EB2, I don't see how EB2I can advance more than its quota of 2800 in this FY or even the next FY. There simply is not enough EB3 SO to clear out EB3I and EB1 and then fall down to EB2. By the start of next FY, CO will have advanced EB3I far out enough to generate sufficient demand to soak up the ALL EB3 SO. I see EB3I being ahead of EB2I till the existing unfiled EB2I and EB3I PERM's are cleared. Certainly there is some substance in the Duplicate and Multiple PERM's argument, but it does nothing to help SO in EB3, which I am afraid may not be more than 10K Per year even with all the MAGA mania going on in USCIS.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by AceMan

A very serious wish. I don't do sarcasm with dates.

Looking at the RFE's for EB2 I, it has a potential to go well into 2009, so add some optimistic ingredient to try and push the dates further.

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I have gotten RFE 3 times now and dates have not moved to Jan 2009. This time being the third time. Getting RFE does mot mean that date will get current.

The dates may love upto May 2009 but your hopes of moving to 2010 are beyond strech.