Quote:
Originally Posted by ksur23
That's what i noticed here in this form and trackitt. I used to visit another website and there if you ask any question you will notice people screaming at you and ask for donations.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ksur23
That's what i noticed here in this form and trackitt. I used to visit another website and there if you ask any question you will notice people screaming at you and ask for donations.
The figures, with some more detail, are also available here on the forum.Quote:
Originally Posted by ksur23
My personal opinion is that I think it would be more accurate to say, x amount more approvals this FY are required.
The blog post does not appear to account for those approvals already made in October/November 2013. I think the numbers presented therefore underestimate the total approvals required this FY to reach the Cut Off dates mentioned.
The actual number required to reach a Cut Off date of 01MAR09 is probably more like 18-20k plus any further porting cases from EB3 who already have an I-485 pending less cases that fall through to next year.
With the possibility of large Fall Across from EB2-WW, over 20k total approvals for EB2-I are possible.
I would start to hesitate about any movement much beyond March 2009, at least until I can better understand what EB2-WW and EB1 might do in the second half of the FY.
Check this post too...it considers the visas allocated for FY14 till Feb'14.Quote:
Originally Posted by ksur23
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5804#post45804
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec, you mean to say PD max movement will be March 2009 in FY 2014?
Welcome back Spec! Good to see you back, didn't think you were coming back this time. Look forward to your calculations and predictions for this year's movement.
I think March is on the optimistic side of things, that's what I have gathered from the ongoing analysis on where the dates might end up this year. With so many factors still unclear it is hard to say, let us wait another month or two to find out how they will be calibrating movement. Good luck to you Surya.Quote:
Originally Posted by surya1975
I know there are plenty of us who have a chance of breaking through this year, if medical tests are indeed to be renewed, I wonder what impact this will have on date movement.
Thank you Triplet...! my PD is 6/3/09. I think I have to wait one more FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by triplet
I love this site. All seniors answers help a lot to get relief from GC/job tensions and also help to plan future.
Saw this on oh-law firm website. Waiting for comments from the experts here.
04/28/2014: Unofficial Prediction of EB Visa Cut-Off Dates Ahead
According to the AILA, the following are the State Department's prediction for EB visa date movement for the rest of the FY 2014. It is just a rough prediction and the actual dates can turn out to be a little different:
EB-2 India: As we reported a number of times, the cut-date is likely to move forward in either August or September to either January 1, 2008 or any date in 2008 in order to prevent waste of unused EB-2 numbers.
EB-3: Worldwide EB-3 can even move backward as early as May or June 2014
EB-3: China may also move backward as early as May or June 2014 probably caused by high down grade demand
Beware.
Thanks gcpursuit. There could be other things ... but one thing that quickly catches my eye is EB2I prediction. I believe the date has to move much farther than Jan 1 2008. Possibly 1 year ahead of that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
Thanks for your inputs!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
"Any date in 2008" could be 12/31/2008 too.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
Even 15K Allocation to EB2I in FY 2014 should take the dates beyond 1/1/2008 according to calculations done here.
This is not a kind of news one would expect from AILA. it is obviously that dates will dates will move in either Aug or Sept ... or any date in 2008 .
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5804#post45804
above link says there will be 21K SO, if its true, will the cut off be April 1st 2009?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec any comments from your side? Post update from CO with AILA?Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
One lawyer says:
#DOS states there will be no movement in #EB-2 dates until July & demand for #EB-3 has increased, so no progression in visa dates for now.
https://twitter.com/lawspeak/statuse...10725642285057
I have no idea of original source.
If it means that there will be a movement in July, then it's a good news. Most people are rooting for August.
I go away for a few days and it all kicks off!Quote:
Originally Posted by sairam09
I need to look at what has been said and published and then I will reply, probably tomorrow sometime.
In the meantime, here's some more comprehensive reporting than the Oh site.
CILawgroup (probably the most comprehensive, since it also mentions FB.
WSM
ILW Blog
PS to Q.
I am having some difficulty accessing the Calculations thread while signed on - it is hanging on the redirection. I can access it (sort of) by replying to a post, then signing on when asked, but I still can't read the thread while signed on.
Spec - I am sorry ... I have caused whatever this is. I was fiddling with some php settings and must have screwed up things. Let me look into it.
p.s. Fixed it i guess. Forgot to include directory path in quotes in php.ini. But php is quite forgiving. It runs as long as it can with errors!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
No problem. I just wanted to let you know in case it was affecting other people as well.
I'm glad you were able to identify the cause and rectify it.
It's all working correctly for me now.
Thanks for the swift resolution.
When CO says that EB5 may retrogress then we can be sure that no SO from EB5. In fact EB4 spillover might be consumed by EB5. My take, we get 3k from EB4 as some of the EB4 spillover will be consumed by EB5.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
-----------------
EB1 would yield some spillover but the usage is higher than previous year. Last year EB1 used 40k and the remaining (most of the excess from FB) came to EB2. Any takes on the number... may be we get 1k from EB1.
-----------------
I somehow feel that CO has not factored in the low PERM approvals. Nobody is sure about the EB2WW numbers. In fact the recent surge in PERM certifications makes this very very dynamic. My take would be that EB2WW would consume 27k and remaining comes to EB2I. We can expect 10k (7k + 3k excess from FB). Any opinions ?
----------------
EB2I might get 3k+1k+10k = 14k spillover. (17.5k total)
----------------
With 6k already consumed, we might have 11.5k remaining. That would be good to clear demand until mid Dec 2008. It depends on CO as to where he puts the dates at.
----------------
My gut feeling Jan-Feb 2009
---------------
There is no provision in law for EB5 to use spare visas from EB4.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Spare visas from EB4 (and EB5) Fall Up directly to EB1.Quote:
(4) Certain special immigrants. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , 2/ and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .
Quote:
(1) Priority workers. - Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraphs (4) and (5), to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):
Post CO's comments with AILA. Still I believe EB2-I will get the sufficient no of visas to move the PDs into CY2009.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
Here is updated version of my document:
The expectation that EB1 will remain current should not be a surprise, even to those who think EB1 usage is high this year.Quote:
Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based
Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.
EB-1. This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year. Also, it is too early in the fiscal year to be able to determine how many unused EB-1 visa numbers there will be to “drop down” into the EB-2 category.
EB1 has around 43k visas plus any additional Fall Up from EB4 and EB5. Even if EB5 does not contribute any Fall Up, EB4 would contribute around 4k if use were similar to last year.
I don’t think many people think EB1 is capable of using more than 47k – the amount required to force retrogression for EB1.
No surprise here. I don’t think any one believes EB2-ROW will use anywhere near their allocation this year. The main question would be how much Fall Across from EB2-ROW might be available to EB2-India.Quote:
EB-2 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.
This is no surprise to me and I have previously forecast that retrogression may be necessary for EB3-ROW.Quote:
EB-3 Rest of World (ROW). This category has seen increased demand over the past few months (due to the significant movements) and it is unlikely that there will be forward movement in the short term. In fact, if demand continues at its current pace, there may be a retrogression as early as June 2014. Retrogression is possible for the last quarter of fiscal year 2014 (Jul-Sep 2014) and this is a call for all EB-3 ROW applicants who are current to file their I-485s as soon as possible.
As it says, use by EB2-China who are downgrading has increased demand for EB3-China. In addition, no individual Country can have a Cut Off Date ahead of the Worldwide date for ROW. If EB3-ROW retrogress, EB3-China must also retrogress to that date.Quote:
EB-3 China. As a result of many EB-2 China applicants “downgrading” to EB-3 it is expected that EB-3 China will see some retrogression over the next month or two.
What this means for EB3-India, is that there is virtually no chance of spare Fall Across visas in EB3. EB3-India will move very slowly for the remainder of the FY.
Should retrogression of EB5-China be necessary, it means EB5 will use their entire 10.6k allocation and no Fall Up to EB1 will be available.Quote:
EB-5 China. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is high and a cutoff date may be introduced in August or September. Retrogression for EB-5 China is “inevitable” given the high number of EB-5 pending applications for Chinese nationals.
CO has mentioned the possibility before and it has not been necessary to date. That may still be the case this year as well.
As of November 1, 2013, State Dept. provided the following statistical information regarding active applications at the National Visa Center - total 4,748:
• 966 cases have priority dates in 2011 (20.35%);
• 2,969 cases have priority dates in 2012 (62.53%); and
• 813 cases have priority dates in 2013 (17.12%).
I note no other article has mentioned the 5,000 figure, so I take that with a very large pinch of salt. In fact, I would say it appears erroneous.Quote:
EB-2 India. This is the major headline from Mr. Oppenheim’s comments – EB-2 India is likely to move forward to January 1, 2008 during the August or (more likely) September Visa Bulletin. This movement will aim to utilize all of the available visa numbers for the fiscal year that may be unused by other categories (possibly 5,000 or more, but fewer compared to prior years).
I will say that January 1, 2008 seems an extraordinarily early Cut off Date to be mentioning, even for someone as conservative as CO. I do wonder whether there is a misunderstanding from the AILA representatives present.
The previous update to this document (AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Nov. 27, 2013) in November 2013 mentioned a return to around December 2008 in August/September 2014.
Even increased EB1 use, allied to complete use of the EB5 allocation, would not be sufficient to move the dates back that far (Jan 2008) in my opinion.
Another variable would be porting cases. Only those who already have an I-485 pending stand any chance of approval in an August /September time frame. That really means:
a) Cases with a PD of July 2007 or earlier who have interfiled since dates retrogressed until they move forward again.
b) New cases submitted up to November 2013 when dates were last current but who were not approved in the last window.
Another variable is EB2-WW use. Unless, a very special effort is made to process PERM certified cases beyond March 2014 through to I-485 approval, it is difficult to see how the date could go back that far.
Finally, there is the question of EB2-I use to date. Opinions vary, but I use a more aggressive figure than most.
I don’t believe I indulge in wishful thinking – in fact I tend to err on the pessimistic side compared to most other people.
Even I would say a fairly late 2008 Cut Off Date is far more likely, even in a poor scenario.
what could be the EB3 row yearly total from 2009 to 2012(or till 2013 august) ?
is it possible to subtract yearly eb2row approvals from perm approvals and arrive at approximate eb3-ROW yearly totals ?
looking at the eb2 row yearly approvals and perm approvals for last 5 years, the eb3row total is < 30k from 2k9 to now, is my guesstimate or am way too off ?
Thanks Spec!
Thank You Spec!If you predict late 2008 then it should move around Jan 2009 as you are the most Conservative. AILA might have misunderstood what CO said.Is there any other way to communicate with CO and present him some real time nos?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for the information. Before posting I was not clear about this. I thought of asking the question but then assumed that EB4 spillover will go to EB5. Thanks again.
I was unable to get to the threads right after I upgraded to Firefox 29 and I thought it might have been Firefox causing the issue. They are working now with Firefox 29.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Apologies for the off topic post.
civilengineer,Quote:
Originally Posted by civilengineer
I too upgraded to Firefox 29 last night.
I thought I would have to revert to 28 since I am not a fan of what they have done with Australis. To my personal taste, they couldn't have made it more ugly and I lost functionality by usability.
Fortunately, I had the Classic Theme Restorer Add On installed within 5 minutes and all is good again.
Spec, Do you think the fact that companies like TCS (Tata Consultancy Services) who in their history never processed Green Cards have started processing EB1 for their more senior folks have any effect on overall EB1 usage. I've 3 friends in TCS and all of them got theirs GCs in EB1 category in the last 1 month or so. My guess is approximately 2000-3000 TCS people will get it before September 30th.
Hope this doesn't impact people with PDs till Q1 2009.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I do not doubt that there will be increased EB1 use this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by venkat
The question is how much this might be.
USCIS do not release information, which leaves Trackitt as the only real source of information.
However, this is unreliable when looking at EB1 as a whole. About 85% (90% for EB1C) of EB1 approvals on Trackitt are for people with Indian Chargeability and all the discussion seems to focus on increased use by Indian MNC. The numbers on Trackitt for other Countries are far too small to draw similar inferences.
EB1-India only represents about 25% (which might rise towards 30%) of total EB1 approvals.
In FY2012, 57.25% of primary approvals were for EB1C according to DHS figures. Spreading dependents at the same % and using the same % for India in FY2013 would mean about 5.5k EB1 approvals for India in FY2013 were for EB1C out of 9.6k total.
Even a very large % increase in EB1C-India approvals in FY2014 only amounts to a few thousand.
Besides that, EB1 has seen "lumpy" approval patterns before and the increased use in the first half of the year may not be sustained. I suspect it will stay somewhat elevated due to the slow processing at the Service Centers.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I've simulated the worst case scenario of NO SO from EB1 for FY14 due to heavy consumptionof EB1C visas by India and still ended up with enough visas for EB2-I to move the PDs to Jan'09.
The key here was the low EB2-ROW demand which was with in the reasonable limits.
Please comment on this document:
Guru's,Quote:
Originally Posted by krishn
I have pulled in perm row approval numbers from data from << http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...d-Calculations >>
The EB2 row approval numbers from << http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...l-reports.html >>
can we guesstimate how many eb3 row I-485 applications could be filed between 2008 - 2013 ??
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
PERM ROW 30138 19047 15819 17258 19368 8589
EB2 Row Approvals 42,588 28612 23,158 28613 20756 34849
EB2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China-mainland 6,955 3,045 6,505 8,257 5,858 3,627
china-Taiwan 2,346 1,481 1,269 1,548 1,022 1,636
india 14,806 10,106 19,961 23,997 19,726 17,193
philipines 2,057 1,850 2,162 3,242 2,408 4,439
mexico 1,347 922 817 1,147 823 1,717
eb2 total 70,099 46,016 53,872 66,804 50,593 63,461
row 42,588 28,612 23,158 28,613 20,756 34,849
YT,Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Based on your figures, I would come to a Cut off Date slightly earlier than you for 17k available to EB2-I, even if I allow a contingency when setting the Cut Off Date. Primarily, I suspect that is because of different assumptions made elsewhere on approvals to date and further porting approvals to come. I can therefore understand how you reached a Cut Off Date of 01JAN09.
At 22.5k, I would say that is maybe at the lower end of EB2-WW possibilities (although not inconceivably so) if you want to look at a very worst case scenario.
Gurus,
I am thinking for a job move. Any suggestions? My PD is July-21-2008.
Appreciate your inputs.
The All Forms and Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) data for Q1 FY2014 have been published.
On an unrelated note, DOL certified 6,833 PERM applications in April 2014, continuing their increased pace in recent months.
FY2014 PERM Certifications
October --- 1,422
November -- 3,307
December -- 4,343
January --- 4,866
February -- 4,881
March ----- 7,381
April ----- 6,833
Total ---- 33,033
This compares to 35,202 certifications for the whole of FY2013.
Spec,
Does this help you to predict more accurate? Appreciate your inputs!.
Did any one saw murthy.com prediction is FY 2014 EB2 I is Jan 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by sairam09
http://www.murthy.com/2014/05/01/off...ment-for-fy14/
my PD is July 29th 2008 so I need to wait for another year or 2????
Murthy saying is totally different from other firms have posted as indicated by Spec in previous page.