Hi Gurus,Q
When will we know how many spillover used this year?
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Hi Gurus,Q
When will we know how many spillover used this year?
We will have a rough idea when 485 inventory as of end of Sep 2013 published.Quote:
Originally Posted by helooo
We will have clear idea when the DHS annual report comes out.
it will take longer obviously to check out both names. nothing can be done about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Thanks Viz
Hello Everyone,
Just an update. Both my case and the dependent case status changed today to initial review. PD is 08/2008.
Thanks
Your PD is not current but the change is good. I am hoping that USCIS is looking to move the dates further ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by JackD1
today is that day for me :) ofcourse the rule doesn't apply to me :)
Viz,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
PD+6 won't apply to you either, your approval will be before that.. Good luck..
PD + 5 does not apply to most... I think the rule needs modification...Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I will be Pd + 5 and no EAD yet...
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I am reading data from trackitt that is different from what u fetched. I am sure that it would be an error on my side. But I will just represent the data anyways. Please correct me as to where I am going wrong.
The number of applicants who applied for I-485 in Aug 2013 so far is 75. Also many entries are by repeated usernames and therefore the actual count would be more like 68. I will represent data for last 4 months as that is more interesting.
Dec 07 - 06
Nov 07 - 10
Oct 07 - 08
Sep 07 - 10
Jagan,Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I wouldn't worry about it too much.
I have extracted the figures from a database I keep based on the Trackitt data.
As you have observed, the original Trackitt data is quite messy.
All new entries are checked against existing entries so there shouldn't be any duplicates.
What can happen is that people subsequently remove their case. If that happens, it will still be in my database but not in the actual Trackitt tracker. It happens more than you would think.
I've been keeping it since October 2011 and it it just too difficult to cross check against the latest information in the Tracker when I can only grab 50 records at a time. I have over 4k records in the database now and it forms the basis for these posts.
I use Country of Chargeablity = India. If you are using Nationality = India you will almost certainly get lower figures. That's a possibility.
My latest figures for PD 2007
Jan-07 --- 1
Feb-07 --- 1
Mar-07 --- 1
Apr-07 --- 2
May-07 --- 3
Jun-07 --- 3
Jul-07 --- 6
Aug-07 --- 5
Sep-07 -- 13
Oct-07 -- 12
Nov-07 -- 14
Dec-07 --- 9
Total --- 70
Either way, it should still give the trend.
My case status changed to Initial review as well on August 17, 2013. PD is July 22, 2008.
Dependent case status has not changed.
What does this mean. It may mean nothing, it is possible that they are just looking at cases close to current priority date. If all visas are used quickly, dates retrogresss this may mean nothing or it may be a good news.
Any comments by experts over here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JackD1
short by 18 days!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Gurus.. quick Q:
A friend of mine has a EB3 PD in 2005. He has ported to EB2 and I140 is approved. However his 485 (that he filed for EB3 in 2007 fiasco) is still in review status since 2010. Now he is current.
What are his options to find out what is going on with this 485 application.
Thanks in advance for your advise!
Other than calling USCIS and opening an SR (since his application is outside of normal processing times), I don't think there is anything else that your friend could do. Requesting help from Congressman and/or Senator would be another option.Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Thank you.. can you please point me to any link that gives the procedure to open a SR?Quote:
Originally Posted by tackle
Regards,
S
Quote:
Originally Posted by w253sxs
GuysQuote:
Originally Posted by geevikram
There is zero chance that dates will move ahead in Oct.... absolutely ZERO. Some differ whether COD will retrogress or not (I believe it will) but there is absolutely consensus that dates will not move forward any time soon.
vizcard,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I, for one, agree with you.
One more option is to take an Info pass appointment.Quote:
Originally Posted by tackle
I am guessing opening a SR and Info Pass are only valid for USCIS and not for DOL. I want to check on my PERM status since the dates are current for Sept.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
Thanks!
I have been following this forum silently for a long time. I am thankful to the gurus like Spectator, Q, Teddy, vizcard, Matt, Indiani and many others for the clarity that they provide.
My priority date is 2-July-2008, EB-2 India. I missed the boat this time by 18 days. So, when do you all think I would get the green card? Any inputs would be appreciated. I had applied for 485 in Jan 2012, but did not get gc in 2012 like some extremely lucky guys. I already have EAD and AP. I came to USA in mid-2003, so it is already more than 10 years working here for me. I am quite frustrated by all this wait. So, just wanted to know when I would get gc and get some peace of mind.
Unfortunately it could be as long as next August. But I am confident it won't be longer than 31st August. Best case is end of Q1 i.e. 31st Dec.Quote:
Originally Posted by waitinglong
How much Eb3 to Eb2 porting will occur next year, since chances of getting any other spillover ( Like FB this Year) are very less, will porting take up all EB2 quota?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
possible, too early to say especially considering few thousands will be in demand prior to COD of sept bulletinQuote:
Originally Posted by yawali58
I think as indiani has said, it is too early to have a good idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by yawali58
We should remember that porting was at an artificially high level this year due to EB2-I retrogressing so early last year. Numbers should return to a normal level next year.
Will porting be in sufficient numbers to consume the initial 2.8k available to EB2-I? Almost certainly.
Yes, SO will probably be less, but it won't be non existent. The signs are that EB1 is receiving less approvals. In FY2014, EB2-WW will also return to normal demand and should provide some Fall Across.
It's not entirely doom and gloom.
I am constantly amazed that, one way or another, something always happens to keep SO to EB2-I high. I have no idea what it will be next year, but I've learnt the unexpected cannot be ruled out.
To summarize,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
1) Lower EB3I to EB2I porting due to fewer months of EB2I retrogression
2) Fewer EB1 approvals
3) Lower EB2ROW demand (return to normal from exaggerated 2012 levels),
4) Potential decrease in EB2ROW demand below normal levels due to sequester, and
5) lower EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting, as a result of EB3ROW progression (temporary though it may be).
Will it provide as much spillover as 2013, I think not, but it's too early to tell.
average realistic expectation for forward COD movement than sept bulletin is may 2013 ( mine are very conservative estimates)Quote:
Originally Posted by waitinglong
I guess we will need to wait to get some concrete visa usage/catagory data for this FY before starting predictions for next year. For example there is a quite a wide range of EB2-ROW usage prediction on this forum with one gentleman predicting as high as 43-44K (and quite few on this forum in agreement with him). So it would be interesting to know what actual number was. Also, as this FY was first normal year after Kazarian memo hopefully we will get some baseline numbers for EB1 usage too. Those 2 numbers are primarily going to determine SO. We should treat any FB numbers as bonus (if we get any)Quote:
Originally Posted by yawali58
BTW- the gentleman who was predicting 44k EB2ROW usage and hence no movement beyond 2005 - I hope he already got his GC. God bless him.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
it is too early to guess any date movement patterns for FY2014. Most, if not all here don't expect any forward movement in the first quarter of FY2014. To base any calculation for next FY, we need to get the official number of left overs from this fiscal(including the new I-485 applications). Porting will continue to happen throughout next FY, the numbers will be lower, but it will be higher than EB2I quota(2800). Regarding spillovers from other categories to reach to EB2I, it would at least take two quarters, if not three. It is unfortunately the scenario, we EB2I face. As we get more and more data in the upcoming months, we would be able to make early projections on how far dates could move through next FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by waitinglong
To show I am an equal opportunity moaner, :) I have to say that I remain baffled by CO's decision to postpone movement for EB2-I until August - particularly this year.
CO knew from at least March 2013 about the 18k extra FB visas.
Since that gave EB1 45k, I believe there could have been no conceivable risk associated with releasing 5-7k to EB2-I in July. That was late enough to see the pattern for other Categories and the first month free of any concerns about 27% per quarter.
That would have spread SO allocation over 3 months and would have been quite manageable for USCIS. Instead, a very large number of visas now need to be allocated over 2 months and this appears to be stretching USCIS processing capacity.
If less visas had ultimately been available, the numbers allocated in September could have been less, so I don't think there was any downside to moving earlier.
So Spec, since USCIS seems to process painfully slow and CO waited really late, do you believe there will be wastage of SO visa numbers at the end of this FY?
Spec and Kanmani (and perhaps others too) discussed the actual processing work involved earlier, but I couldn't find those posts.
For preadjudicated applications (assuming the vast majority are preadjudicated), wouldn't there be no real processing work involved for the USCIS other than
a) reviewing responses to the mass TSC RFEs from June.
b) rerunning the IBIS check.
Apart from these two steps, the allocation of a visa number, sending of the approval emails and printing and mailing of the card should all be fairly quick, straightforward and perhaps automated, no? If so, the only time consuming steps should be the ones above. Depending on when people responded to the RFEs, the USCIS have likely had 1 to 2 months to review them, and they've had 18 to 20 days before the start of the month to redo the IBIS check.
I doubt if RFE response processing is the hold up, because if so, we wouldn't see slow NSC approvals too. And in any case, if the time for this was insufficient pre August 1st, surely, by Sep 1st they'll have had enough time, so even if this was the reason in August, it shouldn't continue through September.
Given that, is the IBIS check the bottleneck?
mstanfield,Quote:
Originally Posted by mstanfield
I'm not going to go that far yet, since it's so difficult to judge what the real number of approvals are, but I do think the possibility could have been avoided.
Spec - the visas are definitely not going to get wasted. Assigning the visas is a one click operation. The process of conveying the decisions to applicants can continue beyond september into October. So I wouldn't worry about visas getting wasted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I don't think they can register us as PR when dates aren't current, the email needs to go out when dates remain current, in this case if dates retrogress and somehow a case is pre-adj but actually approval not made , then they might have to wait until PD becomes current again.
They can't technically approve even one day before or after when dates aren't current
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I almost certainly agree with you, but I am not going to make as definitive a statement as you have.
It's a few click operation once it gets in front of the ISO.
Apart from higher numbers, there is also more competition for that time than in previous years, since all of EB3 has moved forward substantially in September. Excepting the new forward movement for EB3-ROW/C/M, all the cases are either due adjudication or have been pre-adjudicated for some time.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
when most of us didn't see any movement in august we knew one of the 2 scenarios will happen ; either there isn't enough SO or else there is enough SO but rapid movement will lead to chaos as uscis works on cases randomly and rather non-sensically and without enough processing capability.
the latter thing happened
http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/A...html#0-0-0-276
the way adjudication works at uscis
Fair enough Spec.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
We have seen october approvals in the past. I have never been sure what those are. But my best guess is that it is because of the very thing I earlier mentioned with spec above.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani