EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Veni - I am not sure I understood your conclusion. I understand the data you presented and I agree with the statement below - but I am not sure what you are suggesting regarding possibility of a significant demand destruction in 2008.

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Originally Posted by veni001

As we can see most of PD2008 approvals are from FY2009&FY2010 also most of PD2009 approvals are from FY2010. In addition FY2010 and FY2011 are the two great years for SOFAD.

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You are correct - a EB3IC person with PD before 2007 will have an EAD but likely no GC. Any future PERM/I-140 in EB2 will carry the EB3 PD and will become immediately current upon approval and will consume EB2 visa numbers.

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

imdeng/Teddy
Here is a question. If a person in EB3-IC had a priority date of lets say 2005 or later, he became current in July 2007 and filed I-485. But lets say he still filed a PERM in EB2 with a PD in 2008 or 2009. EB3-C is now at Oct-04 and Eb3-I is at Aug-02. This person would have an EAD but still not a GC. So now when his EB2 PD becomes current will he still not be counted as demand. He will eventually use a GC under EB2 and not EB3, right or am i wrong here. So only if EB3 porter had a PD before 2002 in case of India, he will already have a GC and his EB2 Perm will not create a demand, but otherwise it will use a EB2 visa number. Can you clarify if this is the case or not.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Veni - I am not sure I understood your conclusion. I understand the data you presented and I agree with the statement below - but I am not sure what you are suggesting regarding possibility of a significant demand destruction in 2008.

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Veni - I have same question.

Thanks for your reply Teddy. I have this question as my Perm with Employer B is filed in July 2011 and approved. Am I still eligible to file 140 and 485 together thru employer B.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

By all means you should try to convince company B to file I140 and 485 concurrently because the dates may retrogress at some point of time. By concurrent filing you can guarantee EAD / AP for yourself.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

All I have to say is WOW!!!

2009 folks can start partying if this is true indeed.

Now here is a silly question: Can this be corroborated from the demand data in EB3-I? What I am saying here is that as many as 70% people must already have gotten their green cards (most of them will have pre-July 2007 priority date). So why EB3-I is not progressing somewhat more rapidly? Or is it the case that perhaps folks from 2002 did not really upgrade, and it started from 2003 onwards?

And what about the demand numbers? If those people got approved and got their GCs in EB2, wouldn't EB3-I reflect it? Have we seen any evidence of this?

Final silly question: People here say that about 3K/year cases from EB3 get upgraded to EB2. So post 2007, around 12K cases got upgraded (it has to be much more as the upgrades were far more in the aftermath of July 2007 bus). So we should have counted these cases in the 2008/2009 PERM data and actually subtracted those porting numbers? Is that what Ron is saying? If so, how come the Gurus missed it here?

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Originally Posted by imdeng

EB3I IS actually moving faster than just 2.8K/year. In last one year, EB3I inventory has gone down from 59K to 53K - double the usual county quota. Even with people falling out from inventory with porting, a 2.8K quota per year does not do much for the really dense 2002/2003 for EB3I.

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Guys you have actually described the methodology for the porting calculation. Porting really picked pace after Sep 2009 when clinical approvals started for the first time. In Sep 2009 the entire chunk of Eb2 I/C for 2004 were approved and EB3 became unavailable. So really yes after we cross Sep 2009 we should be deducting 3K from the perm figures assuming the transformation ratio of 1. Since we have not hit this time yet it is really not a factor till 01-JAN-2009. So now if really lesser number of 485's are filed than what comes by the transformation ratio of 1 it can be attributed to demand destruction as people did not have the cushion of EAD / AP. On another note the market was bad for the financial sector, IT was slightly better, definitely not good, 75% of EB2 I is probably IT.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

My point was porting is definitely not a factor in this zone. If lesser number of 485's has really been received then it can be attributed solely to demand destruction. You make a valid point many people who filed perm in 2008 saw cases going into audit, many people may have been in the 6th year of H1 and possibly could not extend it or for many the 1-2 year wait for perm was just too long, so even if the perms finally got approved they were kind of redundant. 75% EB2 - I being IT is just my own guess / gut feel no calculations / numbers to that that’s what I indicated in my post, apologies for not being clearer.
On another note when CO decided the Jan bulletin only the NOV filers PD till 01-NOV-2007 should really have been truly visible to him, the Dec filing was just picking up till that time. The Nov filing is truly restricted to 2007 at that point of time perm was quite normal, even for Dec filers till Mar 15 29008 perm situation was normal it just became worse from Mid 2008. So I guess either there was definite demand destruction, lesser numbers coming based on what they expected (We do not know what was their expectation) or just discretion or a mix of all. However whatever happened is very good for everyone in 2008 it gives people to file for EAD / AP. In fact the wait time for the PWMB's to file for EAD / AP was as much as 4.5 years now it’s down to 2 years if someone has a PD of say Dec 2008 in theory this itself is a great positive from the whole situation.

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Teddy- thanks for quick reply. And indeed this move will help lot of people to get EAD/AP. It will also provide us 'actual' 2008 demand. What else we could ask for in current environment.

Sorry If I am posting on the wrong thread, we received the receipt notices and my wife has a different A number than what was on her EAD while doing OPT, is this common? Should i be worried?

Hello friends,

Sorry for posting my question in this thread but I did not get a clear answer on the other one. My question is that my birth certificate is in my mother tongue (marathi), so do we need a certified translation or consulate version of the birth certificate?

Thanks

I agree - the positive impact of 07/07 for later filers was that there was good visibility and we could do good prediction/calculation. Once 2008 demand is in the Demand Data or 485 Inventory, we should be able to get a better handle on PD movement.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Teddy- thanks for quick reply. And indeed this move will help lot of people to get EAD/AP. It will also provide us 'actual' 2008 demand. What else we could ask for in current environment.

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Teddy - you mean 3 years right. A wait time down to 2 years would be awesome.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

In fact the wait time for the PWMB's to file for EAD / AP was as much as 4.5 years now it’s down to 2 years if someone has a PD of say Dec 2008 in theory this itself is a great positive from the whole situation.

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Sorry to post this here.....does anyone recommend a good place for passport photos for I485? Is costco a good choice?

Yes thats true, reducing the wait time for EAD to three years (possibly 2.5 or 2 based on further movement) is quite positive. For me with Dec 2007 PD filing 485 itself was a distant dream leave alone GC. But after this movement the dates will stabilize to 4 year for EAD and 4.5 years for GC. Of course if HR 3012 passes it will be much less, all the more reason we have to support this legislation in Senate. Please call and write to your senators about supporting this. If you are ok with donating to the unnamed forum you can do that as well.

If you apply for EAD today when can you expect to get GC? After GC how much time does it take to be a citizen?

Nishanth,

What is your guess on receiving GC in this year's quota? now the dates moved to jan 09, i guess retrogression might not be as bad we predicted (aug 07). do you agree.

with pd of dec 2007, trying to understand when we can expect gc. few decisions need to be made at personal level.

thanks,

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Originally Posted by imdeng

I agree - the positive impact of 07/07 for later filers was that there was good visibility and we could do good prediction/calculation. Once 2008 demand is in the Demand Data or 485 Inventory, we should be able to get a better handle on PD movement.

Teddy - you mean 3 years right. A wait time down to 2 years would be awesome.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Thanks Teddy. You mean 3 years for Dec 2008, right?

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Guys yes its 3 years, thanks for the correction its a good improvement for the wait time in a positive direction.

Costco is good and reasonable.
They will give u picture in 15 mins. If you don;t like quality then they will retake snap at free of cost. Take out glasses if you have just to avoid glare and all....

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Originally Posted by wantgcnow

Sorry to post this here.....does anyone recommend a good place for passport photos for I485? Is costco a good choice?

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Originally Posted by gc2008

Hello Guys,
I have been following this site for so long but never posted. I know its the wrong thread to ask this question but as its has more traffic, I am posting my question here. First of all congratulations to all who became current and good luck who are still waiting. As many of you, my PD also became current in the latest visa bulletin. I recently went through H1B extension and had the title as senior programmer analyst. When we applied for PERM and I 140 3 years back, the title was little different than what was applied for my recent H1B extension. However, the job duties are same. In 485 form, for the current occupation, my attorney said that my current title should be filled (which is senior programmer analyst) and not the title which was mentioned in PERM. Is it OK. As per him, current position can be different from that of GC. Is he correct?

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Thanks KD2008 for your response. Any other responses would be appreciated. Please let me know I am nervous

I have filed for my I-485 this month and received the notices today. Everything is accurate in my reciept notice but on my wifes application the priority date is listed as Dec 2nd 2011 instead of the real priority date. Also, her preference classification is blank. I see this as a concern but just wanted to check if anyone had similar issues and how they went about getting this rectified. My wife is piggybacking on my application.

Moderators - Please move this to the appropriate thread once folks respond.

Guys,
Am a great fan and have been an ardent follower for a few months now. Would like to thank all who have contributed to this and made life easier for rest of us. Finally decided to join the party with a question I have.
I have a PD of 5/1/09 and have my H1 renewal pending (applied late - recepit date 8/29/11). Looks like there is a decent possibility that my date could get current in the Feb (hopefully) or March Visa Bulletin. Just wanted to know if I need to have the approval on renewal to be able to file 485 just in case the date gets current. Dont want to miss the opportunity to get an AP, if I can, as have not been able to visit saadi dilli (our delhi) for 4 years now..sic. Am contemplating going premium if I have to but dont want to attract the EXTRA attention to the renewal if I don't need to.
I tried looking through some relevant threads but couldn't find an answer. Would appreciate if one of the more knowledgeable ones can help me out here. Using this thread just because of the high visibility and apologies in advance for doing so.
Thanks
Manzoor

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Originally Posted by tometukuri

I have filed for my I-485 this month and received the notices today. Everything is accurate in my reciept notice but on my wifes application the priority date is listed as Dec 2nd 2011 instead of the real priority date. Also, her preference classification is blank. I see this as a concern but just wanted to check if anyone had similar issues and how they went about getting this rectified. My wife is piggybacking on my application.

Moderators - Please move this to the appropriate thread once folks respond.

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No need to worry about that.
Saw the same with our case too.

your case link's to your wife's.

Hello Experts...
Sorry for posting unrelated question to this thread.
I have filed my H1 ext in Nov11 which was expire in Nov11 itself , I also filed I485 in Oct11 and still waiting on EAD/AP .currently I am working based on H1b receipts.
Question is once I get EAD and if I withdraw my H1 ext petition and start using EAD immidialtely will I be considered as out of status(not suppossed to work)for the period (Between h1 expired date and EAD start date) since I am withdrawing the case?
Just don't want to deal with RFE and visa stamp and site visit etc..

Want to know your thought ,any reply would be highly appreaciated.
Thank you

I like your optimism especially when my pd is feb 26, 2009. :)

Your Receipt number should be fine. Since they check your legal presence and staying with Receipt number during the H1B extension is legal. What I am not sure is, is it upto 180 days or 240 days.

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Originally Posted by manzoorraza

Guys,
Am a great fan and have been an ardent follower for a few months now. Would like to thank all who have contributed to this and made life easier for rest of us. Finally decided to join the party with a question I have.
I have a PD of 5/1/09 and have my H1 renewal pending (applied late - recepit date 8/29/11). Looks like there is a decent possibility that my date could get current in the Feb (hopefully) or March Visa Bulletin. Just wanted to know if I need to have the approval on renewal to be able to file 485 just in case the date gets current. Dont want to miss the opportunity to get an AP, if I can, as have not been able to visit saadi dilli (our delhi) for 4 years now..sic. Am contemplating going premium if I have to but dont want to attract the EXTRA attention to the renewal if I don't need to.
I tried looking through some relevant threads but couldn't find an answer. Would appreciate if one of the more knowledgeable ones can help me out here. Using this thread just because of the high visibility and apologies in advance for doing so.
Thanks
Manzoor

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Feb262009,
Thanks for the response and goodluck to you too. I think the period is 240 days and am pretty sure I will get some sort of answer before that elapses.
After what happened Jan visa bulletin, nothing seems to be too radical to expect. I just don't wanna be caught with my pants down if and when it comes down to it. Any immigration related documentation is like a condom.....better to have it and not need it rather than need it and not have it.

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Originally Posted by Feb262009

I like your optimism especially when my pd is feb 26, 2009. :)

Your Receipt number should be fine. Since they check your legal presence and staying with Receipt number during the H1B extension is legal. What I am not sure is, is it upto 180 days or 240 days.

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Originally Posted by dec2007

Nishanth,

What is your guess on receiving GC in this year's quota? now the dates moved to jan 09, i guess retrogression might not be as bad we predicted (aug 07). do you agree.

with pd of dec 2007, trying to understand when we can expect gc. few decisions need to be made at personal level.

thanks,

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If indeed demand gathered is low due to demand destruction, then 2007 will be cleared in this FY.

Retrogression you are correct in assuming around worst case of August 2007. It will only happen if the demand starts creeping up to a level which QSP cannot pacify. The point to which to retrogress will also be based on QSP available and demand getting ready.

For example, Q2 starts in January. If CO is able to have 7k QSP, and the Nov VB batch, which is from July 15th 2007 to Nov 1st 2007 (3.5 months) starts getting demand ready in this Q2, assuming around 8k demand coming from that intermittently, the 7k should be just enough to satisfy this batch whilst 1k would show up in Demand data at some point, but by that time, the next batch would be getting ripe intermittently and new QSP might be available.. This 1k should not cause panic bells to CO. But suppose, he can only project / allocate 5k QSP in Q2, then he would retrogress to say October 1st 2007, and 3k around would show up in demand data. Just thinking aloud here, not saying these are actual numbers etc. I am not sure how CO does QSP allocations, in Q1 he clearly has done that on a monthly basis. Also if Q1 he has done QSP and not the entire annual allocation of 5.6k he would still have that annual allocation up his sleeve.

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Originally Posted by gc2008

Thanks KD2008 for your response. Any other responses would be appreciated. Please let me know I am nervous

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You need to put your current job title. They really don't expect your title to stay the same from when you filed PERM several years back. I know mine has changed and so have the roles as I've got promotions along the way. That won't impact the application as green card is for future employment.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

If indeed demand gathered is low due to demand destruction, then 2007 will be cleared in this FY.

Retrogression you are correct in assuming around worst case of August 2007. It will only happen if the demand starts creeping up to a level which QSP cannot pacify. The point to which to retrogress will also be based on QSP available and demand getting ready.

For example, Q2 starts in January. If CO is able to have 7k QSP, and the Nov VB batch, which is from July 15th 2007 to Nov 1st 2007 (3.5 months) starts getting demand ready in this Q2, assuming around 8k demand coming from that intermittently, the 7k should be just enough to satisfy this batch whilst 1k would show up in Demand data at some point, but by that time, the next batch would be getting ripe intermittently and new QSP might be available.. This 1k should not cause panic bells to CO. But suppose, he can only project / allocate 5k QSP in Q2, then he would retrogress to say October 1st 2007, and 3k around would show up in demand data. Just thinking aloud here, not saying these are actual numbers etc. I am not sure how CO does QSP allocations, in Q1 he clearly has done that on a monthly basis. Also if Q1 he has done QSP and not the entire annual allocation of 5.6k he would still have that annual allocation up his sleeve.

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Thanks for a detailed answer.

I became current in last bulletin. However, I am currently single and going through matrimonial process. So I want to delay filing my i-485 to avoid any issues later on if I-485 is approved before I get married. I am thinking of a scenario described below, do any of gurus see any issues/downside with it?

What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

really appreciate any answer and help.

Thanks.

Its a solid plan. Even if dates retrogress in Feb VB, you have until Jan 31st to file 485. You can file any time up to the time when a retrogressed PD becomes effective - there is no expiration.

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

really appreciate any answer and help.

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

I became current in last bulletin. However, I am currently single and going through matrimonial process. So I want to delay filing my i-485 to avoid any issues later on if I-485 is approved before I get married. I am thinking of a scenario described below, do any of gurus see any issues/downside with it?

What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

really appreciate any answer and help.

Thanks.

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Marry in court now and get the marriage certificate and file now while you're current along with your wife assuming you have found a girl.

Ceremonies can be held later. IMO. If you haven't found a girl, you can delay.

You will have until Jan-31, if dates retrogress. But even if retrogresses your PD will be current again next FY hopefully.

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

I became current in last bulletin. However, I am currently single and going through matrimonial process. So I want to delay filing my i-485 to avoid any issues later on if I-485 is approved before I get married. I am thinking of a scenario described below, do any of gurus see any issues/downside with it?

What if I keep all documents ready to file before next bulletin (around 10th Jan) and if dates don't retrogress wait until next bulletin, dates retrogress than file immediately? ( I suppose I have until 31 Jan to file even if date retrogress) any issues or troubles anyone can think of? Do any of the prepared documents "expire"?

if dates don't retrogress how long I can defer filing my i-485?

really appreciate any answer and help.

Thanks.

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Deleted since already answered

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Originally Posted by smuggymba

Marry in court now and get the marriage certificate and file now while you're current along with your wife assuming you have found a girl.

Ceremonies can be held later. IMO. If you haven't found a girl, you can delay.

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Originally Posted by mygctracker

You will have until Jan-31, if dates retrogress. But even if retrogresses your PD will be current again next FY hopefully.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Its a solid plan. Even if dates retrogress in Feb VB, you have until Jan 31st to file 485. You can file any time up to the time when a retrogressed PD becomes effective - there is no expiration.

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Thanks imdeng, mygctracker and smuggymba for answers. I haven't found the girl yet, which is turning out to be very difficult.

I was not hoping to face this weird situation for at least one more year, but sudden movement of PD changed everything.

I will keep defering application for i-485 until it retrogresses or I get married.

If I just get marriage certificate, won't it arouse suspicion related to visa fraud?

My wife had the same situation ,I requested my company to file H4 Visa and My attorney rejected saying she will be covered under AOS based on I485 receipt number ( it seems they don’t want to waste money for H4visa).
I raised the same concern whatever you have presented here and I am waiting for the response from my company attorney. I will update you if i hear anything from them.

Any ways lets wait for the Inputs from our Experts.

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Originally Posted by memk26

Hello Experts...
Sorry for posting unrelated question to this thread.
I have filed my H1 ext in Nov11 which was expire in Nov11 itself , I also filed I485 in Oct11 and still waiting on EAD/AP .currently I am working based on H1b receipts.
Question is once I get EAD and if I withdraw my H1 ext petition and start using EAD immidialtely will I be considered as out of status(not suppossed to work)for the period (Between h1 expired date and EAD start date) since I am withdrawing the case?
Just don't want to deal with RFE and visa stamp and site visit etc..

Want to know your thought ,any reply would be highly appreaciated.
Thank you

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Hi Guys,
I was wondering if somebody can answer my previous question about my wife having a different A number compared to her previous A number on OPT EAD card... please... i appreciate the help (please feel free to remove the post from this thread)
But on a 2nd note, all our receipts are in order LIN *******219 to 224, can we figure out how many 485 were filed based on that?
just an idea!!!!

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Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25

If I just get marriage certificate, won't it arouse suspicion related to visa fraud?

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If you marry a real girl in a real court and really bring her in the US as your wife - that's not fraud.

Coming up with a fake marriage certificate when a wife does not exist is fraud.

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Originally Posted by doctorp

Hi Guys,
I was wondering if somebody can answer my previous question about my wife having a different A number compared to her previous A number on OPT EAD card... please... i appreciate the help (please feel free to remove the post from this thread)
But on a 2nd note, all our receipts are in order LIN *******219 to 224, can we figure out how many 485 were filed based on that?
just an idea!!!!

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The A number on your OPT card is really your work card number. It is not the same as the A number assigned at 140/485 stage.
I know it sounds confusing, but that is how it is.
The A number you get on your EAD (based on 485 filing) will be different than the A number on the EAD recd during OPT.

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Originally Posted by zenmaster

The A number on your OPT card is really your work card number. It is not the same as the A number assigned at 140/485 stage.
I know it sounds confusing, but that is how it is.
The A number you get on your EAD (based on 485 filing) will be different than the A number on the EAD recd during OPT.

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thanks a ton... i was very confused

GC is for future employment. So what has been mentioned in PERM doesn't matter. Please mention the current job title.

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Originally Posted by gc2008

Thanks KD2008 for your response. Any other responses would be appreciated. Please let me know I am nervous

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Gurus,
When Dec Bulletin came out, lot of noise around. But this Jan Bulletin, I feel comparatively lesser noise. Does this indicate the people with 2008 PD are not too much?

I know lot of people bought the EB3 labor around july 2007 to get in. May be lot of 2008 Perms were to port that PD to EB2.

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Originally Posted by Feb262009

Gurus,
When Dec Bulletin came out, lot of noise around. But this Jan Bulletin, I feel comparatively lesser noise. Does this indicate the people with 2008 PD are not too much?

I know lot of people bought the EB3 labor around july 2007 to get in. May be lot of 2008 Perms were to port that PD to EB2.

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It just means people are busy getting their stuff together. If anything less noise means more people are busy.

Two reasons - first - a lot of very active people on the board have already become current - so their focus has shifted from analysis/calculation/anticipation to prepare-for-485 and post-485 stuff. Second, people with 2009/2010 PD, who should ideally be the main audience of this thread, have just not become pained and frustrated enough with the GC process to create much noise (compared to 2007 and 2008 PD people, who despite the EAD/AP bonanza for pre-07/07 people, suffered one of the longest waits for EB2IC).

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Originally Posted by vizcard

It just means people are busy getting their stuff together. If anything less noise means more people are busy.

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