Is it possible that this is update to 485's who have priority date before May 2010 EB2-I and update could be to grant EAD only 1 year as the EB2-I dates might move to May 2010?
Just a thought!!
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Is it possible that this is update to 485's who have priority date before May 2010 EB2-I and update could be to grant EAD only 1 year as the EB2-I dates might move to May 2010?
Just a thought!!
I doubt it. Although anything is possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
However a similar system cleanup has occurred earlier about 2 years ago, which had resulted in everyone with activity on EADs in the past year getting a notification at the same time. I suspect this is what was going on this time around as well.
I suspect this is just a cleanup of their system. This happend two years back as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
Howver anything is possible :)
The sequence is pretty much the same for me too. Got the emails Saturday afternoon for notification on card production with dates in early last year and then the texts came in today morning wee hours notifying of updates made to file. Unless it is a system wide glitch, it does seem like some touched the file (hopefully with good intentions as nowadays they seem to be messing people's lives for no reason sometimes.Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
Maybe. With May 1st as my EB2-I date, I would be expecting something to happen in the next few months. Not sure what you mean by issuing EAD only 1 year as I already have an EAD approved in feb 2017 valid till feb 2019.Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
USCIS approves EAD for only 1 year for those whose priority date is current or will be current. rest all will get EAD with 2 years validity.
Veterans on the forum, how reliable are these numbers (directly from the horse's mouth)
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...r_May_2018.PDF
Yes, usually they do. But hasn't been always the case for us. One time they approved ours for one year only. We were not close to being current. Somehow the year after that they separated mine and my wife's approvals so we both have different EAD start/end dates and also, that year and year after that, they approved my wife's ead for 1 year only and mine for 2 years. And after that they have approved both of our EADs for two years. It seems like sometimes it depends on the knowledge (or even mood) of the processing officer.Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
Its most likely reliable. Do yo think its on the higher side ?Quote:
Originally Posted by montyp80
Think about the number of H1Bs that get approved each year. Most go to Indians and there are about 85k each year. EB2I PDs have not moved beyond 2010. So over 7 years a pile up of 217k is totally possible assuming 30k each year. I surely think there are at least more than 30k Indians among the 85k H1B that get approved each year.
I got same update as well; text and email. Maybe system error. My PD March 2010 EB2.Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
Do you think these are PERM counts? How does DOS have these numbers unless reported by USCIS ? and How does USCIS know these numbers unless people file their 485's?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
USCIS has exact number only until May 2010 for EB2-I.
I think these numbers are total number of EB2 green cards approved until May 2018 for all previous years until YTD.
I am trying to find our source of these numbers.
This # is all immigrant petitions including I-140 ordered by priority date that occurs AFTER the May 2018 Visa bulletin. USCIS should have this count by priority date, shouldn't they?Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
Your argument is flawed.Quote:
Originally Posted by lville
Yes. I agree 140K EB visas should be based on talent not diversity. USA has historically disliked every immigrant community.. be it Italians, Irish, African Americans, Latinos, East/South Asians. Eventually they get accepted after second or third generation. You have to fight injustice and call it what it is.. an unjust law! Yes, you do want diversity. There are FB and lottery visas for that, which are not based on TALENT!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Don't worry about it, I also got similar email and text alert also. I have got one similar last year also..I think every time they tweak the code and test their system it triggers random emails and alerts.Quote:
Originally Posted by almost
This basically means that CO's oft repeated 'Unable to gauge the Demand' is bullshit. We know how many Pending AOS applications are in the pipeline and we know how many are outside the pipeline. We don't have to be rocket scientists to figure out that EB3I PD needs to be ahead of EB2I PD. Hopefully that is what we will see in the next bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by montyp80
The details clearly state that its the sum of pending I140 / I526 / I360. For EB2I most applications are coming from an approved I-140.Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
The only thing I am not sure about is whether they are counting the number twice for applicants that might have ported from EB3I to EB2I. I am just surprised to see north of 50k applicants pending for EB3I and that makes me think that may be they are counting the porters twice (once against EB3 and once against EB2).
Thanks, This data clearly gives CO enough visibility of the demand available, all that he needs to figure out is unused numbers to move EB2 and EB3. I really do not understand why CO keeps saying he does not have visibility in identifying the demand and takes a conservative approach in moving the dates.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I agree with you, I don't think they have a mechanism of knowing how many people have both EB2 and EB3 Approvals. So, my guess would be at least half of EB3 would be having EB2 Approval also.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
This information is the total demand till 2018. If you average it only for primaries we average to 5000 for EB3 India (Almost 11 years from July 2007 - April 2018). However for Eb2 I average jumps to little around 30 K for each year (May 2010 - April 2018). They have averaged the dependents to 1 for the year 2016 for EB2.
However the real fact would EB3 - I would be less than 3000 primaries for 2008-2009-2010 if we compare the perm data for those years along with EB2 I approvals till last month
If there are total 306K Primary Applicants, then there will be at least another 306K Dependents per the report. So, that is a total of 612K Applicants from India against a quota of 8400 Per Annum. Theoretically, it would take about 72 years for the last person to get GC!! Even assuming an SO of 10K every single year, it would still take 33 years to clear ALL the Indians!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by montyp80
Absolutely - Anyway to me, there has never been an ambiguity about CO's (or Admin's) intentions. It does not hurt them to be conservative and allot more visas. They don't because the Admin just doesn't want to. The entrepreneur rule is being rescinded - it was so harmless. Also plans to derail H4 EAD are delayed but being worked upon.Quote:
Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar
These numbers are very low, specially EB3I, at one point I read reputed lawyer saying there are more than 250,000 people waiting in EB3I only.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
What's mind boggling is there are onnly 60k (say 150k including dependents) primary applicants waiting in que as of today, and still EB3 is moving so slow!!!
Dear, you are making the same assumption lot of organizations are doing to trick the gullible Indians in the employment queue.Quote:
Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar
EB2 - 216 K primaries 8 years. (A lot of them duplicates. It can be anywhere between 30-40%)
Eb3 -55 K primaries 11 years. (A lot of them are porters in 2009)
Absolute low demand in EB3-ROW and pretty low demand in EB2-ROW. Aggressive admin immigrant policies repudiating for new immigrants from ROW, which in turn helping Indian back loggers.
I had some documents which showed from PERM list that we have about 3000 primaries in EB3 India for 2009 and 2010. If the anticipated demand is low for 2008, then EB3 moves to 2010 end within a year. Similar to the 3 year movement we had from June 2017 to June 2018.
Lot of EB2 filers who had ported may use their original EB3 approval to do AOS. So from 2019 EB3 India will move forward with 8 year delay and EB2 India will move forward with 9 year delay.
The 33 year, 72 year stories is not the way these things work.
When you go shopping, do you buy from a store that has the most competitive prices? Most talent needed today is in IT or areas that use a lot of IT. India and China have the human reaources to supply that demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by gten20
The consumer economy of the US has most basic things coming from China. What about that? Should we have a cap on that to be fair to other countries?
Employment based immigration was not setup to ensure diversity: it was there to import talent that is needed. However, family-based immigration is completely different. Diversity makes more sense there.
Here is the flaw in your reasoning: The Indians and Chinese are already here! They are here on H1, EAD, etc. The point is should tax-paying, hard-working, skilled workforce be subject to second-class existence for years and years? When you approve the I-140, shouldn’t a fair system allow residency after 5 years at least? If you want to limit immigration, don’t even allow PERM unless the backlog is cleared; but you can’t have folks in limbo for 10 or 15 years. That’s no “immigration”: that is “servitude”.
I think you replied to the wrong quote. The OP i replied to, was arguing for country cap. I am against country caps in EB which has caused this massive backlog.Quote:
Originally Posted by nbk1976
Yes, I am sorry: I meant my reply to be for the OP, and I know you were against the ridiculous idea of Indians and Chinese explosion into the US and the absurdity of denying other countries from entering. Who said Indians and Chinese are the smartest? :)Quote:
Originally Posted by gten20
Greatly appreciate your Analysis.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
The rapid movement of EB3 will allow 2009 ,2010 having duplicates to file AOS in EB3. Wouldn't this help EB2 move faster and catch up with EB3 with same delay years ?
Thanks Aceman.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
1.) What prevents EB2C from porting to EB3C? Why will it be any different for India?
2.) Folks in EB2I who already filed would need interviews if they port. How much of a deterrent will this be.
Regards
Quote:
Originally Posted by Immigrant
What we are forgetting is these are EB visa's and has to be sponsored by employers. There is nothing stopping you from downward porting if you are working with some mom and pop consulting firms.
Now for clarity I have to explain what porting is from EB3-EB2. It is basically a new petition applying for a new labor, new I-140 (attaching the priority date of the previous petition). So basically the employee can have 2 active petitions in the above scenario. Since this is for future employment, an employee can also have multiple petitions with multiple employers at this stage as well.
Downward porting in the same company from EB2-3. The employee already has an approved labor for EB2 which is a higher skill. So it seems the employer can file for EB3 for the same employee.
However there is a catch according to a corporate lawyer I had interacted with. The offered salary for Eb3 can be considerably less than EB2. So this can result in an unexpected consequence of getting the GC faster with a lower salary :-). This is even applicable for the porting too. If you had already ported and used EB3 to file AOS, the employer is required to pay the employee the salary specified in that petition. It depends on individual employers to enforce it though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
Eb3 and EB2 India will go hand in hand for a while, may be till first quarter end of 19. Then it has to be EB3 all the way. The numbers don't lie.
You are talking about hypothetical best case scenarios based on guess work, which could very well turn out to be true. But in this era, it is hyperbole rather than hypothesis that is ruling the roost.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Sounds like advantage desi basement and mom/pop shops again! They always seem to find a way to be relevant :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
These are hypothesis, the scenarios are mean possibilities and not necessarily the absolute best case. The guess work as you call, I believe is ignoring the current Admin's aggressive anti-immigrant policy.Quote:
Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar
Let us look at the reality from present. Every year we get 85K people in H1 minimum. The recent data shows we get about 7-8% people in L1A's going for EB1. We have 140 K GC available. The system is more or less designed to work efficiently when it was designed.
The 70 year story was the real hyperbole propagated by some groups who presented had great influence with the previous admin. It was just used to send cat among the Indian Immigrant pigeons.
So the best thing we can do, is we can be honest to the people who are following us. I have a Feb 2011 PD, which in the best case can be current within next 3 months, the average case within 1-2 years and worst case 3 years and above.
Looks like you're out of touch with reality. People are spending 11-12 years of their prime waiting for GC. Mine is March 2010 and I have EAD and I might get GC in 2-5 years...how the heck is that acceptable.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
My colleague from brazil had same PD (we joined same company/same month); he's a US citizen since 1.5 -2 years. Your statement is nonsense. Let's not turn this forum into trackitt.
When I ask my friends with PD 2013 EB2 on when they think they will get GC.....they don't have an answer..so yes if there is NO spillover, the wait of 70 years is simple math. How can you depend on a variable to predict something for sure?
This is incorrect for an EB2-EB3 downward porting scenario.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
In a downward porting scenario, the EB3 I-140 is being applied for on the basis of a PERM that has already supported an EB2 I-140.
The EB3 I-140 is using the same PERM, which sets out both the minimum requirements and minimum wage for the position.
Regardless of whether an EB2 or EB3, or both I-140 are applied for, the I-140 application needs to meet the minimum requirements laid out in the PERM certification that supports it (Educational, Experience and Wage).
An EB3 I-140 would have to show a wage that was the higher of either the Prevailing Wage or the Offered Wage in the PERM.
The scenario you mention would happen only if a PERM was certified which did not meet EB2 requirements at the I-140 stage. Then it could have lower requirements and a lower Prevailing Wage.
By definition it would not be an EB2-EB3 downgrade. It's just an EB3 application.
It might also be considered fraudulent, if the employer was expecting the beneficiary to carry out the (unmentioned in the PERM) tasks associated with an EB2 application for a lower wage. Lower requirements might also cause it to fail at the recruitment stage, since more qualified applicants might apply for the position - a position probably inaccurately described.
There's no maximum requirements for applying under the EB3 category at the I-140 stage. Whatever category is used at the I-140 stage, the PERM must be an accurate description of the job offered and the minimum requirement for that job.
Even in a EB3-EB2 porting scenario, if ultimately, the I-485 is approved under EB2, the Prevailing Wage from that PERM and I-140 would be applicable.
Only if the beneficiary interfiled back to the EB3 and was approved under EB3, then theoretically, the Prevailing Wage from that PERM could be said to apply (but only for the position and duties in the EB3 I-140). Only an unscrupulous employer would use that, because the beneficiary would (presumably) actually be working at the EB2 level. In that case, they could argue the EB2 PW applies, or leave the employer.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Is there any data which would tell us how many EB2C downgrade each year? My question is -what's stopping majority EB2C from downgrading?
Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
It is what the rule says, with the country quota which the hard reality you are talking about 11 years wait. The group extrapolated the current wait time came up with the hyperbole of 70 years. You cannot take an isolated case of person from Brazil, Uganda or Pakistan and present your case as unfair which is not going to fly for people.
You have EAD, I don't have one, Another person after being here for 9 years got his H1 renewal rejected. There are many hard realities around. So instead of calling my statement nonsense you can back up your statement with real facts to counter what I said. That way we can have an intelligent and sensible debates. I will not talk bad of trackitt as they provide a great avenue for sharing lot of information.
I am saying if you are with March 2010 PD, please don't propagate inaccurate and outright lies of information to people with PD after. A positive information gives hope to the people waiting.
Now for 2013 EB3 they don't have any information. So that doesn't mean you take the most pessimistic case and propagate it as the absolute fact and spread the misery. A sensible assumption would be to present a possibility of what is the range of the best case all the way to the worst case.
I will walk the talk I mentioned for the example your provided for EB2 2013.
For the last 8 years we have about 216,000 primaries in Eb2. You have to account for about 30% of duplicate applications, porter etc, which would bring down this number to around 150,000. USCIS uses an average of 1 dependent for EB2 filers. So we have an educated prediction of about 300,000 people in EB2 till April 2018 for India which would be about 35,000 people a year.
The worst scenario => 2900 a year would result in taking 12 years to clear 2009, 12 years 2010, 12 years 2011, 12 years in 2012. He don't have to worry as he would be most probably wont need it, by the time his PD in 2013 comes.
The pessimistic scenario => 5000 a year would result in 8 years 2009, would take 32-35 years for 2013
The reasonable possible scenario (Starting FY 2018) => 12000 a year would result in 3 years 2009, would take close to 10 years from now. However lot of people by this time realize that EB3 is going to be faster, so 2012-13 guys will start to downgrade and get a faster date. This thins the original queue as well.
However the scenario I am seeing is for both EB2 and 3 together for 2018, 2019 and 2020 is 20-25 K visa's. The demand from ROW is definitely going to be low while this admin is in power till Jan 2021. We can only predict what is in the near future.
The scenario you mention would happen only if a PERM was certified which did not meet EB2 requirements at the I-140 stage. Then it could have lower requirements and a lower Prevailing Wage.
By definition it would not be an EB2-EB3 downgrade. It's just an EB3 application.
These are the people who are the most at this point of time who might be looking to utilize there Eb3 petition
Ace\Q\Spec
Your guidance in this forum is of immense help. I have a scenario where my PD is July 2nd 2009 and I'm hoping to see if i would get current in FY 2019 but very much confused which one I should go for. My Eb3 is under my ex employer and reached out to them and they said they haven't cancelled my i-140 and ready to process my Eb3 if it becomes current and then join them. my current employer holds my eb2 with PD 2009. Assuming i apply for EAD for both Eb2 and Eb3 and then choose whichever one comes first or can i join my ex employer after my Eb3 is approved. I'm totally not sure how this works or should I just stick with my current employer and proceed with EAD and wait for GC under Eb2 or is there harm in processing both the applications if EB2\EB3 reaches july 2009. What is the best possibility of EB2 reaching 2009 July? Appreciate your help\advice in this regards.