Smuggymba, if you have a valid H1-B then you can submit a new I-9 to your employer and work on H1-B.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
This is an option for you.
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Smuggymba, if you have a valid H1-B then you can submit a new I-9 to your employer and work on H1-B.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
This is an option for you.
Spec - great stats as always. These EB3 numbers caused a little storm on the forum a few weeks back. One user insisted that EB3 India either didn't receive more numbers than quota or those numbers didn't come from EB3ROW. I and Kanmani thought that EB3ROW - inspite of aggresive date movements - just couldn't generate enough demand and hence ended up giving up its visas to EB3I (and now I know also to EB3P). I would be interested in hearing your take on that if any.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I also want to note that it interesting that...
1. EB3 overall consumed less visas than quota in spite of a very mature backlog.
2. EB3P received more when Philippines is a backlogged country across EB and FB.
Those would be good questions to ask CO.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I saw the conversation previously and agreed with the view put forward by Kanmani and yourself. IMO, it is clear that the extra numbers were made available to EB3-I due to the lack of demand from EB3-ROW caused by CO moving the Cut Off Date too little/too late.
To address your questions:
1. My belief is that happened because EB2-I had used too many visas. EB as a whole overshot their allocation of 158,466. CO had to stop all approvals and EB3 were the losers. It has been a continuing trend over the past few years and has occurred to some extent in every FY from FY2009 thru FY2013.
2. I think this is a topic that has been discussed before. The 7% limitation is an overall limitation across the total of FB & EB numbers. The September 2013 VB set the number as 26,913 for FY2013.
This is what allows South Korea to receive more EB visas than otherwise appears possible.Quote:
E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS
REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION
AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 25th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.
The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2013 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limits for FY-2013 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 158,466
Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2013 the per-country limit is 26,913. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,689.
For Philippines, it is easier to just look at it from an EB point of view (although that is not strictly correct as I said above). 7% of 158,466 is 11,093 approvals within all EB Categories. Philippines only used 4,901 visas in the other 4 EB Categories. Even with the extra numbers in EB3, Philippines only used 10,537 visas within all of EB in FY2013, which is still below the 11,093 limit.
Overall, Philippines used 26,840 visas across FB & EB. Of these, 24,221 counted towards the 7% limit, because 2,619 were issued under F2A (Exempt) and did not count towards the 7% calculation.
The low use by Philippines in other EB Categories has always allowed them to receive more EB3 visas than the notional 7% calculation for EB3 alone would suggest. The same used to be true for EB3-Mexico until they reached the EB3-ROW Cut Off Date.
I have said before that this seems unfair to EB3-ROW, because it reduces their allocation quite considerably, while the same under use by Philippines in EB1, EB4 and EB5 is also given as Fall Down to EB2 and under use in EB2 is available as Fall Across within EB2.
Spec Thanks.
I agree with your take on both the questions I had raised. I am amazed that CO doesn't have a real time visa allocation system. That would eliminate these overages and make it fair for everybody.
ps. moved the discussion in this thread as you suggested. This is a good place for these kind of discussions. Those interested in the data can view it here.
No. You cannot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pundit Arjun
I left my H1-B and joined a bigger company Oil & Gas company on EAD in IT for a better role (not the smartest thing to do but I was bored doing the same thing in my old company). I'll apply for EAD early and hope to get it in time but you have to be prepared for everything.Quote:
You must stop working right after your EAD expired and wait for EAD approval. You are lawfully permitted to do so and protected by AoS pending status less status.
Generally speaking you can if your employer is the same as whoever sponsored your H1B and H1B is still valid. (Which doesn't seem to be the case in your particular case).
In fact you can also capture any unused H1B while you were on EAD.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Agree with Q. Sorry smuggymba, didn't know of your Work changes while responding.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Good luck to you and hope your approval comes on time. Do keep is updated.
For those interested, the USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the February 2014 figures.
Spec, what are your thoughts on the receipt volume? EB3 date movement is hardly noticeable on it as I see it. What does this entail for the future date movements?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
To be honest, I still don't have a great feel for EB3-ROW volumes.
The problem with the dashboard data for NSC and TSC is that Employment I-485 is not all they handle and the other cases (Asylum & Refugee) are not an insignificant amount of the total.
At NSC, Q3 FY2013 Employment I-485 receipts only accounted for 34% of the total. That rose to 38% in Q4 and part of that rise might have been because the EB2-I (and EB3-I) dates moved forward in that quarter.
AT TSC, they have a higher % of EB receipts. In Q3 FY2013, Employment I-485 receipts accounted for 67% of the total. That rose to 75% in Q4.
Overall in FY2013, Employment Based I-485 receipts have accounted for between 46% and 55% of the total receipts at NSC/TSC. The highest % was in Q4.
It is a similar story for completions.
Overall the receipt numbers for EB seem to have held up quite well, if you accept that months where EB2-I and EB3-I moved forward would result in an extra number. They remain higher than, say, the Jan-Apr 2013 period, after which EB3 moved past July 2007 PD and the Cut Off Dates started to move at a faster pace. That is in a period where we might suspect that slow PERM processing times have also slowed EB2-ROW receipts.
All that said, EB3-ROW numbers don't appear to be that large in historical terms.
Numbers seem somewhat larger for 2008/2009 PD compared to 2010/2011. PD2012 seems incomplete to date.
I would not like to guess really, since I have little confidence in the underlying assumptions used to calculate the number. I have some numbers I am using, but I don't feel comfortable sharing them, since they have such a high error margin.
I think EB3-ROW have more than enough cases for their allocation this year - to the extent that the Cut Off Date will probably retrogress before year end if sufficient cases are adjudicated. Next year could be quite interesting.
I would be very interested to hear any thoughts you have on the matter, as well as those of anyone else.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec, I am having a hard time seeing the numbers in the dashboard data that could be attributed to EB3ROW filings that would make retrogression necessary (unless EB2ROW filings are in the toilet - they may be low but not negligible or EB1 filings are low - also unlikely). You also bring up an important aspect about processing. For retrogressing not only filings have to be in huge numbers but so must the adjudications ramp up. I think CO may hang up boots rather than calibrate retrogression - that is he will keep dates where they are till the annual quota is consumed and then make it "U" if necessary - that would be fair to EB3ROW filers. Depending on the processing volume, he may have to do it just one or two months.
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Everybody looks at data differently. As I said before, there are problems determining the underlying EB number of receipts from the I-485 dashboard data, yet alone drilling deeper to the categories. I've already said I am finding it difficult to determine the EB3-ROW demand.
Even so, I see a fairly healthy underlying overall EB numbers within the total EB receipts. Consider the following. Virtually none are EB5, some are EB4 and some are EB1. Currently EB2 has virtually no new EB2-I applications (due to the COD - when dates were more advanced, the numbers were correspondingly higher) and fairly low EB2-ROW/M/P applications are suspected due to PERM processing lengths. There are virtually no new EB3-I cases at present and the majority of EB3-P cases are CP (i.e. no I-485). That leaves a healthy potential number for EB3-ROW/C/M and has done for many months now, since the numbers ramped up when the dates moved forward last year. Some of those were approved last FY.
If EB2-P has lower approvals, then the number of EB3-P approvals can be correspondingly higher within the overall 7% limit. That acts to limit the EB3-ROW/C/M allocation.
Only as secondary evidence, the number of Trackitt approvals for EB3-ROW are already at 90% of last year's total for the full FY.
I'm aware this secondary evidence has potentially quite shaky foundations. I therefore don't wish to put too much weight on this factor.
The Trackitt cases represent a new "post July 2007" crop and it is possible the % representation has changed. On the other hand a fair proportion of last year's approvals also came from this new intake.
I don't think CO really likes to use "Unavailable" as a control mechanism, but I agree that what you say is possible, especially if it is only for 1 or 2 months. I also agree it wouldn't be a bad thing, since it would virtually ensure that EB3 use the entire allocation available to them.
Spec
Generally if you look at nebrasca and texas centers .... that is a good barometer of EB 485 demand. Not perfect but close.
p.s. - As always I always look at relative demand i.e. relative to prior years as opposed to absolute numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Agreed. I do look at that as well - first actually.
By that measure, the receipt numbers are very healthy, despite potential downturns in some categories. That also suggests the shortfall is being made up elsewhere.
I actually believe that EB3ROW demand has somewhat dried up over last few years because of two reasons ..
a) Since 2007 EB3ROW has stopped receiving spillover and hence EB3ROW backlog started growing and as a result ROW folks have turned more and more to EB2 category.
b) Economy is not healthy.
So although the demand in EB3ROW seems healthy today - it is not because right now EB3ROW is in the phase of clearing backlog. Once it clears up the backlog in 1-2 years that will be the time when we will be able to see the "secular" EB3ROW demand which I believe is going to underutilize their quota.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
We are as one on this subject.
The post July 2007 numbers seem much lower than the previous historic annual number and it appears to be a declining number as the PD year increases.
I agree that reflects the same increase seen in the % of applicants applying under EB2 during the same period.
I'm almost positive that EB3-ROW demand will underutilize their allocation next year and may well become Current. The only caveat would be if that in itself acts to attract more applicants under EB3, although many of those might be those who would otherwise have applied under EB2 or EB2-C "downgraders".
I think a third leg is that it has become increasingly difficult for ROW to obtain an H1B, due to over-subsciption of the annual quota and the relative distribution of applications. I can think of other reasons why ROW numbers may have decreased as well.
Yes indeed Spec. EB3 becoming current will then attract more applicants. But there would be some lag there and so it will remain current at least for a while before retrogressing again!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I am glad that H1 doesn't have a country quota but at the same time I do think that H1 limits should be increased and some fields need to be protected like somebody was talking about social sciences finding it difficult to get H1. But I guess that would be roundabout way to fix misguided economic policy. The absolute right thing is lifting of H1 limits and putting strict controls on what is eligible for H1. As well as completely removing intercompany transfers visa and replacing it with H1 visa without the PERM requirement but having the requirement to pay H1 wages.
Finally I also think that EB1C category should be downgraded to EB2. It is quite close to being abused.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Complete agree with you. Especially on the EB1C category. Its being abused badly.
Spec,
EB1C is a real concern and I have been trying to figure out how much they would consume. Trackitt approvals seem very vague. Below are the trackkitt primary approvals.
--------------Trackitt------Real
FY 2012-------302---------9209
FY 2013-------217---------UNKNOWN
I noticed that FY 2013 showed lower approvals for EB1A, EB1B, EB1C as compared to FY 2012. However, the usage was approx the same. Do you think trackitt representation reduced in 2013 ?
This year there are already 200+ primary approvals on trackitt. How many visas you predict EB1 will be using ?
Hi Gurus, my PD is March 9, 2009 and my chargeability is EB2I. I had received an RFE (Medical - flu vaccine) in 2012, I replied to the RFE, against my attorney's advice, that it is not flu season, so the USCIS waited until it was flu season and issued me a second RFE for not having taken flu vaccine, in October 2012. I had to take flu vaccine for the first time in 15 years (I chose to take the vaccine this time around and get done with it). My case status reads - "Request for Evidence Response Review", this since early November 2012. I would greatly appreciate the Gurus thoughts on -
Based on the posts from justvisiting and Spectator, what COULD happen to my case, will it sit there in the queue if in the event that dates move past my PD of March 9 2009 for EB2I? Will they work on it immediately or keep it in abeyance?
Should I reach out to the Senator for help as soon as I learn that dates moved past my PD.
Please advise!
Thanks!
Hi Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
It looks like the RFEs are mostly reported by EB3 I with PDs up to Dec end 2003. I am wondering by any chance does this mean that EB3 I might move to Dec 2003 in the coming June Bulletin. Does that mean there is going to be a much larger movement in the 4th quarter? Please let us know your opinion on this.
Best Regards
Amul
Amul,Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
I think covering PDs to the end of December 2003 may be something of a stretch this FY. It would need Fall Across from EB3-ROW.
The last Demand Data (as of Feb 7, 2014) showed 2,775 cases prior to the end of 2003 and the last USCIS Inventory (as of January 2014) showed over 4,000 before the end of 2003. November and December 2003 account for over 2,000 cases alone in the Inventory data.
Those numbers don't include the fairly substantial number of EB3-I approvals that took place in October/November 2013.
I think USCIS are probably looking at more cases than necessary, just in case extra visas should become available, or to ensure they have a head start for the next FY.
Spec/Q,
I have a EB3I PD of Feb 6, 2008 and EB2I PD of Dec 2012. My EB2 I-140 got approved today Apr 23 2014 and have opted for Consular processing in New Delhi. Can you please guide me on next steps? Is there any chance of getting greened this year? Thanks
talls,Quote:
Originally Posted by talls22
Congrats on your I-140 approval.
My knowledge of Consular processing is hazy at best. There are some quite good descriptions of the CP process on the internet, which you should search for to get more detail. Here's a few links I found on a quick search:
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...lar-processing
http://www.immihelp.com/immigrant-visa/
http://www.hooyou.com/consularprocess/faq.html
http://algvisas.com/?page_id=28
http://www.hooyou.com/consularprocess/steps.html
Some of the descriptions may be slightly out of date.
In general:
Now your I-140 is approved and CP was designated, USCIS will send the I-140 to the National Visa Center (NVC) for further processing.
Once NVC have completed initial processing, if the PD is likely to become current in a reasonable period, NVC will send a packet asking you to pay the processing fee and provide some information about yourself and any dependents who will CP.
At some point, a second packet will be sent which requires more information - from memory that includes police clearance certificates and the like.
Eventually, an interview will be scheduled. You will have to undergo a medical examination in your home Country prior to attending the interview.
Following a successful interview, you will receive an Immigrant stamp in your passport and a sealed package containing documents related to your case.
You will have 6 months to return to the USA and activate your immigrant visa. At POE, you would be sent to secondary and hand over the sealed package. Once processed, your passport would be endorsed with a temporary I-551 stamp and you would be admitted to the USA as a Legal Permanent Resident. The GC would arrive in the post at a later date.
Please don't rely on the above - it is very generic and from memory.
Best of luck.
PS:- You can choose to switch from CP to AOS (if you are legally present in the USA) if you wish to. I believe all you have to do is file an I-485 when your PD is current. USCIS will then request the I-140 from NVC. This would probably introduce a delay, but you would be able to benefit from AOS specific provisions such as EAD, AP and AC21 I-140 portability after the I-485 has been pending 180 days. You would lose any fees paid to NVC.
talls - I can't give any better info than Spec on next steps. However I can say this -- you will be current in August if not September. I think there is very good chance you will get a GC by Dec or earlier. If yours was a normal 485 - I would've said you would get a GC by Sept. But because of the CP thing and the fact that now the case is going to go to NVC I would imagine that might add some delay. But 2014 is your year. Good luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by talls22
Thanks for the great info! Really appreciate the same. As India PD will cross early 2008 only for 4-5 months starting from Jul/Aug do you think I have any chance to go thru all stages of CP during this time frame?
Other option I was thinking was my wife got H1B in this year lottery so I can travel on H4 and file I-485 from US in Oct. Is this legal/possible solution?
talls,Quote:
Originally Posted by talls22
I had added a PS to my original post to cover that situation. I'll reproduce it here.
It would be possible, if the PD remains current.Quote:
You can choose to switch from CP to AOS (if you are legally present in the USA) if you wish to. I believe all you have to do is file an I-485 when your PD is current. USCIS will then request the I-140 from NVC. This would probably introduce a delay, but you would be able to benefit from AOS specific provisions such as EAD, AP and AC21 I-140 portability after the I-485 has been pending 180 days. You would lose any fees paid to NVC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Awesome! All I need is EAD/AP. I hope PD is current till Nov like last year :-)
I've moved the discussion about Medical Exam Validity and RFE for Expiring Medical Exams to its own thread.
Hi Spec, Q and other members of this group. You guys are awesome. Cant express enough thanks on the level of analysis done in this forum. I am a new member and have EB2I priority date Sep 22 2008. From all the noise on extra GC's available this year, porting issues as well as less spill over from EB2 ROW, I am feeling the dates may not hit Sep 2008 at all like previous year and would reverse the course in Nov of this year? Am I being too pessimistic or your calculations are taking the priority date for EB2I to atleast start of 2009?
Thank you very much for your reply Spec. It looks like there is no hope for EB 3 I. I was hoping that this last quarter will bring some good news for long time waiters. This is very disappointing information.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks
Amul
Amul,Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
Sorry I could not give a better prognosis based on the data I can see.
I could be wrong, so feel free to disagree.
I think we discussed previously that the number of porters to be deducted from EB3-I numbers for PD2003 is likely to be quite low.
rs3533,Quote:
Originally Posted by rs3533
Welcome to the forum.
I think you are being quite pessimistic.
I'm fairly confident that the Cut Off Dates will move past your PD this FY even in a fairly poor scenario.
The faster processing by DOL has really started a bit too late to majorly impact EB2-ROW approvals this FY. I don't think EB1 use will increase sufficiently to endanger your PD.
The trick is to receive an approval while the dates remain current.
Good luck.
It is likely that you will be current this FY. Be ready for whatever RFE (medical, EVL, BC etc) that may land your way. I happen to be more optimistic about EB2I movement this year than most. Even if I were to be more pessimistic, I would imagine that Sept 2008 is within reach.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rs3533
rs .. welcome to forum. The dates will hit Sep 2008. I think they may hit Q1 2009. But anything beyond looks difficult to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by rs3533
Hi GuysQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for making me optimistic from pessimistic overnight. Past 8 yrs have been very brutal because of immigration issues ranging from admin processing on h1b stamping to RFE's etc. My career has been stand still despite investing on my MBA from top univ. Every morning when I get up , I wonder if it is worth waiting for all this. I hate going to office and work does not excite me. As I can see you have mastered the calculations so I will stay put.
Any recomendations on where to get birth certificate translated into english that is acceptable to USCIS. Also how else I have to be prepared for 485 ?
Regards
Can someone respond to my post on the Med Exam threadQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Amul,Quote:
Originally Posted by amulchandra
Please check this.. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...5855#post45855
Per my calculations, EB3I CY2003 I-485 applications will be completed by Sep'14 or Nov'14 , so you can expect the PD movement till Dec'03 during that time around and NOT in June VB.
If we get the huge spillover for EB3I from EB3ROW like last year then you might see the dates moving earlier.
Thank you very much for your response YT. I hope your words come true and EB3 I indeed receives some spillover this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Best Regards
Amul
Here's my predictions based on decrease in demand for EB3I last 4 years (quota + portings+withdrawals/denials)
Date of Pending Inventory India EB3 Inventory Annual Decrease/year Mean Decrease (in 4 years)
Jan-10 60874 NA 7202
Jan-11 58440 2434
Jan-12 51160 7280
Jan-13 45246 5914
Jan-14 32066 13180
Total Decrease -> 28808 (in 4 years)
Optimistic Conservative Pessimistic
Reduction in Demand -> 13,314 7,437 5,674
15-Nov-04 15-Apr-04 01-Mar-04
Found this in ambals.blogspot.com
The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806
According to the blogger 16k spillovers will take EB2I to March '09.
1. What is realistically possible for EB2I spillovers in FY 2014?
2. Around what spillover range will EB2I end up March or later? 12-13k? 16-17k? beyond 17k?
3. Is March 09 or beyond realistic?
Disclaimer: My pd is jan 2009 and hence the interest in likelihood of Q1 2009 EB2I movement.
p.s. Thanks to all for the matured discussion, very respectful here despite the anonymity which tends to evoke the basest instincts among internet denizens.