EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

Q,Spec/Gurus
I think the pending EB2I cases upto 15th June are around 16k.If you have 18k spillover and again some visas from EB1.What sould happen to EB2I in Oct?I think it should move and once they go beyond 15th June inventory,they may retrogress but not in October because they won't know how many new cases filed before next VB.

heloo - I may be wrong but I don't remember when was the last time EB2I dates moved forward in October.

Given that the country and category is backlogged, I would imagine that CO has already moved the dates to a point where visas wouldn't be wasted. That creates the potential that he may retrogress in October. I have already commented earlier on why I think Oct won't see any movement and possibly even Nov. I think Dec is when dates will move. But my guess is only as good as anybody else's. So would be glad if dates move forward in october.

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Originally Posted by helooo

Q,Spec/Gurus
I think the pending EB2I cases upto 15th June are around 16k.If you have 18k spillover and again some visas from EB1.What sould happen to EB2I in Oct?I think it should move and once they go beyond 15th June inventory,they may retrogress but not in October because they won't know how many new cases filed before next VB.

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Originally Posted by helooo

Q,Spec/Gurus
I think the pending EB2I cases upto 15th June are around 16k.If you have 18k spillover and again some visas from EB1.What sould happen to EB2I in Oct?I think it should move and once they go beyond 15th June inventory,they may retrogress but not in October because they won't know how many new cases filed before next VB.

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Whatever spillover is available either needs to be used this fiscal year (ends Sep 30, 2013) or is "wasted" (in reality it goes over to the FB quota). The movement to June 15 is definitely to mitigate the possibility of wastage. Also, I don't think you've accounted for porting in your 16K. By my math, its 8K (prior to Jan 1, 2008) + 8K (Jan 1- June 15) + 7K (porting)

In my opinion, there is zero chance of forward movement and 99.99% chance of retrogression in Oct.

PS: I know you are agonizingly close to the COD but I don't want to raise any hopes unnecessarily.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

How did you factor in 7K porting?

Is it because you assume 500 per month and 500*14 = 7K as EB2I was effectively unavailable for 14 months?

This makes the projection for next FY even worse. 5K will be left over and will cause immediate retrogression. 3K will be server from the regular quota. 2K will be leftover even after that. So 12K pure spillover is needed just to get the dates in 2009. This needs to happen without FB spillover!

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So its not 7K, its 5K. Point being is that heloo didn't have porting included. And yes, I do believe dates will only move to Jan 1, 2009 in FY14 based on the info we have right now. I will put a more detailed post at the beginning of Oct if more info comes out.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

In my opinion, there is zero chance of forward movement and 99.99% chance of retrogression in Oct.

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CO spoke did not talk about EB2I retrogression in Sep 2013 bulletin. I would say dates stay as it is until November or December bulletin and then retrogress. Can he bend the rules to assign the visa numbers now, so that USCIS can approve the cases after Oct 1st 2013. Not sure how that process works.

I know Jagan & Pedro had detailed discussion regarding Type 1 (Those who had EADs) & Type 2 (Those who never had EADs) porters. I am just trying to simplify few things. Experts please see below and advise if following assumptions are correct.

Facts about Type 1 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• Most of these type of porters must have applied for their 485 during July 2007 and received their EADs
• Type 1 porters never showed up in EB2 Demand or inventory. So there was not clear visibility of their numbers.
• Considering the COD of 15th June it is safe to say that most of these porters will get their GCs and clear out EB3 backlog somewhat.
• So for FY 2014 ideally there should not be any type 1 (Pre-15th June 2008) porters remaining.

Facts about Type 2 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)
• Unlike Type 1 this category will show up in EB2 Demand/Inventory.
• I understand there will be ‘fresh porters’ adding to demand for FY 2014. I guess experts predict the rate of 300/month for ‘fresh porting’.

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

It is a nice classification to understand the porting demand better for EB2(I).

Please note that with the EB3-ROW current, there would be fresh Type 1 porters (using AC21 after 6 months of 485 filing) that would consume the Fall across from Eb2-Row.

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Originally Posted by rosharma

I know Jagan & Pedro had detailed discussion regarding Type 1 (Those who had EADs) & Type 2 (Those who never had EADs) porters. I am just trying to simplify few things. Experts please see below and advise if following assumptions are correct.

Facts about Type 1 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• Most of these type of porters must have applied for their 485 during July 2007 and received their EADs
• Type 1 porters never showed up in EB2 Demand or inventory. So there was not clear visibility of their numbers.
• Considering the COD of 15th June it is safe to say that most of these porters will get their GCs and clear out EB3 backlog somewhat.
• So for FY 2014 ideally there should not be any type 1 (Pre-15th June 2008) porters remaining.

Facts about Type 2 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)
• Unlike Type 1 this category will show up in EB2 Demand/Inventory.
• I understand there will be ‘fresh porters’ adding to demand for FY 2014. I guess experts predict the rate of 300/month for ‘fresh porting’.

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

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I thought I would only start tracking not until the end of FY2014 given that my PD is June 2010 EB2I. But looking at the demand data/back log and the fact that there weren't a lot of filing in the year FY 2009, do you guys see a higher probability of above PD being current during the FY 2014?

To sportsfan's point, Is that why people are receiving NVC notices ahead of time? Any thoughts from gurus?

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Originally Posted by bloddy1

I thought I would only start tracking not until the end of FY2014 given that my PD is June 2010 EB2I. But looking at the demand data/back log and the fact that there weren't a lot of filing in the year FY 2009, do you guys see a higher probability of above PD being current during the FY 2014?

To sportsfan's point, Is that why people are receiving NVC notices ahead of time? Any thoughts from gurus?

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Date movement is a function of demand and supply. While its true that the 2009 demand is lower, the supply in FY14 is expected to be lower. I seriously doubt dates will move March 2009.

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Originally Posted by rosharma

It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)

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this is unknown at this point in time but as you point out, they will eventually be in the demand data.... most likely by Dec.

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So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

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Demand and inventory data by definition would not have "unknown demand" (otherwise it wouldn't be called unknown)

That being said there could still be pre-July 2007 folks who have not ported yet that might choose to do so. This number is still unknown.

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Originally Posted by rosharma

I know Jagan & Pedro had detailed discussion regarding Type 1 (Those who had EADs) & Type 2 (Those who never had EADs) porters. I am just trying to simplify few things. Experts please see below and advise if following assumptions are correct.

Facts about Type 1 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• Most of these type of porters must have applied for their 485 during July 2007 and received their EADs
• Type 1 porters never showed up in EB2 Demand or inventory. So there was not clear visibility of their numbers.
• Considering the COD of 15th June it is safe to say that most of these porters will get their GCs and clear out EB3 backlog somewhat.
• So for FY 2014 ideally there should not be any type 1 (Pre-15th June 2008) porters remaining.

Facts about Type 2 porters (Experts: Please correct me if I am wrong)

• It is highly unlikely that this category of porters will receive GC before the dates retrogress and will show up as demand for FY 2014 (experts can you please provide the number?)
• Unlike Type 1 this category will show up in EB2 Demand/Inventory.
• I understand there will be ‘fresh porters’ adding to demand for FY 2014. I guess experts predict the rate of 300/month for ‘fresh porting’.

So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

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Points are correct. I think where we disagreed was the number of type 2 porters. EB2 Demand/Inventory will show those numbers soon. I am expecting that there will at least be 5000 of these type 2 porters that will show up in the next Inventory report.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Points are correct. I think where we disagreed was the number of type 2 porters. EB2 Demand/Inventory will show those numbers soon. I am expecting that there will at least be 5000 of these type 2 porters that will show up in the next Inventory report.

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With next Inventory report we will not be able to differentiate ported numbers as old demand is already decreasing.
We will only be able to calculate ported numbers once DHS release the 2013 visa data.

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

With next Inventory report we will not be able to differentiate ported numbers as old demand is already decreasing.
We will only be able to calculate ported numbers once DHS release the 2013 visa data.

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I think the CO has already accounted for the type 1 porters and the current demand while moving the date ahead. Therefore the demand prior to June 2008 should be 0 considering a world where there are no type 2 porters. I would say that the new demand that will show up for pre June 2008 would be mostly constituted by type 2 porters.

Of course 2013 visa data will be more precise but my point is that if there were no type 2 porters then COs estimations should be close enough and backlog prior to June 2008 should be less than 4 digits. So if we see a demand of 6000 prior to June 2008 in the next inventory then most likely 5000 would have been added by type 2 porting.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

I think the CO has already accounted for the type 1 porters and the current demand while moving the date ahead. Therefore the demand prior to June 2008 should be 0 considering a world where there are no type 2 porters. I would say that the new demand that will show up for pre June 2008 would be mostly constituted by type 2 porters.

Of course 2013 visa data will be more precise but my point is that if there were no type 2 porters then COs estimations should be close enough and backlog prior to June 2008 should be less than 4 digits. So if we see a demand of 6000 prior to June 2008 in the next inventory then most likely 5000 would have been added by type 2 porting.

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Jagan and Gurus,

Is there a possibility of CO not accounted for some of the Type 1 porters while setting the SEP VB ? Its possible that some of them getting ported in AUG,SEP months and some might got new EB2 I-140 approved with old PD and can request for Interfile now. Any idea how much will be that count ?

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Originally Posted by Jun1308

Jagan and Gurus,

Is there a possibility of CO not accounted for some of the Type 1 porters while setting the SEP VB ? Its possible that some of them getting ported in AUG,SEP months and some might got new EB2 I-140 approved with old PD and can request for Interfile now. Any idea how much will be that count ?

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This is definitely possible. I know one case (my brother in law) has asked for premium processing for his I140 and expects to interfile next month. In any case, he has repeatedly said he cannot see the porting cases. I think the original estimation of approx 5-7k porting covers all such cases.

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So next demand data (& 485 inventory) for FY 2014 should not have any ‘unknown demand’. We should have some credible data for the experts to do more accurate number crunching.

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Rosharma,

It will take a couple of months for this demand to hit the demand data. As viz said, it should hit by the Dec release. Correct on all other points. As to 300 monthly porting, the dates will retrogress to a point where the organic porting demand is250 per month. We got 300 this month bcos of the FB spillover. Without that it's only 250 per month.

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Originally Posted by Jun1308

Jagan and Gurus,

Is there a possibility of CO not accounted for some of the Type 1 porters while setting the SEP VB ? Its possible that some of them getting
ported in AUG,SEP months and some might got new EB2 I-140 approved with old PD and can request for Interfile now. Any idea how much will be that count ?

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I believe CO accounted for almost all type 1 porters so far. He had 12 days worth of data which should have been comprehensive. The cases you mention will be the organic demand that will continue to be generated every month, but those numbers I believe will be small going forward. We'll know if I'm right based on how far the dates retrogress.

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

I believe CO accounted for almost all type 1 porters so far. He had 12 days worth of data which should have been comprehensive. The cases you mention will be the organic demand that will continue to be generated every month, but those numbers I believe will be small going forward. We'll know if I'm right based on how far the dates retrogress.

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We have discussed this in previous posts. Most people believe that CO has looked into type 1 porters while setting the date for Sep bulletin. So type 1 porters does not seem to be a real worry. Also from trackitt data there have been 66 applications of (type 1 + type 2) porters that filed I-485 in august so far. Spec can throw some light and tell how much this would translate to in real world.

There will be more type 1 and type 2 porters that will show up in September. type 2 porters in September will be a big number according to me. I am expecting that it will account for 5k additional applications that CO has not accounted for.

By the beginning of Oct we should have the trackitt data which will indicate the fresh I-485 filers (both type 1 and type2 porters). Once we have the trackitt numbers it would require some statistical analysis to tell us the number of porters that got in. Again, I think Aug month porters (people who filed 485 in august) are already accounted for by CO (thats what many here believe). Sept is an unknown zone for everyone.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

So its not 7K, its 5K. Point being is that heloo didn't have porting included. And yes, I do believe dates will only move to Jan 1, 2009 in FY14 based on the info we have right now. I will put a more detailed post at the beginning of Oct if more info comes out.

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Viz,

I am hoping that Jan 1, 2009 is a high level estimate. Once we hit Nov, we would have Oct inventory, demand, trackitt new I-485 applications, etc data to help us arrive to a better estimate. My date falls in Jan 2009 and would hate it to be Jan 2009. Hopefully Feb 2009 :)

Anytime I see Jan 2009, it scares the hell out of me...

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

We have discussed this in previous posts. Most people believe that CO has looked into type 1 porters while setting the date for Sep bulletin. So type 1 porters does not seem to be a real worry. Also from trackitt data there have been 66 applications of (type 1 + type 2) porters that filed I-485 in august so far. Spec can throw some light and tell how much this would translate to in real world.

There will be more type 1 and type 2 porters that will show up in September. type 2 porters in September will be a big number according to me. I am expecting that it will account for 5k additional applications that CO has not accounted for.

By the beginning of Oct we should have the trackitt data which will indicate the fresh I-485 filers (both type 1 and type2 porters). Once we have the trackitt numbers it would require some statistical analysis to tell us the number of porters that got in. Again, I think Aug month porters (people who filed 485 in august) are already accounted for by CO (thats what many here believe). Sept is an unknown zone for everyone.

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Jagan,

I hope these figures may help you.

Cases received by USCIS from August 2013 on Trackitt.

After August 2013
PD Year -- No.
2000 ------ 0
2001 ------ 0
2002 ------ 0
2003 ------ 0
2004 ------ 3
2005 ------ 2
2006 ------ 9
2007 ----- 64
2008 ------ 1 (assume this is a mistake - user ritre)
2009 ------ 0
2010 ------ 0
All ------ 79


Here's the breakdown of PD 2007 figure by month.

After August 2013
Month --- No.
Jan-07 --- 1
Feb-07 --- 1
Mar-07 --- 1
Apr-07 --- 2
May-07 --- 3
Jun-07 --- 3
Jul-07 --- 5
Aug-07 --- 5
Sep-07 --- 9
Oct-07 -- 12
Nov-07 -- 13
Dec-07 --- 9
Total --- 64

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Jagan,

I hope these figures may help you.

Cases received by USCIS from August 2013 on Trackitt.

After August 2013
PD Year -- No.
2000 ------ 0
2001 ------ 0
2002 ------ 0
2003 ------ 0
2004 ------ 3
2005 ------ 2
2006 ------ 9
2007 ----- 64
2008 ------ 1 (assume this is a mistake - user ritre)
2009 ------ 0
2010 ------ 0
All ------ 79


Here's the breakdown of PD 2007 figure by month.

After August 2013
Month --- No.
Jan-07 --- 1
Feb-07 --- 1
Mar-07 --- 1
Apr-07 --- 2
May-07 --- 3
Jun-07 --- 3
Jul-07 --- 5
Aug-07 --- 5
Sep-07 --- 9
Oct-07 -- 12
Nov-07 -- 13
Dec-07 --- 9
Total --- 64

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Spec,

Thanks for the figures. They sure are helpful. I see from the monthly data that most applications are coming from Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec 07. These are supposedly the type 2 porters who have never filed I-485.
As mentioned before several times on this forum, there is a bigger incentive for people post Aug 2007 to port to EB2 as they have never even received an EAD.

Can you "Speculate" how many applications would these 64 translate to in real world. I feel the trend will be similar with approximately 15 applications per month of type 2 porters post Aug 2007.

Hi Gurus,

Can you let me know is there any chances of movement in Oct Bulliten.
If yes then how many months we can expect.



Thanks,
Shreya

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Originally Posted by shreyasai2004

Hi Gurus,

Can you let me know is there any chances of movement in Oct Bulliten.
If yes then how many months we can expect.

Thanks,
Shreya

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Shreya,

If there is any movement in October, it will be backwards. I don't think there is any chance of the date advancing in October.

Agree w Spec. EB2I has zero chance of forward movement in Oct.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Shreya,

If there is any movement in October, it will be backwards. I don't think there is any chance of the date advancing in October.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Agree w Spec. EB2I has zero chance of forward movement in Oct.

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Q,

What about EB3-I? We all know it moved forward 9 months in spe bulletion. what will be the scenario for 2014? will it move forward or it will retrogress or stay there?

With the spill over capture and all other stuff, I still think atleast 1000 out of 7000 EB3-I applications that will be current in sep 2013 will be left unapproved becuase of USCIS inefficiency in processing the applications in time. Given that do you guys think the dates will retrogress or move forward couple of weeks every month going forward.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Jagan,

I hope these figures may help you.

Cases received by USCIS from August 2013 on Trackitt.

Here's the breakdown of PD 2007 figure by month.

After August 2013
Month --- No.
Jan-07 --- 1
Feb-07 --- 1
Mar-07 --- 1
Apr-07 --- 2
May-07 --- 3
Jun-07 --- 3
Jul-07 --- 5
Aug-07 --- 5
Sep-07 --- 9
Oct-07 -- 12
Nov-07 -- 13
Dec-07 --- 9
Total --- 64

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Spec, Are these all originally EB3 petitioners? If so, I can't think of any reason for Sep through Dec to be higher than August other than Jagan's point of greater motivation to port.

But before i concede that point, I'd like to confirm that there aren't any EB2 to EB2 porters in these figures, i.e., folks that had prior EB2 I140s but moved jobs before they could apply for their I485s in early 2012 and missed the boat at that time.

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Originally Posted by kalatta

Q,

What about EB3-I? We all know it moved forward 9 months in spe bulletion. what will be the scenario for 2014? will it move forward or it will retrogress or stay there?

With the spill over capture and all other stuff, I still think atleast 1000 out of 7000 EB3-I applications that will be current in sep 2013 will be left unapproved becuase of USCIS inefficiency in processing the applications in time. Given that do you guys think the dates will retrogress or move forward couple of weeks every month going forward.

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I will reply here. Lets move EB3 discussion here.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Date-Movements

Q/SPEC,

Based on Trackitt data which Spec posted couple of threads above, we have count of 69 new I485 applications filed in August 2013 for FY2007. As we all know Trackitt data is not near to complete accuracy, let us imagine total number of applications filed is 69*2= 138 new I485 applications. The count of 138 is far less than avarage monthly allocated visas i.e.238. So do you still think dates will retrogress for EB2I below Dec2007 in the future?
We have a bit of contradictory statements in earlier posts after COD moved to Jun152008, but I didn't get a chance to reply to those posts, in some posts it mentioned as date will retrogress in OCT bulletin and in some posts it was predicted as untill NOV/DEC dates will not retorgress. So, could you please share your insight on this.

Does anybody know Indiani/Dec2007 got their GC's? I wish they got it..and congrats to them.

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Q/SPEC,

Based on Trackitt data which Spec posted couple of threads above, we have count of 69 new I485 applications filed in August 2013 for FY2007. As we all know Trackitt data is not near to complete accuracy, let us imagine total number of applications filed is 69*2= 138 new I485 applications. The count of 138 is far less than avarage monthly allocated visas i.e.238. So do you still think dates will retrogress for EB2I below Dec2007 in the future?
We have a bit of contradictory statements in earlier posts after COD moved to Jun152008, but I didn't get a chance to reply to those posts, in some posts it mentioned as date will retrogress in OCT bulletin and in some posts it was predicted as untill NOV/DEC dates will not retorgress. So, could you please share your insight on this.

Does anybody know Indiani/Dec2007 got their GC's? I wish they got it..and congrats to them.

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NOV2007,

I think the figure was 64.

For 2007 PD the Trackitt % is about 10%, so that would represent 640 cases, if the % is maintained.

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Spec, Are these all originally EB3 petitioners? If so, I can't think of any reason for Sep through Dec to be higher than August other than Jagan's point of greater motivation to port.

But before i concede that point, I'd like to confirm that there aren't any EB2 to EB2 porters in these figures, i.e., folks that had prior EB2 I140s but moved jobs before they could apply for their I485s in early 2012 and missed the boat at that time.

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Pedro,

I have not analyzed the cases to determine which may be EB2-EB2 porters and which are EB3-EB2 porters.

If I tried, I suspect the profile information will not be complete and I don't fancy wading through all the individual posts to see if they have said anything more there.

Spec,

Thanks for your response.
Based on your assumption, 640 cases already filed in Aug2013. So its quite evident that EB2I date will retrogress in Oct bulletin itself and it would stand somewhere in 2004 /2005/2006. And people who are filing I485 for the first time i.e in Aug/Sep 2013 have no chance of sailing through till end of FY2014(Courtesy of some SO's).
Please correct me if am making wrong assumption.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

NOV2007,

I think the figure was 64.

For 2007 PD the Trackitt % is about 10%, so that would represent 640 cases, if the % is maintained.

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Originally Posted by NOV2007

Spec,

Thanks for your response.
Based on your assumption, 640 cases already filed in Aug2013. So its quite evident that EB2I date will retrogress in Oct bulletin itself and it would stand somewhere in 2004 /2005/2006. And people who are filing I485 for the first time i.e in Aug/Sep 2013 have no chance of sailing through till end of FY2014(Courtesy of some SO's).
Please correct me if am making wrong assumption.

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NOV2007,

Not necessarily.

Cases newly filed in August won't show as Demand to DOS until they are adjudicated by USCIS.

CO won't have visibility of them when he sets the October VB and they may not be adjudicated in October either, since that would mean approval in under 90 days.

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Spec, Are these all originally EB3 petitioners? If so, I can't think of any reason for Sep through Dec to be higher than August other than Jagan's point of greater motivation to port.

But before i concede that point, I'd like to confirm that there aren't any EB2 to EB2 porters in these figures, i.e., folks that had prior EB2 I140s but moved jobs before they could apply for their I485s in early 2012 and missed the boat at that time.

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Pedro,

I think if there are any EB2-EB@ porters they will surely be very few. The point being that thy might not want to push out their GC unnecessarily. Of course if there are extreme cases like Employer mistreatment / layoffs / etc then those will port from eb2-eb2. I think that will always be a mystery.

But the EB2-EB2 porting is an important concept that I did not think about earlier. Would the CO be anticipating any EB2-EB2 porting ? Let us say there were 8000 applicants in inventory before Jan 2008. In that case the ones that ported EB2-EB2 would not get visa this time. Thus the real demand is less than 8000 for this FY ? Any thoughts. I am quite curious to hear from people on this forum what their thoughts are about EB2-EB2 porters. Their numbers ? Their chances of getting greened ?

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

Pedro,

I think if there are any EB2-EB@ porters they will surely be very few. The point being that thy might not want to push out their GC unnecessarily. Of course if there are extreme cases like Employer mistreatment / layoffs / etc then those will port from eb2-eb2. I think that will always be a mystery.

But the EB2-EB2 porting is an important concept that I did not think about earlier. Would the CO be anticipating any EB2-EB2 porting ? Let us say there were 8000 applicants in inventory before Jan 2008. In that case the ones that ported EB2-EB2 would not get visa this time. Thus the real demand is less than 8000 for this FY ? Any thoughts. I am quite curious to hear from people on this forum what their thoughts are about EB2-EB2 porters. Their numbers ? Their chances of getting greened ?

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Jagan, The biggest source of EB2 to EB2 demand will be from neither mistreatment or layoffs, but from simply people moving to better opportunities without waiting for their GCs at their original sponsor. I have done this myself.

Anyway, while I have no idea what the EB2 to EB2 demand is, I don't expect it to be high. For that reason, I don't believe CO factors it into his calculations at all. Also, the majority of EB2 to EB2 applicants will not be in the inventory, because if they're in the inventory, they had a chance to apply for their I485, and if so, they'd probably just wait 180 days and move using AC21 rather than port (because porting requires you to redo PERM, I140 and a new I485 and so its a lot longer). There may be a few exceptions that had to move within the 180 day timeframe. Any of these porters will be treated exactly like an EB3 to EB2 porter, and is unlikely to get his green card before dates retrogress.

Spec, I apologize, I never intended to request that you dig through applications individually. I was just wondering if you had used such a filter in your search. I guess there isn't one. Thanks for the data.

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Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Spec, I apologize, I never intended to request that you dig through applications individually. I was just wondering if you had used such a filter in your search. I guess there isn't one. Thanks for the data.

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Pedro,

No apology needed. I'm sorry you took my comment out of context. I was really just reflecting that at the micro scale, the Trackitt data in the tracker is quite unreliable.

I often have to dig deeper into anomalous approvals to find the reason. Generally it turns out that information in the profile is either incorrect or incomplete.

EB-5 could slow down a little due to RBI rules
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/21923165.cms

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Originally Posted by civilengineer

EB-5 could slow down a little due to RBI rules
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...w/21923165.cms

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It's unlikely to have any effect.

EB5-India only accounted for 77 approvals last year out of 7,641 (1%).

Yes, civilengineer - for good or bad - that article is a joke.

Hello Guys,

I wanted to ask a quick question: do you know at what stage a visa number is assigned to your I485? Is it at last stage, just before they are done with all background check, other verifications & ready to approve ?

Once an application is documentarily qualified in all aspects, which includes successful completion of background checks, a visa is requested. if visas are available for the case, a visa number gets assigned and GC is issued. if visa numbers are not available the case at the time of request the case will remain in demand until visas are available.

Thanks Matt. So after finger printing is done, do we know how much time does it takes for background check and other things? I have used two names in my I485 application (other names used) so do you think my application will be delayed because of this?

Appreciate your opinion on this.