Thanks Spec! Good to see your old Avatar. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
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Thanks Spec! Good to see your old Avatar. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Nice to see EB3-I finally move forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I wanted to make some comments about the non-Indian Cut off Dates.
Employment Based
a) As expected, the EB3-WW Cut Off Date has stalled. I think it is possible it will retrogress in coming months.
b) EB3-Philippines has surpassed July 2007 for the first time with a large jump to 01NOV07.
c) Continued healthy forward movement for EB2-China.
Family Based
a) Fairly healthy forward movement in all Categories other than F2A.
b) The notes suggest that F2A-WW, which has been stuck at 08SEP13 for 8 months and F2A-Mexico, which was retrogressed over 16 months in March, are both likely to retrogress in coming months.
CO is slowly driving nails into the coffin of anyone who expects much in the way of extra FB numbers for EB next year. The vast majority of those extra visas have come from under use of F2A.Quote:
D. VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS
WORLDWIDE F2A: From early 2013 through September 2013, the level of demand for numbers in this preference category was extremely low. As a result, the F2A cut-off date was advanced at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limit could be fully utilized. As readers of the Visa Bulletin were advised during that time, such cut-off date advances were not expected to continue, and at some point they could stop, or retrogression might be required.
The level of demand being experienced for FY-2014 has resulted in the Worldwide F2A cut-off date being held since October. Despite no forward movement of the cut-off date, the level of demand has continued to increase dramatically. At the current rate, such demand will require a retrogression of the F2A cut-off date within the next several months. That action would be necessary to hold number use within the annual numerical limit.
MEXICO F2A: Despite an earlier retrogression of this cut-off date, the level of demand remains extremely heavy. As a result, it is likely that another retrogression of this cut-off date will be required to hold number use within the annual limit.
Friends,
May be this doesnt mean anything. My priority date is Nov 2009. The case status has changed from acceptance to initial review. I dont know if this was initiated by the recent change in address. I am a physician and moved from RI to MA with a new employer after completing almost 5 years and 9 months for physician NIW. The requirements for completion of 5 years in medically underserved area was submitted last July. Any thoughts?
My status changed too after address change. I believe that is Standard Operating Procedure.
So technically it looks like the spillover from FB to EB may go down due to the high demand :-(. That is a bummer. Doubt if there will be any status quo in the next 3 years or so. The wait just gets longer and more frustrating.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I was expecting this might happen in 2nd half and I believe from here on EB3-I will get its monthly quota till the end of the year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The reason behind this is that as per my estimate, the EB3-I got its 6 months of visa allocations during 1st week of the FY14 and there was a mention of this in 07-Oct-13 DD:
But nobody knows what were those numbers they have allocated for EB2-I & EB3-I on 01-Oct-2013 and continued processing the cases till Nov'13.Quote:
The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.
I tried to estimate those numbers with some assumptions in unconventional way and found this:
Attachment 548
So with new calculations,where do you think EB2I will move in July VB?Thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
helooo,Quote:
Originally Posted by helooo
My own feeling is it will remain unchanged in July. I think it will move in the August VB, as it did last year. It is also what CO suggested in late November 2013.
Quote:
• It is very possible that in August or September 2014, the last two months of the 2014 fiscal year, EB-2 India will advance again to around December 2008. However, that is only an educated guess at this time. No exact date is certain.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
My take on this:
I feel it is a temporary halt and we may see further movements in the coming months. I'm NOT seeing any red flags to retrogress. Do you see any?
From I-485 processing data I see NO spikes in new Reciepts due to this forward movement but I see there is pending inventory has risen from 50k to 81k during Oct'13 to Jan'14 period and I'm assuming those pending files includes the EB1 485s also due to processing delays. Preadjucated case are at rock bottom (probably those are just EB2-I, EB3-I & EB2-C cases). previously we used to see 100k of preadjucated cases but now left with 65k.
Also, from your PERM data, CY 2010 was the lowest point for the EB-ROW PERM approvals and the trend reversed from CY11, probably here after the forward movement might become slow but NOT completly halted or retrogressed.
YT,Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
My take.
EB3-ROW have seen a large increase in the number of approvals in the last two months and are now well ahead of where they need to be at this stage IMO. The number of remaining pending cases now appears more than sufficient for EB3-ROW to meet the maximum they can receive.
Unless the Service Centers stop (or severely slow) processing EB3-ROW cases, demand will outstrip remaining supply, which will necessitate retrogression before the end of the FY.
On the subject of the Service Centers, has anyone else noticed they seem to have almost stopped approving I-485 cases completely (as judged by Trackitt). NSC went to sleep some time ago, but now TSC seem to have joined them. In what is now nearly 7 working days out of 22 in April, there are only 13 total approvals on Trackitt and 6 of those were on a single day. Compare that to the 237 approvals in 21 working days in March, or 173 in 19 working days in February.
EB2-ROW has received very few approvals this year, despite an apparently very large number of pending cases. Two thirds of those have now been pending more than 4.5 months.
Spec,
Nice to have you back.
On the slow down regarding the EB2-ROW I- 485 approvals, is it not better for EB2-India & China in general. I guess I am being selfish, but here a couple of questions.
1. As Q & YT have pointed out earlier regarding EB2-ROW PERM slow approval rate and now what you are indicating regarding EB2-ROW 485 approval rate, is that not a double whammy for
EB2-ROW.
2. Also will the CO notice this and try to move the dates earlier for EB2-India & China so that no visas are wasted.
Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
shekhar,Quote:
Originally Posted by shekhar_kuruk
1) Yes, it would be a double whammy, but it is not sustainable IMO. Frankly, I am expecting to see "a month of EB2-ROW" similar to the "month of EB1" we have just seen.
2) Quite the opposite IMO. CO will know the numbers are out there for EB2-ROW. The slower they get approved, the longer he will have to wait to move EB2-I. USCIS were able to process 15k EB2-I in Aug/Sep 2013 and at least another 5k EB3-I in Sep 2013, so he can afford to wait. EB3-I won't be a concern this year, and I think it unlikely that there will be enough spare visas for USCIS to have to process an additional 20k EB2-I cases before the end of the FY.
The slow processing rate at the Service Centers is definitely a concern - let's see how it evolves over the next 3 months.
YT, you rock!!! Great work and fantastic presentations. Thank you.
Spec, welcome back (sniff sniff). Great to see your return. I was catching up on the posts, Q kinda teased your return with something about "Spec-The-Great" and then a few posts later, bam, I saw yours. When you left I didn't get a chance to say thank you and goodbye. I have sleeping disorders induced by immigration anxiety. This forum is my rock and I find solace from information on this forum to some extent, especially your posts. It hasn't been the same without you (not belittling others at all) and it's very comforting to have you back. I truly appreciate your contributions; Thank You.
I might as well pour out all the negatives in one go. I won't apologize for doing so, since I think it is useful to discuss all scenarios.
In a previous post, I said that the potential retrogression of all F2A and potential further retrogression of F2A-Mexico is not a good sign for EB receiving extra FB numbers next year.
If that turns out to be the case, then I think it will be very difficult for CO to repeat what he did this FY and leave the Cut Off Dates for EB2-I at a late date for the first couple of months of the new FY.
If EB only has 140k available, the amount of SOFAD available to EB2-I is likely to be quite low. CO will not be able to use most (or all) of that in the first 2 months of the FY.
This FY, CO had the luxury of knowing that around 10k extra FB numbers would be available to EB and that, maybe 7k of that would eventually be available to EB2-I, for at least 10k minimum with the initial allocation.
If there are no extra FB numbers in FY2015, CO would have to assume EB2-I could have as little as 3k available to them. A fairly early Cut Off Date would consume 3k during the year purely from upgrade cases.
Lots of "ifs", I agree, but worth considering.
Spec- I agree with the FB scenario. But IMHO CO's decision to not retrogress dates immediately in Oct/Nov has nothing to do with FB spillover. I think he just needs enough data to justify any action and I actually applaud him for that. Year 2014 data was not going to come in at least until early november so the earliest bulletin we can see retrogression is Dec. I think that's what will happen even for 2015 - FB spillover won't be a factor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I kind of find a common ground between both of your arguments. I think we need to focus on both supply and demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Supply:
As Spec pointed out, FB spillover will reduce. This will make CO cautious of the fact that spillover might not be great. Last year he had some confidence that there will be FB spillover and hence ended up using more than the annual quota of Eb2I in the first few months.
Demand:
I believe that demand will be a game changer. There will be lesser porters compared to the number that ported and filed I-485 last year. CO made the retrogression when he saw unprecedented demand in early Nov from porters that had actually applied in Aug/Sep and their applications became pre-adj and started showing up. The demand that CO will see in Nov will be a factor of:
- How far does he move the dates in Sep (For ex. Jan 2009 might not leave as many pending as May 2009)
- Porting demand (Porting demand will be lesser if the movement is smaller. For ex , if dates get moved to Jan 2009 then there will be new porters mainly between Jun 2008 to Jan 2009)
I personally feel that whether the retrogression happens in Oct / Nov / Dec really depends on how farther the date ends up being in Sep.
Jagan - demand supply will certainly figure into who consumes how much and how much spillover if any goes to backlogged countries/categories.
But when CO is going to move the dates -remember that he has to work with a set of laws and his own operational procedures. He can't move the dates on a whim. I am sure he has established certain thresholds. That's why I said - the only time he can make an informed decision to move dates is when data about current year consumption is made available sometime in November. Which means the earliest he can retro is in December bulletin. I think that's exactly what he did last year and will do this year.
However I agree that I do not have any proof - this is rather logical thinking on my part. Reality could be different.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Spec - good to see you back.
I had a question about inventory data sometime back. Where do you think the numbers for November/December in the latest inventory data come from for EB1 India? Since EB1C does not allow premium processing, how are these numbers so high? any ideas?
Hey .. glad to see you Spec.
gcpursuitQuote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
Firstly, I really wouldn't get hung up about certain figures in certain boxes in the USCIS Inventory. There have always been inconsistencies in the data. It could just be data entry errors. I agree they look strange, but I don't think there is a way to resolve the inconsistency. I think the overall number is probably correct - I might suspect some of the monthly numbers.
Secondly, the DHS numbers discussed in the original posts were not comparing "apples to apples".
Jagan is aware of this.
The DHS data quoted in the original post was for primary applicants only, whereas the USCIS Inventory numbers include dependents.
Taking the DHS data for FY2012 as an example:
EB1A ------------- 3,569 -- 21.91%
EB1B ------------- 3,394 -- 20.84%
EB1C ------------- 9,323 -- 57.25%
Primary total –-- 16,286
Spouses --------- 12,555
Children -------- 10,475
Dependent total – 23,030
Grand total ----- 39,316
The dependent ratio has remained fairly constant at about 1.4 dependents per primary approval for many years for EB1.
The DHS data does not split the dependents by the subcategories.
If the dependents are spread proportionally across the sub-categories based on primary approvals then on average, if EB1 received 40,000 approvals, the rough spread would be (if new applications were spread evenly each month)
EB1A -- 9,000 – about 750 per month
EB1B -- 9,000 – about 750 per month
EB1C - 22,000 – about 1,835 per month
The DHS data does not subdivide the data by Country.
Quick question for the forum. I think I know the answer but I'd like to tap the collective wisdom of the members here.
I work in management consulting for a Big 4 company. I have an opportunity come my way from a large investment bank to do essentially the same work but internally (i.e. an internal consultant). How would this affect my GC given the job description requirements?
My PD is Aug 2008 so I'm a little skittish about making drastic moves but this is in that gray area.
Viz - On this topic I think you already know enough. So I will only give you my perspective to think and you make the decision.
Your best bet to get a GC is July - worst is September. So if you wait until then - then post GC you are going to wonder whether you should make a move within or after 6 months.
So now the time horizon of career switch shifts from April i.e., today to sometime Jan-Mar next year. Will the same or similar opportunity come your way then? Is current opportunity eligible for AC21? You decide Viz! But whatever you do - we all wish you the best!
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Nicely said Q. Really on the dot!!!
If I were you viz i would take it unless I'm confident I'll be able to get a similar one whenever I start looking again.
Viz, you have been long enough so I won't say anything more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks Q and Venkat. My wife and I just had our first child so the prospects of doing the same work but not having to travel is enticing. I figure I'll atleast give it a shot and talk to few immigration lawyers to get their perspective.
Congratulations on your little one Viz. Go ahead with your new offer.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Viz this is an important time in your life. It looks like you should go ahead and do the switch. Congrats again. How old is the little one now?
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Congrats Viz on your child.
The most important lawyer to get your opinion would be the one in your proposed new job (hopefully they have an immigration attorney/team). Because in the unfortunate case of any RFE he would be the one who will be representing the case. I would suggest take the offer but inform the HR that you want to personally talk to the immigration lawyer to clarify few things. This way you know for sure.
I'll tell you 9 out 10 will be OK with your scenario. All the Best!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
@ Viz
Exactly my situation last year. I was in a similar dilemma all I did was PM Q and MAtt2012 got their views and made a switch didnt bother filing AC 21 since I didnt want to send any notifications to USCIS without being asked for it. Meanwhile my H1B was cancelled ( I made the switch on EAD) and I got a H1B revoke letter from USCIS . I was 100 % sure that I would get an RFE on my current employment status but nothing happened and I got my GC without any issues on Sep 12th 2013 . So I would suggest you make the switch ( I remember Q bhai's words to me " We are in this country for a better life and better career opportunities - That is priority everything else secondary"
Vizcard - Congratulations on the baby and the job offer. I will chime in with the others - you should definitely take up the offer. Right now is as good a time as any. As Q said, if you wait then you would want to wait for 6 months at least post-GC as well - so do it now. I am familiar with travel demands of your industry - I am sure that you will find your new job much more compatible with the demands of taking care of the new baby.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Perm data for 2nd Quarter 2014 is available now ......http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...cedata.cfm#dis
The PERM Fact Sheet for Q2 FY2014 was also released http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...FY_2014_Q2.pdfQuote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I found a few test records in the disclosure data, which is pretty unprofessional IMO. I have removed them for my analysis.
All the PERM data posts in FACTS & DATA have been updated to reflect the Q2 FY2014 figures.
The numbers and breakdown for Q2 were:
CHINA -------- 1,189 --- 6.94%
INDIA -------- 9,456 -- 55.21%
MEXICO --------- 322 --- 1.88%
PHILIPPINES ---- 474 --- 2.77%
ROW ---------- 5,687 -- 33.20%
Grand Total - 17,128 - 100.00%
The breakdown for Q1 was:
CHINA ---------- 642 --- 7.08%
INDIA -------- 5,083 -- 56.03%
MEXICO --------- 281 --- 3.10%
PHILIPPINES ---- 210 --- 2.31%
ROW ---------- 2,856 -- 31.48%
Grand Total -- 9,072 - 100.00%
This could be a double whammy for India. PERM speeds up and the percentage I+C decreases ( 62%). If I remember correctly it was 65% in Q1 also which means in Q2 it was ~ 60%
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Originally Posted by Spectator
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Originally Posted by imdeng
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Originally Posted by venki080
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Originally Posted by venkat
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Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks all for your wishes. My girl is 3 weeks today.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
It's an opportunity yet not an offer but they contacted me so they see the skills. My dilemma was stemming from whether I should even meet the SVPs and COO and then turn it down for immigration reasons. Might burn some bridges there which I would hate doing.
Hi Viz
I understand where you are coming from. I have been in this situation last year. I had interacted with VP of an organization where they wanted to hire some one. I did not want to discuss with him about immigration aspects at that level and burn the relationship and/or bridges. I went ahead and hired an independent lawyer myself and explained my situation. Luckily attorney reasoned out that it is fit for AC-21 type of scenario and it is absolutely fine to switch.
I then continued my discussion with VP and other higher ups and took the offer. Only during the HR discussions, I told them that I might need AC-21 (EVL) as well as future EVL if USCIS asks for it. I also told them that I do not need an attorney support as I have hired my own. Then they went back to their HR managers as well as their attorney (this is just my guess) and came back agreeing to that, since VP liked me any way.
I have since switched and as expected the old company cancelled H1B that I was on, but I never received any RFE and also was able to successfully submit the AC-21 and Address Change (which is acknowledged by USCIS by updating all my cases like I140, I485 etc.).
Just thought to provide the complete scenario and it is fine to go ahead with the offer if that helps both family life as well as career growth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
As expected the number is on the higher side. I am hoping that there wont be as many I-485 applications filed by EB2ROW. Hopefully the fast movement in EB3ROW will mean that lesser porting for EBROW. Am just wondering whether there might be many EB3ROW who might have filed PERM to port to EB2ROW but by the time the PERM was approved they might have been current with EB3ROW date. In that case they might not really use the certified PERM and would be counted against EB3ROW and not EB2ROW :)Quote:
Originally Posted by redwood
I wanted to reply to a couple of points raised recently:
-EB2-ROW doing PP: There is a strong preference to do PP. Applicants can "smell the finish line" and are willing to pay the extra $ to get a green card earlier. Also, when filing concurrently your I-485 with and I-140 with PP the packet does not go to the lockbox, rather the whole thing is mailed to the PP unit. Anecdotes suggest this results in an earlier fingerprint appointment and therefore an earlier EAD/AP.
-EB-2 PERM slowdown: PD up to 08/2012 saw PERMs processed in two months. By PD 01/2013 it had grown to four months and since about 4/2013 it ballooned to 7 months. I have seen little evidence of this trend getting any better.
-EB-2 I-485 slowdown: In early 2013 an I-485 could be approved in 3 months. Around that time the waiting period for I-130s had grown to more than 15 months (this is because the units that processed I-130s were processing DACA). USCIS responded by transferring I-130s from VSC/CSC to TSC/NSC and this may explain why the I-485s started to slow down in early 2014. Frankly, while DACA is around I expect USCIS to have "glitches" in processing. I would not be surprised if they decide to dump the I-130s back to CSC/VSC to clear room to approve I-485s come the August/September crunch.
Good points all. I had to google DACA - for others like me, it refers to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals. It seems more than 500K applicants were given EAD through DACA. These are 2 year EADs which will come up for renewal in 2014. At $465 per application and renewal, USCIS is making decent money on this process too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
The majority of DACAs will expire in early 2015, but you are right, the very first renewals will be in late 2014. Who knows how USCIS will respond to that! I would not be shocked if we go back to the days of two year AOS - CP may become a very attractive option.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
My EAD is up for renewal on Dec 1, 2014 i.e. 4 months prior to expiry. I hope I get mine in time. I have the 2 yr EAD/AP combo.
What happens if we don't' get EAD on time; can we continue to work?
No. You cannot.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
You must stop working right after your EAD expired and wait for EAD approval. You are lawfully permitted to do so and protected by AoS pending status less status.