Local congressman+ Good attorney is what you need, try as hard as you can , I think you still have window of oppurtunityQuote:
Originally Posted by garihc27
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Local congressman+ Good attorney is what you need, try as hard as you can , I think you still have window of oppurtunityQuote:
Originally Posted by garihc27
I would suggest to CO to use trackitt PERM tracker for getting an idea about ROW PERM approvals and move EB2 (I) accordingly . If our folks can predict accuratelyQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
with those kind of information, he can as well use it. better than dealing with inter department rivalry from DOL.
I have always posted my opinion that I think dates will have to retrogress in oct in order for CO to follow the law and rules but as Q and others believe that dates might stay same in October ( which if happens will not surprise me) and you have already explained in detail the scenarios.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
LOL... CO have lot better data available than trackitt .Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlet
If CO would have been very logical and careful we wouldn't end up in these chaotic situations over and over again
From everything I have gathered and learned so far, the nuances of supply/demand analysis that goes into accurately predicting cutoff dates is no trivial task. Yet, the gurus here mastered this analysis - and I am truly astounded with the level of detail and accuracy on this forum.
Q, Spec, Indiani, Teddy, Matt and everyone else that contributes on a regular basis - thank you and hats off to you. I am one of the lucky few that became current in September 2013 and I relied heavily on your analysis during the build up to the bulletins - learned a lot in the process.
Good luck to all of you in your future endeavors (hopefully, your GC is simply a stepping stone to greater and more fulfilling success) and may many others benefit from your wonderful work. As for me, I'll stick around for a few months/years - however long it takes to finally see some Green!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
@Kanmani - you were pretty close. Hope you are enjoying your India trip.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
garihc - i am sorry i really dont know much about this. But I wish you well and really hope your case gets going and resolves positively.Quote:
Originally Posted by garihc27
indiani - I actually have same thoughts as Spec. The only reason I am very very confident October won't see any retrogression whatsoever is because retrogression is based on demand supply imbalance. CO needs at least one month data for FY 2014 to make a decision on retrogression.Quote:
Originally Posted by indiani
If the unadjudicated backlog of EB2I is more than 3K - then we sure will see retrogression. In fact think this way - the retrogression will happen to a point where EB2I backlog is 3K. Now that depends on how the backlog is cleared between now and Sep 30!! So at this time it is very difficult to estimate anything. But I guess I am reasonably confident that Oct shoudlnt see any retro movement.
Jagan, I promised a more detailed response but I'd not anticipated how busy you've been today, so it's taken me a while.
I've responded to each of your posts below, but I'm going to explain how I think of the process. I expect you already know this but i'm spelling it out to avoid confusion.
a) Whenever dates move, EB3 to EB2 porting is composed of pent up demand component (your type 1 porters who have moved jobs, have interfiled, are preadjudicated and are ready for a visa number, or your type 2 porters who have filed the new PERM, new I140 and are ready with their EB2 I485), and if the dates stay steady, there is an organic demand component generated each month (people with EB3 PDs before the EB2 current date that have completed an interfile application or have a new I140 approved).
b) The path forward for EB2 in the current environment is likely to be one where the dates move every Q4 and then retrogress the following Q1 and stay steady so that the organic demand generated is fulfilled by the 250 regular visa numbers available to EB2I each month pre spillover. Then in Q4 spillover comes in which will allow dates to move sufficiently forward to meet the existing EB2 demand and the pent up EB3 porting demand until that date. Your type 2 porters (who have never filed an I485 application) will take some time to receive their green cards, and will likely not get it because dates will retrogress before then. So they may not be incorporated in COs calculations when he moves the dates forward (Because he doesn't want to waste visa numbers since they won't be processed in time). However, they will be noted in the demand data as soon as their applications are preadjudicated so they will be known for the following year's spill over. This is what has happened in FY2013.
I think your assumption is that dates will retrogress significantly in Q12014 and then move in Aug 2014 to Oct 2008 by which time demand of 12K will materialize before Oct 1 2008. Since there is currently 4.5k of inventory between June 15 and Oct 1 2008 and since you are assuming 2K unfufilled demand pre Jun 15th (which excludes your type 2 porting for the reasons i mentioned above), you are assuming unfulfilled porting demand before retrogression and pent up new porting demand will be 5.5k in total. Also, I guess this 12K will only use spill over and not the regular 3K EB2I supply?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
The 700 per month that would have ported had the EB2I PD always been at June 2008 are mostly incorporated in CO's calculations when he moved the dates to June 15, 2008. Only the 5K that you think have already ported post Aug 2007 are not, and this ties to the 5.5K figure i calculated above. I think it is high, but it is internally consistent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Two things happened, a) he tried out quarterly spillover which came to bite him on his backside as EB2Row ran out of visa numbers and had a cut off date imposed and b) he wanted to build an inventory because if he waited until the end of the year he would have had insufficient EB2I applications in the queue to use up all the spill over.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
You believe porting is going to be a steady stream every month until all EB3I applicants either receive their GCs from EB3 supply or port to EB2. I disagree. I think most people who want to and can port before June 2008 will have already ported by Sep 2008 (or be preadjudicated and incorporated in the demand data). The incremental organic porters will be far fewer than 300 pre Sep 2004 . I dont have any calculations at the moment, but my gut says the EB2 dates will retrogress to somewhere in mid 2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
And surely my knowledge of the process can't come across as being so rudimentary as you imply above.
1) Your type 1 porters will not be available in the inventory. When they interfile and if their dates are current they will receive their green cards immediately. The organic type 1 porters will be met through the monthly visa numbers available, and the pent up type 1 porters just use up visa numbers from the spill over and get their GCs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
2) 2K of type 1 porters in addition to the 3K regular EB2I supply (which will also be used by type 1 porters), would indicate 5K of porting just pre Aug 2007 which is around what we're assuming for FY2013. You have to be pretty pessimistic to think that's going to stay the same for the same period (pre Aug 2007). PErhaps your 2K is not in addition to the 3K regular EB2 availability?
3) Of the trackitt numbers you pulled, the first 97 will have an EB3 I485 so they'll get their green cards in August 2013. CO has a very good idea of their numbers because he waited 12 days to release the VB.
4) The other 75 (so about 1.2k after applying the 6% figure) are a part of the 2K that you expect not to get their GCs before the numbers retrogress.
5) You wanted to research trackitt to answer how many type 2 porters with PDs before OCt 2008 would generate pent up demand before Aug 2014. The position of people on this forum that have researched the subject is that there are fewer EB3Is with 2008PDs than with 2007PDs so then the total porting figure pre Oct 2008 would be significantly < 6K (which is the expectation for 2013). I don't think you have looked into that. I haven't either.
If he held the dates constant and more applications are processed than he can give monthly 250 visa numbers to, he will have to retrogress the dates, or use quarterly spill over to meet the demand. He can't just do nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
As Spec pointed out, CO has sufficient EB2I inventory. He will also have plenty of understanding of porting demand by then based on this summer's applications, so he can make a pretty good educated guess about how far to move dates in August 2014.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
That's a long post but i wanted to address all of your points.
Let us parse this important para from the visa bulletin:
The last sentence says that if you take action on your application then CO will assign a visa number irrespective of whether you documentarily qualify - just to use up the quota. So when the cut-off date is applied, your case will not be affected and it will still be smooth sailing for you. Essentially admitting that F2A quota will not be fully utilized.Quote:
D. VISA AVAILABILITY
FAMILY-sponsored:
F2A: This category was made “Current” in an effort to generate new demand for the upcoming fiscal year. Information received during discussions with the National Visa Center and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services indicates that this action is already having the intended result. Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October. This cut-off is unlikely to have any negative impact on those who have already initiated action on their case prior to the announcement of the October cut-off dates.
This tells me that EB quota will receive additional visas from FB quota in next fiscal year. It may not be 18K like this year but it certainly will greater than zero.
Now lets look at the following sentence
This is in contradiction to what is discussed above. The cut-off date will come into picture only if the pending demand + new demand > 1/12 of the total quota. So this is either a hope or a wish or a statement made to err on the conservative side.Quote:
Therefore, it is likely that a cut-off will be imposed for October.
In conclusion, in all probability the FY 14 EB quota most likely will exceed 140K. This is good news for all concerned.
PS: I know all of us are eager to know what will happen with EB2-I come Oct 2013. But please be patient. Mostly like what Spec said will happen. The predictions on this forum are made on the consensus of the statements made by CO, inventory, trackitt data etc. First order of action is to parse the bulletin to eliminate scenarios based on CO's statements. Analysis like above needs to be made for EB3-ROW (wildcard, lower demand will swing things positively for EB3-I and hence EB2-I), then EB2-C (easiest category to predict, will end up near AUG 2009 by Sept 2014), then PERM trends (approvals may pick up after sequestration ends on Sept 30 2013 resulting in higher demand for EB2-ROW and porting) and then inventory (validation of all theories and visa consumption). Finally after all this we can form a consensus on the date movement for next fiscal year.
Kd - you are missing the first sentence though. CO clearly says that he made it current to generate demand. To me that means it's not a sustainable forward movement.
They being said we may get some FB overflow but it will not move the needle significantly.
Gurus,
I see that there is lot of discussions about EB2-I movement and predictions, but not a lot for EB-3I. I think the movement of 9 months in sep 2013 bulletin for EB3-I is significant. Because of this I think the EB3-I also needs a prediction for FY2014 form gurus. Please chime in your thoughts.
Thanks Spec. Perfect explanation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chewbaca
Q and I have disagreed a few times. I think spec already pretty eloquently explained why dates would retrogress in oct. Sure there are things CO could do that won't retrogress in Oct such as "borrow" from other categories. But what you borrow has to be returned and that creates major issues.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
I believe dates will retrogress to mid 2006. Ofcourse this depends on how far the backlog gets cleared up. Theoretically there should not be any demand pre-July 2007 after this FY but we know that's not realistic.
Specifically for Jagan - there is absolutely no need to build inventory. Keeping dates where they are means you actually have to approve cases not just take in new applications. The laws prevent CO from exceeding limits but don't say anything about USCIS workers not being busy because of lack of cases to work on. (I don't believe the USCIS workers are actually idle but I was trying to make a point).
Finally, my personal hope is that ppl who are current now and have previously filed actually get their GC. Not getting it after being current is probably worse than just missing the COD. I don't want to be a Debbie-downer in this time when ppl are happy they are current. But there is a very real possibility that some of those current won't get it this year particularly those closer to the COD. So I wouldn't make any major life altering decisions until you get that 2inch x 3inch (more or less) piece of plastic in your hand.
Vkkpnm,Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
You're welcome.
I'm not so sure it as an explanation. Rather, it indicates some of the variables to be considered and what a difficult task it is for CO.
If EB had sufficient numbers, it would not be a problem.
Thanks Viz. really appreciate your opinion on this.
All Gurus,Q,Spec,Indiani,Viz
Discussion is good but its all theoretical and CO can surprise you any time.What is the best case scenario for EB2I in coming months?
This rapid movement had to happen at some point since everyone considered Eb3-To-Eb2 porting was happening all the time. Probably USCIS/DOS has factored in these porting cases to EB3 inventory only now. Hope this trend continues for EB3 !Quote:
Originally Posted by kalatta
Please don't expect a 9 month movement every time. I think this is one a time deal for atleast the next year. I expect EB3I to retrogress in Oct but then consistently move forward in small bits (may be a month or 2 months at a time) once a quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
As I mentioned previously, I expect EB2I to retrogress in Oct but again start movement possibly in April depending on how EB1 and EB2WW is trending from the first 6 months. I am cautiously optimistic that the movement for this Sept is truly because of lower "real" demand vs just a processing delay.
A comment on porting - nything EB3 that's post July 2007 i.e. those applying for the first time, will show up in EB2 demand. I believe there will be fewer surprises and the movement in FY14 will be more informed. I also believe that the amount of porting overall will be close to the same in real numbers although the window is probably smaller i.e in most cases only PDs up to oct 2008 will be eligible for EB2 to make it in to the FY14 quota.
gcq and vizcard thanks for the comments. Seriously I don't expect the EB3-I to move 9 months every time and it is not practically possible with a finite set of visa numbers, spillover rule change and EB2 demand and retrogression, if it does it will be dream come true for lot of EB3-I people struggling for long time.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
What I would like to understand is the current EB3-I date movement has already taken in to account of available FY 2014 visa numbers or this movement is only because of the spillovers from other categories and countries from FY 2013
gcq - EB2I will be crushed if this trend continues in EB3 (just an observation - not a criticism). 9 months movement = approx 14-18K applicants. 3K is usual quota. 3K is porting. So where did the rest go? So this movement itself is suspicious for me. I fear that EB3I will have to retro.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
My theory is that there wasn't enough demand in EB3 to consume the family spillover of 6k and to avoid wasting visa numbers EB3-I was advanced to utilize those numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
tiger - it is easier to talk in terms of numbers here because then that easily tells you why something moved or didn't and whether it will move or not and in which direction!Quote:
Originally Posted by tiger_of_web
Porting has been going on forever. Gurus on this forum might have started estimating it only recently. Wouldn't people be porting since decades ? It is not a new phenomenon. multiply 3K times 7 years, it easily crosses 18K. The problem is USCIS was considered all these as pending inventory though these were absent all these years. IMO it may not go back. Again I am not a guru in prediction, just a guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree, this may be a one time event. However I expect it to stay at the current date and proceed slowly as before, not retrogress. We may get tiny surprises a few months down the lane or it may not happen at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
porting has been going on for a while. its the natural course of business (what Spec likes to call the conveyor belt). the difference is that in 2012, EB2 leaped forward thus bringing in a larger than usual number of porting cases and this became more significant as non-FB SOFAD was limited (again primarily because of EB2WW retrogression in 2012). the proportion of porting approvals this year will be much higher than in other years. I don't have the actual numbers but thats what my gut feel tells me.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
Agreed porting was not needed in older days when everyone was stuck up in labor stage, me being one of them. Dates were current because of labor backlog not because of people not needing visa numbers. July fiasco changed all that with backlog elimination centers for labor. Now the bottle neck moved to I-485 stage. Also EB3-I was stuck at April-2001 for years. At least since 2007, porting would have been happening. 6 years have passed since 2007 and gurus have estimated around 3000 porting per year. That explains 18K inventory that should have been reduced from EB3 side.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
To move to EB2 lane, EAD is not needed. After 140 is approved, one one could start a new EB2 applications with older EB3 PD preserved. EAD gives lot of freedom, but not a per-requisite for porting.
Porting might have gained steam recently, but also consider the fact the fewer and fewer people are applying in EB3 nowadays.
OK. I believe we are trying to reason how Eb3-I moved by 9 months. Here's what I think:Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I believe that EB3-I was very close to utilizing its yearly quota by June/July and i base this on the fact that the movement was stopped in Aug bulletin.
Now, Based on 485 inventory published by USCIS, demand till 22Sep03 should be roughly 6500. Porting deduction by 40% will leave the demand to ~4000. Where will this 4000 come from? I believe there wasnt enough materialized demand in EB3 to utilize the 6k spillover (as the EB3 dates moved significantly only around april/may). Some might be utilized by china and very little by ROW, but the majority will go to India and EB3-I wont retrogress from this date.
gcq - we have been estimating porting since 2010 when we started this blog. Indeed people have been porting for quite some time now. So I looked at the data.
Here is the situation:
Oct 2012 EB3I prior to Sep 2003 - 10.5K
Jul 2013 EB3I prior to Sep 2003 - 6.5K
4K is already more than the quota.. So imagine the rest is porting. 6.5K were remaining as of July. It's impossible all of them have ported post Jul 2012.
Yet CO moved the date ... so either give them visas or retro the date. There is NO third alternative here gcq. Right?
p.s. - Spec - you are right on your "absolutely criminal" comment. It looks like EB3I will benefit at the cost of EB3ROW. Only a guess as of now. I am not certain. But otherwise dates must retro for them. I cant see a third alternative.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
Sportsfan33, mostly I agree with you but just for the sake of argument I would like to point out a couple of things.
Firstly for Eb3-I people with EADs, to port they still have to find an employer who will do the entire GC process. They don't need the H1 though and have more bargaining power as you point out. But still need GC sponsoring employer.
Secondly regarding motivation one can say that someone with a PD of say March-2008 in EB3 without an EAD and without even any prospect of EAD, if ports has a good shot of getting a GC in a year should be highly motivated. Probably more than someone who already had an EAD in EB3. Yes he needs to find an employer who will sponsor both GC and H1B which in this economy won't be easy. But if job market improves we can not rule out significant porting from this category either. I think people in EB3 ROW without EADs have actually been doing it since EB2-ROW has been mostly current.
But overall I agree with you we should expect less consumption from porting next year (hopefully).
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Not sure if this adds anything to what Q has already said or not.
Looking at the Demand Data, it has been clear that EB3-I overall reduces at a greater rate than approvals for EB3-I.
Looking at the Nov Demand Data (as at early October) and the last published Demand Data for FY2013 (as at early June), the following are the rough reductions due to PD that were Current during the FY versus total reduction for the FY for EB3-I.
------- Current --- All ---- Diff
FY2011 -- 3,550 -- 6,075 -- 2,525
FY2012 -- 2,500 -- 6,525 -- 4,025
FY2013 -- 3,550 -- 5,950 -- 2,400
I would attribute the main reason for the difference to be the removal of cases that had been approved under EB2 from the EB3 Demand figures. It is not necessarily the same as the level of porting, since that is only the net reduction.
Pedro,Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Thanks a lot for your inputs. Finally I am able to figure out what went wrong in the 2012 fiasco and it was "Quarterly Spillovers". I had no clue that something like that could be done. Thanks a lot for taking the time to explain that.
I pretty much agree with the explanations that you provided except for the point where you say that porters will be less with PD 2008. The trackitt data for the porting cases that have their I-140 approved between June 2012 till today is as below:
Sep 2004 - Aug 2007 : 97
Aug 2007 - Jun 2008 : 75
Total : 172
Since these were approved post June 2012, they have never had an opportunity to be current prior to AUg bulletin. Hence these 172 have never been considered in any demand and constitute the type 2 porters (the ones who have never filed I-485). Thus the 97 have not yet been considered in demand and they do not have their EAD. I do not understand why you say that they would have their EAD. May be I am missing something here.
If they had a PD of between Sep 2004 and Aug 2007, the vast majority of them would have had a chance to apply for their I485 in EB3 during the July 2007 fiasco (in reality, it's better to look at Sep 2004 to May 2007, because if the PD was June or July 2007 they would have likely missed the boat at that time). That EAD puts them in the EB3 demand data. They already have filed I485s and their applications are probably pre-adjudicated, so once they have their EB2 PERM and I140 approved, they can interfile easily, and will be approved for their GCs pretty quickly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Those 97 are not in the EB3 demand data and not the EB2 demand data, but given that they were current in August, and likely interfiled in the first few days of the month, CO has a very good idea on their numbers. He would have included those numbers when calculating how far to move the visa bulletin. On the other hand, the guys with PDs after June 2007 probably don't have an EAD and so they have to put in a new I485 application in August or September 2013 and they will probably not get their GCs before the end of the FY on 30 Sep 2013. Hence, CO didn't need to consider them in his calculations.
There was some discussion on this thread a few weeks ago on this subject. I think kanmani was a part of that conversation so look up her profile and go through the posts she's made in the last month to 2 months and you may be able to find the discussion.Quote:
Originally Posted by yesman
I think the majority opinion was that its better to hold off and not file the AC21, because the AC21 application may result in an RFE. Instead, do not file the AC21, but keep the documents ready, primarily an EVL from your new employer to use just in case you get an RFE for an EVL.
Still, consult with your lawyer, and if you don't like his/her response, consult with a 3rd party lawer. Murthy's firm does phone consultations that aren't super pricey, from what i've heard.
Gurus,
Please advice !!..
I received RFE email from USCIS along with all(06/14).. Due to my lawyer address change, it got returned. She called USCIS & also, sent new G-28 forms for address Change along with RFE re-generate..
Received address change, but as of today did not receive Physical RFE copy.
Lawyer opened Service Ticket on (07/19) no update as of now.. She called three to four times, still USCIS saying sent out and will receive by 08/19. Good thing is, Lawyer asked USCIS officer RFE information, they read complete RFE and also she asked the next step if not received by on-time.. They told as send all the documents whatever informed by phone along with a letter with explanation after 08/19(30 days period)..
Little tense, so just need an advise- Is there any better option which i have to think ?
Sunil
not sure if it was discussed here:
does anyone know the reason behind low Eb2Row and EB1 demand for last 2 months? and what will be the trend in 2014?
I moved the conversation regarding EB2-C vs. EB3-C filing to this thread.
You can open a Service Request to obtain a copy of the RFE. You could also have contacted your Senator to get a copy of the RFE.
I did the same got a copy (not mine but a boilerplate copy from both these methods) and sent the response.
EB2ROW is believed to be a mix of slow PERM processing given sequestration and focus of the USCIS on EB3ROW. EB1 is affected by the focus on EB3ROW, but i don't think that's the whole answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
I moved comments related to early walkins for finger printing here
Since the dates for EB3ROW have been moved fairly aggressively, what is the expected demand data buildup for EB3ROW assuming dates do not go past July 1, 2010 for the next few months ? This is important from two angles:
1) To understand if EB3I will get any spillovers next year from EB3ROW - this is good for EB3I and perhaps EB2I (if it discourages some level of porting to EB2I).
2) To understand how EB3ROW will moved forward over the next 12-18. This may be indirectly important for EB2I spillover as the motivation for EB3ROW to upgrade to EB2ROW will be less if dates are expected to move fast.
I have tried to arrive at a ballpark figure using these assumptions:
1) I have assumed a simple EB2:EB3 split was 50:50 for ROW (EB2 was probably higher in later years once people realized that EB3ROW was not moving)
2) I485 per approved PERM = 2 (actual value is probably 5% higher).
3) For priority date of 2007, 2/3 of EB3ROW is still waiting for for GC (since EB2.
4) EB3 ROW PERM is evenly distributed for 2010 (I know data is available, but being just lazy here)
Using the data on this forum and the above assumptions, I have used the below calculations:
a) EB2 approvals (ROW + Mex) / 2 = EB2 PERMs (ROW + Mex)
b) EB3 PERMs (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) = Total PERMs (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) - EB2 PERMS (ROW + Mex) (from a)
c) EB3 Demand (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) = EB3 PERMs (ROW + Mex, no Philippines) * 2
Sources of error: At least three - Have not included China (assuming may get at most their demand), PERM and EB approval data is not aligned. Philippines EB3 may consume more that its quota.
Based on the above, I arrived at an expected EB3 (ROW + Mex) demand till July 1, 2010 of approx 35K. This is roughly 13-14 months of demand for EB3 ROW + Mex (i.e. no China, India and Philippines). This should imply that next year FY their should be another round of inventory buildup for EB3 ROW. Using the above assumptions, it can also be seen that 2011/2012 are sweet spots for EB3 ROW and if CO decides to build an inventory of another 35K next year, EB3 ROW should move to Q3/Q4 2011 by September 2014. If CO decides to build inventory at 50K, EB3 ROW can move to Q3/Q4 2012 in September 2014.
If there is another round of inventory buildup next year, EB3I may be lucky again to get more than its quota. As mentioned above, this may be good news for EB2I as well as there will be less porting both from EB3I and EB3ROW.
Gurus - my assumptions are simplistic. I therefore request you to help arrive at a more educated guess on EB3ROW expected demand data buildup.