Printable View
Definitely NOT.
To be a bit technical - the lagging indicators are positive (i.e. trackitt approvals / dashboard approvals). But the leading indicators (I-140 / 485 receipts) are -ve. PERM data which is another leading indicator is +ve.
So all in all - it could go eitherway. So what we present on this forum is really an "EDUCATED GUESS". At the end of teh day it is still a "Guess". But an "Educated" one though!
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
I support qesehmk. By not calculating and hence not knowing the numbers, we are open to situations where visa numbers can get wasted 'cause the dates were never moved as required, as it has happened in the past. Let's say if our calculations were to show 10k visa number wastage, we can get media involved and make sure it does not happen. Otherwise we are open to exploitation where American companies will keep fleecing us for as long as possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on Trackitt, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September. EB2 ROW spillover calculations is one area where everyone has different opinions.
c) EB1 – I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VB’s must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmb’s will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.
Teddy so when do you think they will move dates between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008? Is it Oct'11 to Dec'11 or is it the 2012 spillover season of July-Sep'12?
This pertains to the 2012 season, I believe that 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 will be the maximum we can hope for because for a 40K buffer thy just require a 24K intake. In the 2011 season we will likely settle around 01-May-2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygclost
Teddy ...so the date will remain stagnant at 01-May-2007 till when? When will they move the date to take the new 24K intake?
Teddy,
As always great predictions!
However - this is what I found on immigration-law.com
5/19/2011: USCIS Announces Proposals for Significant Enhancements to EB-5 Visa Processing and Seeks Comment on the Proposals by 06/17/2011
USCIS is proposing three fundamental changes to the way it processes EB-5 Regional Center filings.
I: Firstly, USCIS proposes to accelerate its processing of applications for job-creating projects that are fully developed and ready to be implemented. USCIS will also give these EB-5 applicants and petitioners the option to request Premium Processing Service, which guarantees processing within 15 calendar days for an additional fee.
II: Secondly , USCIS proposes the creation of new specialized intake teams with expertise in economic analysis and the EB-5 Program requirements. EB-5 Regional Center applicants will be able to communicate directly with the specialized intake teams via e-mail to streamline the resolution of issues and quickly address questions or needs related to their applications.
III: Thirdly, USCIS proposes to convene an expert Decision Board to render decisions regarding EB-5 Regional Center applications. The Decision Board will be composed of an economist and adjudicators and will be supported by legal counsel.
This proposal will be online until June 17, 2011, for public comment—providing stakeholders an opportunity to offer feedback on the proposed changes to the administration of the EB-5 Program. For the full text of the Operational Proposals for Comment, please click here. Read also USCIS Director's statement.
If this proposal is accepted we may not get the numbers from EB5 for 2012 season?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
If I remember correctly your PD is Oct 2007, I can empathize with you in the sense that we have been waiting since the last 4 years just for filing 485. This year we saw a lot of inertia in their moving the dates so if we use this year as a precedent then it may well be as late as May 2011 I do hope that they do it earlier to have sufficient time to adjudicate the cases but this is all in the hypothetical domain.Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygclost
Thanks for the link, probably they maybe late for this year and we will get EB5 spillover but if they aggressively go after it yes EB5 SOFAD will be less in 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by srini1976
Thanks for your insights Teddy ...yes my PD is Oct'07 ...so this year also is most likely gone ...missed July'07 fiasco by some months and still both me and my wife are paying the price of not having EAD ...forget GC .....just waiting to file my EAD ..ASAP!
We will have our EAD/AP and GC by Sep 2012, Iam in exactly same boat as you are Iam hoping to file 485 before H1 expiry in Sep 2012, life is hard without EAD and missing the Jul 2007 windfall is definitely something very big to miss.Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygclost
Teddy,
I understand the calculations that made you arrive at the May'07 date by the end of FY'11. If that happens, the known demand (or backlog) for DoS would only be 6523 visas (2413 for EB2C and 4110 EB2I) + the demand coming in from the current countries.
I know they would have the statistics of PERM and I140 approvals from USCIS. However, these stats paint an inaccurate picture, as they may not include all the dependents. How much DoS would rely on these is anyone's guess.
In the past, DOS has shown no reluctance to move the dates forward to generate demand and then retrogress them.
The most drastic measure for DoS would be to make it C across the board and then have USCIS deal with the added workload. I doubt if this would happen.
But I certainly feel they would partially open the gates and move the dates around Oct. 2007 and then scale it back by Sept. 2011.
I don't have any basis for this feeling other than the rumors of NVC sending out emails for CP applicants with 10/07 priority dates.
atlast.... someone's talking about those emails!!!....whats your PD Champ?Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
[QUOTE=TeddyKoochu;2245]This pertains to the 2012 season, I believe that 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 will be the maximum we can hope for because for a 40K buffer thy just require a 24K intake. In the 2011 season we will likely settle around 01-May-2007.[/QUOTE]
Teddy don't say that....:) My PD is 03 May 07. I missed July fiasco by few hours..got labor approved on Aug 17 2007 in the afternoon..and now again by few days?? I can't take it anymore!!
Q and other guys you are doing a great job on this forum..I left all the forums and just following yours everyday...infact every few hours... for the updates.
Soggadu,
My PD is 02/22/2008. I've my "I'm Greened" message ready with a date of 07/31/2012.. :-)
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Even-though my approach is conservative, I assume USCIS Policy Memorandum on EB1-2 is impacting EB2 approvals also, and the i-140 backlog(~36k) may not going to be cleared any sooner.
So, there may be chances for spillover from EB2ROW!!
Here is the excerpt on EB2 from the Memo
"The statutory provision for the Alien of Exceptional Ability immigrant classification at INA 203(b)(2)(A) requires that the alien will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy, cultural or educational interests, or welfare of the United States because of his or her exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business. The alien must also have a job offer from a U.S. employer to provide services in the sciences, arts, professions, or business.5 The regulation at 8 CFR 204.5(k)(2) defines exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business as having a degree of expertise significantly above that ordinarily encountered in the sciences, arts, or business. The regulation at 8 CFR 204.5(k)(3)(ii) requires that a petition for this immigrant classification must be accompanied by documentation consisting of at least three out of six types of evidence listed in the regulation (e.g., academic record, professional license, membership in professional associations)."
.....
.....
"Policy
In order to promote consistency in decision-making, USCIS officers should use a two-part approach for evaluating evidence submitted in support of all petitions filed for Aliens of Extraordinary Ability, Outstanding Professors or Researchers, and Aliens of Exceptional Ability. USCIS officers should first objectively evaluate each type of evidence submitted to determine if it meets the parameters applicable to that type of evidence described in the regulations (also referred to as “regulatory criteria”). USCIS officers then should consider all of the evidence in totality in making the final merits determination regarding the required high level of expertise for the immigrant classification."
.....
.....
Damn Champ. You are either one optimistic dude or haven't lived through at least three years of the dreaded last Visa Bulletin quarters. We should subject the terrorists to this, rather than anything else, promise a GC and then advance/retrogress for the next 2-3 years, maybe mix it up every few months. I'm sure they will talk after living through that kind of torture.Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
Tanu,
For someone like me who works in a finance domain, there is (A.) no sense of job security (B.) Switching jobs is as common as Charlie Sheen switching broads.. My employer wanted me to file for GC in Feb 2007 but I delayed.. guess what.. I have filed my GC through the same bank and have been passed on for a whole bunch of promotions/growth offers..
Long story short, I have dealt with my demons and have lived through the torture of being the dumbest SOB on the planet.. ..I have spoken at least thrice to Schumer's staffers when he was the torch bearer of the Immigration movement.. have been let down.. spoke to Menendez's staffers..All in the hopes of getting something that is just and something that I truly deserve..
After all efforts have run out, I have no other choice but be optimistic..
3M (hope you don't mind if we call you that),
Your words (and others who have sometimes expressed similar things) make us going. Hope you also catch the spirit here and help others understand what you have learnt!
Quote:
Originally Posted by 03May07
Dude... +1 for the above description... i delayed it from 2006 end and finally filed in 2007 oct... lost a job offer ( life time work from home :-( and alot... now waiting to get glimpse of atleast an EAD .... i liked your optimism....Keep it going...Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
Folks...I have observed that the processing dates for TSC has been updated on May 17. However I140 dates have not moved or moved by 2 days. As of 31st March 2011 (updated on 17 May 2011) the processing date is 2 Sept 2010. As of 28th Feb 2011 it was August 31st 2010.
So the turn around time is around 8 months now?
Note: NSC turn around shows 4 months. VSC shows a date of October 31st. Only TSC seems to have problem.
Anybody has clue why TSC is backlogged?
Why I care? My I140 is with TSC and wondering when they will take decision on it.
S
EB2I - PD Dec 2010.
This Post is disheartening for people like me who are in the first week of march '2008. Unable to bear this after living in this country for 10 yrs. Let us hope in a years time people in 2008 priority date will also get EAD. It all depends on what we get end of this year. In optimistic mode - for next year they might consider 45k to 50k( with 5 to 10k minimal spill over), they need lot of applications suggested by the OP. And also out of remaining applicants ( i.e. 18k this year and 45 to 50k next year, there will be atleast 2-5% who will not green card due to various reasons, the number will be around 1000-1500 people )Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
grnwtg
Let me try to put some perspective.
In general EB1 category is getting full. This year is abnormal and artificial because of kazarian memo which has created good upside. We do not know if that memo has created any fundamental shift which will impact EB1 demand permanently for future.
EB2 ROW - since EB3 is becoming dark everybody is now filing in EB2. Very few EB3 applicants anymore. EB2 ROW demand is consistently coming in at mark with the full year supply (including this year). We are not sure that the upside we see this year is really there. Next year EB2 ROW will have solid demand because of all the pipelines getting choked up once again.
Given above two things.... EB5 is the ONLY hope for EB2IC. So unless USCIS moves the date aggresively ahead and retrogresses back, Mar 2008 could take 1-2 years to get greened. Notice that I say "greened" and not filing of 485.
In general EB2IC follows a rule of 5 years. (Tell that to me though! Its been 11 years since in this country and 8-9 years since employment). However in my case the employer made mistakes which cost me dearly. Anyway ... but 5 years since filing labor is a general thumb rule. Second thing to remember is that about when economy starts revving up the lawmakers tend to bring bills to release unused numbers from history.
So all in all for you in particular the picture will be ok in 2 years time period. But for many more people its really going to be about economy.
Now regardless where you think you are, my advice is to never stop building your career proactively. Dont wait for that green card to take on challenges in life or in career. Managers know it fully well that you are a hostage and a slave. And they will dump all the shitty jobs on you that nobody else wants to do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
I can understand your feelings, I tried to put a numerical perspective to things to get a projection where the dates may stand with a 40K buffer, this is actually a bit early in the day the best time would ideally be after the Sep bulletin is done. There will be deviations by a few months here or there I do hope they allow everyone to file for 485 I have myself waited for 4 yrs just for the dates to be current. Lets all keep our spirits high and hope for the best. Also as Q mentions there maybe a chance that the gate is opened much wider to get a larger chunk of applicants which could even be beyond 40K so lets us all hope for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by grnwtg
Veni thanks for the details, I have a quick question for you where do you feel are I140 Withdrawals by employers allocated on the dashboard. I can bet that probably 5-10% I140's are eventually withdrawn by employers on the whole this practice is being very consistently followed when somebody leaves the company. The dashboard even though we are using for calculations purpose is more intended for management reporting and if withdrawals are clubbed with completions it helps to show good performance. I what Iam guessing is correct it could skew the projections in our favor withdrawals must be classified wither under denials which I doubt or completions. I believe withdrawal is also another example of graceful completion only thing is that the impact to the employee is negative.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001