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Also, if you read through her blog (which Indian's love BTW), she makes two astounding predictions,Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
1. EB3 India will not be current next month
2. EB2 India will move to 2009
Obviously it doesn't take very high IQ to make these two predictions. Emily isn't too happy that she might lose some business when dates move ahead.
Iatiam
2018 Apr Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance
Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 00 00 00 05 29 07 170 211 EB2 01 05 00 25 117 03 114 265 EB3 100 98 15 558 39 05 328 1143 EB4 05 24 01 08 02 02 158 200 EB5 70 36 15 00 29 87 145 382 Total 176 163 31 596 216 104 915 2201
Year to date Monthly Family Immigrant Visa Issuance
Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html
China India Mexico Philippines ROW Total Total 7209 10108 16653 8785 82368 125123
I have received RFE for medicals and I485 supJ and my PD is September 2009Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Thanks Spec, Spot on. You read my mind. Yes, the loss was for EB3 as a whole. I was expecting EB3-ROW to be current by FY 15 end, however it became current only for the last quarter of FY 17.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Nice, did you receive this RFE recently or is it a while?Quote:
Originally Posted by vckomara
I know there is discussion regarding how much spillover EB1 will use before it carries over to EB2. The spillover flow per DOS (CO) is:
EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
EB2 --> EB3
EB3 --> EB1 --> EB2
EB4 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
I believe that to move EB2 dates, they have to make EB1 current to apply the spillover. All the EB applicants (EB1 through EB3) need an interview if their I-485 was filed on 06MAR17 or later. I am not sure of interview requirements for EB4 and EB5 as they don't have to file I-140. Are they doing interviews when the dates are not current for EB1's? How many EB1 applications are pre adjudicated and ready to go?
A strict interpretation of the rule, would be if they cannot use the EB3 numbers by September last(FY end) the numbers move over to the FB category for the next FY. However I believe CO has the autonomy to move the dates within the category as he deems fit in the final quarter. Logically the numbers would have to go to EB2 I for the most effective utilization of the numbers, but who knows.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
And from this year onwards we started getting the mandatory interview requests as well. This meant the new filers from March 2017 are not going to be displayed in demand data anymore starting April 2018. July bulletin prediction is definitely going to be a roulette (earlier predictions can be equated to blackjack with card counting) with very limited reliable data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vckomara
what is your category EB2? EB3?
I received about 45 days ago and I am in EB-2. Not sure if this means any movement though.Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Can you confirm if you are EB2-I?Quote:
Originally Posted by vckomara
Yes EB-2I September 2009 PD.Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
I am skeptical that it means anything. They sent a bunch of RFEs in 2016 for 2009 PD. It meant nothing then. All it ended up doing was wasting our time and money in doing medicals and other paperwork. I am glad NSC is not sending RFEs in advance this time (based on Trackitt). I rather have the RFE sent after the date is announced current than wasting more money on medicalsQuote:
Originally Posted by vckomara
Dear Friends, Kindly please share your best guess,Quote:
Originally Posted by horizon
as when EB3 India Sep 2009 priority might come current. I am in
India now, my employer is trying to file my H1B, but looks like
getting H1B approval is becoming very difficult these days.
Could be in the next few months. Just hang in there. You could get your GC in 1 yr from now.Quote:
Originally Posted by godhelp
Hmm, It is too early to get optimistic for your date. The RFE activities in EB2 I has been all before March 2009. However watch out for the 1st week of June to see if the RFE's are being issued for people beyond March 2009. That might give us a pointer if it is a real one, on just a trigger for expired medicals.Quote:
Originally Posted by vckomara
As of now, I am not sure what to make out for July bulletin for EB2 India. My logical assumption would be 1st April 2009 for EB 2 I and the lack of visibility for EB3 I indicates the same date possible for EB3 as well?
If EB3 I dates are moved to December 2009, lot of EB2 I filers may be eligible to file Supp J and use the available numbers.
I hear lot of chatter that EB2 dates are going to jump in coming months.
My date is in early 2012.
Gurus , very optimistically speaking, is there any chance of my date being current in 2019 or even 2020 ?
So you are in early 2012. You should realize by now that EB2I and EB3I are going to move together very soon. My crude estimate is 18,000 in 2011, 18,000 in 2010 and 10,000 in 2009. There are approx 46,000 (EB2I+EB3I) applicants before you. Without spillover it will take nearly 9 years for your dates to become current. Last year EB2I did not have any meaningful spillover. So, I don't think anyone can predict now. But, you need huge amount of spillover (in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 per year) for early 2012 to be current. These huge spillovers are usually associated with a recession or financial market collapse or some extreme event which might not be beneficial to your job security. With these crude numbers, you can predict yourself what needs to happen for you to become current. Sorry. I am just trying to present the facts without adding sugar.Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorker123
Thank you, I will go back into my cave. EB1A / EB1C seems to be the only way out.
What would be meaningful movement that we can anticipate for EB2-I in July, Aug, Sept 2018? Would it reach May 2010?Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Looking at pending inventory (latest reports are not accurate at all, but considering historic data) with reasonable spillover we should clear 2009, but again the processing timelines in fieldoffices and related potential wastage is still not quantifiable. In worst case scenarios we are looking at March-April 2009. This is what CO had predicted few months back. Going by past years, worst case scenario maybe the likely one, unfortunately.
Not optimistic as I have seen same thing happen last year even for Oct-2009 PDs. With EB2 dates hardly moving week or two every month, what makes you think it will move 4 months in next bulletin? What is the reasoning behind optimism?Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
Few factors. Low demand in EB2-ROW, sustained steady reports of RFE for people in EB2 I before March 31st 2009 in multiple forums. Above all July being the start of final quarter for FY18. So even if the RFE's come in June, people should be able to respond to them before September which can result in the numbers getting utilized this FY itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by vckomara
EB2 I 2009 has close to 10 K people waiting for GC without the need for interview.
An off-topic question:
Can one apply for 140 based EAD (compelling circumstances) if Priority Date is less than 1 year range?
If so I heard one has to go for consular processing for I 485.
Please advise;
:-D, I understand your question and reason for the same from your individual perspective,Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
However the number of applicants in 2016 under this clause can be counted by hand if you are not aware.
So if you think what you heard is right, why is the number of applicants in 2016 under this compelling circumstances this low?
Hi All,
Without any legislative process, EB for India is in soup, you can expect some spill over due to increase in time process due to mandatory 485 interviews but these will catch up next year.. You may not have any spill over next year again.. So our good bet is spreading news on HR 392 BILL which is having some chances of passing in house.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-...house-bill/392
I see that related Senate version is having only 4 sponsors, which needs some push.
keep calling your senators.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-...enate-bill/281
Regards
Tatikonda
Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...r_May_2018.PDF
Latest information on approved I-140 till April 2018.
does this bill HR392 include funding for beautiful wall?
no?
"I wont sign it" says Don!
Trump says he won’t sign immigration bill without money for border wall
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...san-2018-05-24
HR 4760 is a bill that covers all areas that President Trump wants in terms of border security, ending chain migration and increasing EB counts by 45%. Paul Ryan could not bring this bill to a floor vote since eight months. Does anyone in the forum still think HR392 is getting any attention other than twitter or RHC/IV propaganda. Per country limit is not just for EB but FB cases also come under it. Removing caps have a broader implicit on diversity and there is no way Congress can change it.Quote:
Originally Posted by tatikonda
There is a resolution to get house members to vote on all 4 bills by end of June'18 to see what each representative stands for on Immigration and if they just talk or walk the talk. This will decide their reelection in November. It's an utter failure since DACA ended that kept legal immigrants in Limbo.
True.Quote:
Originally Posted by altek001
Country cap is critical for the state department and their objectives. It is a useful tool to cultivate foreign talent and intelligence. For commerce dept and american corporations country cap is useful to continue H1B slavery.
Removal of country cap is not going to happen through advocacy only. The backlogged indian community needs to make a sustained campaign to highlight slavery which is so unamerican. They need to fight this in the courts. Even then the chances are slim.
Trump is a monkey wrench in the way the government was run (regardless of party lines). He may actually be useful. But good luck trying to get him to do it ... not just because he is so unpredictable but also because how much racist his entire administration and Trump supporters are.
If you are doing any serious work on removal of country caps then you better understand these fundamentals to ensure some degree of success.
I have a question and sorry for the diversion:
When ROWs file I-140 and I-485 concurrently, do they only get EAD/AP after the I-140 is approved or do they still get it in the normal processing time which is around 90 days regardless of when the I-140 is approved? Logic tells me that they should get EAD/AP only after the I-140 is approved, which begs me to ask why they simply do not get it done in premium processing to speed up their GC issuance?
EB3Iwaiting,Quote:
Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
Thanks for bringing the discussion back on track.
The approval and issuance of EAD/AP does not depend on the approval of the I-140 - it's a benefit of a pending I-485, not an approved I-140.
@cyrusmehta
Charlie Oppenheim at AILA DC meeting tonight says that India EB-2 cutoff date in July 2018 visa bulletin will be March 15, 2009 but there will be advances in India EB-3 and China EB-2 through the summer. No advances in China EB-3. Does not have any cutoff dates for them as yet
CO did say that 3/15/09 date for EB-2 I would be held for rest of year unless he sees demand bottoming out at end of summer and then there could be some advance a little bit, but he said to not count on that
This is a bit of a bummer since the same dude tweeted about "Rapid" movement not so long ago. So 2-months is now considered rapid? Also, where is CO going to find the adjucated 485s required to fill the visa supply? This movement is worth 2500 visas or so. Even if dates move forward for EB3, there won't be enough time to schedule interviews and approve GCs.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
The only good news is that EB3 will move forward and put an end to porting.
Iatiam
Here is what I feel and I could be completely wrong. The movement CO has given EB2I is probably only based on the horizontal SO from EB2ROW due to delays in GC issuance for mandatory interviews. He has not given any indication where he will move EB3I as he has no idea how many will be issued by the end of the year. I have a feeling that if he sees not enough are issued, he will move EB2I further to reduce wastage. Of course, I could be completely wrong about this thinking.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
Thanks for the clarification Spec. The benefit of the pending I-485 makes sense, however, if the I-140 is denied, the pending I-485 would be denied anyway which makes the EAD/AP null and void. Kind of makes an odd situation, cos the applicant still has to maintain the underlying non immigrant status.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Does EB2 holding same for rest of the year mean rest of 2018 or until October’18?Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
Till Sep 2018 - end of this FY. EB2I gets a fresh set of visas on Oct 1 as it is the start of the next FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by vckomara
EB3 I seems to advance better than EB2 I and catch up at one point this FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
Maintaining status is possible and fairly easy if you happen to be in either H or L status.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting
For other, non dual intent visa classes, it's not so simple.
Ignoring the obvious F and J classes, let's look at a visa very similar in scope to the H visa - the O visa.
Once the I-485 is received by USCIS, O visa holders are landlocked without an AP in hand.
Without one, if they leave the USA for work or pleasure, then they have abandoned the I-485 application. They can only leave with Advance Parole. Having used it, they have lost their O status.
For many dependents, having an EAD may be their first chance to work, even though it means losing their visa status.
Even if they don't wish to, the EAD enables them to to obtain a SSN. You shouldn't minimize how useful this is. People without a SSN often feel like third class citizens, because it is used for (or helps with) everything in the real world - from the DMV to obtaining credit. This is something achievable without loss of status, as long as they don't use the EAD to work.