YT,
I appreciate your effort. EB3 share of allocation is 42900 out of 150,000, why do you think DoS might again repeat wasting their precious 900?
My opinion is that Apr 2009 is on the realistic side, June 09 to sept 09 is on the optimistic side.
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YT,
I appreciate your effort. EB3 share of allocation is 42900 out of 150,000, why do you think DoS might again repeat wasting their precious 900?
My opinion is that Apr 2009 is on the realistic side, June 09 to sept 09 is on the optimistic side.
Kanmani,
Thats a good catch. But after verifying the ratio of EB3 share to total EB for last 5 years, the correct projected value should be even lesser than 42k, it should be around 41k.
This is one important characteristic of the EB3 category, EB3 never got its full share of 28.6% in the past years and it may get max 41k this year. The last 2 years' % was around 27%.
I'll change this value to 41k in the next version of my document. I don't see this as a wastage of visas, instead we see these visas allocated to EB2 category in particular EB2-I as spillover.
It is easy to allocate leftover visas to EB2-I instead of wasting those in CP allocations specifically during last few days of financial year to meet the processing targets.
YT,
You are absolutely correct by all means, But I cannot agree with your view as we cannot take those visas as granted and divert them to EB2 during our calculations. EB3 is not under used category and the wastage ( in view of Eb3 it is wastage only) cannot be considered as excess.
Moreover not all the remaining visas are availed by EB2. For example in the year 2011, the total EB usage was 139,302 out of 140,000. Approximately 700 visas were redirected to FB'2012 while eb3 usage was 37,425 out of 40,040.
Similarly in 2012, 300 visas were redirected to FB'2013.
Kanmani,
I understand what you are saying. I've taken your points.
My goal in this document is to find the India numbers thru statistics(not regular calculations), considering the current trends so that when I compare these values with the actual values when they get released in Dec'14 should be in 2% tolerance levels.
Q, Kanmani, redwood,
I do see that you all are not considering the fact that I-140 can be filed under premium processing. What do you think about candidates that would go for premium processing after PERM is approved. Do you think they can get I-485 approved if they get PERM approved on Apr 30, 2014 ? I think they can.
redwood,
I had already done a detailed analysis of the I-140 approvals some time last week. I did know that the I-140 approvals have gone down and the applications also have gone down. However, rise in PERM certifications can show a rise in I-140 approvals. We only have data up until Jan 14 for I-140 and we might see an increase in Apr 14 as PERM certifications have gone up in the period of Jan - Apr 14. Let us not assume that all EB2ROW candidates file regular processing.
Great Jagan. Lets assume that DOL will continue at its 7K per month for the whole year and all of these guys I-140 is approved a couple of months later(March PERM approvals become June I-140 approvals). Even then there is a 25% drop in approvals. Big assumption is USCIS doesn't go into the current I-140 backlog removal process. I am sure you will do your own quick analysis to verify this and smart enough to ask where are you getting EB2NIW and EB1 filings from.
Here is how I get it
1. Overlay the monthly PERM applications on your I-140 sheet you got from the link. http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
2. Subtract the monthly perm applications number from I-140 receipts 2 months later. For eg. Sep I-140 receipts minus July PERM approvals.
3. You will see a nice average pattern of 2.4K EB2NIW/EB1 filings for the last 12 months or 2.5K over the last 6 months.
Look forward to seeing your analysis.
Since you are analysing the I-485 & I-140 processing data, thought of sharing this data which is compared to last 2 years averages.
First 2 columns are yearly values and last 3 columns are monthly averages.
From the I-485 processing data I could say that:
1) Preadjudicated files are at its lowest ever and they are all just EB2-India and EB3-India I-485 applications.
2) There is more room for preadjudicated files compare to last 2 years processing data..this shows more EB3-ROW movements in future.
3) Since begining of FY2014 there were 31k of I-485s got added to pending files..this shows that the processing is slow.
4) Inspite of advancing the EB3-ROW there is NOT much increase in New Receipts...more forward movement of EB3-ROW is needed.
5) Comparing the average values of Completed & New Receipts with past 2 years values..it shows NO significant demand from EB1, EB2-ROW or EB3-ROW.
6) Completed value is less than new receipts value and hence pending value is high
From the I-140 processing data I could say that:
1) Completed & New Receipt values are very less compared to previous years values. This shows NOT much demand due to last year slow PERM data.
2) Pending files are at its highest values and hence the processing is slow.
Attachment 513
04/08/2014: White House Release of Fact Sheet of 04/07/2014 on "Soon-to-be Released" H-4 Spouse Employment Authorization Regulation
I have been hearing about this rule making since 2 years but nothing fruitful has happened. Hope this time it materializes.
Source:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...ome-and-abroad
http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html
Look at this interesting PERM trend and see how EB-ROW demand is getting reduced as years pass on: Attachment 514
BTW, I'm expecting this year INDIA will cross 50K visas ..37k+(EB) & 13k(FB)...will see how it turns out this year..
YT great great great work!!! You may want to explain for everybody's benefit whether the data by year represents approvals during that year or total approved demand from that year. (in other words - if 2006 shows 100 ROW EB2 then is 100 all EB2ROW approvals in 2006 with PDs spread across multiple years behind. Or does 100 represent EB2 ROW demand with PDs in 2006 - but they may be approved either same year or in later years!!
yes - we dont' know the scope of this new rule, but all the past rules (which never made it to being enacted) only referred to ac21...not about i-485 approval. Just needed an approved i-140, and hence extension of H1 beyond 6 years (but not necessarily the i-485)
YT- this is a terrific piece of work. Keep it up.
Here is the break up of estimation for India according to YT.
EB1 - 10700
EB2 - 21000
EB3 - 4,200
EB4 - 608
EB5 - 77.
Also from the same document(Thanks YT), allocated visas for EB2 - India for 2011 is 23,997. It will be interesting to see what the actual allocation is for EB2 India this year, but I am willing to bet that it will be more than that.
If anybody is willing to bet, I will take the wager(Beer ofcourse ;).
Some good news... press released yesterday.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-...ome-and-abroad
"These proposed regulations include rules authorizing employment for spouses of certain high-skill workers on H-1B visas, as well as enhancing opportunities for outstanding professors and researchers."
Yes. That year due to Kazarian effect EB1 consumed only 25k giving EB2 a huge spillover and hence you see 24k for EB2-I. who knows something might similar happens this year too... I'm already seeing EB1 inventory piling up due to slow processing.. if that continues till the end of this year you might see huge spillover from EB1 making your wish comes true.
Love the presentation YT.
Here's the analysis by CY of PD for published date up to Q1 FY2014.
Attachment 515
Clearly the CY2013 numbers are nowhere near complete. By the end of Q1 FY2014 PERM processing was about half way through April 2013 PDs.
The CY2013 numbers have more than doubled in Q2 FY2014 (another 14.1k) from the previous cumulative total of 13k. Processing had reached part way through August 2013 by the end of Q2 FY2014. Q1 FY2014 certifications for CY2013 were 6.8k. PERM Certifications (for all CY) in Q1 FY2014 were 9,076. In Q2 that nearly doubled to around 17,114 according to the LCR.
Ultimately, I expect CY2013 certifications to be around the same or slightly higher than CY2012 after the audit cases are added sometime in the future. Audit cases from CY2012 continue to be certified.
I can see both points of view in the recent discussion. Some comments:
YT's figures give a good idea of DOL productivity. Clearly, that is also likely to translate to I-140 and I-1485 applications and approvals in the short term.
The figures above show the underlying trend by PD year.
ROW is on a slight upward trend from a low of CY2010 PD.
That's true for China as well, but their low was in CY2009.
India has more than doubled since their low in 2009.
Overall, total PERM receipts are on a very gentle upward trend according to the figures published by DOL.
Ultimately, that will translate to I-140 (and I-485 for ROW) as DOL process them. It may be good times this year for India if the slow PERM processing depresses numbers of ROW receiving I-140 and I-485 approvals in FY2014. Eventually, that will catch up - DOL have already shown signs of speeding up processing.
Unfortunately, it will just translate to an awful next year as the underlying numbers of PERM certifications translate into I-485 approvals.
I looked at premium processing for EB2-ROW cases with an I-485 on Trackitt over the last few years. From Oct 2011 it shows PP cases as 67% of the total, from Oct 2012 as 60% and from Oct 2013 as 66%. I was slightly surprised the % was so high. Of course, it is possible that Trackitt does not accurately reflect the true %, but it is the only data available.
As an average over the last 3 FY, EB2-ROW/M/P have had GC approvals of only around 400 less than the allocation they would have received if only 140k was available to EB. That is something to ponder on.
PS - now that I am able to, I will update the PERM figures in Facts & Data over the next few days. With YT's permission, I will also add a post with both the PERM Certification graphs by FY of Decision FY and by CY of PD, which I will keep updated as DOL publish the quarterly disclosure data.
Welcome Back Spec !!!
I have been repeatedly asking this question on the forum about which months PERM certifications will make it to this FY numbers for EB2ROW. Whats your take on it. I had also mentioned the same point that Premium processing is pretty high on trackitt for EB2ROW and hence we should consider all the Apr PERM certifications as potential candidates to take away GC for EB2ROW.
Hello everyone and Namashkar to all Gurus,
I have been silent follower of this forum like many. This forum has helped me to make couple of major professional decision of my carrier which has improved my professional and personal life. Many Many thanks to all Gurus and others. Special Thanks to Q for running this informative blog which provide very realistic information which helped people like make best decision for carrier growth without living in false GC hopes.
Spec,
Thank you for coming back to this forum. we need you around to keep our hope alive. :)
Spec,
Thank you and Welcome back. This forum very much needs your expert comments regularly.
Welcome back Spec. It is so great to see you around in these parts again. You were sorely missed.
About the % of PP cases in Trackitt - since folks who take the trouble to get on trackitt are the ones who are most "motivated" - and the same set is likely to use PP - it does stand to reason that trackitt will significantly overstate the % of PP.
imdeng,
I don't necessarily disagree and it is why I put the rider in my comment about Trackitt data. I prefer to use larger data sets.
At the same time, let's not pretend it is an insignificant number.
ROW are human too. At a time when PERM is taking for ever, they are just as likely to wish to accelerate the process after they receive certification, even if they can file concurrently.
It's perfectly legal for the beneficiary to pay the PP fee.
Rather than wait for 4-6 months for the I-140 approval, then another 3-4 months for the I-485 approval, who wouldn't seriously consider cutting the I-140 approval stage to a potential 15 days. I think that is especially pertinent, now that I-140 processing has slowed so much, as evidenced by the dashboard figures. PP is fast becoming the only way to get the SC to deal with the I-140.
Spec,
Your posts are like 'cool breeze' in this desert of scattered, insufficient data. As usual thank you so very much for to the point and detailed comments. Hope to see more.
Spec,
HAAAAAAAAPY to see you man!
Thank you for the PP data. Have you reached / able to track the new DD location ?
Oh - I absolutely agree Spec. ROW folks need to do what they can legally do to best further their progress in the process. I would do the same if in that situation. I was only commenting on the line that trackitt might be overstating PP % due to selection bias. I have no doubt that the recent delays would have caused the % of PP to go up - I am arguing that it would still be lower than whats shown by trackitt. Lower, but surely not insignificant, as you say.
PERM Data in FACTS & DATA has been updated to Q1 FY2014 and YT style Charts added.
May 2014 Visa Bulletin http://www.travel.state.gov/content/...-may-2014.html
No Change for EB2I
Spec,
Nice to see your awesome work and ur continued dedication to provide clarity to the immigrant community. Indeed Happy to see ur post here.
Cheers!!
Matt