awesome...lets hope for the best... hey keep in touch going forward....Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
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awesome...lets hope for the best... hey keep in touch going forward....Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
my priority date is 3rd week of June. what are the chances of getting atleast EAD. I missed the boat in July by 2 weeks.I hope history doesn't repeat this time.
GCW ..you are not alone. It happens with most of us. I can certainly say for myself.
Hoping to get a GC this year and wife and I are planning that she will go back immediately with Kids for a semester to see how things work out there. If not I guess we will settle here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007
Since trackitt is the best data source we have, here are some interesting insights from trackitt.
Of all 140s filed during Aug10-till date, 75% are EB2 & 25% are EB2-ROW. Only 15% are EB1.
Looking at USCIS dashboard for comparable time period, it tells us that for full year the absolute number will be 70K completions.
Of that 70K 15% EB1 would translated to approx 23.5K EB1 485 approvals for full year. => 16.5K SOFAD from EB1 for full year.
However ROW is not as much rosy. Looked at from I-140 perspective, ROW seems to consume 34K this year as opposed to 27K last year. There are two ways to arrive at 34K. 1) take EB2ROW as a % based on trackitt. That is 25%. Apply that to projected full year I-140 receipts (approx at 70K). Multiple result by 2 to account for dependents. 2) Method 2 - look at trackitt. Last year ROWMP had 360 I-140 applications. This year for 8 months we have 308. Project full year for this year. And then apply to 27.5K (which was full year approvals for ROWMP EB2). Interesting both methods give 34K.
In the projection in header though we have used PERM data which gave us 80% run rate of last year.
So you see? PERM data tells positive picture. I-140 negative. Which one is it going to be? We don't know. This is like classic supply chain issues. While inventory in one place is being cleared.... it builds up in another place thereby reducing throughput. Or the other way round - throughput can increase even when new receipts are low because the inventory is being cleared at some place.
That's the difficulty in prediction... That's why I say there are so many different levers that USCIS can pull to SERVE THEIR POLICY OBJECTIVES.
Our best bet and hope is whats mentioned in the header! Lets cross the fingers!
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Q, thanks for the insight. Based on the deluge of PERM approvals at the start of fiscal year, I had said that I don't see a spillover from EB2ROW. But the lack of I-140 and I-485 approvals made me think that we may get some but at best not more than last year.
Now your analysis makes me think again that it might be zero. Sorry to be such a pessimist. After being burnt in past couple of years, I am still reluctant to imagine a more positive outcome of predictions.
I am new to this forum, On first page prediction EB3 India still shows under section 'Dates Movement Guesstimate Below' is March 02. As of June VB it is already 22APR02.
So what dates movement we are talking about. I didn't get clear.
Sorry if I am asking stupid question.
sorry I only updated EB2 since this is EB2 thread. I didn't look at EB3.
However March 02 was old estimate. The movement till Apr 02 indicates the significance of porting.Will update later today. Thanks.
And no question is stupid!
Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
March I-140 Completions are similar to previous year. The receipts are increased by 1213, due to PERM clearance.
2010 -> Completions - 7343, Receipts - 7526
2011 -> Completions - 7316, Receipts - 8739
We all from all forums know that EB3-EB2 porting is prime driving force of EB2IC movement. Is there any place to get accurate data how many applications PERM/I-140 filled and how many got approved from Jan 2011.? we are predicting all these movements on assumptions or can we have real data from DHS or USCIS by requesting them. is it possible?
the movement for EB2 I - Apr 07, is this up to Sep 2011 VB or next month only?
mpurna77,
please read through all the pages of this thread. if you want just the data, check the facts & data section
where is FACTS and DATA section I don't see it in forum. can you provide me link.ThanksQuote:
Originally Posted by bieber
mpurna77,Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
Please check the following links...
i-140 Data and Calculations
i-485 Data and Calculations
mpurna77,Quote:
Originally Posted by mpurna77
It is by end of FY, which is Sept 2011
kd2008,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I agree, even though they are only averaging about 6.0k i-140 completions per month for the last year and half, I am still still reluctant to bet on EB2ROW spillover.
So far the highest i-140 completions in a month, since data was made available, is 18,881 in Feb 2009, which means they have the capability to process all pending to-date in about two months.
Hello All,
Can anyone shed light on how the movement of dates could be after sept 2011. Assuming our predictions are accurante and we stop at Apr 2007, any idea how long it would take for the dates to reach around Sept - Oct 2007 time frame with the current data.
Sorry if this has already been answered.
It all depends how much we move until Sep 2011. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by krishnav
Gotta wait and watch...
I still don't understand why NVC has sent emails till Oct07 askIng to pay fees for CP... It is usually done in cases where DOS thinks the PD will be current in coming months... Damn... So many ifs and when's attached to all these calculations and numbers... Just wish it was more simple... But one point for all those waiting for getting current after 07 07 ... Don't keep any hopes for this year.... Go on with ur lives.... My 2 cents..prove me wrong CIS/DOS....Quote:
Originally Posted by ravi.shah
I think it will reach Sep - Oct'07 in a year's time, i.e. anywhere around June - July'12.Quote:
Originally Posted by krishnav
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You lost me at i-140 projections based on USCIS dash board. As per the data Aug-10 to Mar-11 there are 58.6k i-140 receipts or averaging about 7.3 k per month, which translates to 88k demand for FY2011. This is about 14% higher compared to FY2010. FY2010 total i-140 receipts = 77.3k
As far as EB1 demand, i-140 trending shows about 6.9k application from Q1 and Q2 adding Q3 estimate will bring it to 10.4k, apply 20% denial rate and 2.4 dependent factor gives 19.9k demand for the three quarters, now add EB1 pending(7.6k) as of 10-01-2010 this translates to 27.5k known demand until 07-01-2011.
The key for any additional SOFAD is how many EB1&EB2ROW i140's are going to be cleared/pending by 07-01-2011
Veni
I looked at the completion rate not receipt. So even if the completions proceed as they are now, 70K will be the full year completions.
There is a risk that the completions could accelerate.
Regarding your date Jul-1-2011 as kind of application deadline for obtaining visa this year, since all of this is concurrent, theoretically even 1st sep would be an ok date.
However 485 is a bit tricky thing. It does need some cycle time to ensure all the checks. So I think any receipts post 1st Jul probably wont' matter for this year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Most likely true because based on latest TSC processing dates, I-485 processing timeframe is now "September 6, 2010". Of course, TSC does not have a nice breakup of EB-1, EB-2, etc,. like NSC for instance.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for clarification.
Does this point us to more SOFAD than expected?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Instead of focussing on "how much" SOFAD, we should be contended with the fact that Dates will not progress beyond March/April 2007. Math around SOFAD is mind-boggling at best, exacerbated by lack of bare-minimum inputs.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu