Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise)

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...n-cojones.html

“If what we hear is as good as it sounds, it’s the makings of a deal,” says Frank Sharry, founder and executive director of America’s Voice, a pro-immigration group.


“The big question is the 11 million and whether a framework like that will get a majority of the Republicans and enough Democrats,” says Sharry. “If they can’t come up with that, the rest is chit-chat. It’s not going anywhere.”

Sharry, a long-time activist on immigration reform, says, “What’s the difference between 8 bills and a bill with 8 sections as long as they pass at the same time.” What’s more important, he says, is the details of granting legality to the 11 million people here illegally, whether it’s “generous or stingy,” which would influence whether Democrats could accept it and set aside their longstanding demand for a path to citizenship.

There are 234 Republicans, and to adhere to the Hastert Rule, Boehner would need at least 117 Republicans before he could bring immigration reform proposals forward. Sharry calculates there are150 Republican votes in play for something, meaning a significant number of Democrats would still be needed to reach 218. A letter to Boehner urging no action on immigration reform circulated by Texas Rep. Steve Stockman reportedly got fewer than 20 signatures. “The Hell No caucus might not be quite so strong,” says Sharry.

idiotic,

Happy New Year to you buddy. Post after a very long time from you. Don't you think CIR is down and out. I personally had a lot of hope for CIR but with the elections coming closer, I have given up hopes.

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

idiotic,

Happy New Year to you buddy. Post after a very long time from you. Don't you think CIR is down and out. I personally had a lot of hope for CIR but with the elections coming closer, I have given up hopes.

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Happy new year to you Jagan.

The following is my take on CIR at this point:

=> House will definitely bring piecemeal immigration bills to the floor this year. Wheather the bill lands up in President's desk I am not sure. Let us hope for the best as we are seeing increasingly things are getting done and "Hell no" faction is being cornored. Even tea party is now singing the tune that even though legalization is in bad taste we can live with it but not with Citizenship(I think this is a big change in stance).

=> If nothing happens this year, we will start seeing executive actions next year. (Indications are after this year end's house and senate elections, it will still be divided government). Looking at history of what happened in Bush's second term, I am sure administration will definitely do temporary relief to most immigrants when things fail.

The per-country numerical limitation is eliminated for employment-based visas, and increased from 7% to 15% for family-based immigrants.

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/n...n-numbers.html

Wouldn't this be great if this amendment passes through (literally next few days) :)

Actual amendment is here

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/...:FLD001:S50078

Only 15 amendments in pipeline..

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Originally Posted by idiotic

The per-country numerical limitation is eliminated for employment-based visas, and increased from 7% to 15% for family-based immigrants.

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/n...n-numbers.html

Wouldn't this be great if this amendment passes through (literally next few days) :)

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Yep, but I won't bet on it. :)

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Originally Posted by gten20

Yep, but I won't bet on it. :)

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I think it has fair chance..

http://freenorthcarolina.blogspot.co...des-major.html

The fate of the Moran Amendment is surely being monitored by the well-funded advocates of higher immigration such as Mark Zuckerberg's FWD.us and others who have just this week essentially said they are no longer pushing for a comprehensive immigration bill and instead focusing on pushing any and every piecemeal increase they can.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

The per-country numerical limitation is eliminated for employment-based visas, and increased from 7% to 15% for family-based immigrants.

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/n...n-numbers.html

Wouldn't this be great if this amendment passes through (literally next few days) :)

Actual amendment is here

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/...:FLD001:S50078

Only 15 amendments in pipeline..

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I am wondering why there is no much talk about this? I think if he had put the elimination of per country limit as a separate amendment it would have had better chances.

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Originally Posted by geterdone

I am wondering why there is no much talk about this?

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Amendment is introduced only yesterday..

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Originally Posted by geterdone

I think if he had put the elimination of per country limit as a separate amendment it would have had better chances.

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I am not sure if this alone will qualify as an idea for increasing jobs.. Primary reason for this amendment is it is an idea to increase jobs to offset unemployment benefits..(to be germane to the topic)


It may be worthwhile to follow these battles in the war.. Immigration is a symbolic battle in this war for this year..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...majority-.html

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Originally Posted by idiotic

The per-country numerical limitation is eliminated for employment-based visas, and increased from 7% to 15% for family-based immigrants.

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/n...n-numbers.html

Wouldn't this be great if this amendment passes through (literally next few days) :)

Actual amendment is here

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/...:FLD001:S50078

Only 15 amendments in pipeline..

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Democratis Senator Warner, Mark R. [VA] - 1/8/2014 Joins as cosponsor

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Democratis Senator Warner, Mark R. [VA] - 1/8/2014 Joins as cosponsor

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What happened to this ?

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Originally Posted by girish989

What happened to this ?

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Unemployment extension bill negotiations is not going in right way..

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jacobfischle...ans-angry-over

In my opinion - the republican amendment was just another seasoning on top of an already explosive bill from GOP point of view. It is an attempt to kill the unemployment extension bill rather than address immigration.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Unemployment extension bill negotiations is not going in right way..

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jacobfischle...ans-angry-over

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

In my opinion - the republican amendment was just another seasoning on top of an already explosive bill from GOP point of view. It is an attempt to kill the unemployment extension bill rather than address immigration.

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Agreed from a purely political prespective.

What's encouraging and heartening is at least there is an amendment (bringing relief to us and making the system more fair) written and proposed amid all these negotiatons.

Once this starts happening, it is just a matter of time before it becomes the law of the land.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Agreed from a purely political prespective.

What's encouraging and heartening is at least there is an amendment (bringing relief to us and making the system more fair) written and proposed amid all these negotiatons.

Once this starts happening, it is just a matter of time before it becomes the law of the land.

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Hope so. But unfortunately for various reasons all stakeholders' interests align against EB immigrants. As I have always maintained there is virtually nobody powerful enough who can influence EB problems other than Mark Zuckerberg funded organization. That's why I so strongly feel that EB must be hitched to FB in any immigration reform - comprehensive or otherwise. Anyway ... we have talked about it many times by now! Lets hope this amendment or similar one is passed this year.

http://www.nfap.com/pdf/NFAP%20Polic...ary%202014.pdf

Signs of progress..

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Hope so. But unfortunately for various reasons all stakeholders' interests align against EB immigrants. As I have always maintained there is virtually nobody powerful enough who can influence EB problems other than Mark Zuckerberg funded organization. That's why I so strongly feel that EB must be hitched to FB in any immigration reform - comprehensive or otherwise. Anyway ... we have talked about it many times by now! Lets hope this amendment or similar one is passed this year.

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About the amendment with unemployment bill, similar thing happened for past years but at the last minute they were throwing out the amendment to pass the bill. I strongly suspect these amendments are negotiating vehicle and once negotiation is finished the sponsor himself will be ready to throw out the amendment due to lack of support. Harry Reid is very strong in his policy that things should go on his way. So I doubt this amendment will be passed.

Most logical and possible trajectory of things. I said this previously last year that political reality will not allow CIR to pass and even this year the window is almost shut.

Time.com article on Obama and his second term

http://swampland.time.com/2014/01/26...-of-the-union/

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Indeed, Obama’s window is arguably nearly shut, at least legislatively speaking. Congress has a few months to pass farm and transportation bills, a debt-ceiling increase and perhaps the Trade Promotion Authority before the campaign season overtakes all else. Chances are slim House Republicans will give the President a victory on immigration reform, tax reform or any other big-ticket items so close to the midterm elections. Still, on the small hope that they might get something done, Obama is reportedly holding his fire on shaming the GOP on immigration. But as the 2014 election approaches, passing bipartisan legislation will only get more difficult, and then the 2016 presidential election will likely overshadow any policy pushes.

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

Most logical and possible trajectory of things. I said this previously last year that political reality will not allow CIR to pass and even this year the window is almost shut.

Time.com article on Obama and his second term

http://swampland.time.com/2014/01/26...-of-the-union/

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Most media is upbeat on immigration reform and only a few of them are skeptical. As early as this week we will get clear idea about what republican principles are. But I think whatever they say will be rejected by most democrats in Senate and congress and end of the immigration reform 2014 before even process starts. The question is Obama will extend DACA for illegals in 2014 or 2015? What will be impact of that?

This is one of the rare post partisan articles. I liked it a lot for its ability to simply highlight things as they are without passing judgements!

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

Most logical and possible trajectory of things. I said this previously last year that political reality will not allow CIR to pass and even this year the window is almost shut.

Time.com article on Obama and his second term http://swampland.time.com/2014/01/26...-of-the-union/

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Originally Posted by Ramsen

Most media is upbeat on immigration reform and only a few of them are skeptical. As early as this week we will get clear idea about what republican principles are. But I think whatever they say will be rejected by most democrats in Senate and congress and end of the immigration reform 2014 before even process starts. The question is Obama will extend DACA for illegals in 2014 or 2015? What will be impact of that?

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My sense is that dems and the press gets excited about any small movement GOP makes. But I think the bottomline is they are NOT going to anything on immigration. Even a piecemeal legislation. They will wait until next president. But i hope I am wrong.

I am a bit optimistic about the chances this year.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...mark-krikorian

Budget passed recently after many years.
Farm bill passed and expected to reach president who will sign it.
Debt ceiling bill also likely to pass.

Tea party is getting its place finally and more things are getting done..

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

This is one of the rare post partisan articles. I liked it a lot for its ability to simply highlight things as they are without passing judgements!




My sense is that dems and the press gets excited about any small movement GOP makes. But I think the bottomline is they are NOT going to anything on immigration. Even a piecemeal legislation. They will wait until next president. But i hope I am wrong.

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Agreed on both counts

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Originally Posted by idiotic

I am a bit optimistic about the chances this year.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...mark-krikorian

Budget passed recently after many years.
Farm bill passed and expected to reach president who will sign it.
Debt ceiling bill also likely to pass.

Tea party is getting its place finally and more things are getting done..

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It is just my two cents that the budget got passed smoothly because both parties have gotten hit hard...

-Dems have lost huge on the Obamacare website debacle and loopholes.
-Repubs have lost huge on the ruckus they caused last year for the debt celing...

Compromise only happens when it is mutually beneficial for both parties. Immigration represents a major victory for the dems and zilch,nada for the Repubs...Also no major legislation ever passes so close to midterm elections.

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

-Dems have lost huge on the Obamacare website debacle and loopholes.
-Repubs have lost huge on the ruckus they caused last year for the debt celing...

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Agreed.

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

Compromise only happens when it is mutually beneficial for both parties. Immigration represents a major victory for the dems and zilch,nada for the Repubs...

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I would think republicans have stake in immigration((next presidential elections, business friendly etc)) if it passes on their terms.. It is only the Tea Party that likes do nothing and instead pass repeal obamacare again using the house majority..

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

Also no major legislation ever passes so close to midterm elections.

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Even though too old.. this was the timeline of last CIR

Introduced in the Senate as S. 1200 by Alan K. Simpson on May 23, 1985
Committee consideration by: Senate Judiciary, Senate Budget
Passed the Senate on September 19, 1985 (69–30)
Passed the House on October 9, 1986 (voice vote after incorporating H.R. 3810, passed 230–166)
Reported by the joint conference committee on October 14, 1986; agreed to by the House on October 15, 1986 (238–173) and by the Senate on October 17, 1986 (63–24)
Signed into law by President Ronald Reagan on November 6, 1986
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigra...ol_Act_of_1986

1986 was an election year.. 1986 was 6th year of presidency for Reagan..

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Even though too old.. this was the timeline of last CIR

Introduced in the Senate as S. 1200 by Alan K. Simpson on May 23, 1985
Committee consideration by: Senate Judiciary, Senate Budget
Passed the Senate on September 19, 1985 (69–30)
Passed the House on October 9, 1986 (voice vote after incorporating H.R. 3810, passed 230–166)
Reported by the joint conference committee on October 14, 1986; agreed to by the House on October 15, 1986 (238–173) and by the Senate on October 17, 1986 (63–24)
Signed into law by President Ronald Reagan on November 6, 1986
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigra...ol_Act_of_1986

1986 was an election year.. 1986 was 6th year of presidency for Reagan..

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idiotic - 1986 was also the year when the recession had ended and economy was on solid footing. Thus immigration was the right thing for industry.
2014 seems to be a recovery year but the recovery can be called anything but solid yet.
So not only the industrial demand is not quite there yet but also the social mood is not there yet. Thus right now CIR is a zero sum game between Dems and Reps. It will turn into a win win game only after 2-3 years of solid GDP growth. By solid I mean at least 3-4%. Right now it's kind of chugging along.

p.s. - The only thing that will run contrary to this theory is if GOP determines that without latino votes they are doomed. Right now I don't think GOP is there yet. They know they dont have latino vote and they are ok with it.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

I am a bit optimistic about the chances this year.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...mark-krikorian

Budget passed recently after many years.
Farm bill passed and expected to reach president who will sign it.
Debt ceiling bill also likely to pass.

Tea party is getting its place finally and more things are getting done..

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I should learn to be optimistic like you...

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Originally Posted by Jagan01

I should learn to be optimistic like you...

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Here are the three outcomes different stake holders want :

1) Outcome desired by Tea party and anti immigrants -- "Do nothing".. if anything deport all 11 million people.. reduce the immigrants
2) Outcome desired by moderate republicans ( undocumented democrats / RINOs as called by tea party ) -- just apply band aid to where the system is broken now
3) Outcome desired by Democrats -- Revamp immigrantion system altogether hoping the other side of the grass is green

I like 2 and I think thats what we will end up. In all 3 outcomes, we(legal immgirants) cannot be worse off than our current state.. Thats reason enough to be optimistic ..