EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Jan 2008 has highest number of PERMS - 2900 :o

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Thanks, this is what the real worrying trend is. The figures for Jul are just 1000 and it resulted in 3K let’s assume PWMB and NIW cancellation. Normally NIW cases are not even 5% of the volume though so this is a highly optimistic calculation. Then in Aug we have 1700 which is a 70% increase from Jul and it accelerates to 2100 in Jan 2008 as you pointed out from the same spreadsheet. So I guess that 3K in fact is a centrist or probably optimistic figure? In fact if people have not dropped out the demand coming this month might shock CO himself.

Friends

I really want to jump into this at this point. I think Suninphx and myself always disagree over the per month calculation of Teddy and others, with no backup evidence in hand to emphasise our point of view.

3000 IC is way over too much per month total for whatever reason it is . As we dont have a real picture of duplicate perm application among us , let me try to find how many of us have multiple perms or including spouse's attached to it.

Please add your name with number of perms in the separate thread " Help us count multiple perms" here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Multiple-Perms

So does that mean CO jumped the gun and announced 01-mar-2008, only to be flooded with more applications causing him to be embarrased and is currently finding a way to come up with a good excuse that he cannot keep his promise :)

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Thanks, this is what the real worrying trend is. The figures for Jul are just 1000 and it resulted in 3K let’s assume PWMB and NIW cancellation. Normally NIW cases are not even 5% of the volume though so this is a highly optimistic calculation. Then in Aug we have 1700 which is a 70% increase from Jul and it accelerates to 2100 in Jan 2008 as you pointed out from the same spreadsheet. So I guess that 3K in fact is a centrist or probably optimistic figure? In fact if people have not dropped out the demand coming this month might shock CO himself.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Friends

I really want to jump into this at this point. I think Suninphx and myself always disagree over the per month calculation of Teddy and others, with no backup evidence in hand to emphasise our point of view.

3000 IC is way over too much per month total for whatever reason it is . As we dont have a real picture of duplicate perm application among us , let me try to find how many of us have multiple perms or including spouse's attached to it.

Please add your name with number of perms in the separate thread " Help us count multiple perms" here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Multiple-Perms

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That thread is open now, lets tabulate the responses

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Originally Posted by cbpds1

So does that mean CO jumped the gun and announced 01-mar-2008, only to be flooded with more applications causing him to be embarrased and is currently finding a way to come up with a good excuse that he cannot keep his promise :)

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Worst case he will keep his promise and will not move dates in Jan and Feb VBs.

Best case he will keep his promise and move dates beyond Mar 1 2008 in Dec Bulletin. And move again in Jan and Feb VBs.

Let's hope for the best.

Again I would not use Jul 2007 numbers as a reference point. Last year I pointed out some anomalies in numbers and spec/gcwait tried to give answers for them. For your reference you can find it http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=3317#post3317

I think we should use May/June data to find out PERM to I-485 ratio. Having said that I too assume that there 2.5 to 3K density for EB2IC from jul 2007 to mid 2008.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Thanks, this is what the real worrying trend is. The figures for Jul are just 1000 and it resulted in 3K let’s assume PWMB and NIW cancellation. Normally NIW cases are not even 5% of the volume though so this is a highly optimistic calculation. Then in Aug we have 1700 which is a 70% increase from Jul and it accelerates to 2100 in Jan 2008 as you pointed out from the same spreadsheet. So I guess that 3K in fact is a centrist or probably optimistic figure? In fact if people have not dropped out the demand coming this month might shock CO himself.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Thanks, this is what the real worrying trend is. The figures for Jul are just 1000 and it resulted in 3K let’s assume PWMB and NIW cancellation. Normally NIW cases are not even 5% of the volume though so this is a highly optimistic calculation. Then in Aug we have 1700 which is a 70% increase from Jul and it accelerates to 2100 in Jan 2008 as you pointed out from the same spreadsheet. So I guess that 3K in fact is a centrist or probably optimistic figure? In fact if people have not dropped out the demand coming this month might shock CO himself.

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So if we do a simple calculation with

70:30 (EB2:EB3) and 80% approval rate for Jan 2008 number comes to

2900*0.7*.8*2.05 = 3329

From above we need to deduct double filings, demand destructions etc.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by cbpds1

So does that mean CO jumped the gun and announced 01-mar-2008, only to be flooded with more applications causing him to be embarrased and is currently finding a way to come up with a good excuse that he cannot keep his promise :)

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It’s a little early to say that but all is not well either. If he is using 2K per month then definitely he will see far more cases coming up. If CO is prepared for a large buffer he can keep his promise and also help everyone waiting to file for 485. I think his promise represents the best case scenario.
Something does not add up very well. It might be that the perm data itself is not accurate. However that time in the latter half of 2007 was a time when everyone was super excited about filing. My attempt is just to correlate and figure out what we should be expecting in this filing. Normally CO would keep getting inputs all along so there is a time lapse between when he spoke with AILA and now. It will be interesting not only to see the dates in the VB but any guidance in there. Let us await Veni & Spec's responses because both of them did great work on that spreadsheet.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Friends

I really want to jump into this at this point. I think Suninphx and myself always disagree over the per month calculation of Teddy and others, with no backup evidence in hand to emphasise our point of view.

3000 IC is way over too much per month total for whatever reason it is . As we dont have a real picture of duplicate perm application among us , let me try to find how many of us have multiple perms or including spouse's attached to it.

Please add your name with number of perms in the separate thread " Help us count multiple perms" here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Multiple-Perms

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Gurus- Is there anyway Trackitt data will help in this regard?

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

It’s a little early to say that but all is not well either. If he is using 2K per month then definitely he will see far more cases coming up. If CO is prepared for a large buffer he can keep his promise and also help everyone waiting to file for 485. I think his promise represents the best case scenario.
Something does not add up very well. It might be that the perm data itself is not accurate. However that time in the latter half of 2007 was a time when everyone was super excited about filing. My attempt is just to correlate and figure out what we should be expecting in this filing. Normally CO would keep getting inputs all along so there is a time lapse between when he spoke with AILA and now. It will be interesting not only to see the dates in the VB but any guidance in there. Let us await Veni & Spec's responses because both of them did great work on that spreadsheet.

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Exactly! And people did not care about if they are filing in eb2 or eb3. So actual eb2:eb3 percentage for those months is going to be interesting.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

It’s a little early to say that but all is not well either. If he is using 2K per month then definitely he will see far more cases coming up. If CO is prepared for a large buffer he can keep his promise and also help everyone waiting to file for 485. I think his promise represents the best case scenario.
Something does not add up very well. It might be that the perm data itself is not accurate. However that time in the latter half of 2007 was a time when everyone was super excited about filing. My attempt is just to correlate and figure out what we should be expecting in this filing. Normally CO would keep getting inputs all along so there is a time lapse between when he spoke with AILA and now. It will be interesting not only to see the dates in the VB but any guidance in there. Let us await Veni & Spec's responses because both of them did great work on that spreadsheet.

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Teddy,
My question may be stupid and please feel free not to respond if you have done so before :)

Whats the gaurantee that despite the dense apps in last quater of 2007 and early 2008, these people have stayed put will apply for 485 and have managed to hold on to their H1s? The economy has gone bad to worst in the last 4 years and I have seen so many of my friends leave the counrty and move either to India or Canada or have got their H1's rejected or something or other going wrong in the process.

What % of people do you think are still holding tight and waiting to apply 485 from latter 2007 to mid 2008 if the number in mind per month is 2500?

sometimes I feel that though the volume is high per the I-140 log.. there won't neccessarily be that many people who are still in their job and hanging in there tight? I hope my question makes sense :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by suninphx

So if we do a simple calculation with

70:30 (EB2:EB3) and 80% approval rate for Jan 2008 number comes to

2900*0.7*.8*2.05 = 3329

From above we need to deduct double filings, demand destructions etc.

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This is quite fair to assume let’s hope that the NIW subsided drastically after Jul 2007.

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Originally Posted by tonyromo

Again I would not use Jul 2007 numbers as a reference point. Last year I pointed out some anomalies in numbers and spec/gcwait tried to give answers for them. For your reference you can find it http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...=3317#post3317

I think we should use May/June data to find out PERM to I-485 ratio. Having said that I too assume that there 2.5 to 3K density for EB2IC from jul 2007 to mid 2008.

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Thanks for this posting, yes there definitely is some anomaly in the Jul 2007 figures for sure or with the perm itself it could be either way. The Jul figures do not reconcile.

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Originally Posted by Jan2008

Teddy,
My question may be stupid and please feel free not to respond if you have done so before :)

Whats the gaurantee that despite the dense apps in last quater of 2007 and early 2008, these people have stayed put will apply for 485 and have managed to hold on to their H1s? The economy has gone bad to worst in the last 4 years and I have seen so many of my friends leave the counrty and move either to India or Canada or have got their H1's rejected or something or other going wrong in the process.

What % of people do you think are still holding tight and waiting to apply 485 from latter 2007 to mid 2008 if the number in mind per month is 2500?

sometimes I feel that though the volume is high per the I-140 log.. there won't neccessarily be that many people who are still in their job and hanging in there tight? I hope my question makes sense :)

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Your question is perfect, that is why CO himself is going by testing the waters. Refer to suninphx's post he has assumed a 20% destruction factor, Spec has always assumed the same. All calculations apart the 485 actuals will be the true picture. Also we have to have 2 more factors as suninphx has used EB2 – EB3 Ratio and dependent factor. Veni had at one time given a great simplification – No of EB2 I/C 485’s is ~ Number of perms.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Your question is perfect, that is why CO himself is going by testing the waters. Refer to suninphx's post he has assumed a 20% destruction factor, Spec has always assumed the same. All calculations apart the 485 actuals will be the true picture. Also we have to have 2 more factors as suninphx has used EB2 – EB3 Ratio and dependent factor. Veni had at one time given a great simplification – No of EB2 I/C 485’s is ~ Number of perms.

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I agree with Venni's simplification... you can assume various factors and try plugin your own ratios...the number comes amazingly close to PERM total :)

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Your question is perfect, that is why CO himself is going by testing the waters. Refer to suninphx's post he has assumed a 20% destruction factor, Spec has always assumed the same. All calculations apart the 485 actuals will be the true picture. Also we have to have 2 more factors as suninphx has used EB2 – EB3 Ratio and dependent factor. Veni had at one time given a great simplification – No of EB2 I/C 485’s is ~ Number of perms.

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Teddy- my calculation does not include demand destruction due to recession.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Teddy- my calculation does not include demand destruction due to recession.

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My apologies I thought the 20% included both destructions and denials. So really our individual assumptions of the factor will drive the outcome it could really vary from 2-3K. Thanks again to tony for pointing me to that discussion with Spec.

Just noticed another thing we should be reading the second spreadsheet not the first one, the first one represents only those cases approved after Aug 2007. So all in all 2007 was a fairly even year, Jul and subsequent months are fairly comparable, the later month figures are only slightly higher. Thanks to you for analyzing by this debate we may actually come up with the right figures.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

My apologies I thought the 20% included both destructions and denials. So really our individual assumptions of the factor will drive the outcome it could really vary from 2-3K. Thanks again to tony for pointing me to that discussion with Spec.

Just noticed another thing we should be reading the second spreadsheet not the first one, the first one represents only those cases approved after Aug 2007. So all in all 2007 was a fairly even year, Jul and subsequent months are fairly comparable.

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Now that explains....I was wondering from where figures like 1100, 1700, 2100 coming from , in your post :). I am referring to correct table, I think.

Teddy, I myself got into a bit of a loop over this.

For Nov VB, is the 2.5k PWMB being considered part of the 10k incoming traffic or additional.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Teddy, I myself got into a bit of a loop over this.

For Nov VB, is the 2.5k PWMB being considered part of the 10k incoming traffic or additional.

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It should be part of it, I believe you are referring to the 15th Jul - 15th Aug folks.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Now that explains....I was wondering from where figures like 1100, 1700, 2100 coming from , in your post :). I am referring to correct table, I think.

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You are correct on the sheet, I saw both of them initially, and the factors that we choose are quite sensitive though. Still some months are higher than Jul 2007 but it’s mostly even. Let’s try to apply different factors to Jan 2008.

Sun - 2900*0.7*.8*2.05 = 3329

Teddy - 2900 * .75 * .8 * 2.25 = 3915

So even slight deviation to the factors can use significant change. You mentioned one point that people were not concerned about category in 2007 that’s true, but most of these people especially have ported to EB2 because they have no cushion of EAD / AP. On another note I140 approvals were fairly smooth in 2007 and early 2008 when these folks would have been approved the perm part was tougher but these folks had crossed the stage by then.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

It should be part of it, I believe you are referring to the 15th Jul - 15th Aug folks.

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wonderful :)

let me revise my earlier post and put it, it will give an advantage of a month on that mostly.

thank you cbpds1 for bringing to my attention.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

You are correct on the sheet, I saw both of them initially, and the factors that we choose are quite sensitive though. Still some months are higher than Jul 2007 but it’s mostly even. Let’s try to apply different factors to Jan 2008.

Sun - 2900*0.7*.8*2.05 = 3329

Teddy - 2900 * .75 * .8 * 2.25 = 3915

So even slight deviation to the factors can use significant change. You mentioned one point that people were not concerned about category in 2007 that’s true, but most of these people especially have ported to EB2 because they have no cushion of EAD / AP. On another note I140 approvals were fairly smooth in 2007 and early 2008 when these folks would have been approved the perm part was tougher but these folks had crossed the stage by then.

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Teddy thanks for your inputs. We shall know in few months.

When filing for Nov11 VB start showing in demand data? (We already had $10000 worth of dicussion on the numbers for that if you remember :) )

REPOST with correction.

ok, let's take analysis of Teddy on the numbers mixed with bit of mine, to do worst case analysis.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.

Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 10k incoming, includes 2.5k PWMB

I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 10000 = 18,900 let’s consider 19k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional.

To grab hence:
1. 11k with no buffer considered and no porting
2. 8k with no buffer considered and 3k porting
3. 16k with 5k buffer considered and no porting
4. 13k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Per the 485 inventories of past year, let's say CO has seen a 2.5k density each month for EB2IC. And since he is delaying the Dec VB release, say he looks at incoming data as well as the PWMB who filed in Nov VB, and extrapolates to a 3k density, which Teddy pointed out earlier might be possible.

Hence in above each scenario, he needs further movement of:
1. 3.5 month movement to 15th February 2008
2. 2.5 month movement to 15th January 2008
3. 5 months movement to 1st April 2008
4. 4 months movement to 1st March 2008

Please this is just some hypothetical worst case analysis, not arguing here about it should be 3k density, or 2.5 k or 2k density, or porting should be 2k or 4k and so on. It is just to drive home the point that movement is needed, only the length of the movement is to be thought about by CO. I thought a lot about posting this and was almost not posting, because I don’t want to be blamed for my PD is 11/8/2007 and am trying to prove that at least I will be current etc. Nothing is guaranteed, not even a week's move frankly speaking, until it actually happens, we cant read their minds. You can surely plug in your numbers and post what you think it can be.

I understand the concept of huge 140 backlog for EB1, EB2ROW, but CO has been comfortable to give approvals freely for Oct VB as well as Nov VB. So let's say they have used 6k + 2.5k = 8.5k visas already for EB2IC for FY 2012. So it does mean CO is banking on low demand from EB2 ROW and EB1 already. I don’t think based on pressure from USCIS that one day in this FY, they will resolve the huge backlog to some degree, hence don’t grab applications to build inventory that might be useful at end of FY in order to not waste visa numbers, CO will let this bulletin slip by.

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Originally Posted by cbpds1

Assuming all Jun 07 cases will be approved shortly, the number of cases that CO will have for I/C from Spec's spreadsheet is

01-NOV-07 minus 01-AUG-07
16600-10314=6.2K
Porting =3K
Total 9.2K

Obviously he has to make a BTM or am I missing something?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

ok, let's take analysis of Teddy on the numbers mixed with bit of mine, to do worst case analysis.

Oct VB, 15th april to 15th july 2007 caused 5400 reduction in demand data, 2.5k still left as preadjudicated ready to go.
Nov VB, 15th july 2007 to Nov 1st : 2.5k PWMB + 10k new applications.
I am adding 1000 more who were leftovers in late 2006 and early-mid 2007, who were not in demand data for Oct VB, due to various reasons like RFE or just slipped through the cracks, etc.

Also he started the year with around 8k ready to go, and he was comfortable consuming it with QSP. So let's assume he would be ready to have 5k buffer at least to begin the next FY 2013.

Total so far: 5400 + 2500 + 1000 + 2500 + 10000 = 21,400, let’s consider 21.5k

Going by past two years trend, CO would want 30k minimum, even not considering buffer. Lets consider 5k buffer as optional.

To grab hence:
1. 8.5k with no buffer considered and no porting
2. 5.5k with no buffer considered and 3k porting
3. 13.5k with 5k buffer considered and no porting
4. 10.5k with 5k buffer considered and 3k porting

Per the 485 inventories of past year, let's say CO has seen a 2.5k density each month for EB2IC. And since he is delaying the Dec VB release, say he looks at incoming data as well as the PWMB who filed in Nov VB, and extrapolates to a 3k density, which Teddy pointed out earlier might be possible.

Hence in above each scenario, he needs further movement of:
1. 3 month movement to 1st February 2008
2. 2 month movement to 1st January 2008
3. 4.5 months movement to 15th March 2008
4. 3.5 months movement to 15th February 2008

Please this is just some hypothetical worst case analysis, not arguing here about it should be 3k density, or 2.5 k or 2k density, or porting should be 2k or 4k and so on. It is just to drive home the point that movement is needed, only the length of the movement is to be thought about by CO. I thought a lot about posting this and was almost not posting, because I don’t want to be blamed for my PD is 11/8/2007 and am trying to prove that at least I will be current etc. Nothing is guaranteed, not even a week's move frankly speaking, until it actually happens, we cant read their minds. You can surely plug in your numbers and post what you think it can be.

I understand the concept of huge 140 backlog for EB1, EB2ROW, but CO has been comfortable to give approvals freely for Oct VB as well as Nov VB. So let's say they have used 6k + 2.5k = 8.5k visas already for EB2IC for FY 2012. So it does mean CO is banking on low demand from EB2 ROW and EB1 already. I don’t think based on pressure from USCIS that one day in this FY, they will resolve the huge backlog to some degree, hence don’t grab applications to build inventory that might be useful at end of FY in order to not waste visa numbers, CO will let this bulletin slip by.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Teddy, I myself got into a bit of a loop over this.

For Nov VB, is the 2.5k PWMB being considered part of the 10k incoming traffic or additional.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

It should be part of it, I believe you are referring to the 15th Jul - 15th Aug folks.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

wonderful :)

let me revise my earlier post and put it, it will give an advantage of a month on that mostly.

thank you cbpds1 for bringing to my attention.

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Originally Posted by suninphx

Teddy thanks for your inputs. We shall know in few months.

When filing for Nov11 VB start showing in demand data? (We already had $10000 worth of dicussion on the numbers for that if you remember :) )

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Thanks, I agree, lets hope that we have a great Dec bulletin and the 01-MAR-2008 news comes true irrespective of everything. Best of luck to everyone time to give calculations some rest. I hope your factors are true and Iam wrong thats good for everyone :).