EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Thanks for your kind understanding. I need to thank everyone for your hard work. I learnt a big deal from this forum.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

That's ok. No apologies required from anybody.
Lets continue to focus on topics that are valuable to readers of this forum.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.

Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.

Keep our fingers crossed.

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Can you pls paste chinese link for the above information?

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31332681.html

It was writen in Chinese. If you use translator, you can find some info from it.

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Originally Posted by neospeed

Can you pls paste chinese link for the above information?

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The guy contacting CO might be real and the response from CO makes sense too. However, there is no doubt that he was acting on the information grabbed from this site.

Not that it should matter to me or anybody else, if only he could address/refer the source. Instead of passing it as his own.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I don't mean to dispute or demean anybody. But these guys are simply copying our information and sometimes publishing as their own.

If you look back a few pages we broke info about VB which was shamelessly copied and circulated as their own. Thought you should know this since you are clearly unaware of this.

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Referring the source is important and it should be mandatory. I read it some where in back pages before or after July VB, that this Chinese web site (http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html) mentioned what Q said earlier as their information and said Indians got the same info. It would be really great if they have mentioned Q's blog as the source.
But, I guess they are worried mentioning the source, thinking that viewers might join Q's blog instead of going to their site.

10 years ago, my Professor threatened me saying that he will give me E before gave me B, saying that I copied the info, but didn't give reference of the source.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months.

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I don't buy this NVC story. I have said the USCIS process is random not that it is foolish. Good mistakes like 2007 fiasco only happen once in lifetime. In last few years, I have seen so many rumors spreading each time that I no longer believe them.

- makmohan

I think the NVC fee is valid only for 12 months is not correct, what is correct is the notice you get from them, that is only valid for 12 months, you need to act on it, and pay up within 12 months, or that notice is expired.

On a lighter note...and with all due respect.

This is a completely different movie scene :) LOL

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Originally Posted by nayekal

10 years ago, my Professor threatened me saying that he will give me E before gave me B, saying that I copied the info, but didn't give reference of the source.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

I think the NVC fee is valid only for 12 months is not correct, what is correct is the notice you get from them, that is only valid for 12 months, you need to act on it, and pay up within 12 months, or that notice is expired.

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I don't know the rule and so am I am just clarifying. Based on what you mention, if one pays the NVC fee anytime during the 1 year duration from receipt date of the notice, then the fee paid will remain valid for future I485 processing (irrespective of whether the I485 is processed within 12 months or not from the date of payment). To me this makes more sense, as even if someone's PD becomes current in year's time, it is not always guaranteed that the I485 will be adjudicated within that time window.

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

I think the NVC fee is valid only for 12 months is not correct, what is correct is the notice you get from them, that is only valid for 12 months, you need to act on it, and pay up within 12 months, or that notice is expired.

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nishant2200,
I think you are correct, i found this old NVC DS-230 package on the web. Please check language (bold) on page 2.

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Originally Posted by veni001

nishant2200,
I think you are correct, i found this old NVC DS-230 package on the web. Please check language (bold) on page 2.

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Excellent, I too was feverishly searching for proof, and I found something similar:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/28967711/Visa-Processing-Fee

this guy also has similar language on the second page. Nice to get confirmation of doubts. thank you.

Could anyone tell me how much was the total spillover received by EB2-IC during FY2010and FY2009. This is just for my curiosity. I couldnt find this in any of the recent posts and therefore sorry if this is a redundant question.

Adding another question which is actually why I asked above. So with a PD of Feb 2009, I see from the PERM data analysis that there are around 50k (if I take aggresive "factors" into my calc) to 63K (conservative "factors" in calc) ahead of me post July/Aug 2007. This year most of you Gurus estimate VB will go to early/mid 2008 by end of FY2011 and then retrogress. But what is likely to happen after that. I know it is difficult to predict too far out but was just curious on your insights.
Will we have to wait till Q3/Q4 of FY 2012 to see any benefits of SOFAD and even then will it be enough for dates to enter 2009? In other words will people like me with early 2009 PDs be in the situation same time next year as people with early-mid 2008 dates are today. Or will we not be that lucky and have to wait for FY2013 :(.

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Originally Posted by hoping4thebest

Could anyone tell me how much was the total spillover received by EB2-IC during FY2010and FY2009. This is just for my curiosity. I couldnt find this in any of the recent posts and therefore sorry if this is a redundant question.

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hoping4thebest,

FY2009 - 7,545
FY2010 - 20,449

It could have been anywhere b/n 24k to 27k of SOFAD in the previous CIS-Year.

This kind of spillover tells you that wherever we end this year in terms of clearing the backlog, to clear next 1 year of backlog could take 1 or 2 years.

So the spillover this year could very well be 20-30 or even 40K. And next year it could be 6-10K or yet another 20K. It all depends on how much latent demand is sitting in labor 140 and 485 pipelines of EB2ROWMP and EB1.

That's what makes predictions difficult.

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Originally Posted by veni001

hoping4thebest,

FY2009 - 7,545
FY2010 - 20,449

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

This kind of spillover tells you that wherever we end this year in terms of clearing the backlog, to clear next 1 year of backlog could take 1 or 2 years.

So the spillover this year could very well be 20-30 or even 40K. And next year it could be 6-10K or yet another 20K. It all depends on how much latent demand is sitting in labor 140 and 485 pipelines of EB2ROWMP and EB1.

That's what makes predictions difficult.

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Q,
Agree,pending inventories at the beginning of FY, processing times, new demand, economy....lot of variables.
All most all the time it is better not think beyond current FY!

I am curious to hear opinion from others regarding EB1 usage in future. This year, EB1 usage has decreased dramatically due to the Kazaran memo. I will assume that this reduction can be attributed to more stringent criteria for all EB1A, EB1B and EB1C categories. Do we expect the EB1 usage to be on the lower side (at least as compared to the previous years) in the coming years too? If the above memo is followed then my feeling is that EB1 usage will be similar to the current year. However, this may lead to more EB2-ROW cases and that will impact the spillover visas to EB2-I/C at the end; so, effectively decrease in EB1 usage and increase in EB2-ROW visas might just cancel out each other.

The other issue (as pointed out in earlier posts) that will be relevant is that we already have ~19K EB1 + EB2-ROW cases from the June inventory. There will surely be another 5K+ EB1 + EB2-ROW cases that will be submitted during the last quarter (July - Sep). So, overall we will have 25K+ (maybe 25K - 30K) pending EB1 + EB2-ROW applications already in the pipeline for next year by Oct'11. To me, this might indicate fewer spillovers for the next year, irrespective of EB1 and EB2-ROW usage in 2012.

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Originally Posted by pch053

I am curious to hear opinion from others regarding EB1 usage in future. This year, EB1 usage has decreased dramatically due to the Kazaran memo. I will assume that this reduction can be attributed to more stringent criteria for all EB1A, EB1B and EB1C categories. Do we expect the EB1 usage to be on the lower side (at least as compared to the previous years) in the coming years too? If the above memo is followed then my feeling is that EB1 usage will be similar to the current year. However, this may lead to more EB2-ROW cases and that will impact the spillover visas to EB2-I/C at the end; so, effectively decrease in EB1 usage and increase in EB2-ROW visas might just cancel out each other.

The other issue (as pointed out in earlier posts) that will be relevant is that we already have ~19K EB1 + EB2-ROW cases from the June inventory. There will surely be another 5K+ EB1 + EB2-ROW cases that will be submitted during the last quarter (July - Sep). So, overall we will have 25K+ (maybe 25K - 30K) pending EB1 + EB2-ROW applications already in the pipeline for next year by Oct'11. To me, this might indicate fewer spillovers for the next year, irrespective of EB1 and EB2-ROW usage in 2012.

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pch053,
Again lot of variables, not only pending EB1&EB2ROW485 demand but also i140 pipeline (pending numbers almost doubled in the last 12 months), which could definitely include some porting cases!.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

This kind of spillover tells you that wherever we end this year in terms of clearing the backlog, to clear next 1 year of backlog could take 1 or 2 years.

So the spillover this year could very well be 20-30 or even 40K. And next year it could be 6-10K or yet another 20K. It all depends on how much latent demand is sitting in labor 140 and 485 pipelines of EB2ROWMP and EB1.

That's what makes predictions difficult.

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Q and the other experts
First of all thank you for all the hard work you all put in. Being a silent spectator it is just amazing to see all of you doing the crunching of numbers.
I have one questions and pardon me if its been asked and answered before.
Assuming this year when the July 07 point is cleared or even lets say July 07 is reached by May 2012, what are the guidelines for the dates to be moved forward.

Will the DOS arbitrarily choose a date, for example with all the rumors of NVC fee notices uptill June 2008, does that mean they arbitrarily chose June 2008 or does the guidelines say that when the demand has been met, the dates should be made 'current'....weather there will be a 'fiasco' or not...

Thank you in advance for answering my question.

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.

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Originally Posted by Stemcell

Q and the other experts
First of all thank you for all the hard work you all put in. Being a silent spectator it is just amazing to see all of you doing the crunching of numbers.
I have one questions and pardon me if its been asked and answered before.
Assuming this year when the July 07 point is cleared or even lets say July 07 is reached by May 2012, what are the guidelines for the dates to be moved forward.

Will the DOS arbitrarily choose a date, for example with all the rumors of NVC fee notices uptill June 2008, does that mean they arbitrarily chose June 2008 or does the guidelines say that when the demand has been met, the dates should be made 'current'....weather there will be a 'fiasco' or not...

Thank you in advance for answering my question.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.

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Q,

I might be totally out of line here but do you think we will get an answer from DOS/CO if we posed this question to them. A clarification in this regard would help so many of us plan better.

New to Forum, Liked it - Kudos Guys

Question here regarding Facts and data Table
did you guys account for following scenario when you are calculating Data
My PD is DEC 2007 however it took 26 Months to get my Labor Certified ( FEB 2010), does my number got included in dec data or feb 2010 data ?

just curious

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.

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Thank you for answering Q.
When July 07 happened do you all know how the situation was, was the demand zero at that time or was it just an accidental opening of gates.
Because if the the dates were made current in July 07 when demand was zero maybe it will be applicable this year or whenever we reach zero demand isnt it?

Q,

What are the chances for this scenario:

Based on spillover received in 2011, Clear all EB2 (I & C) up to July 2007 by fiscal year 2011, Then in FY 2012 beginning Oct 2011 - April/May/Jun 2012 use the regular EB2 (I) quota for portings and then move dates EB2 & EB3 till Oct or Dec 2007. This way they will receive new filings (gradually) and also use the spill over (2012) to clear up cases in EB3(ROW & I)?

Does EB2 need to be current for any spillover to EB3?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.

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Originally Posted by Teja9999

New to Forum, Liked it - Kudos Guys

Question here regarding Facts and data Table
did you guys account for following scenario when you are calculating Data
My PD is DEC 2007 however it took 26 Months to get my Labor Certified ( FEB 2010), does my number got included in dec data or feb 2010 data ?

just curious

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Teja9999,
Yes, please check FY-CY Matrix for PERM approvals (2007 to Q2-2011).

Your PERM certification should be part of the 1,005 certifications for PD 2007 in FY 2010.

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Originally Posted by Stemcell

Thank you for answering Q.
When July 07 happened do you all know how the situation was, was the demand zero at that time or was it just an accidental opening of gates.
Because if the the dates were made current in July 07 when demand was zero maybe it will be applicable this year or whenever we reach zero demand isnt it?

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Stemcell,
I don't think DOS/USCIS was tracking demand closely or had coordination in setting monthly VB cut-off dates in 2007

Thanks for clarification, now i understood ( i am still a rookie :))

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Originally Posted by Teja9999

Thanks for clarification, now i understood ( i am still a rookie :))

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Teja9999,
Welcome, we all started as rookie(s) :):)

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Originally Posted by veni001

Stemcell,
I don't think DOS/USCIS was tracking demand closely or had coordination in setting monthly VB cut-off dates in 2007

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Thank you Veni for the clarification.

' I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. '

Q,

If the person who received the NVC letter with the priority date of June 08 is to be believed someone in DOS may be thinking like you...to move the dates by 1 year. July 07 to June 08.....I am not a number cruncher but just your statement and the NVC letters seemed a coincidence....

its a good coincidence. People receiving NVC notices corroborates to some extent our argument. But our argument is primarily based in the logic that come May 2012 DoS doesnt want to find itself in a situation where SOFAD exists but not enough approvable demand exists. They need 9 months to process 1 year worth demand from EB2IC + ROWMP.

While its possible that SOFAD in 2012 could very well be very limited, DoS can't make decision about it on that chance.

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Originally Posted by Stemcell

' I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. '

Q,

If the person who received the NVC letter with the priority date of June 08 is to be believed someone in DOS may be thinking like you...to move the dates by 1 year. July 07 to June 08.....I am not a number cruncher but just your statement and the NVC letters seemed a coincidence....

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

its a good coincidence. People receiving NVC notices corroborates to some extent our argument. But our argument is primarily based in the logic that come May 2012 DoS doesnt want to find itself in a situation where SOFAD exists but not enough approvable demand exists. They need 9 months to process 1 year worth demand from EB2IC + ROWMP.

While its possible that SOFAD in 2012 could very well be very limited, DoS can't make decision about it on that chance.

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So maybe DOS and USCIS have become very efficient (monthly demand data is evidence of that) we may see a situation where they do not want to waste any spillover. In the past there has been visa wastage is my understanding.All this makes me very nervous with a PD of October 2007. Till late i was a living a learned helplessness life and now i see hope....which sometimes causes anxiety.
Thanks again guys.

comfort. I hope you will get your green card soon!

best wishes to you.

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Originally Posted by Stemcell

So maybe DOS and USCIS have become very efficient (monthly demand data is evidence of that) we may see a situation where they do not want to waste any spillover. In the past there has been visa wastage is my understanding.All this makes me very nervous with a PD of October 2007. Till late i was a living a learned helplessness life and now i see hope....which sometimes causes anxiety.
Thanks again guys.

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DOS & CIS would also remain how the July 2007 applications brought the system to a screeching halt for months.

Agreeing that they would move the dates far enough, IMO, they would do it in phases. Validating the lines at each point.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

its a good coincidence. People receiving NVC notices corroborates to some extent our argument. But our argument is primarily based in the logic that come May 2012 DoS doesnt want to find itself in a situation where SOFAD exists but not enough approvable demand exists. They need 9 months to process 1 year worth demand from EB2IC + ROWMP.

While its possible that SOFAD in 2012 could very well be very limited, DoS can't make decision about it on that chance.

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Leo you are right. The question is how far each line should be? 3 months 6 months or 9 months or something else?

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Originally Posted by leo07

DOS & CIS would also remain how the July 2007 applications brought the system to a screeching halt for months.

Agreeing that they would move the dates far enough, IMO, they would do it in phases. Validating the lines at each point.

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If they look back last 2-3 years, conservatively they will need a inventory of 6-9 months to traverse smoothly in 2012. Like without having to waste visas or go through a mad rush of allocating visas at random.

Here is where I think, DOS/CIS, with their past experience, will responsibly move the dates in phases of 3-4 months at a time to cover the inventory, without taxing the CIS pipelines.

Again, this is all hypothetical and my own view, if it helps any, CIS had traditionally/historically proven me wrong. :)

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Leo you are right. The question is how far each line should be? 3 months 6 months or 9 months or something else?

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Originally Posted by leo07

Here is where I think, DOS/CIS, with their past experience, will responsibly move the dates in phases of 3-4 months at a time to cover the inventory, without taxing the CIS pipelines.

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They will move dates very conservatively.
I agree with your 3-4 month at a time estimate and I firmly believe that dates will not reach early 2008 until Nov-Dec 2011 . They will get so much PWMB demand that they will have a buffer so they will proceed with caution.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Leo you are right. The question is how far each line should be? 3 months 6 months or 9 months or something else?

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I wonder if feedback from advocacy groups have an impact on DOS setting the future dates during the next couple of visa bulletins.What i mean if the DOS does not have a plan as to what to do next.... whether to make dates current or to slowly move the dates, they can feel the pulse of the immigration community and do so accordingly. I may be way out of line here but again just a thought......

My priority date is August 2009.

Am I too optimistic in thinking that possibly in 2011 I will be able to apply for i-485 EAD and by 2012 I will get GC?

Please correct me (hopefully I am not horribly optimistic) and let me know a scenario that is more probable in this case.

Appreciate it...you guys rock!

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.

Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.

Keep our fingers crossed.

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Hey Guys,
May be a stupid question here so please pardon in advance. I was curious what does CO above stand for? Is it the visa office in DOS that determines the bulletin? If so, how come the chinese guy is able to get replies from them directly?

I guess what I am trying to get to is, if it's so easy to get replies from the actual "man" himself, then why do we all waste so much time predicting, when we can directly approach the "man" and ask him what's next?