Finally reminds me of the 2012 days when there was rapid movement. The most important news is that EB3 visas not used by EB3 will flow back to EB1 and then to EB2.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
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Finally reminds me of the 2012 days when there was rapid movement. The most important news is that EB3 visas not used by EB3 will flow back to EB1 and then to EB2.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I still remember the February 2012 bulletin where the dates moved by a year for both India and China to January 1, 2010. I thought they will stop there for sure. It continued even further eventually ending up at May 2010. Positive thoughts. Lets hope for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
It's always good to stay positive.Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
My personal assessment is that EB2I ends up getting 8k of SO and that might be good enough to clear the dates until Aug 2009. CO might end up moving a couple of months more as there will be RFEs that will not be responded to in a timely manner, and therefore he might want some buffer created.
I do not think the dates will move into 2010 as there simply is too much inventory to be taken care off.
I think Spec is the best person on this forum and his statements are like gold. Spec, whats the cut-off date in your mind that EB2I will hit by the end of this FY. I know Spec is a numbers guy and will provide all the data, but he mostly wont put out cut-off dates estimates. Lets see if he does this time around ?
Back in Feb I had mentioned that AOS interviews will cause this situation. No one took me seriously then.
Folks till May 2010 will not need interviews. This will happen next year as well and same thing will happen next year as well. Folks till May 2010 are golden now. If not this year by next year May 2010 will be done.
2010 in general will see light at the end of the tunnel.
The scenario is a little different from 2012, that in 2012 the movement enabled people to file 485s. The current movement will only be to clear some of that backlog, and allowing others to file who missed it last time. Not much of a impact on inventory build up, I guessQuote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Quote:
Originally Posted by srimurthy
i am new to this forum
I am May 2014 EB1 India .just go ported from EB2 to EB1B . When will Eb1 india be current? Can u pls tell me
Well, inventory build up can only happen once pending inventory diminishes. So, this will help.Quote:
Originally Posted by srimurthy
I am EB1B-India May 2014. I just ported from EB2. When will I be current?
I guess there maybe unaccounted Eb3-EB2 porting cases post Jul 1st 2009, which has not been current since 2012. That is the big unknown and only when dates move beying jul 2009 we can make any guess on build up.Quote:
Originally Posted by srimurthy
Dear Experts, I have a slightly different question, hope someone can kindly help me. My I140 is approved. My old attorney who helped me with
I140 approval many years back is retiring so I requested my client files, so that I can transfer them to my new Attorney.
Old Attorney sent me the files. On the I140 Petition, I noticed that the Attorney had done the Typo and put my SSN information wrong.
My company did not share the filled I140 forms with me, so I could review it during time of filing. Can someone kindly advise how serious is the mistake and
how can it be corrected ? Thanks a lot in Advance.
After looking at the spreadsheet on the visa issuance, I have a very optimistic view that Eb2 India should move until 2011.
140000 - 62000 = 78000 visas might be available maximum as spillover. With these numbers available Eb2 India can easily clear cases until may 2010 because applicants who have filled AOS do not need the interview.
This is just my analysis and understanding of the spreadsheet.
Thanks. Still around and still waiting to get greened. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Prabhas
Again, you are forgetting CP cases. Spec mentioned this a few posts back.Quote:
Originally Posted by Immigrate
Unlike the past the new filers since March 2017 are handled by field offices, so we are at a massive disadvantage now to see the count of ROW for all the EB categories. I generally maintain an optimistic view, however the lack of RFE's flurry for EB2 I does not give me any confidence to see the dates going beyond March 2009 for EB2I.Quote:
Originally Posted by Immigrate
Last year I was of the opinion that EB3 I should have been at March/April 2007 (@trackitt), however the dates stopped at October 2006. In addition there was no movement for the first quarter this FY. I will be happy if all the pending EB2 I till May 2010 gets cleared by the end of this FY.
murthy didnt sound that optimistic
https://www.murthy.com/2018/05/23/ju...and-eb3-india/
Charles Oppenheim, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, provides visa bulletin explanations and predictions most months. For June 2018, Mr. Oppenheim discusses the possibility of movement in the employment-based, second preference (EB2) and employment-based, third preference (EB3) categories for India.
Delays Caused by Interview Requirement May Lead to Advancement
As expected, the in-person interview requirement for most employment-based I-485 applicants has resulted in processing delays by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). More details on the interview requirement are available in the MurthyDotCom NewsBrief, USCIS Provides Clarification on In-Person Interview Requirement in EB I-485 Cases (23.Oct.2017). It appears that this has resulted in fewer-than-expected visa numbers being used. In order to ensure that the full allotment of visa numbers is used for fiscal year 2018, which ends September 30, 2018, it may be necessary to advance the cutoff date for EB2 and EB3 India, and possibly that of EB2 China.
Mr. Oppenheim does not know yet how far he may be able to advance the cutoff dates. Further, he is careful to point out that this advancement is not a certainty. If there is a fluctuation in demand, this could prevent Mr. Oppenheim from advancing the cutoff dates at all.
I think we need to wait and watch what happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
I think a few immigration attorneys have also discussed the possibility of unused EB visas being wasted/applied to FB into next year.
William Stock Tweet about Backlog
Does anyone have knowledge of the reverse scenario, possibly a greater number of unused FB visas, applying to EB for next year, because of the interview requirement?
Are the 485 interview requirements only for Employment based GCs or for Family based too?Quote:
Originally Posted by NeelVohra
This has happened atleast 3 times this decadeQuote:
Originally Posted by NeelVohra
The fiscal year 2012 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 144,951
The fiscal year 2014 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 150,241.
he fiscal year 2015 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 144,796.
FB Extra Visas to EBQuote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
FY2017 --------- 0
FY2016 ------- 338
FY2015 ----- 4,796
FY2014 ---- 10,241
FY2013 ---- 18,466
FY2012 ----- 4,951
FY2011 --------- 0
FY2010 ---- 10,657
FY2009 --------- 0
FY2008 ---- 22,704
Total ----- 72,153
Extra FB visas (of which there shouldn't have been any) probably represented the largest contribution to SO numbers.
Think what the Cut Off Dates would look like without them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec, are you anticipating if there will be spillovers left for FB after applying it to EB?
No, or very limited.Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
Over 90% of FB visa issuances are at Consular Posts and are not affected by USCIS actions. In FY2017, only about 13.5k FB cases of 225.7k were AOS approvals, compared to 212.2k CP cases..
The FB AOS cases that USCIS do process have always needed an interview.
Here's the CP figures for October 2017 to March 2018.
Country/Cat ---- FB1 ---- FB2A ---- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 - Grand Total
China ---------- 323 --- 1,795 ----- 371 ---- 877 -- 2,725 ------- 6,091
India ---------- 160 ----- 868 ------ 78 -- 1,456 -- 6,153 ------- 8,715
Mexico --------- 620 -- 10,294 ----- 524 ---- 419 -- 2,262 ------ 14,119
Philippines ---- 867 --- 2,193 --- 1,876 ---- 626 -- 1,824 ------- 7,386
ROW --------- 12,317 -- 24,781 --- 9,196 -- 6,918 - 16,842 ------ 70,054
Grand Total - 14,287 -- 39,931 -- 12,045 - 10,296 - 29,806 ----- 106,365
CO can manage both the Filing Date and Final Action Date to ensure greater CP utilization as necessary.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for your response . Very informative appreciate it.
Do you have any estimate of how much Spill over EB2-India might get this FY?
No I don't.Quote:
Originally Posted by march1612
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
There is a reason EB3 Field approvals are higher than EB2 and EB1, last year EB1-I&C and EB2- ROW+P+M all had cut off dates in last qtr, so the filings of the AOS for these categories are less, however EB3 did not had a cutoff and they field the applications.
Also field offices in and around to metro cities are clearing faster than the other cities.
Based on Jan inventory, new filings are also fewer than compared with previous qtr's.
Q1 new 485 filings is also down compared with previous qtr's.
Right now we are in a kind of dark spot untill next clear data points are released to make any clear concise prediction.
Assuming that there are some unused visa numbers in Eb2 and some in Eb3, my understanding is that Eb2 numbers will be utilized by retrogressed countries in EB2. The same would apply to EB-3 under normal conditions. However in the scenario that is being discussed here EB3 numbers will fall up to EB-1. However what stops EB-1 from completely utilizing these numbers. If EB-1C and EB-1I both have a cut off date, wouldn't they get first dibs on these additional visa numbers?
Under which scenarios would these numbers fall down to Eb2 ?
Oh come on Spec. You do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
There is nobody who has a better understanding of numbers compared to you. Please pick a date where you think EB2I will move to by the end of this FY. :)
One observation.
EB3I really does not have many people who had filed I485 earlier and hence most new application OR most of the new demand from EB3I is mostly going to have to go through the interview process.
I was just thinking that some people might be downgrading from EB2I to EB3I as they have a very BIG advantage. The advantage is that they would be the only candidates in EB3 that do not require an interview and can consume the SO from EB3ROW.
Am I missing something here ? I am not sure how a downgrade is interpreted ? Will a downgrade need an interview or not ?
Here is what you are missing. EB3I dates have not caught up to EB2I dates and until that happens why would anyone reverse port? Spec had given some pointers in this direction and I was personally thinking of this. But that's when the closed loop spillover calc showed up in CO's presentation. So this year there will be no visa wastage. Reverse porting if any will happen next year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Iatiam
I have read through the presentation and I do understand how the SO is going to flow. That is not what my question was.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
Lets discuss the below scenario.
1. The most important thing is to determine how CO moves the dates.
2. We all know that EB3I has little to no inventory and thus CO might want to do an inventory build up and move the final action dates like the good old dates. In the past when the inventory is so low he would move it by a year. Past meaning 2010 - 2012 days.
3. Lets assume he moves the dates such that EB2I and EB3I are both having the same cut-off.
4. So lets say that the dates for both EB2I and EB3I end up at May 2009 for Aug VB.
Now lets think about someone who has PD in May 2009. He would have so many people like me ahead of him/her for the EB2I queue. But in EB3I there might virtually be nobody in front of him/her. Would it make sense for him/her to downgrade ?
For someone like me with Jan 2009 PD it does not make sense but for someone with PD in summer 2009 it might be a short cut and if executed correctly can get GC a year earlier.
Thank you Spec, for the precise detail - 10 years. In fact I had compiled the statistics of EB3 performace overthe last 10 years, i need to calculate the variance or missed numbers based on this instead of standard 40040. By any chance do you have that handy?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Any one received RFE for 2009 yet? If yes, up till mid 2009?Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
EB2I with PD 31MAR09 or earlier are getting RFE now. Many such people had reported RFE in trackitt.Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
Thanks Idliman;Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
Quote:
Originally Posted by texas_
About 10-15 people reported till March 31st 2009. Last quarter, low demand, low perms, lot of anticipation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AceMan
This is probably what you are looking for:
----------- Alloc. -- Actual
Category --- EB3 ------ EB3 ------- Diff.
FY2017 --- 40,040 --- 37,770 ---- (2,270)
FY2016 --- 40,137 --- 37,540 ---- (2,597)
FY2015 --- 41,413 --- 37,450 ---- (3,963)
FY2014 --- 42,969 --- 42,699 ------ (270)
FY2013 --- 45,321 --- 43,740 ---- (1,581)
FY2012 --- 41,456 --- 39,549 ---- (1,907)
FY2011 --- 40,040 --- 37,425 ---- (2,615)
FY2010 --- 43,088 --- 42,431 ------ (657)
FY2009 --- 40,040 --- 39,778 ------ (262)
FY2008 --- 46,533 --- 47,165 ------- 632
Total --- 421,037 -- 405,547 --- (15,490)
Be careful in making a categorical statement that these are lost to EB3-India alone.
Most EB3 Countries were retrogressed as well over this period. USCIS failings in processing cases in a timely fashion, or DOS moving the dates sufficiently, apply equally to them as well. Ultimately though, EB3-ROW would likely have become Current sooner and EB3-I would have benefited for a longer period.
This table shows, among other things, how EB3-I has benefited over the period, even though it might have been more if EB3 had been managed properly.
----------- Total ------ 7% ------ Total ---- 7% ------------- EB3-I Over/
Category -- EB1-3 ---- EB1-3 ----- EB4-5 -- EB4-5 --- EB3-I - (Under) vs 7%
FY2017 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 6,641 -------- 3,838
FY2016 --- 40,137 ---- 2,810 ----- 9,964 ---- 697 --- 4,617 -------- 1,807
FY2015 --- 41,413 ---- 2,899 ---- 10,280 ---- 720 --- 7,026 -------- 4,127
FY2014 --- 42,969 ---- 3,008 ---- 10,667 ---- 747 --- 3,526 ---------- 518
FY2013 --- 45,321 ---- 3,172 ---- 11,251 ---- 788 --- 7,816 -------- 4,644
FY2012 --- 41,456 ---- 2,902 ---- 10,291 ---- 720 --- 2,804 ---------- (98)
FY2011 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 4,002 -------- 1,199
FY2010 --- 43,088 ---- 3,016 ---- 10,697 ---- 749 --- 3,036 ----------- 20
FY2009 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 2,304 --------- (499)
FY2008 --- 46,533 ---- 3,257 ---- 11,552 ---- 809 --- 3,745 ---------- 488
Total ------------------------------------------------------------- 16,044
Will there be any spill over from EB4 and EB5 categories? interview process might have effected these categories too.
Just to jog everyone's memory, ImmigrationGirl (Emily Neumann) and her partner Rahul Reddy are partly responsible for the GC backlog mess that we see today. Search for ITserve video and you will see. These lawyers including Murthy are not the friends of immigrants. Appreciate everyone stop posting links to their websites! Also, please take what they say with a huge pile of sodium chloride.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
Iatiam
I agree with you whole heatedly. It's the Rahul Reddy, Murthy aunty and some US based counter parts are heavily responsible for current back-log.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
I don't give any incentive nothing new that they are saying just posting videos and marketing etc
Sorry, I am not very active in this forum.Quote:
Originally Posted by iatiam
Can somebody please explain what they did to increase the back-log?
Thanks