Hello Gurus,
Are there any predictions for how far EB3 India dates will end up in Q4 FY2014?
Thanks!
Printable View
Hello Gurus,
Are there any predictions for how far EB3 India dates will end up in Q4 FY2014?
Thanks!
Texas service center sent RFEs last year, I think most of those RFE cases got GC last August/September. Any body remember what time was that?
May bulletin is expected in about 10 days. 60 days from that point before Q4 bulletin releases, not seeing any indication of trends. Am I missing something?
Now that 6 months have gone by in current USCIS year, trackitt data is now somewhat reliable. So we have observed some trackitt trends. Pl see header.
Basically we think that EB1-C India will consume quite a bit more compared to last year, whereas EB2ROW is on way to record low approvals (if current trend continues). This second point could be a very good news for EB2I.
Lastly we also think that EB3ROW consumption has accelerated compared to prior year by 25% and so EB3I shouldn't expect any SOFAD like prior year.
Heartfelt wishes to everybody!
https://scontent-a-lax.xx.fbcdn.net/...08095739_n.jpg
Quote:
Originally Posted by sreddy
Late June!! I think most of them came around last week of June.
The mass RFE's went out on June 14th, 2013.Quote:
Originally Posted by sreddy
It is expected that PD will likely move from July to September. My PD is Jan 2009, I am hoping for some luck and get current in September. Does that mean I will likely get RFE in August? And does GC get mailed in September or later? Thanks to all who can respond.
You won't necessarily get a RFE - not everyone gets one. The physical GC takes a couple of months (IIRC). However, if you need to travel or anything, I believe you can get it stamped on your passport at your local USCIS office.Quote:
Originally Posted by ksur23
Hi,
My Priority date is 03-25-2009, EB2-I. I didn't apply last time when my priority date was current, what are the chances of getting at least EAD this year?
Thanks.
Got it. Thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Moved the EB3-I 2013 SOFAD discussion to
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...FAD-Discussion
For any further comments please go there. Please do not use this thread for that discussion.
anyone please?
Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
EB2-bunchofnumbers ... for you unfortunately the chances for an EAD and GC are pretty similar. The reason being there is a large backlog ahead of you that is quite mature i.e. ready to allocate visas. So CO has no reason to move dates far ahead unless visas are available. So he is calibrating EB2I moves very fine. The only reason we see retrogression is because of the artificial 3K limit. But realistically at the end of the year the dates are going to jump .. the chances of the dates jumping to Mar 2009 are 30-50% IMHO.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
Once they jump there and you file you will receive your GC within 4-5 months.
...assuming your dates remain current.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Yep. Thanks Viz.!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Hi Experts, my priority date is May 2010 in EB2 and it has been a tough 6 years since i went back home. I want to go home only after getting an EAD and not worry about stamping. What are my chances this year ? Or next ? Greatly appreciate any inputs.
Hello Friends...
From the Demand Data I see about 30K pending for EB2I. Consular processing may have about 10K applicants. So a total outstanding applications till Apr 2010 is about 40K.
My PD is Dec 2010 EB2I.
As per my calculations if I assume a 15K GC allocation/SOFAD to EB2I for next two FYs, and a 3K porting for next two FYs, I am hoping that I should be able to file for EAD at the end of 2015 calender year (about 16K pending applications i.e. DD + Consular). Worst case would be July 2016.
Request you to point anything I may have missed and probable timeframe when I can file for EAD as per your calculations.
Thanks in Advance!
skpanda - I think this is reasonable and decently conservative. If there are more visas ... all the better!Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
mknop1 - I feel for you. I hope you are not hurt if I say this year there is absolutely zero chance that EB2I May 2010 will be current. I do not think it will be current at least for another 12 months from now. I would be pleased if I am proven wrong.
If I were you I would go back meet folks and stamp and come back. Just my 2 cents. Don't mean to hurt you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mknop1
Thanks Q...
A year ago I was hoping that I will be current at the end of 2014 Calender Year and avoid re-stamping in Feb 2015 when my visa expires (total 9 years of H1B).
As it appears there is zero chance of that. Hence I am mentally preparing myself for the best and worst case.
I have to get a new Visa stamp next year since I travel outside the country almost every month. I do not have any issues with that.. my only problem is my wife (on H4) is ready to start working early next year and we will have to either wait for EAD or look for a H1B employer. Seeking H1B for 9 months or 1 year before EAD may not be worth it.. so we might just wait it out and waste about 1 year.
If only CIR or some bill could get some relief to H4s.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You're welcome skpanda.
You hope was alright. But one of the dynamic that has shifted the conventional 5 year wait is that now EB3I folks are getting mature in their careers and started porting into EB2. So that kind of has stalled EB2I movement a little. EB2I is still a whole lot better than EB3I but unfortunately for the EB2I folks with PD post mid 2008, now the wait has become even more agonizing with these EB3I portings.
For backlogged countries like India CIR is the only hope as industry has a vested interest in keeping H1B slavery intact. So nobody will work on EB immigration (zuckerberg is an honorable exception). As of now indeed it seems that any immigration reform for EB must be tagged to FB.
Good luck for your plans. My one piece of advice - if you don't mind. Don't wait on anything. Keep working on life and career. GC will take care of itself someday.
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
qesehmk - Thanks for replying. I have been through a prolonged stamping experience once before so do not want to take the risk again. My family visits us regularly so i can't complain too much. What are my chances next year ? Or the year after ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
May 2010 realistically seems like USCIS year 2016 end. So around Aug-Sep 2016 I would say.Quote:
Originally Posted by mknop1
My PD is Mar 2010 and I was few of the lucky one's who got EAD -my wife can work and I changed jobs also (that it's a headache is another story:( ). EAD is really good but unless you get GC, they take you to secondary inspection each time at PoE, it feels pretty bad :). I changed jobs for role (no money increase) and some times I question myself as to why I did that.
EAD gives you some extra stability but life without GC is still a painful process - license, travel, job etc.
I don't want to discourage you. But do you know, (God forbid), if I-485 gets denied, then you will have to leave country immediately. But if you would have used your H1 to work and use AC21, then even if I-485 gets denied, you can continue staying here and re-apply or apply for MTR.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Actually I am also in same boat, and that looks like a sword hanging on my head all the time.
skpanda: the demand data for EB2I of around 29,000 till April 2010 comprises of consular processing approved petitions AND the I-485s at USCIS centers - no need to double count.
Q, vizcard, kanmani, jagan and all other gurus,
Based on how it went last year it appears that RFE's may start in next 2 months for people who are likely to get GC in August/September of this year. I missed the GC boat by 10 days last year (my date was in the 4th week of June).
Can we say 95% of RFE's issued last year were related to Employment Verification letter alone? do you think we may still get Birth Certificate/Medical RFE's even if our files have been long pre-adjudicated?
Please share your thoughts.
Venkat
It's a risk I took given the long delays. I have never heard a AC21 denial case yet. I did consult with Murthy and the lawyer said that seems to falls under "similar" category.Quote:
Originally Posted by primus
Venkat - I honestly never really gave a thought to RFEs. But looking at your date - you should be one of the first ones out of the gate. If you haven't received an RFE then the likelihood of receiving any is zero and you should've your GC pretty much in August (worst case Sep).Quote:
Originally Posted by venkat
qesehmk - Thanks again for your reply. Appreciate it. You mentioned that there might be possible tailwind related to EB2 ROW low usage. If that is considered true, how could that impact the possibility of EAD for May 2010 ?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
mknop1 - EB2ROW is presenting an interesting situation no doubt. YTD usage is 25% compared to prior year. However there is still 6 more months to go and so we will see how it goes. But even if EB2ROW does provide full force tailwinds that will still not help you get EAD this year. May 2010 is just too far out I think. Sorry I don't have a better news for you.
qesehmk - Thank you very much for taking the time and effort to answer my questions. Appreciate it very much,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
You're very welcome mk.Quote:
Originally Posted by mknop1
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
The PERM certifications have spiked. Since Jan 1, 2014 there are 18000 PERM approvals. https://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?e...pAdvCertSearch
Do you think EBROW candidates with PERM approvals beyond May will be able to get I-485 approved this year ?
Can Q, Kanmani, Viz, Matt, other Gurus please provide your opinion about what period PERM certifications should we be taking into consideration ?
Below is some data and analysis from my side:
Fiscal Year------------Period Considered-------------PERM Certifications------------EB2ROW Vis
FY2011----------------Apr 10 - Apr 11----------------58k------------------------------34k
FY2012----------------Apr 11 - Jan 12----------------33k------------------------------24k
FY2013----------------Jan 12 - Apr 13----------------66k------------------------------41k
We have 40k PERM Certifications from Apr 13 - Apr 14. I think that would map to 25k considering the above data. That would translate to 9k SOFA. I believe we have already used up EB2I annual quota and also used up the SO from FB to EB2. Considering that EB1C consume all its quota and SO from EB4, we are only left with this 9k.
We have 9k pending inventory prior to Oct 2008. CO said dates might move to Dec 2008 which will be true as he only would have capacity to give GC to people until Oct 2008. I am tensed as Jan 2009 is looking more and more unrealistic as time goes by.
Jagan
While compiling this data did you also look at years approved.
so e.g. although 66K were approved in 2013 ... what was the distribution of the PDs? If you haven't looked that way then you may want to do that.
So without verifying the data - I will say this.
Any perm approved after Feb may not be processed fast enough to get through current year quota. So as far as 2014 is concerned you may want to consider PERM data only until Jan or Feb at the most. That's my thought .... what do you think?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I did consider the years approved and have also listed them. Apr 10 means Apr 2010. I have noticed on trackitt that the people getting I-485 approved in Mar 2014 have had their I-140 approved in (Feb/Mar 2014). Most of the are premium processing and their PERM approval was sometime in Dec 2013 to Jan 2014. This makes me think that people getting I-485 in July 2014 would be those who have their PERM approved in Apr 2014.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Approval dates based on the above theory
PERM-----I-140-------I485
Dec 13----Feb 14-----Mar 14
Feb 14----Apr 14-----May 14
Apr 14----June 14-----Jul 14
PS: I am not considering the PDs as they do not bear any significance because EB2ROW is current. PERM approval dates do matter and they are shown above.
Jagan,
I do agree with Q, except taking Feb slab, I consider up to march. I think concurrent filed straight forward cases pass through within 6 months of perm approval.
I recommend you to consider only Regular I140 cases. Did you notice the I-140 backlog ?
Jagan - you are right there when you want to consider future approvals. But if you were to consider prior year demand then PD is better because that gives better idea of demand variation from one year to next (i mean raw annual demand).
This is a significant problem with PERM data that it is not homogenous. It represents multiple years of PDs and creates difficulties to analyze annual demand of backlogged countries.
Anyway ... I think it will be a good idea to wait a while and watch if this spikes EB2ROW approvals.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Jagan,
The increase in speed of PERM is a BIG concern but I would raise alarm when USCIS starts increasing their pace of I-140 approvals. Look at the below link and download the csv file.
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1
You will note that the I-140 approvals for 2013 were close to 100K. (You will need to make some assumptions, since Eb2row was U for 3 months in 2012)
Aug 13 - Jan 14 I-140 approvals = 27K (46% annual drop)
Lets assume that USCIS does 43K more approvals(60% increase) over the next 6 months i.e. (27K + 43K) 70K I-140 approved till Jul 14, then that is a drop of 30% in I-140 approvals.
If we club EB1 and EB2 together(80K approvals in 2013), that is a approval rate of 80K * 70% = 56K for 2014.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Please find the latest version of my document estimating the EB India Visa allocations for FY 2014 here. This is a conservative estimate, personally I feel EB2 India will get more visas than listed in this document. Most of you might not agree to these numbers but I've the key data pointers which are suggesting these numbers and I'll disclose those pointers in future months. At this point I'll open this to everyone for comments & to debate on why these numbers can't be true. These numbers are purely based on past statistics of all EB categories and considering current trends in all the areas of EB categories and how these trends affect the EB2 India visa allocation.
With this estimate EB2-I will get 21k visas in FY14 and there is already 5.5k visas are allocated in FY14 quota for EB2I, hence the remaining 15.5k will clear the existing EB2I backlogs till 1-Apr-2009.
Again, my personal feel is that we even cross this and go to Jun-09, anyways we will know what happens in next 6 months.