EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

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08-13-2013, 02:17 PM
desitiger

Cannot thank god enough !!
08-13-2013, 02:17 PM
qesehmk

Not reducing - he says - there was less than expected demand in last 2 months. IMHO that could be just white noise. As per next year ... think about it ... there won't be 18K FB visas.. so that cuts a lot of movement right there. Everything else being equal - next year could be extremely tight i.e. 6 months of less movement. Don't mean to scare ... but just saying that at this moment it's all hazy. We will know more as we understand the exact level of SOFAD this year and consumption of EB1 and EB2ROw.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdmay2008

One more thing to note is EB2-ROW and EB1 demand is reducing. This is definitely good news for FY2014 spillover. I expect it will clear out whole 2009 next year, CO has to open gates again for more demand. I wish good luck to all EB2I.
08-13-2013, 02:19 PM
venkat

Thanks once again Q. I completely understand now

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

It all depends on how efficiently and in totality they are able to address the cases that are current in EB2I. If they do, then obviously the monthly 286 or limit for EB2I to be utilized will require some forward movement. In reality it is possible that EB2I leaves more than 3K unadjudicated with PDs prior to Jun 15 2008, in that case there definitely won't be a forward movement. Today we don't know how well and upto what extend the backlog will be cleared upto Jun 15 2008.
08-13-2013, 02:19 PM
civilengineer

I think the rule of thumb for EB2I of PD+5 years is not valid any more. It is more like 6-7 years now. The first page can be updated as such on this thread or new threads.
08-13-2013, 02:20 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec - we wouldn't know that until the DHS annual report is published for 2013.

CO pretty much says so himself.

Quote:

The Employment-based Third preference cut-off date for most countries was advanced at an extremely rapid pace in April through July in an effort to generate demand. Historically such movements have resulted in a dramatic increase in applicant demand for numbers within a few months. At this time there is no indication that the expected increase is materializing or will do so in the near future. This has resulted in significant movements in the September cut-off for all countries.

He previously said (in the July VB)

Quote:

Worldwide:

No additional movement. This cut-off date has advanced 18 months during the past three months. Such rapid movement can be expected to generate a significant amount of new demand, with the impact not being felt for three to five months. Therefore, the cut-off date will be held until it can be determined what level of demand is to be expected, and whether it is likely to be sustained.

Even then, he was admitting that the later movement was unlikely to translate into demand, since 5 months would be in the new FY.

Had he moved the Dates earlier and then moved them further (as I was surprised he didn't - see my previous posts), then he would not be in a position of having so little demand for ROW/C/M that he would feel the need to move EB3-I forward by 8 months.

That covers as many as 6.9k AOS visas according to the latest USCIS Inventory. We all know that is not a correct figure, since a large number of porters need to be removed from that gross figure. However, it represents at least a year's extra movement due to CO's improper movement of other Countries within EB3 (whether deliberate or not).

Since I forecast that would be the result of the late movement and the failure to keep moving dates forward, I feel perfectly justified in complaining about it, since it was a very obvious danger.

He should have moved the dates earlier and further, then retrogressed towards the end of the year if necessary - and I don't say that in hindsight.

I'll wager that, when the DOS Visa Statistics are published (hopefully in January), EB3-ROW will once again fall far short of their notional allocation.
08-13-2013, 02:20 PM
qesehmk

we will use this thread only so that people who bookmark don't have to change. But we will move all the posts prior to Sep 2013 to an archived thread for 2013.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jagan01

So where is the new page for FY2014 predictions ?

Gurus,
Please update your predictions for FY2014. Assuming that the same downtrend in EB1I and EB2WW continues would it be appropriate to think that we move on to Feb 2009 by the end of next fiscal year.
08-13-2013, 02:22 PM
eb207232008

copy/paste in September bulletin from August:))
"It is expected that such movement will generate a very significant amount of new India demand during the coming months."
08-13-2013, 02:25 PM
helooo

It was typo.

Quote:

Originally Posted by civilengineer

Missed by 4 days (June 19). I did not have high hopes to start with, so not too disappointed. I am glad that my prediction that I won't be current came true. :D
Good to know there is still a sliver of hope for future bulletins this year, albeit minimal.
One thing I did not get is why helooo thinks he missed by a day. His profile says his date is May 16. Is that a typo? Is he actually June 16?

It was typo in profile Bro.Just fixed it.Hope they move little more next month.
08-13-2013, 02:26 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Not reducing - he says - there was less than expected demand in last 2 months. IMHO that could be just white noise. As per next year ... think about it ... there won't be 18K FB visas.. so that cuts a lot of movement right there. Everything else being equal - next year could be extremely tight i.e. 6 months of less movement. Don't mean to scare ... but just saying that at this moment it's all hazy. We will know more as we understand the exact level of SOFAD this year and consumption of EB1 and EB2ROw.

Q, Totally agree with you.

Until we get more information, my sense is that the majority of extra numbers came from EB1, who may only use 31-32k. In that respect CO is correct, there has been a noticeable reduction in approvals for EB1 and EB2-WW recently.

My worry is that the latest Inventory for EB1 doesn't really speak of reduced demand - therefore the reduction may be more USCIS processing driven as it has been previously. EB2-WW don't lack for cases to approve either.

Congratulations to all those Current for September! Bon Chance!
08-13-2013, 02:26 PM
Pedro Gonzales

Quote:

Originally Posted by mstanfield

Whoa !! super thrilled by the movement. The analysis on this forum is really exemplary. My PD is june 10th, 2008. How likely is that they will clear the backlog all the way through june 15th, 2008?

A few comments:
1) Visa numbers will almost certainly run out before everybody pre June 15, 2008 gets their GCs in hand.
2) However, given the length of time and analysis the DoS appears to have spent prior to getting this bulletin out, they may have made a pretty accurate movement so the folks missing out will be minimal
3) On the whole, the USCIS appears to be approving applications based on PDs, so the ones that miss out are likely to be closer to the June 15, 2008 date.
4) EB3 to EB2 Porting demand in FY2014 will be lower than FY2013 because the bulk of the pent up demand has already manifested itself in 2013, new organic porting demand will generate at a slower pace, hence there won't be as much of an urgency to retrogress EB2 dates in Oct/Nov as there was last year. Less relevant, if there is an immediate retrogression, it won't be as severe as it was last year (2004), I'd expect it to go no further back than Jul 2007.
5) My personal opinion lines up with Qs that there is a reasonable probability that the retrogression won't be immediate and may not hit for a couple of months, allowing those folks that miss out pre-Sep 30, 2013 to get their GCs using the FY2014 monthly quota for Oct and Nov, and even some quarterly spill over in December.

Bottom line, I think anyone that isn't subject to an RFE or isn't applying for their I485 now will get their GC in September, and those others will get theirs in October or November.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

If you are asking for my guess - my guess is he WILL retrogress Dec onwards. He will spare Oct and perhaps Nov too.
08-13-2013, 02:28 PM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

CO pretty much says so himself.

He previously said (in the July VB)

Even then, he was admitting that the later movement was unlikely to translate into demand, since 5 months would be in the new FY.

Had he moved the Dates earlier and then moved them further (as I was surprised he didn't - see my previous posts), then he would not be in a position of having so little demand for ROW/C/M that he would feel the need to move EB3-I forward by 8 months.

That covers as many as 6.9k AOS visas according to the latest USCIS Inventory. We all know that is not a correct figure, since a large number of porters need to be removed from that gross figure. However, it represents at least a year's extra movement due to CO's improper movement of other Countries within EB3 (whether deliberate or not).

Since I forecast that would be the result of the late movement and the failure to keep moving dates forward, I feel perfectly justified in complaining about it, since it was a very obvious danger.

He should have moved the dates earlier and further, then retrogressed towards the end of the year if necessary - and I don't say that in hindsight.

I'll wager that, when the DOS Visa Statistics are published (hopefully in January), EB3-ROW will once again fall far short of their notional allocation.

I agree with you Spec. This was writing on the wall. CO should have moved dates earlier. For all we know, their might be very little demand left for EB3-ROW. May be the category will go current.

EB3-P also moved from 22 Oct 2006 to 01 Dec 2006.
08-13-2013, 02:29 PM
NOV2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

we will use this thread only so that people who bookmark don't have to change. But we will move all the posts prior to Sep 2013 to an archived thread for 2013.

Q,

I was looking at first page, and what you predicted was more accurate. Congrats!!!! and you are awesome, your help and analysis has been of great help to lot of people like me who have bee waiting to see better life.
Congratulations to all who became current with today's bulletin.
I would like to Thank Spec/ and other Guru's for answering everyone's questions on this forum. I hope to see dates moving forward from next VB and more and more folks rolling.
08-13-2013, 02:30 PM
indianguy

gurus.. long time lurker on the forums - had to register and thank you for your predictions. just amazing work.

i'm current (again) - but a recipient of mass rfe - for which my wonderful company provided attorney is still plodding through the response. Wondering if the response to the rfe reaches uscis by Sep 1st, does it still leave me with a chance to get greened? or am i screwed?

thanks!!
08-13-2013, 02:30 PM
qesehmk

Everything - except the EB3 category allocation - so approx 14K.

The reason is - one way shape or form they come from EB4->eB5->EB1->EB2.

The only caveat is that EB2ROW might have still used its full limit but failed to utilize the revised limit due to FB spillover. But I would tend to think that EB2I received at least 11K of the 18K.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Q, how many of those 18K visas did EB2-I receive directly? Do we have an educated guess already?
08-13-2013, 02:35 PM
pdmay2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

There will be close to 10K leftover before 1 Jan 2009 + 15K from 2009...this is in addition to porting. It is possible to clear this out if we get spillovers similar to 2011 (that was one exceptional year). However I think that the reduced demand is artificial and achieved by increasing processing times in EB1 and EB2-ROW. EB2-I is moving at the pace of 7 months each FY (total movement = 14 months between FY 2011 and 2013) and to clear 2009, it would require a movement of 18 months. That's very unlikely.

Thanks for putting this equation. Now I get the point. Any chance of getting FB spillover next year?
08-13-2013, 02:35 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

I agree with you Spec. This was writing on the wall. CO should have moved dates earlier. For all we know, their might be very little demand left for EB3-ROW. May be the category will go current.

EB3-P also moved from 22 Oct 2006 to 01 Dec 2006.

kd,

I'm glad someone understands.

I think the EB3-P movement was purely to bring Philippines up to the 7% overall total of 11.1k within EB.

Continuing EB3-P demand is going to make it very difficult for them to not to retrogress further and further away from all other Countries than India in EB3.

I'm looking forward to seeing the Demand Data (if it ever gets published) figures for EB3-WW as they build up. I suspect after 2008, most people (for all Countries) have deserted EB3 and forward movement can be quite rapid in the future.
08-13-2013, 02:35 PM
Vkkpnm

Congrats everyone for this big jump. A quick question to all gurus: Does this affect the final retrogressed date? Where would be the priority date at the end of Dec 13?
08-13-2013, 02:37 PM
Jagan01

Spec, Q, and other Gurus,

Any idea about what was considered in Aug bulletin and what was considered in Sep bulletin.

We had a discussion earlier where people suspected that FA is only taken into account for Aug bulletin and FD is not taken into account. With the Sep bulletin the use of the words "otherwise unused numbers" and the fact that CO specifically mentions low consumption of EB1, it looks as if FD was only considered in Sep movement.

Basically my Question is to find out in which bulletin and at what time the CO gave the following spillovers to EB2I:
1. FD from EB1, EB4, EB5
2. FA from EB2WW
3. Family based unused visas (also is this available every year ?)
08-13-2013, 02:43 PM
Pedro Gonzales

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

kd,

I'm glad someone understands.

I think the EB3-P movement was purely to bring Philippines up to the 7% overall total of 11.1k within EB.

Continuing EB3-P demand is going to make it very difficult for them to not to retrogress further and further away from all other Countries than India in EB3.

I'm looking forward to seeing the Demand Data (if it ever gets published) figures for EB3-WW as they build up. I suspect after 2008, most people (for all Countries) have deserted EB3 and forward movement can be quite rapid in the future.

Spec, I too completely agree that CO's using executive decisions and processing efficiencies to help ameliorate the EB3I plight at the expense of EB3ROW, but I don't think it's his decision and more likely a memo from the WH. I don't think people like the optics of 10 year waits for EB applicants and if he's trying to find ways to bend the rules to reduce that, more power to him. I would sympathize with someone from EB3ROW when that category retrogresses without him getting his GC, but I also sympathize with the 2003 PD EB3I applicant with a kid that's going to age out this year.
08-13-2013, 02:46 PM
sandyn16

Do we think EB3-I will retrogress in FY 2014?
08-13-2013, 02:56 PM
Jun1308

Lucky me !!! Looks like no one can beat my PD ( Jun 13,2008) this time.

Congrats to all who become current.

Thanks Moderators for your wonderful estimations on this forum.
08-13-2013, 02:58 PM
nishant2200

Congratulations to current folks!
08-13-2013, 03:00 PM
amulchandra

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

Spec, I too completely agree that CO's using executive decisions and processing efficiencies to help ameliorate the EB3I plight at the expense of EB3ROW, but I don't think it's his decision and more likely a memo from the WH. I don't think people like the optics of 10 year waits for EB applicants and if he's trying to find ways to bend the rules to reduce that, more power to him. I would sympathize with someone from EB3ROW when that category retrogresses without him getting his GC, but I also sympathize with the 2003 PD EB3I applicant with a kid that's going to age out this year.

If Eb3 ROW becomes current in the near future can we expect more spill overs to eb3 I?

Thank you

Amul
08-13-2013, 03:08 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by amulchandra

If Eb3 ROW becomes current in the near future can we expect more spill overs to eb3 I?

Thank you

Amul

Amul,

If EB3-ROW became Current, than by law, after all other Countries have reached the 7% limit, spare visas would fall across to the most retrogressed Country in EB3, which is India.

I don't think that is going to happen in the short term, but if EB3 demand has dropped considerably, then it is not an entirely impossible situation in the longer term.
08-13-2013, 03:11 PM
amulchandra

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Amul,

If EB3-ROW became Current, than by law, after all other Countries have reached the 7% limit, spare visas would fall across to the most retrogressed Country in EB3, which is India.

I don't think that is going to happen in the short term, but if EB3 demand has dropped considerably, then it is not an entirely impossible situation in the longer term.

Thank you very much Spectator. At least there is some hope now - my PD being Jul 2006 Eb3 I.
08-13-2013, 03:13 PM
garihc27

Gurus,

I am in a unique situation. Long story short, my PD is 05/2008 so my case is current. However my PERM is still to be approved. After years of audits and appeals, recently BALCA ruled in my favor. I am waiting on DOL now to approve PERM. Do you know if there is a timeline on DOL approval of BALCA cases?
I am hoping that the approval comes in the next month, so I could concurrent file (I-140 & I-485) before the Sept 30th date.

Thanks!
08-13-2013, 03:15 PM
Spectator

I'm going to guess that as a result of the COD of 15JUN08 in the September VB, EB2-I will receive around 20-21k approvals in FY2013, taking into account some cases will be left behind.

That's a pretty good result.
08-13-2013, 03:20 PM
eb2visa

Can we expect the same next year, any guess. I think its time to start new number crunch :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I'm going to guess that as a result of the COD of 15JUN08 in the September VB, EB2-I will receive around 20-21k approvals in FY2013, taking into account some cases will be left behind.

That's a pretty good result.
08-13-2013, 03:21 PM
indianguy

Quote:

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I don't understand why you are letting your attorney handle it. I485 is *your own* application. Respond to the RFE on your own. It's really not that hard.

long story short..we got acquired recently and the new employer wanted their attorney to handle the case to "dot the i's and cross the t's" before giving the EVL :(
i've been prodding the attorney - supposed to be one of the biggest if not the biggest (you would know who I mean), and its slow going... still hoping to get them to respond by 1st sep. Does that leave me with a fighting chance at all to be greened? (or, is it pretty much moot right now that i'd have to sit this one out)? Not sure how the RFE responses are handled by USCIS when PD is current at the time of response.
08-13-2013, 03:25 PM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I'm going to guess that as a result of the COD of 15JUN08 in the September VB, EB2-I will receive around 20-21k approvals in FY2013, taking into account some cases will be left behind.

That's a pretty good result.

Spec, I expected the residual demand to be 33K for EB2-IC. Does that number jive with your calculations? I thought the EB2-I number would be 16K or so. I guess I forgot to add porting which may be another 5K?

Anyways, calculations are not my forte.
08-13-2013, 03:26 PM
chewbaca

Glad the dates are current. Has been a long journey and qesehmk made it a more informative and less painful...Special thanks to Q, Spec, Matt, Indiani for keeping people like me informed and less in the dark

- My PD is Jan 10 2008 but I have not yet filed for i-485. Do you think there will be enough time to get the actual card instead of just getting the EAD/AP within the next few months?
08-13-2013, 03:29 PM
june2008-eb2

Missed by 9 days and yet to file 485

Gurus, I am bit bummed, I was hoping against hope to file I-485 this month and it feels really bad to be so close yet so far. Is there any hope in the next few months? There are quite a few life decisions which are pending on this and I do not want to change jobs now only to miss the window again (already missed once in 2011 as I was re-doing PERM). Would really appreciate any guidance here.
08-13-2013, 03:31 PM
username

Quote:

Originally Posted by garihc27

Gurus,

I am in a unique situation. Long story short, my PD is 05/2008 so my case is current. However my PERM is still to be approved. After years of audits and appeals, recently BALCA ruled in my favor. I am waiting on DOL now to approve PERM. Do you know if there is a timeline on DOL approval of BALCA cases?
I am hoping that the approval comes in the next month, so I could concurrent file (I-140 & I-485) before the Sept 30th date.

Thanks!

i doubt anybody on the forum could answer your question. You can try and see if Senator and Congressman can help you out. Good Luck!!!
08-13-2013, 03:32 PM
civilengineer

garihc27: Most likely no one knows the answer to your question (I certainly don't). That's probably why you are not getting a response.
08-13-2013, 03:33 PM
Jagan01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I'm going to guess that as a result of the COD of 15JUN08 in the September VB, EB2-I will receive around 20-21k approvals in FY2013, taking into account some cases will be left behind.

That's a pretty good result.

Spec, Q, and other Gurus,

Any idea about what was considered in Aug bulletin and what was considered in Sep bulletin.

We had a discussion earlier where people suspected that FA is only taken into account for Aug bulletin and FD is not taken into account. With the Sep bulletin the use of the words "otherwise unused numbers" and the fact that CO specifically mentions low consumption of EB1, it looks as if FD was only considered in Sep movement.

Basically my Question is to find out in which bulletin and at what time the CO gave the following spillovers to EB2I:
1. FD from EB1, EB4, EB5
2. FA from EB2WW
3. Family based unused visas (also is this available every year ?)
08-13-2013, 03:36 PM
willywonka

Congratulations to all those who will be current next month.
I am very happy for you guys.

Q, I didn't really think June 2008 would even be remotely possible. You stuck with your prediction even in light of several indicators to the contrary. Your intuition/gut perfectly compliments the raw and solid calculations from Spec, Matt, etc. If this is indeed the last full fledged prediction from you, I have to say... Way to Go Q!!! And thank you for everything. I am going to stick around this forum at least until I get my GC and I will surely miss you.

Gurus, when the dust from this FY settles and when we get to look at the pending inventory early next year, I am inclined to think that there would be a total backlog of 9-10k eb2i before PD Oct 1 2008. (That includes unresolved porting cases from this FY, unlucky unapproved straight eb2i
cases left over prior to Jun2008, newly filed cases, and the currently known demand between Jun15 and Sep30 2008). Does that make any sense to you at all ? Can you share your opinion please ?
08-13-2013, 03:39 PM
sandyn16

But the spillover is for FY 2013 right. So this means they either have to approve cases until september 2003 else in October move it back? I do hope it moves ahead.
08-13-2013, 03:40 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Spec, I expected the residual demand to be 33K for EB2-IC. Does that number jive with your calculations? I thought the EB2-I number would be 16K or so. I guess I forgot to add porting which may be another 5K?

Anyways, calculations are not my forte.

kd,

You are correct that I am including an allowance for porting.
08-13-2013, 03:41 PM
sandyn16

Quote:

Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I don't think so. All EB3-I cases are pre-adjudicated. EB3-I has received *spillover* from EB3-ROW, hence the date has moved in September. It will move 1-2 weeks per month as usual starting October.

This spillover is for FY 2013 right which means they either process all cases until september 2003 or else in October move it back? I sure hope they keep on moving it ahead
08-13-2013, 03:46 PM
thelongwait

I have been a very passive member but couldn't control myself registering to mention how valuable about Q's and other experts contributions are to/in this forum to the immigrant community. Hats off to you! You deserve a standing applause!
Congratulations to everyone who are current.
I missed the boat by 5 days (PD - June 19 2008) but wouldn't sweat much on it since there are few people who didn't have an EAD even with earlier PD than mine.
Hopefully USCIS learns from its mistakes and grants visas in order of PD.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

General Prediction - anybody in EB2IC category who is interested in understanding time to get GC - should keep in mind 2 things:
1. Time to GC is generally 4-5 years since your PD.
2. Time to GC is a step function. i.e. generally more % of approvals come between Jun-Sep every years. Oct-May is generally uneventful for most people. The reason being - that generally USCIS/DOS do NOT do quarterly spillover and hence for EB2IC the monthly quota is paltry and very few people can get their GC in that quota. The major dates movement happens at the end of USCIS year i.e. between Jun-Sep every year.

2013 Prediction (Updated based on DOS data) - Updated 11 Jul 03

Summary Prediction - EB2IC backlog will be cleared between Feb-July 2008 by Sep 2013 based on my personal calculations.

Reasoning

Headwinds to EB2IC
1. EB5 - Looks like EB5 will yield little to none SOFAD. There is strong demand in EB5 both in 485 as well as CP cases. (9k YTD usage already confirmed)
2. EB2ROW - EB2ROW most likely is not going to yield any extra visas to EB2IC. EB2ROW has quite strong demand (50% more compared to last year). Its possible that ROW will consume between 1-5K more than its usual quota. (assuming 5K porting)
3. EB4 - Has strong demand and will probably yield 3K to EB1.
4. EB1 - Has strong demand and will yield about 5K to EB1.

Tailwinds to EB2IC
1. The only thing working for EB2IC is the 18K extra family visas. Of them EB2IC will receive 9K since EB3 and EB5 are going to require all the extra visas they get.

Thus EB2IC should expect to receive overall 9K (FB) +3K (EB4) +5K (EB1) +6K (Quota) - 5K (ROW overage) = 18K visas.

That should be sufficient to clear EB2IC backlog upto May 2008.

The upside to the May 2008 forecast could be upto Jul 2008 and the downside is Feb 2008. The risk or opportunity both lie in EB2ROW this year. The other categories don't have much variables. Any hopes of dates moving into 2009 in a sustainable manner this year are zero if any. The dates could still move into 2009 if CO wants to build any inventory. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Those interested in playing these scenarios themselves can use the paid service at www.whereismygc.com especially if you want to build your own forecast etc. Good luck.

Visa Bulletin Commentary

CO says in VB that the movement is within numbers available in EB2. To me that is indication of FD numbers are yet to come. And hence I would expect movement of 3-6 months more in September.

Any movement beyond Jul 2008 will be unsustainable and we should expect a retrogression AFTER nov 2013.

Announcement for FY 2014
FY 2014 (i.e. Oct 2013 onwards) I am going to stop contributing to predictions here. With whereismygc tool now there is no real need for me to spend time doing calculations manually. Besides it is a conflict of interest to do both.

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