EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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12-09-2011, 02:45 PM
natvyas

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

The CO has been true to his word that he gave on 26th October. He said dates would move to atleast 1 MAr 08 and the COD moved to 15th Mar.....he had mentioned that there will be movement in Jan and Feb bulletin and that has also come true as far as Jan VB is concerned....

In the VB he says there isnt enough demand....maybe he is saying the truth....

i personally dont buy the theory that he is moving the dates under some influence of HR3012. I think he knows better.....

to build a pipeline....yes that's a good enough reason....and he has been open about it.....

i think we are guilty of trying to second guess him everytime he says something......

by the way I'm current PD 24 Mar 08....yahooooooooooooooooooooooo
12-09-2011, 02:49 PM
yesman

Yay!

Congrats to everyone that became current today! Here I was wondering if CO will move the dates by 1 month (my PD is Apr 3 2008) and he moves it by 10! Thanks a lot to everyone who is a part of this forum for creating and participating, to analyze and discuss this immigration process which is so murky and complicated.
12-09-2011, 03:05 PM
chagas

@ragx08 ---- H1B cap reached on november 22nd for FY 2012.....not sure how your spouse can change the status from H4 to H1 before the next fiscal year quota kiks in (April 2012)
12-09-2011, 03:05 PM
iamsam

Hello polapragada
Can you check your PM please. I need your help urgently.
Thanks

Quote:

Originally Posted by polapragada

I believe I can give info to some extend..I wnt to through a partial path of the situation

1. Company C - Should file a I-140 as successor in interest for the I-140 of Company A. As long as it is a official merger (no matter full assets or partial assets)

2. No need to file new labor. Unless Company C. Don't want to offer same position with specified salary in future.

3. If the I-140 approved more than 6 months ago .. Yes that PD can be re captured Company C or any new Company X

4. Remember if merger A+B or B+C is not proper or official you cannot file I-140 as successor in interest. May need to go thru Labor process again but should be able to retain PD

5. Last but least...go and slap Company B owners with full forcess:D
12-09-2011, 03:07 PM
ragx08

Quote:

Originally Posted by chagas

@ragx08 ---- H1B cap reached on november 22nd for FY 2012.....not sure how your spouse can change the status from H4 to H1 before the next fiscal year quota kiks in (April 2012)

She was on H1B before - I guess that makes a difference.
12-09-2011, 03:09 PM
natvyas

Quote:

Originally Posted by chagas

@ragx08 ---- H1B cap reached on november 22nd for FY 2012.....not sure how your spouse can change the status from H4 to H1 before the next fiscal year quota kiks in (April 2012)

if one works for a non-profit organization then he/she can apply for H1 anytime of the year and subsequently start working anytime of the year....there isnt a cap on H1B for non-profit organizations..
12-09-2011, 03:14 PM
ragx08

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

if one works for a non-profit organization then he/she can apply for H1 anytime of the year and subsequently start working anytime of the year....there isnt a cap on H1B for non-profit organizations..

I did not know that - Since the last 2+years, she was actually working for a non-profit organization (taking care of their SQL needs - dev/maintenance) for free. It is more of a voluntary service - so I guess no work permit needed.
12-09-2011, 03:17 PM
chagas

Quote:

Originally Posted by ragx08

She was on H1B before - I guess that makes a difference.

Ok. So basically it is from H1 - H4 - H1 (after H1 stamping) . I am still unsure if she can change the status unless it's a non-profir orog. as natvyas pointed out. Either way best of luck !!!
12-09-2011, 03:21 PM
mrhyderabad

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

If CO sticks to his "and beyond" comment in the VB, you should be current in the next month. However, nobody knows CO's thought process so I would say a 50-50 chance. Maybe a little better than that.

Thank you very. I hope you are right about CO sticking to his comment for coming bulletins. It is been more than 5 years that I travelled to India.
12-09-2011, 03:22 PM
ragx08

Quote:

Originally Posted by chagas

Ok. So basically it is from H1 - H4 - H1 (after H1 stamping) . I am still unsure if she can change the status unless it's a non-profir orog. as natvyas pointed out. Either way best of luck !!!

Frankly - I'll be happy if she does not take up this job - as it requires her to move to a different state! In any case I'm not very concerned abt that. If it works out - good! If not - better!!! :-)
12-09-2011, 03:25 PM
natvyas

Quote:

Originally Posted by ragx08

Frankly - I'll be happy if she does not take up this job - as it requires her to move to a different state! In any case I'm not very concerned abt that. If it works out - good! If not - better!!! :-)

I hope ur wifey isnt reading this post of yours....nahi to aaj dinner nahi milega
12-09-2011, 03:27 PM
ramchand

@ragx08: Can you please check your pm when possible? I probably have a similar situation as your wife and would appreciate some details :)
12-09-2011, 03:28 PM
enigma

Thanks, Q. It's comforting to know that others have been through the 485 stage on F1. Would you suggest changing my wife's status from F1 to H4, after applying for 485 and getting the EAD cards? (since she would be able to continue her on-campus work without the need for F1 at that point). I am assuming here that if the dates do move past my PD they will eventually retrogress and I would be stuck at the EAD stage for the next year or so.

PS - Please let me know if I should move this conversation to a different thread and I will be happy to do so.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

my wife was on f1 when we filed our 485.
12-09-2011, 03:29 PM
ragx08

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

I hope ur wifey isnt reading this post of yours....nahi to aaj dinner nahi milega

No problem - can live on 'liquid" diet, if needed!!!! Anyways, today's news calls for some celebrations after all!!!
12-09-2011, 03:40 PM
ragx08

Quote:

Originally Posted by ramchand

@ragx08: Can you please check your pm when possible? I probably have a similar situation as your wife and would appreciate some details :)

Ramchand, check you pm for the reply.
12-09-2011, 03:43 PM
mr53123

Regd filing 485 - J1 Dependent
Hi All ,
Congrats to all those who are current. I am Dec 2008, so I am current as well.

However, I have a small problem. My spouse is currently on H4. She was on a J1 Visa way back in 2004, and on her IAP 66, it is written that she is subject to the 2 year HRR. It was a self funded 1 month trip.

She served 18 months before coming back on F1, and if you include vacations, thats another two months.
So in all she has served 20/24 months. She is 4 months short. If we apply for 485 without a waiver will she be rejected?
Is it better to just wait until we get the waiver and apply? I just started the waiver process, so thats another 8-9 months I suppose.
Thanks a lot.
12-09-2011, 03:55 PM
qesehmk

i am quite sure that my wife had a dual status F1/AOS which then changed to H4/AOS.

Regarding privacy - if you want to keep it private pls feel free to pm me. Otherwise i am fine discussing here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by enigma

Thanks, Q. It's comforting to know that others have been through the 485 stage on F1. Would you suggest changing my wife's status from F1 to H4, after applying for 485 and getting the EAD cards? (since she would be able to continue her on-campus work without the need for F1 at that point). I am assuming here that if the dates do move past my PD they will eventually retrogress and I would be stuck at the EAD stage for the next year or so.

PS - Please let me know if I should move this conversation to a different thread and I will be happy to do so.
12-09-2011, 04:11 PM
enigma

Thanks again for your prompt response Q. As for privacy/PMs, I will keep that in mind if I have any additional specific questions on this matter.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

i am quite sure that my wife had a dual status F1/AOS which then changed to H4/AOS.

Regarding privacy - if you want to keep it private pls feel free to pm me. Otherwise i am fine discussing here.
12-09-2011, 04:18 PM
ontheedge

Quote:

Originally Posted by ragx08

She was on H1B before - I guess that makes a difference.

yes, if she was on H1B before and did not exhaust her 6 years..her application wont be counted against the cap.
12-09-2011, 04:19 PM
makmohan

Friends,

Cannot believe I am current in this VB! Congrats to everyone who is current. I also want to thank everyone esp. Q for setting up this blog. It has been a strong support to help me stay on track.

A very basic question to have a good understanding of timelines:
Am I correct when I say:
- We get remaining december to work and prepare all the documented?
- We start filing from Jan-2012 and all 485 docs must reach USCIS before last working day of Jan?

Thanks,
M
12-09-2011, 04:25 PM
imdeng

Yup. Correct on both. You may have more time than end of Jan if PD does not retrogress. However, of course, it is advisable to send your docs to reach as soon as possible in Jan 2012.

Quote:

Originally Posted by makmohan

Am I correct when I say:
- We get remaining december to work and prepare all the documented?
- We start filing from Jan-2012 and all 485 docs must reach USCIS before last working day of Jan?
12-09-2011, 04:28 PM
soggadu

CO did a CHAMAKKK CHALOOO again!!!!...Wow congratulations to everyone and i wish all of us get GC's soon...
12-09-2011, 04:36 PM
imdeng

Prediction: We are going to see a flood of 2009 PD folks registering and starting to post here. Well - may be not - there aren't too many people with 2009 PD! Post-485 thread will probably blow up through the holiday season.
12-09-2011, 04:41 PM
imdeng

** is slipping up. I replied to someone's question about 485 documentation asking them to check the post-485 thread in Q's Blog. It has been several hours and it has not yet been deleted.

PS> With this I reach 200 posts. Tendulkar got 200, Sehwag crossed 200 and I reach 200 today - same thing on level of achievement I think :-)
12-09-2011, 04:51 PM
kd2008

Teddy, Q, Spec, others, please let me know what you think of this:

EB1 & EB2ROW has quite a bit of backlog from last year. EB1 & EB2ROW approvals are picking up. Since USCIS operates on FIFO wrt I-485 and goes by the filing date, EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are more likely in next few months. So it may happen that EB2IC demand takes a long time to show up and also the number of filings are low. So we may see quite a progression of dates but in the end see a small SOFAD and severe retrogression. HR 3012 could change that but lets just use the law that is in force now for our discussion.

This may be bittersweet or rather, sweetbitter!

I just hope that a lot of folks waiting to file I-485 get to do so soon!
12-09-2011, 04:52 PM
longgcque

Q I sent you a PM. Please respond when you have a moment. Thanks

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

i am quite sure that my wife had a dual status F1/AOS which then changed to H4/AOS.

Regarding privacy - if you want to keep it private pls feel free to pm me. Otherwise i am fine discussing here.
12-09-2011, 04:57 PM
fedupwithgc

Quote:

Originally Posted by imdeng

Prediction: We are going to see a flood of 2009 PD folks registering and starting to post here. Well - may be not - there aren't too many people with 2009 PD! Post-485 thread will probably blow up through the holiday season.

DOL made a statement that most of the people who applied for PERM in 2008 already had approved PERM on file (EB3->EB2 porting) and that may be the case for low turnout of applications in Nov and significant movement in Jan..

Just my 2 Cents ....
12-09-2011, 05:03 PM
imdeng

We don't know the extent of data sharing between USCIS and DOS. From the VB, it looks like USCIS has reported on "the rate of new filings" - this seems like the filings received figure and not filings processed or approved. If that is the case then the current movement is directly because of low demand in EB2IC and not because of the demand not showing up because of backlog in EB1/EB2ROW.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

EB1 & EB2ROW has quite a bit of backlog from last year. EB1 & EB2ROW approvals are picking up. Since USCIS operates on FIFO wrt I-485 and goes by the filing date, EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are more likely in next few months. So it may happen that EB2IC demand takes a long time to show up and also the number of filings are low. So we may see quite a progression of dates but in the end see a small SOFAD and severe retrogression.
12-09-2011, 05:05 PM
imdeng

I have not come across any statement from DoL in this regard. Could you point me towards a link for the same? This would surely explain the low PERM/485 ratio, if true.

Quote:

Originally Posted by fedupwithgc

DOL made a statement that most of the people who applied for PERM in 2008 already had approved PERM on file (EB3->EB2 porting) and that may be the case for low turnout of applications in Nov and significant movement in Jan..

Just my 2 Cents ....
12-09-2011, 05:05 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

That is so true. So far all Gurus have been pretty much up to the mark in making calculated predictions. We are now in the zone of an unknown demand where CO is making huge movements with whatever data he has on his hand to generate demand. It does not mean everyone till December 31st, 2008 will get GCs. Gurus don't have a crystal ball and whatever data they have is limited. No one including Mr. CO himself, accurately knows what the demand destruction is, what is the exact percentage of porting, what is the exact level of duplicate PERM filings. Obviously there will be some predictions which will go wrong when it comes to visa bulletin movements. But as far as getting the GC in hand is concerned, predictions of Gurus are hitting bullseye more than 90 percent of time. Moreover, this is a blog to bring clarity to GC process. This is not a game or a competition for making predictions. I hope those ungrateful folks who are bashing Q, Spec, Veni, Teddy, Nishant etc. can understand this. Keep up the good work folks. I want you to know that your work is highly appreciated.

Dr.Jonty,
Thank you
12-09-2011, 05:09 PM
dreamer

I-94 Question

I was just going through my Documents, just noticed something with my I-94
I got my I-94 till Feb 2013 on my old passport (valid till Feb 2011), Visa was valid till Sep 2011. This didn't made sense to me.
I have applied for New passport and got it in Dec 2010
I have renewed & got approval of my new H1 till Sept 2014 with new I94 attached along with I-797

My question is
1. Looks like immigration officer gave I94 till Feb 2013 instead Feb 2011 (Passport expiry), does it affect me in any way during my 485 process?
2. I am current as of Jan 2011, which I94 will play now?
3. What ever immigration officer puts in I94 is that final even if its date which doesn't makes sense?

I was just looking at it and thought of getting your input on this, your help/input is greatly appreciated
12-09-2011, 05:12 PM
geterdone

congrats to all who r current!

if my wife is on f-1 and when we apply for ead, how does that work? are there any problems for f-1 applicants?
12-09-2011, 05:23 PM
enigma

geterdone,

My situation is similar to yours. I posed a similar question in this thread earlier today and Q responded. You can search for my posts and should be able to find some info in this regard.

Quote:

Originally Posted by geterdone

congrats to all who r current!

if my wife is on f-1 and when we apply for ead, how does that work? are there any problems for f-1 applicants?
12-09-2011, 05:29 PM
kd2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Teddy, Q, Spec, others, please let me know what you think of this:

EB1 & EB2ROW has quite a bit of backlog from last year. EB1 & EB2ROW approvals are picking up. Since USCIS operates on FIFO wrt I-485 and goes by the filing date, EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are more likely in next few months. So it may happen that EB2IC demand takes a long time to show up and also the number of filings are low. So we may see quite a progression of dates but in the end see a small SOFAD and severe retrogression. HR 3012 could change that but lets just use the law that is in force now for our discussion.

This may be bittersweet or rather, sweetbitter!

I just hope that a lot of folks waiting to file I-485 get to do so soon!

Any takers?
12-09-2011, 05:33 PM
codesmith

Thanks

Hi Q, Nistant, Teddy, Spec, Veni, Kanmani and others.
It's a great day.. I can't believe I'm current ... it was never expected.
I was great advocate of numbers and calculations that I learnt here from you guys and in my wildest dream also I could not have believed date moving 9+ months.
With limited transparency on the numbers and process- this forum has always provided so -so much, many "waiters" like me find this forum useful and it stands way apart from the others.
I once again like to thank you guys for the help you've been offering.

qesehmk.org zindabbad !! ( Long live qesehmk.org ) !!
Jai ho Q bhai ki :) :o
12-09-2011, 05:33 PM
la_2002_ch

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Dr.Jonty,
Thank you

I have been more of a silent visitor to this site with very few inputs. But I must say that all the GURUS (Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni) have been very helpful and very accurate in their estimates and predictions. As Dr. Jonty says, they dont have a crystal ball, but still they took the risk in this most un-predictable scenario (limited resources and Mr. CO's mood). Thanks to all of you. I started following Q's thread on the *** and then over here.
12-09-2011, 05:34 PM
Pundit Arjun

Good luck to all who are current.

I agree with you KD. Just from my gut feel -imdeng, other late 2009ers and I will be able to file before Jan 2013.
12-09-2011, 05:45 PM
h1bguy

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2011/...ement-in-fb2a/

Even Capital immigration is predicting that there could be a significant forward movement in Feb .No wonder even If it moves until end of 2009 .

My pd is Apr 07 2009 .
12-09-2011, 05:52 PM
qesehmk

KD i am not sure i understood your question correctly. Eb1 EB2ROW "ALWAYS" take precendence over EB2IC. So yes they will have to be processed before EB2IC gets any extra visas. As per COs rationale behind moving dates - it is clear that he doesn't have a consistent rationale. If we he were to look at his own demand data ... he had more than enough left at the end of sep 2011 from 7% quota perspective. So he didn't need to move the date by a single month. Now he has moved it even beyond any possible SOFAD this year. So clearly he is using his discretion in moving the dates. So i wouldn't try to find any "legal" rationale or basis to his actions. He has to give us some cool-aid in each VB and we are drinking it. As long as the party goes on lets enjoy and file 485. As he himself said - someday it will have to come to end. Makes sense?

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Any takers?
12-09-2011, 06:05 PM
jss1234

THANK YOU!!

First of all congratulations to everyone of you who is current today. I still can't believe that I am current. I am so happy.

Thank you to Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy and others for there hard work. Q this blog rocks!! This is the only blog that gives me hope.

Thank you so much!!

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