Hi VeniQuote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Does the processing time for 485 means it is taking 5 months or 6 months depending on the center for new applications(PWMB) or is it for the pre adjudicated cases?
Thanks
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Hi VeniQuote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Does the processing time for 485 means it is taking 5 months or 6 months depending on the center for new applications(PWMB) or is it for the pre adjudicated cases?
Thanks
ifaith,Quote:
Originally Posted by ifaith
It is for the new applications including EB1 and EB2ROW.
Thanks for the information, veni.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Assuming that USCIS has processed everyone till Aug 2007, as USCIS does not have any information about future 485 demand (as no one from IC filed 485 and no one is pre-adjudicated). Will they be making dates current then or there is something I am missing?
- mahmohan
makmohan,Quote:
Originally Posted by makmohan
This was extensively discussed here before. Unlike in 2007 USCIS/DOS are coordinating together in setting monthly cutoff dates now, and also they have more visibility in to the data and expected demand.So we are believing that they will move EB2IC dates in controlled fashing, moving forward, rather than making cureent. But you will never now!
I found a post on the Chinese immigration website. I think it is an interesting post. If you guys think it's not good to post it here. Please remove. I just want to share this information with you guys. It has a strong indication of future PD movement.
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31336477.html
In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
and PD movement.
I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
several months.
I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
online.
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx...bCategoryId=64
In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.
At that time FB4 Phillipine VB date was 12/7/1987. He/she asked an attorney
online and this attorney said that he/she may have to wait for years to get
current. The attorney said it was surprising to know NVC sent fee notice so
early because he/she thought this case would not be current for years.
This attorney said: "In the past, the NVC would typically send out the
paperwork a few months before the priority date is current— not years
before, as they are apparently doing now."
In August 2010, the VB was released and Phillipine FB4 PD moved from 1987 to
1//1/1990!
NVC fee notice is definitely connected to the future VB movement. NVC will
not send out these notices if they don't think these cases can be current in
several months!
qblogfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Good info, thanks for posting.
Thanks for sharing .... No worries with quoting the source. That's the way to do it.
It is high time EB2I is made current so that people can start filing. (Realistically 1 Yr movement though is more probable).
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the April figures.
http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm
veni, I see. Got it. Thanks very much. It just adds more uncertainty even to be able to file EAD. If they go in controlled manner, my PD being April 08, the real predictable relief will come in or after July 2012. But we never know!
Thanks for your kind understanding and support.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for your kind words. I am glad you liked this post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
1987??Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
There are times when I crib and fret about my PD moving slow.. someone has been waiting for over 2 decades.. makes me feel lucky and good about where I am at..
Yes, I agree. At the same time, I feel sad for this family. EB2-C&I should feel lucky.
FB4 is the slowest category in family based green card. I checked the visa bullitens to verify this post. The PD of PH FB4 was in 1987 in May 2010 VB and it moved to 1/1/1991. It is accurate. For the phillipines they were surprised to receive NVC notice in May 2010, but the PD did move into 1991 in September 2010. It is very possbiel DOS notified NVC the PD movement in advance. I believe they already have a preliminery list of dates. At the same time, these dates are the most conservative dates they determined. In another word, CO's office is confident that the PD will move to at least those dates on their list. Just my two cents.
May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)
Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)
Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to use visa number, newly submitted case takes 3-4 months to become demand)
Dec 2010-1/1/1988 (they got enough cases ready for approval, then retrogress)
July 2011-5/15/1988
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
It seems clear, or is at least increasingly unlikely, that DOS are not going to publish this data.
I wonder if we will see it again this year.
Possibly, it is a telling omission. DOS can move the dates with no visibility into the process, not that there is much anyway.
Does anyone know the latest PD for which one has received NVC fee notice (from different forums)? Going by the above example in the FB-4 category, the PDs should move to at least the latest PD for which one has received the NVC fee notice in the next few months.
Only one case with PD June 2008 received fee notice. I am not sure whether it's false info. or not.
Several PD April 2008 got fee notice and it's more reliable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
On a slightly unrelated note, the Dates Movement chart in the 1st page shows EB3-Mexico's likely PD to be July'11. I assume it is a typo error, since the current PD for EB3-Mexico is July'05.
A Chinese guy contacted Mr. Co and he replied:
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html
Look at the attachment in English.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
It can only mean that they want to move dates at their own discretion. Generally this would be a bad news ... but in this case I think it bodes well for the retrogressed countries.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Based on CO's input, I think we can see the employment demand numbers in the Aug bulletin (during early July), right?
Well...my PD is Mar, 2008...LOL
recent 2 pages of discussions making me Excited!!!!
Hi Mahmohan,Quote:
Originally Posted by makmohan
DOS is going to make it Current for next 2 bulletins for India & China, they are not going with any demand Data or the data USCIS has. better prepare for 2007 fiasco for EB2 this time.
My priority date is August 2009.
Am I too optimistic in thinking that possibly in 2011 I will be able to apply for i-485 EAD and by 2012 I will get GC?
Please correct me (hopefully I am not horribly optimistic).
Appreciate it...you guys rock!
Osaka,
USCIS/DOS are unpredictable; hence the probability of they making EB2IC categories current is same as they not making them current. Let's hope for the best though.
- makmohan
Yes, based on the email from CO, he will publish the demand data next month.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Yes, I agree.
It's hard to predict their next move. They always give people surprises.
Quote:
Originally Posted by makmohan
"If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "Current"".
That statement is from:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immi...ation%20of.pdf
Now, lets assume that by August, they have cleared current backlog.
PWMBs and 2007 Sep - 2011 I-140s would not be considered documentarily qualified anyway. So purely on their own policies, wouldn't they need to make dates current. Or have I got this completely wrong?
I hope you can be current too. However, it's just some prediction and analysis. We have to watch for CO's next move. There are many GC gurus here and we should listen to what they say.
Quote:
Originally Posted by polapragada
It's possible.
But now we are not sure whether the Spillover can clear all the demand yet.
If the spillover can clean up the demand, I think there is some chance to become current.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
Hi,
Could somebody guide me where to see the attachment for the message in the below link.
http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html
Thanks
http://www.mitbbs.com/article2/EB23/31329095_349.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by mvinayam
I hope that helps :)
It Says:
Demand Data:There were number of pressing issues going on at the time which demanded my attention leading up to the determination of the July dates. The posting of the employment demand is done strictly as a courtesy to the individuals who have an intrerest in that type od data.Had I taken time to update it last week that would have caused a delay in the determination /posting of the July dates. It will be published when the August dates are announced in early July.Further movement will be dependent upon the demand patterns between now and early July,and consultations with USCIS
Thanks Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
i140 completions are almost exactly same as FY2010 (OCT - APR). But the pending application number is increasing month after month, which is not a good news for next year SOFAD!
I think they are going to move the dates until DEC 2007 or early 2008, so that they will have enough processed demand for the coming spill over season. Now a days dos and cis acting very cautiously regarding the date movements. Date movement to early 2008 + pwmb + porting will create enough demand for the next spillover season.Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
And also the spillover will be not that much for 2012 as the eb1 approvals getting diminished, this people will move to eb2 (row) which will eat up some of the spillover. In short there are so many moving variables dos and cis are monitoring going forward.
makmohan,Quote:
Originally Posted by makmohan
Assuming the sources providing NVC fee request e-mails are genuine, then EB2I&C should at least hit April 2008 before bouncing back into 2007.
I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.
Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.
Keep our fingers crossed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I don't mean to dispute or demean anybody. But these guys are simply copying our information and sometimes publishing as their own.
If you look back a few pages we broke info about VB which was shamelessly copied and circulated as their own. Thought you should know this since you are clearly unaware of this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
I think any date beyond Aug1 2007 is pure speculation, moving dates cautiously when you have known demand is entirely different from estimating the future demand and moving the dates.
They can control the date movement only if they have sufficient cases to pre adjudicate and know the exact demand, the rules to build pipeline should technically be as much as they can allow and timing is working out perfect. if they assign all the visa numbers and still some left there will be only 2 possibilites
1. make the date C and accept everyone
2. move the dates according to CP demand and try to give them visa and meanwhile build the inventory based on that date
I don't think DOS/CIS is against anybody and want to stop ppl in line, if there is a chance I believe they will let everyone apply
I have to apologize for this if they used the data from here without listing the reference. I will pass the message to them and ask them to add reference if they want to use any data from Q's forum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That's ok. No apologies required from anybody.
Lets continue to focus on topics that are valuable to readers of this forum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan