EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by EB2-03252009

Spec,

do u think there will be SO from EB2M and EB2P this yr and flow into EB2I?

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That's difficult to answer since there is no reliable information on EB2 Mexico and Philippine approvals.

The numbers on Trackitt are too low to be reliable.

It's possible that EB2-ROW could use any spare numbers, as last FY.

Last year (FY2017), EB2-ROW was retrogressed for the final 2 months of the FY. Trackitt approvals were 592.

In FY2018, EB2-ROW still potentially has the full 12 months of approvals. At the current monthly approval rate on Trackitt, EB2-ROW is capable of reaching the same number of approvals as in FY2017. Currently there are 414, with 4.5 months to go. EB2-ROW need only average 40 approvals per month for the rest of the FY to reach last year's total. Excluding October and May, to date EB2-ROW are currently averaging 50 per month.

Whether Trackitt approvals this year equate to the same number of actual approvals as last year is different question.

Thanks Specs... looks like a close one this year for SOs

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

Spec, isn't it safe to say that most if not all EB2I cases being processed are currently ported cases? Original EB2Is must have gotten GCs. If that is the case, folks with EB3I PDs after July 2007 but have ported to EB2I have not filed AOS in EB3I at all. I am sure there are many such cases even after March 7, 2017. Porting is literally happening every day. It may have slowed down only recently with the rapid EB3I movement, like someone in late 2008 EB3I may now choose to wait it out instead of porting but others like him may have ported AFTER March 7, 2017 and are filing AOS for the first time.

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Any one with an EB2I Perm with a PD of Dec 2008 or earlier has already filed AOS in EB2, whether porter or not. The recent Fast movement in EB3I PD does not change that. So the question of anyone 'waiting it out' does not arise. 'Porting' is a term used to change a category AFTER filing for AOS, not before.

Co expects rapid advances on EB2 and EB3 India and china How much rapid advance can we expect ?

Cyrus tweeted abour latest CO AILA update:

https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/statu...61421864030209

USCIS is not using EB numbers due to delays under the new mandatory interview policy for adjustment applicants. Charlie Oppenheim at DOS said at FBA Immigration conference in Memphis today to expect rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers. Will know more by end of May.

Great news but we need CO to define rapid movement :) I will have my fingers and toes crossed till we hear more.

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

Cyrus tweeted abour latest CO AILA update:

https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/statu...61421864030209

USCIS is not using EB numbers due to delays under the new mandatory interview policy for adjustment applicants. Charlie Oppenheim at DOS said at FBA Immigration conference in Memphis today to expect rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers. Will know more by end of May.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting

Cyrus tweeted abour latest CO AILA update:

https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/statu...61421864030209

USCIS is not using EB numbers due to delays under the new mandatory interview policy for adjustment applicants. Charlie Oppenheim at DOS said at FBA Immigration conference in Memphis today to expect rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers. Will know more by end of May.

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How much overall EB numbers have been used thus far for this FY?

It appears there might be lot of unused EB spilling into backlogged categories mostly towards clearing out long held backlog that do not require interviews

Charlie's PowerPoint presentation

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Charlie's PowerPoint presentation

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Spec: Thanks. All I can read is that compared to last year, they have issued 6668 less EB2 GCs. For EB3 they have issued 1843 more GCs compared to last year. The net difference of 4825 GCs will be added to EB2.

That amounts to about 4 months movement for EB2I. So are we looking at say July/August 2009 for EB2I by the end of this fiscal year?

Although I want to take it to end of 2009, I just want to work with the numbers provided to understand it better.

Spec - Waiting to hear your thoughts on the presentation.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Charlie's PowerPoint presentation

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One important thing I see in the powerpoint is that CO is considering that any unused EB3 numbers "fall down" to EB1. This is different than Spec's interpretation of the relevant law. This would allows for CO to not waste any visas in case there isn't enough EB3 inventory to use all the spillover there.

Now that CO considers the EB spillover process to be a closed loop cycle, he has a pathway to use EB2I inventory that does not need interview - in case the interview process delays approvals for recent EB-ROW filings.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Charlie's PowerPoint presentation

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Charlie's PowerPoint presentation

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Thanks Spec !

This is a welcome news. EB2I should be happy with whatever movement they get this year. I believe this is going to be one time bonanza. Next year onwards the interview process will provide steady demand.

However, if the extra visas really flow through a closed loop as shown in the diagram then it opens up lot of interesting possibilities. Would be interesting to see how this plays out over last quarter of FY 2018.

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Originally Posted by idliman

Spec: Thanks. All I can read is that compared to last year, they have issued 6668 less EB2 GCs. For EB3 they have issued 1843 more GCs compared to last year. The net difference of 4825 GCs will be added to EB2.

That amounts to about 4 months movement for EB2I. So are we looking at say July/August 2009 for EB2I by the end of this fiscal year?

Although I want to take it to end of 2009, I just want to work with the numbers provided to understand it better.

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These are numbers for first 6 months of FY2018(Oct-Mar). So actual available numbers could be different ( and hopefully more).

Dear Friends/Gurus, I am new to this forum. As you guys have much more experience, any best guess
when EB3 India: Priority Date September 2009 might get current ? Kindly provide your best
opinion/guess. Thanks in advance..

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Originally Posted by suninphx

These are numbers for first 6 months of FY2018(Oct-Mar). So actual available numbers could be different ( and hopefully more).

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While this is good news, I am not sure how this is going to help EB3 India. It is too little, too late for EB3 India. I have a feeling that a whole lot of visas will be wasted this year.

Iatiam

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Originally Posted by iatiam

While this is good news, I am not sure how this is going to help EB3 India. It is too little, too late for EB3 India. I have a feeling that a whole lot of visas will be wasted this year.

Iatiam

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Yes.. you could be right in terms of EB3I not getting much help other than able to file the 485 this FY.

Wastage of visa might happen.. if extra visas can't flow back to EB1 and fall down. The diagram in the presentation seem to suggest that the extra visas may flow through closed loop.... but who knows.

It's excellent news that CO believes unused EB3 visas remain available for use by EB1.

I've tried to distill some of the information into a more digestible table form.

First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

All Visa Issuances
Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

The expected usage would be 54% of the annual allocation.
DOS Figures above match previously published data.

Secondly the Field Office approvals. There's no info for EB4 or EB5. Approvals in EB5 by USCIS are negligible anyway.

USCIS AOS Approvals
Oct-Mar -- Service -- Field --- Total -- % Field
EB1 ------- 19,344 -- 6,863 -- 26,207 ---- 26.2%
EB2 ------- 11,595 -- 6,165 -- 17,760 ---- 34.7%
EB3 -------- 7,649 -- 5,200 -- 12,849 ---- 40.5%
EB4 --------------------------- 4,220
EB5 ----------------------------- 942

Total ------------------------ 61,978

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Originally Posted by Spectator

It's excellent news that CO believes unused EB3 visas remain available for use by EB1.

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I don't think a lot of folks here would share your optimism of EB3 visas flow to EB1. They should be used by EB3.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I've tried to distill some of the information into a more digestible table form.

First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 21,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

The expected usage would be 54% of the annual allocation.
DOS Figures above match previously published data.

Secondly the Field Office approvals. There's no info for EB4 or EB5. Approvals in EB5 by USCIS are negligible anyway.

Oct-Mar -- Service -- Field --- Total -- % Field
EB1 ------- 19,344 -- 6,863 -- 26,207 ---- 26.2%
EB2 ------- 11,595 -- 6,165 -- 17,760 ---- 34.7%
EB3 -------- 7,649 -- 5,200 -- 12,849 ---- 40.5%
EB4 --------------------------- 4,220
EB5 ----------------------------- 942

Total ------------------------ 61,978

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The thing I believe CO is saying is the field offices have only approved 5K visas in Q2 per category. I will assume that 90%+ GC's issued in Q2 would have gone to field offices. Now if they go by the same rate or improve a bit there will be plenty of unused visas.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

It's excellent news that CO believes unused EB3 visas remain available for use by EB1.

I've tried to distill some of the information into a more digestible table form.

First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 21,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

The expected usage would be 54% of the annual allocation.
DOS Figures above match previously published data.

Secondly the Field Office approvals. There's no info for EB4 or EB5. Approvals in EB5 by USCIS are negligible anyway.

Oct-Mar -- Service -- Field --- Total -- % Field
EB1 ------- 19,344 -- 6,863 -- 26,207 ---- 26.2%
EB2 ------- 11,595 -- 6,165 -- 17,760 ---- 34.7%
EB3 -------- 7,649 -- 5,200 -- 12,849 ---- 40.5%
EB4 --------------------------- 4,220
EB5 ----------------------------- 942

Total ------------------------ 61,978

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If 54% is already used in first 6 months then why would there be rapid movement? I think in context of June 18 bulletin when dates moved just 4 days .., a months movement would feel like rapid movement 😄

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Originally Posted by rock581

I don't think a lot of folks here would share your optimism of EB3 visas flow to EB1. They should be used by EB3.

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I think you misunderstand me.

Clearly the best use is for EB3 to use the visas in their own category. I took that as read.

However, the alternative might have been that they were lost to EB entirely and used for the FY2019 FB calculation.

No amount of spare EB visas can raise the FB calculation above 226,000 due to the numbers of Immediate Relative approvals.

There could be 140,000 spare EB visas and it would still not allow any extra approvals for FB. The calculation would still result in defaulting to the lowest possible number of 226,000.

Spec, based on the numbers, is it safe to assume EB2-India would move to May-2010?

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Originally Posted by suninphx

If 54% is already used in first 6 months then why would there be rapid movement? I think in context of June 18 bulletin when dates moved just 4 days .., a months movement would feel like rapid movement ��

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From the figures, it's clear that in the first 2 quarters, USCIS had fairly large numbers of cases that were received prior to the cut off date for needing an interview.

For instance, on Trackitt, the % of older NIW case approvals is much higher than normal.

For the second half of the FY, as the number of old cases dwindle, I would guess the % needing a Field Office interview is going to rise extremely quickly.

I published some Trackitt stats in a previous post which shows how this appears to be the case.

I can't see the Field Offices processing potentially double or triple the number they did in the first half of the FY.

I believe that is the crux of CO's worry.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

From the figures, it's clear that in the first 2 quarters, USCIS had fairly large numbers of cases that were received prior to the cut off date for needing an interview.

For instance, on Trackitt, the % of older NIW case approvals is much higher than normal.

For the second half of the FY, as the number of old cases dwindle, I would guess the % needing a Field Office interview is going to rise extremely quickly.

I published some Trackitt stats in a previous post which shows how this appears to be the case.

I can't see the Field Offices processing potentially double or triple the number they did in the first half of the FY.

I believe that is the crux of CO's worry.

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So is it safe to say up to 140000 - 62000 = 78000 visas might be available maximum as spillover minus whatever number that has completed the visa interview.

Iatiam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

From the figures, it's clear that in the first 2 quarters, USCIS had fairly large numbers of cases that were received prior to the cut off date for needing an interview.

For instance, on Trackitt, the % of older NIW case approvals is much higher than normal.

For the second half of the FY, as the number of old cases dwindle, I would guess the % needing a Field Office interview is going to rise extremely quickly.

I published some Trackitt stats in a previous post which shows how this appears to be the case.

I can't see the Field Offices processing potentially double or triple the number they did in the first half of the FY.

I believe that is the crux of CO's worry.

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Yeah - I am also follwing trackitt threads and processing times are too long now. Just to get an interview date one needs to wait for months and wait few more months for approval after interview.

Spec - thanks for quatifying the presentation. Provides baseline to what CO is saying.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by iatiam

So is it safe to say up to 140000 - 62000 = 78000 visas might be available maximum as spillover minus whatever number that has completed the visa interview.

Iatiam

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It would be the other way round.

Around 78k approvals were already made in Q1+Q2 (62k AOS + 16k CP).

That leaves 62k left for Q3 + Q4.

According to the twit, "Rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers". But rapid advances in China can happen only if India EB2/EB3 catches up with China EB2/EB3....right?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

It would be the other way round.

Around 78k approvals were already made in Q1+Q2 (62k AOS + 16k CP).

That leaves 62k left for Q3 + Q4.

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Playing devils advocate, we can count only EB2 and EB3 remaining visas ~42K. (Its fair to assume EB1 and EB5 will be fully utilized even with the slow processing.)

CO seems to have utilized 6K with the recent EB3I movement, lets also assume,optimistically, field offices will process 20K of EB2 and EB3 row applications for the rest of the year. So, there will be at least 16K available GCs. That will take care of EB2I till May 1 2010 and more. There is no way new applications can be approved before end of Sep.

Hope CO sees field offices processing more pessimistically and moves dates even more.

Lets also not forget the other part of the equation, the companies will go into overdrive trying to stop this movement!

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Originally Posted by vedu

According to the twit, "Rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers". But rapid advances in China can happen only if India EB2/EB3 catches up with China EB2/EB3....right?

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Not necessarily.

If the slowdown in Chinese approvals due to Field Office processing is threatening EB2-C and EB3-C each reaching 2,803 visas for the FY, then they could have rapid advancement.

It wouldn't help AOS cases (because new applications wouldn't get approved by USCIS in time), but it would allow DOS to process CP applications which do not suffer the same delays.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Not necessarily.

If the slowdown in Chinese approvals due to Field Office processing is threatening EB2-C and EB3-C each reaching 2,803 visas for the FY, then they could have rapid advancement.

It wouldn't help AOS cases (because new applications wouldn't get approved by USCIS in time), but it would allow DOS to process CP applications which do not suffer the same delays.

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That makes sense! Can't wait to see what the July Visa bulletin has in store for us! Based on the recent RFEs, I am thinking EB2I will move to March 31st, 2009. If they can cover at least upto July, 2009 by the end of year, then it will be great. After that, there is not heavy demand and we can have standard two weeks movement every month next year. All bets are off at this time!

EB2I:

Any guestimate on what could be the Final Action and Filing Dates would be?

I am seeing that there could be 14K SOFAD for EB2I? This should take us to late 2009 or early 2010 with about 5K inventory pending.

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Originally Posted by skpanda

EB2I:

Any guestimate on what could be the Final Action and Filing Dates would be?

I am seeing that there could be 14K SOFAD for EB2I? This should take us to late 2009 or early 2010 with about 5K inventory pending.

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hello friends/experts, any clue when eb3 india priority september 2009 might get current..?

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Originally Posted by rock581

Playing devils advocate, we can count only EB2 and EB3 remaining visas ~42K. (Its fair to assume EB1 and EB5 will be fully utilized even with the slow processing.)

CO seems to have utilized 6K with the recent EB3I movement, lets also assume,optimistically, field offices will process 20K of EB2 and EB3 row applications for the rest of the year. So, there will be at least 16K available GCs. That will take care of EB2I till May 1 2010 and more. There is no way new applications can be approved before end of Sep.

Hope CO sees field offices processing more pessimistically and moves dates even more.

Lets also not forget the other part of the equation, the companies will go into overdrive trying to stop this movement!

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You're not accounting for any CP approvals by DOS in your calculation of available visas in Q3&Q4.

There were 7.5k CP approvals in EB2&EB3 in the first half of the year. If that was repeated for Q3&Q4, then your 16k figure would further reduce to 8.5k.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

You're not accounting for any CP approvals by DOS in your calculation of available visas in Q3&Q4.

There were 7.5k CP approvals in EB2&EB3 in the first half of the year. If that was repeated for Q3&Q4, then your 16k figure would further reduce to 8.5k.

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That's a very good point.

Optimistic Scenario:

So assuming 8.5K spillover in the last three months and based on the latest 485 inventory, the dates should move to around January 2010. I am of course assuming that the EB3I inventory is depleted and that EB1I is not taking away any thing. The number also includes 700 visas to be allocated in the last quarter of 2018.

Realistic Scenario:
If we subtract the EB1I pending inventory number of 3900 and assumes no allocation of last Q numbers, the SO reduces to 8500-3900 = 4600 and dates should still move to June 2009.


Let me know if any thing is missing in this

Iatiam

Provided that a decent spillover is available this year and if the dates move towards end of 2009 or beginning of 2010, and provided from thereon we start moving 2 weeks every month for EB2I, wouldn't CO have to advance the EB2I dates rapidly in the last quarter of next fiscal year to generate demand?

Just trying to make a logical guess here. My PD is in May, 2011 for EB2I and I am thinking that hopefully I may be able to get current by end of next fiscal year.

Is that too much optimism or am I right in guessing that?

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Provided that a decent spillover is available this year and if the dates move towards end of 2009 or beginning of 2010, and provided from thereon we start moving 2 weeks every month for EB2I, wouldn't CO have to advance the EB2I dates rapidly in the last quarter of next fiscal year to generate demand?

Just trying to make a logical guess here. My PD is in May, 2011 for EB2I and I am thinking that hopefully I may be able to get current by end of next fiscal year.

Is that too much optimism or am I right in guessing that?

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Wow Jonty!!

Long time.. good to see you after such a long time. One of the old timers.. didnt realize you are still around. Thought you got greened long time ago! Bleh...😉

Im with July-2010 Eb2 date and I believe and wish your opinion comes true! 😊

Also from SpecÂ’s comments on 6000 EB2 - visas being used by field offices, isnÂ’t it safe to assume that CO used 15% of the allowed field office quotas ahead of time to avoid any wastage from services centers and now he will utilize the leftovers towards Pending inventory?

V

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Provided that a decent spillover is available this year and if the dates move towards end of 2009 or beginning of 2010, and provided from thereon we start moving 2 weeks every month for EB2I, wouldn't CO have to advance the EB2I dates rapidly in the last quarter of next fiscal year to generate demand?

Just trying to make a logical guess here. My PD is in May, 2011 for EB2I and I am thinking that hopefully I may be able to get current by end of next fiscal year.

Is that too much optimism or am I right in guessing that?

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Wow Jonty!!

Long time.. good to see you after such a long time. One of the old timers.. didnt realize you are still around. Thought you got greened long time ago! Bleh...😉

Im with July-2010 Eb2 date and I believe and wish your opinion comes true! 😊

Also from SpecÂ’s comments on 6000 EB2 - visas being used by field offices, isnÂ’t it safe to assume that CO used 15% of the allowed field office quotas ahead of time to avoid any wastage from services centers and now he will utilize the leftovers towards Pending inventory?

V

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 21,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

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Spec - the total for EB2 is not inline on how the remaining numbers of EB1, EB3 and others were calculated.
EBS2 should it be 21 K + 3 K = around 23K instead of the 18K listed?

Was checking if based on that, the percentages change and what everyone is estimating for movement will change for EB2.

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Originally Posted by srimurthy

Spec - the total for EB2 is not inline on how the remaining numbers of EB1, EB3 and others were calculated.
EBS2 should it be 21 K + 3 K = around 23K instead of the 18K listed?

Was checking if based on that, the percentages change and what everyone is estimating for movement will change for EB2.

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Thanks for pointing out the inconsistency.

Something went wrong copying across the EB2 USCIS figure in that table. You can check this from the original PP presentation.

The Total and therefore the % is correct.

The correct figures are:

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%


The change is highlighted in red.

I've corrected the original post.

Thanks again.

spec

Thanks for that info. What will be the realistic, pessimistic and optimistic date for eb2 india and eb3 india based on these presentation? if you do not want to make any predictions do we assume bad news? :) didn’t mean to put you on appt but actually i did :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Thanks for pointing out the inconsistency.

Something went wrong copying across the EB2 USCIS figure in that table. You can check this from the original PP presentation.

The Total and therefore the % is correct.

The correct figures are:

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%


The change is highlighted in red.

I've corrected the original post.

Thanks again.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

spec

Thanks for that info. What will be the realistic, pessimistic and optimistic date for eb2 india and eb3 india based on these presentation? if you do not want to make any predictions do we assume bad news? :) didn’t mean to put you on appt but actually i did :)

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There's too little data to even begin to calculate what SO might be available, where it might end up and how that might move the dates.

I'm not even trying to make that calculation.