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I suspect it could be from FY2014. It depends on when is he applied his I-485 or porting request.Quote:
Originally Posted by tatikonda
There was already 7k visas allocated to the EB2 & EB3 India together from FY2014 quota.
Please look at this attachment: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attach...0&d=1392156577
I read some where (maybe in this forum) that visa number gets allocated when they issue a RFE on 485.Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
So if a RFE was issued earlier than Oct 1st 2013. it should be from FY2013 Quota ? Correct ??
I am not sure about when RFE was issued, I will find it out and update forum.
btw he is porting from EB3-Eb2.
I don't believe that's true. The USCIS does the RFE process and only when approved "requests" the DOS to assign a visa. If this was inadvertently done and the GC was given without an approved I485, there could be issues.Quote:
Originally Posted by tatikonda
The above calculations was made based on the October'13 Inventory updated on 01Oct2013 and the October13DD updated on 07Oct2013. This year they have allocated these visas between 01-Oct-2013 & 07-Oct-2013 under FY2014 quota and they continued processing the cases till Nov'13 and in some cases like your freinds till now. Please see the quote mentioned in the Oct13 DD:Quote:
Originally Posted by tatikonda
---------
The FY 2013 Employment annual limits were reached prior to the end of September, and no further allocation
of numbers was possible after that time. Offices continued to process Employment cases, submitted them in
the normal manner, and such cases were then held in the Visa Office’s “Pending Demand” file. All eligible
cases were then allocated Employment-based numbers on October 1, 2013, under the FY 2014 annual limits.
----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Viz, I appreciate your response. Please forgive my ignorance.
I see few GC approvals in Jan/Feb 2014, who's PD is not current. How can they get GC if they are not current, that means USCIS might have requested their VISA prior to their approval ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by tatikonda
They could be cross-chargeability or they updated it late or DOS is making exceptions or maybe you are correct. I can't argue against evidence :)
Just ran a query on Trackitt. Found 27 applicants that are EB2I and got their approval between Dec 2013 and Feb 2014. These 27 candidates have PDs starting from Jan 2005. Hence it is possible to get GC when dates are not current.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Dec 2013 - 18 approvals
Jan 2014 - 5 approvals
Feb 2014 - 4 approvals
According to me the numbers were assigned when the dates were current and then approvals came in later. I firmly believe that the annual EB2I quota (~3000) is already used up for FY2014. Below are some numbers of inventory prior to Jan 2009 and after Jan 2004.
Oct 2013 inventory --> EB2I (13375) : EB3I(29879)
Jan 2013 inventory --> EB2I (12181 ) : EB3I(27998)
Decrease in EB2I --> 1194
Porting from EB3I to EB2I --> 1881
Total consumed from EB2I --> 3075
We will see some approvals trickle in as we approach Aug 2014 but these would be very very few.
Gurus
Please move this question to an appropriate Thread. I have a quick question around the Lock box address for I765 and I131 forms. When I see instructions for filing I765 and I131 forms, I see the address to be sent is different (for people living in North Carolina).
The I765 need to be sent to Pheonix Lock Box facility where as I131 seems to be sent to Dallas Lockbox (that is based on the I485 receipt which starts with LIN).
Do we have to send the document to different addresses ? or Shall I send both to Pheonix address ?
JaganQuote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I have a honest question. Why would the USCIS not afford this privilege (of giving annual quota in Oct itself) to EB2C or EB3I ? Is the answer the obvious - spillover.
1. EB2I every time will get spillover. Hence calculation errors don't matter much as EB2I will anyways get much more than 3000.Quote:
Originally Posted by redwood
2. CO would like to be considered as a person who's prediction are correct. For example, He moved dates to June 2008
2.a - because of giving away 3k visas there are only ~3000 pending before June 2008
2.b - If he did not give away those 3k visas then there would have been ~6000 pending before June 2008
I think 2.a makes him look much better than 2.b
Remember that CO also has to ensure no wastage. Hence he needs to move dates far enough to ensure no wastage but also live up to expectations of being close enough to not have too many pending before the date he moves to.
I personally feel that CO has adopted a good strategy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
1. Calculate Supply available in Aug. Lets call it X.
2. Calculate the month until which there is a demand of X pending. Lets call it M.
3. Add one month and move dates to M+1. This will ensure no wastage.
4. Based on porting, he may or may not have demand left at the beginning of next FY.
- If cumulative demand left in Oct prior to M+1 is > 3000 then give out 3k annual quota.
- If cumulative demand left in Oct prior to M+1 is < 3000 (may be 2000) then everyone who was current will get visas. So consume 2k of the annual 3k.
Friends - Header updated.
Basically there are 3 things we looked at:
1. PERM Data for 2014 Q1
2. USCIS 485 Data for 2014 Q1
3. USCIS Performance Data.
#1 & #3 are confirming slowdown in not just PERMs but also in 140 and 485 processing. The question is how does it help or hurt. Clearly for people who are backlogged and have already filed 485 this is good because then that means more visas for them and better likelihood of getting through to Approval.
#2 interestingly doesn't really have much interesting information. mid year 485 data is always tricky because you don't know the flow rate of how many came in and how many approved vs denied etc .. many times applications come and get approved without ever hitting 485 inventory. That's why I generally don't like this report mid year. There is not much there that influenced my mind one way or other.
Good luck with your GC applications!
Where does this land us at the end of FY ?Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Plausible scenario would be Feb/Mar 2009, if you're a bit more conservative, then Jan 2009. Anything beyond March is possible but the numbers say otherwise. We'll just have to wait and see.Quote:
Originally Posted by redwood
redwood - sorry. I don't do manual calculations anymore. I think I will let others opine on your question.Quote:
Originally Posted by redwood
Quick question Gurus... Please move it to a different thread after 1-2 days....One of my friend whose PD is Oct 2008 is expecting to get his GC in next 5-6 months. He passed his Real Estate Sales Associate exam and wishes to start working as an Agent (he will be working on 1099 and not w2) while still working in his main job.
Is this correct and advisable especially since he has NOT got his GC yet? Anyone have experiences/knowledge in this area?
Venkat,Quote:
Originally Posted by venkat
As long as your friend has EAD, he can start to work as an agent and work on 1099 while being on his main job.
Apr bulletin released without change
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...pril-2014.html
Thanks Jagan.
It's very interesting that EB2C as well as EB3ROWMP are moving exactly 1 month per month. CO has truly mastered the art of demand/supply management for visas!
As far as EB2 is concerned the dates will eventually move in Q4 of 2014 i.e. Jul-Sep 2014. So there is nothing other than wait and watch that EB2I can do at this point of time.
Have a great spring break ahead. (At least on the west coast it is next week). Not sure about east coast.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Just revisited the I-485 inventory from January (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...y-2014-Jan.pdf). The EB1 India inventory for October and November, 2013 shows 930 and 1036. If this (scary) trend continues, I will be very pessimistic about spillovers to EB2 India in the future.
About EB1 India, does anyone know what the reason is for a whopping 14-15 fold increase from 2012 to 2013 in the number of EB1 cases?Quote:
Originally Posted by Immigo
Are you familiar with the Kazarian case ? That case made the EB1 researchers to prove 2 step evaluation of their papers. Attorneys and applicants were not familiar with the new process . The K- ruling made a lot of denials in 2011 . It picked up in 2013.Quote:
Originally Posted by axecapone
Can you please site the actual numbers where you see 14-15 fold increase. I don't see it.Quote:
Originally Posted by axecapone
May be I phrased it incorrectly. Basically I was looking at the 485 inventory data. 2012 has a total of 314 for under 1st preference while 2013 has 4492. I was trying to understand this differenceQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Kazarian was for EB1-A/B. The numbers in EB1 India inventory for October and November, 2013 (showing about 1k per month) would likely be due to EB1C. I really hope USCIS takes notice and increases the scrutiny for EB1C (similar to the L1 rejections that are now happening).Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I got it now. Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by axecapone
So there are two things here. The difference you see in the current inventory is simply because of the fact of FIFO (first in first out) processing of current categories. Current categories always will have significant backlog for current year and almost none for prior year. EB1 as a whole is current and so it exhibits the same behavior.
But the second thing to consider is - whether EB1 had different levels of overall demand for 2012 vs 2013? Or at least for EB1-India was there such a thing. I didn't go into those details if indeed there was a difference in overall demand. But just to make sure you understand Kanmani's answer above - she answered the second thing that I mentioned here.
It is important to note that you are seeing an increase in the "Pending" inventory. It is not necessary that the demand is increasing. If the USCIS is not approving petitions then the queue will build up and hence the "Pending" number will increase.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Can someone please tell me when exactly does a petition start showing up as pending in inventory for EB1 candidates ?
1. EB1 candidates usually file I-140 and I-485 together.
2. DO these candidates start reflecting in the pending inventory as soon as they file applications for I-140 and I-485 ?
OR
3. Do these candidates start reflecting in the pending inventory once their I-140 is approved?
"In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory. This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times. However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report."Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
Page 5 of http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...t-response.pdf
Thanks Spectator!
Thanks Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
This makes it clear that the increase in pending EB1C is not bcos of processing delays. Applicants would show up in pending inventory only after I-140 gets approved. Can there be delays after I-140 approval which might be causing delays in giving out GC and hence the pending inventory increase ?
If this is the case, how are there 1036 and 260 applications in November and December 2013 in the latest inventory (EB1 India )? Eb1C does not allow premium processing and I am assuming I-140 adjudication takes more than two months. It doesn't make sense since they are listed by PD. Missing something here?Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
I dont know if this is the correct way to look at it. The way I read inventory is how the demand has been in prior two months before the inventory date since it is more likely to be untouched by uscis. Comparing past inventories to the recent one, it does show an increase in the filings. Correct me if I am wrong.
Not everyone goes for concurrent filing. Just did a trackitt query and found that from Oct 2011 till today there are 494 concurrent and 216 non-concurrent applications for EB1C India candidates.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
So 1/3rd applicants are non-concurrent.
I do believe that most of Oct,Nov,Dec pending numbers that show up in Jan 2014 inventory are non-concurrent filers.
Also EB1A and EB1B can file under PP for I-140 and their I-485 will show up as pending inventory if I140 filed under PP for Nov / Dec. There might be an increase in EB1A and EB1B as well.
So EB1C is completely out of the picture in those Oct - Dec numbers?? That scares me. Do you know how many Eb1 A / B India get approved in a typical year. I was assuming that Eb1C was the major chunk in EB1 India.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jagan01
it usually isQuote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
Indeed EB1C is the major chunk of EB1 India. Prior to EB1C frenzy (i.e. approx 5-6 years back) EB1-India as a whole hardly consumed 2-3K - if that. So we can safely say that EB1A/B India is less than 3K ... more likely 1.5K.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
Overall EB1 India generally comes in at 9-11K per year. In a bad year they will come in at 6-7K e.g. when lots of EB1C denials are happening.
Q, viz,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Here is the puzzle.
gcpursuit pointed out that there were pending numbers in Nov and Dec 2013 in the published Jan 2014 inventory. Where do you think these numbers are coming from. Following are the possible candidates
1. EB1C non-concurrent filers
2. EB1C concurrent filers
3. EB1A EB1B
Let us just consider the month of Nov as there are approximately 1000 pending applications.
Q,
Here are the numbers from dhs website.
FY2008 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
EB1A -- 3,261 3442 4309 2131 3569
EB1B -- 4,274 3432 3990 2602 3394
FY2011 was an exception becos of Kazarian. So considering the other data points, EB1A and EB1B each have approx usage of 3.5k to 4k annually. This would translate to a combined usage of approx 7.5k per year OR 625 per month. I agree with Q that the number of applications from EB1A and EB1B India would be a fraction of this and hence might only be around 3k annually.
I am not saying that the 1k pending for Nov 2013 are all EB1a or EB1B. I would appreciate if someone can throw in some light. Per Kanmani's document, it is clear that numbers show up in I-485 pending inventory only after they are adjudicated. I-140 applications for EB1C are taking much longer these days and the numbers under Nov 2013 would mean that the I-140 was filed in Nov 2013.
After considering the above facts, I feel that the 1000 pending applications for Nov 2013 under EB1I are coming from some of the lucky EB1C that got I-140 approved within 2 months and some are coming from Eb1A and EB1B.
Jagan,
Considering that EB1 A/B India usage is in the 2k to 3k range, the major portion of the 1k number in Nov 2013 has to be EB1C. If the numbers do not consider those I-140 with regular processing times, then the demand is going to a lot more. Are we looking at a very high rate of EB1C filings? Or are we just missing something here? I wish that 1k is the overall demand for EB1-I.
Just extrapolating the 1k figure for one year gives EB1- I demand of 12k which is high when compared to last year's inventory.
Update : I ran a query in trackitt to see if there have been any EB1C I-140 approvals in Nov and Dec 2013 for PDs Nov and Dec, the result was 0. I know trackitt data isnt accurate but I would atleast expect one or two of those lucky cases to show up.
What is the worst case scenario?
My PD is June 19, 2008 and I am yet to file for EAD. I was hoping to get a chance this year after missing by 5 days last year, and it seemed likely till the last inventory.
What is the worst case scenario number for EB-1 from India?
How many EB-1 from India should be filed for me to not get chance this year, too? 5000 above normal, 10000 above?
Does it look like dates may not cross June 2008 right now? Thanks in advance.
civilengineer - relax. As long as your case doesn't have any issues - You should get your GC this year before Sep 30. 99.99% chance if you ask me! Good luck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by civilengineer
I am also first time filer and my PD is June 16,2008.Hope this year will bring our GC's.Quote:
Originally Posted by civilengineer